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[liopoil]

guys... things like reducing the lynch pool or having an player to lead us is not the valuable. at all. We aren't reducing the number of people we are can lynch, we're reducing the number of players we have to suspect. I highly doubt that knowing for sure a player is town does not help us substantially if we weren't going to lynch that player anyway. It seems that people are saying that it helps one scumhunt. It might make it easier to make reads, but I do not think it actually increases our chance of lynching scum by more than maybe about 2 percent. And an IC leading us similarly does not increase our chance of lynching scum by much either.

However, I am realizing that it actually is theoretically possible for the doc claiming to reduce their chance of getting NKed. I will have to think about that.

[ashersky]

reducing the lynch pool or having an player to lead us is not the valuable. at all.

This is a verifiably false statement.  If that was true, the "Innocent Child" role wouldn't exist or help town or be useful.  In recent f.ds games the IC has had a hugely positive impact on the game for town.

How can you say this?  It is in scum's interest, and only scum's interest, to fight against the creation of an IC in a normal game.  In a multi-ball game, it's even in scum's interest to create an IC to help them kill the other team.

I mean, if you are trying to gain reverse towncred as scum by opposing something that is good for both town and scum, it isn't going to work.

The doctor claim helps town more than scum, but even scum can see value in it for themselves.  And once one scum team is eliminated, or even feels it has the upperhand, maybe they kill off the doctor.  But until then, I think it keep our doctor alive AND helps town during the days.

[yuma]

reducing the lynch pool or having an player to lead us is not the valuable. at all.

This is a verifiably false statement.  If that was true, the "Innocent Child" role wouldn't exist or help town or be useful.  In recent f.ds games the IC has had a hugely positive impact on the game for town.

I think what lio is saying is that it doesn't reduce the lynch pool because if the doc gets up to that point (L-1 with intent to hammer) he will just claim and we won't lynch him. Which is true... except for one little part... we here at f.ds love lynching PRs day1. An early claim means we don't do that and don't have a chance of doing that, thus it reduces the lynch pool and keeps the PR safe from ourselves.

[liopoil]

reducing the lynch pool or having an player to lead us is not the valuable. at all.

This is a verifiably false statement.  If that was true, the "Innocent Child" role wouldn't exist or help town or be useful.  In recent f.ds games the IC has had a hugely positive impact on the game for town.

How can you say this?  It is in scum's interest, and only scum's interest, to fight against the creation of an IC in a normal game.  In a multi-ball game, it's even in scum's interest to create an IC to help them kill the other team.

I mean, if you are trying to gain reverse towncred as scum by opposing something that is good for both town and scum, it isn't going to work.

The doctor claim helps town more than scum, but even scum can see value in it for themselves.  And once one scum team is eliminated, or even feels it has the upperhand, maybe they kill off the doctor.  But until then, I think it keep our doctor alive AND helps town during the days.

what? Have you been reading my posts? Or just the quotes out of context?

ICs are obviously a good thing for town. This is because it is impossible to mislynch an IC. The other benefits are marginal.

As it happens, our doctor ALREADY, without claiming, is impossible to mislynch.  Whether or not the doctor claims does not effect this, as I have said.

So the doctor claiming and becoming IC only gives us the other small benefits, like being able to trust what they say and not having to suspect them. All that this does is make it a bit easier to form reads.

and how can you say that something is a good thing for town and scum? the town and scum wincons are mutually exclusive. If one is "helped more than the other", it is a bad thing for the other.

PPE: Yuma explained it too. Yeah, we've lynched PRs D1 before (never in a game where I was town though I believe). That's ridiculous and should never happen unless scum fakeclaims. If it happens today I will be very disappointed. There's just no excuse for that happening.

[ashersky]

PPE: Yuma explained it too. Yeah, we've lynched PRs D1 before (never in a game where I was town though I believe). That's ridiculous and should never happen unless scum fakeclaims. If it happens today I will be very disappointed. There's just no excuse for that happening.

And yet it does.  Doctors were the D1 lynch of choice for quite awhile, actually.  Plenty of reasons it can happen, too.

Doctor's not around to claim.  Scum quickhammer.  Town derphammer.  Doctor refuses to claim.  Etc.  Etc.

