OK - this is the VC as it actually read directly prior to the time of people switching off of WW (#286):
Witherweaver (3): Xxraptorslayer96, Skumpy, DatSwan
Seprix (2): Witherweaver, SirClemens
stevanzzo (1): Seprix
Awaclus (1): faust
Faust (1): Awaclus
not voting (1): stevanzzo
With approx 10 minutes remaining in the day, both XXR and Skumpy switched to Seprix. Important to remember that they probably genuinely believed they were the L1 and hammer. My theory below makes sense (less weight, but sense still) even without that info.
Given that there are only 2 skum in the game, the normal "most likely D1 wagon has a skum on it" concept, doesn't really have to be a thing. Either way, here are some things I am thinking about:
First:
WW!Seprix doesn't make sense. Why would WW push for Seprix with 10 minutes left? 2/9 skum to start, he didn't need to do that, I just don't see that team anymore.
Second - If WW is Skum:
XXR and Skumpy - They switch, makes sense as both town wanting a lynch to go through and/or if its one of them and WW as skum protecting their partner.
Awaclus - Tried to vote for Seprix, was too late. Was on Town!Faust before that. If anything, I think that means if Awaclus is skum, then it is not Skum!Seprix
Faust - Was town, voted for Awaclus.
Seprix - Originally I was fixated on the fact that Seprix did not get on WW wagon, but in hindsight the only way my argument makes sense is if it was WW!Seprix, which I now do not believe to be a thing. Further, If Seprix is Skum and WW town, why not vote there. Really the only thing that makes sense is Town!Seprix.
SC - Switched to Seprix with last post of day. Currently on WW D2. Could be protecting skum buddy on day 1 and then bussing day 2.
Stev - He was here. He posts in #281 that he was present, and still chooses not to cast a vote. This paints him as Town imo. Reasons - Skum!Stev looks at 2 Town wagons.. he of course votes for one of them. Or, Skum!Stev looks at one Town Wagon and one Skum Wagon, he of course votes to the Town Wagon. However, a Noob!Town!Stev doesn't want to make a bad choice and stays off. I find that very likely.
Third - If Seprix is Skum:
XXR and Skumpy - Makes no sense to me. If Seprix is Skum then they are both Town.
WW - Unless super weird pro play, I do not think WW can also be skum here.
Faust - Same as above.
Awaclus - Could be a fake late vote for town points, but I am not putting a lot of merit in that currently.
SC - Don't know why he would switch off of Town bus as skum onto partner as last post. If Seprix is skum, SC probably Town.
Stev - Same as above.
TLDR:
- Stev is probably Town.
- WW!Seprix very unlikely
- Seprix not switching as skum doesn't make sense if WW was not also skum.
- I think the most likely scenario at this point is WW + [Skumpy/XXR, SC, or Awaclus]
- If WW is town and Seprix is skum, leaning towards Seprix!Awaclus
- If they are both Town, leaning towards Skumpy/XXR!SC
Any which way I no longer like my Seprix vote best. So Vote: WW