I, for one, do not want to waste my time suspecting people who I don't have to suspect.  You know how awesome it is to spend four IRL days working up a wagon on someone just to get to L-1 and have them claim Doctor without a counterclaim, and the have to scramble to find someone else to lynch so we don't deadline out?  ABSOLUTELY NOT AWESOME is how much.

vote: liopoil for anti-town play.  Not particularly scummier than others at this point, but anti-town is a better lynch than pro-town.

The other option is run everyone up to L-1 as quickly as possible to get this out of the way.

[yuma]

lio it happens.... a lot and often it isn't because of horrible play. It happens because sometimes at the end of a frantic day we rush someone to a lynch w/o giving them a chance to claim. This has actually turned into a valid way to find scum as of late. Not always, but sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

But the real problem is this. If we say that we won't lynch someone unless we give them a chance to claim--out of fear of lynching the doc--we give scum an out. all they have to do is not be online during the last bit of the lynch (this in itself is a bit scummy, but can't be helped because people have real lives) and they won't get lynched because they won't be around to potentially claim Doctor.

Having the doctor claim now alleviates that problem. In fact I think it is great because from that point on, no one can claim anything ever... No more "L-1, I think I might hammer, you had better claim" crap.

[liopoil]

PPE: Yuma explained it too. Yeah, we've lynched PRs D1 before (never in a game where I was town though I believe). That's ridiculous and should never happen unless scum fakeclaims. If it happens today I will be very disappointed. There's just no excuse for that happening.

And yet it does.  Doctors were the D1 lynch of choice for quite awhile, actually.  Plenty of reasons it can happen, too.

Doctor's not around to claim.  Scum quickhammer.  Town derphammer.  Doctor refuses to claim.  Etc.  Etc.

I, for one, do not want to waste my time suspecting people who I don't have to suspect.  You know how awesome it is to spend four IRL days working up a wagon on someone just to get to L-1 and have them claim Doctor without a counterclaim, and the have to scramble to find someone else to lynch so we don't deadline out?  ABSOLUTELY NOT AWESOME is how much.

vote: liopoil for anti-town play.  Not particularly scummier than others at this point, but anti-town is a better lynch than pro-town.

The other option is run everyone up to L-1 as quickly as possible to get this out of the way.

D1 lynch of choice? Not here, for sure.

Not around to claim? should have chosen them to lynch earlier. scum quickhammer? yay, easy correct lynch tommorow. town derphammer? yeah, don't do that. Refuse to claim? Don't do that either.

The point is that the doctor will not be lynched today unless either A) we get conf. scum for tommorow, which is worth it, or B) town plays poorly.

Your scenario where the doctor claims at L-1 and we have to find someone else to lynch has a 1/13 of happening. And that scenario is not THAT much worse than just having the doctor claim now.

@Yuma: fair enough. The solution to this is pretty simple though: actually adhere to a soft deadline. It's our fault for not doing that. Let's actually do that this time. I don't think that this is unreasonable to achieve.

[ashersky]

Having the doctor claim now alleviates that problem. In fact I think it is great because from that point on, no one can claim anything ever... No more "L-1, I think I might hammer, you had better claim" crap.

This is another great point.  Literally the only claims left are VT and scum.  And who claims scum?

Like, maybe we lynch one Fire and we're nearing a bad lylo and the remaining Fire claims to try to team up with town to kill Ice, but even that won't actually happen.

So yuma makes a great point that the "I'm the doctor don't lynch me!" fake claim to buy time and out the doctor goes away and we have no qualms at L-1.

[yuma]

@Yuma: fair enough. The solution to this is pretty simple though: actually adhere to a soft deadline. It's our fault for not doing that. Let's actually do that this time. I don't think that this is unreasonable to achieve.

Good luck... I spent about 5 games trying my hardest to make sure softdeadlines were met. The results? Never meeting them and people suspecting me. So if you want to try it. Go ahead. But don't be surprised when it doesn't work. If you think you know of a way to accomplish it I would love to hear it. But I'll stay skeptical until I see it.

[Robz888]

I am in favor of immediate doctor claim.

I think it makes it harder for scum to shoot the Doctor since the two teams can't coordinate, and IC is very useful... much more than I used to give it credit for

[liopoil]

well, okay. Yeah, I remember those games where you tried to get us to follow a soft-deadline, but it didn't work. And no, I don't have any brand new ideas.

Deadline is monday. Unfortunate, because weekend, and it's already tuesday night and we haven't gotten much progress.

I guess I'd suggest a soft deadline of 6pm Forum Time on Friday. Now, we don't necessarily have to have a lynch by then. What we do need by then, is for someone to get to L-1 with intent to hammer, and that person to claim by that time. If that person claims doctor, we have time to find a different lynch, and that different lynch won't have a chance that this person will claim something. If they don't claim doctor, then, well... we probably just lynch them.

[ashersky]

well, okay. Yeah, I remember those games where you tried to get us to follow a soft-deadline, but it didn't work. And no, I don't have any brand new ideas.

Deadline is monday. Unfortunate, because weekend, and it's already tuesday night and we haven't gotten much progress.

I guess I'd suggest a soft deadline of 6pm Forum Time on Friday. Now, we don't necessarily have to have a lynch by then. What we do need by then, is for someone to get to L-1 with intent to hammer, and that person to claim by that time. If that person claims doctor, we have time to find a different lynch, and that different lynch won't have a chance that this person will claim something. If they don't claim doctor, then, well... we probably just lynch them.

But imagine we meet your soft deadline and have someone at L-1 around 3 p.m. on Friday.  That person claims Doctor around 5 p.m.  The folks that may be around unvote, start thinking about an alternative wagon.  But it's the weekend, and no one is around to make anything happen at that point.

If you want the soft deadline system to work, it needs to be days before the real deadline AND followed.  Like, Thursday morning or something.  But good luck.

I currently see Robz, yuma, and myself as supporting the Doc claiming now.
I see liopoil and Archetype as firmly in the "not now" camp.

Anyone else want to weigh in?

[Voltgloss]

I, for one, do not want to waste my time suspecting people who I don't have to suspect.  You know how awesome it is to spend four IRL days working up a wagon on someone just to get to L-1 and have them claim Doctor without a counterclaim, and the have to scramble to find someone else to lynch so we don't deadline out?  ABSOLUTELY NOT AWESOME is how much.

This is a legitimate concern.  So is the argument that the Doc claiming now actually makes him more likely to survive - during these early days.

The question is, do those benefits outweigh the negatives of the Doctor claiming?  The main one being that, once on scumteam is dead, the remaining scum will absolutely kill off the Doctor.  I mean, why the hell wouldn't they?

It's certainly true that an IC can be a powerful asset, but it can also be a real detriment to town if successfully misled by scum.  Look no further than my own terrible play in M31.  I dunno, maybe everyone who played in mcmc's game came out of that very impressed with the IC role, whereas I am a lot less enamored with it.  :p

[liopoil]

We'd have the weekend, and also most of monday to get a lynch. I doubt we'd deadline out. The real problem is actually getting someone to claim by then.

[Voltgloss]

But the real problem is this. If we say that we won't lynch someone unless we give them a chance to claim--out of fear of lynching the doc--we give scum an out. all they have to do is not be online during the last bit of the lynch (this in itself is a bit scummy, but can't be helped because people have real lives) and they won't get lynched because they won't be around to potentially claim Doctor.

Having the doctor claim now alleviates that problem. In fact I think it is great because from that point on, no one can claim anything ever... No more "L-1, I think I might hammer, you had better claim" crap.

This is also a valid point in favor of the Doctor claiming now. 

[Robz888]

I, for one, do not want to waste my time suspecting people who I don't have to suspect.  You know how awesome it is to spend four IRL days working up a wagon on someone just to get to L-1 and have them claim Doctor without a counterclaim, and the have to scramble to find someone else to lynch so we don't deadline out?  ABSOLUTELY NOT AWESOME is how much.

This is a legitimate concern.  So is the argument that the Doc claiming now actually makes him more likely to survive - during these early days.

The question is, do those benefits outweigh the negatives of the Doctor claiming?  The main one being that, once on scumteam is dead, the remaining scum will absolutely kill off the Doctor.  I mean, why the hell wouldn't they?

It's certainly true that an IC can be a powerful asset, but it can also be a real detriment to town if successfully misled by scum.  Look no further than my own terrible play in M31.  I dunno, maybe everyone who played in mcmc's game came out of that very impressed with the IC role, whereas I am a lot less enamored with it.  :p

Well you got played, but I still think you were a major thorn in our side in that game... as were other virtual ICs, Jorbles and and Ahoppy.

Of course our Doc/IC will die once one of the teams is eliminated, BUT that's not for a while, and an unclaimed Doctor has a significant risk of dying by that point anyway.

[Voltgloss]

Well you got played, but I still think you were a major thorn in our side in that game... as were other virtual ICs, Jorbles and and Ahoppy.

Galz said my play was terrible and I trust his judgment.  I'm not even being sarcastic here in the slightest.

Another issue here is that in this game - unlike the other recent games with ICs in them - we can't possibly get any more ICs.  As Robz says, there were two other ICs/virutal ICs in M31, and it's the presence of multiple ICs that really make things difficult for scum.  Same deal in mcmc's game, where other power roles existed who could have and/or eventually did become ICs.

But here, we get one, and no more than one.  How much is the IC worth when there's literally only one of them in a sea of 13 players?

[ashersky]

I, for one, do not want to waste my time suspecting people who I don't have to suspect.  You know how awesome it is to spend four IRL days working up a wagon on someone just to get to L-1 and have them claim Doctor without a counterclaim, and the have to scramble to find someone else to lynch so we don't deadline out?  ABSOLUTELY NOT AWESOME is how much.

This is a legitimate concern.  So is the argument that the Doc claiming now actually makes him more likely to survive - during these early days.

The question is, do those benefits outweigh the negatives of the Doctor claiming?  The main one being that, once on scumteam is dead, the remaining scum will absolutely kill off the Doctor.  I mean, why the hell wouldn't they?

It's certainly true that an IC can be a powerful asset, but it can also be a real detriment to town if successfully misled by scum.  Look no further than my own terrible play in M31.  I dunno, maybe everyone who played in mcmc's game came out of that very impressed with the IC role, whereas I am a lot less enamored with it.  :p

Well you got played, but I still think you were a major thorn in our side in that game... as were other virtual ICs, Jorbles and and Ahoppy.

Of course our Doc/IC will die once one of the teams is eliminated, BUT that's not for a while, and an unclaimed Doctor has a significant risk of dying by that point anyway.

If the Doctor is NK'ed because we've eliminated a scum team, that'll be sad and all, but WE ELIMINATED A SCUM TEAM.  And that's awesome.

I don't see that as a consideration to worry about here.

[ashersky]

How much is the IC worth when there's literally only one of them in a sea of 13 players?

You ask a lot of questions.  Any answers to offer up?

Also, I think scum!Volt does that way more than town!Volt.  FYI.

[yuma]

Well you got played, but I still think you were a major thorn in our side in that game... as were other virtual ICs, Jorbles and and Ahoppy.

Galz said my play was terrible and I trust his judgment.  I'm not even being sarcastic here in the slightest.

It wasn't. Your reads were kinda bad, but your being IC was completely fine, if not superb. Galz has a very different style of playing IC, one that I was very critical early on in Warriors if you remember... Not everyone has to play the same way.

[Voltgloss]

On the flip side, we do only have one week, which is unfortunately short.  Like, if we had two weeks instead, we could much more easily implement lio's plan.  But we don't have two weeks.  And the Doctor claiming is a time-saving measure.

Has anyone, perchance, looked at the mafiascum plays of this setup to see how they handled the Doctor claiming/not claiming?  And how that worked out for them?  I haven't had time, but I know multiple games are linked in the wiki entry for Fire and Ice.

[ashersky]

Well you got played, but I still think you were a major thorn in our side in that game... as were other virtual ICs, Jorbles and and Ahoppy.

Galz said my play was terrible and I trust his judgment.  I'm not even being sarcastic here in the slightest.

It wasn't. Your reads were kinda bad, but your being IC was completely fine, if not superb. Galz has a very different style of playing IC, one that I was very critical early on in Warriors if you remember... Not everyone has to play the same way.

I'd agree with this.

In M31, your actions as the IC were fine.  You lead town, you had people in line, etc.  What you had wrong were a few assumptions about the set-up (which we're discussing elsewhere) and some terrible reads on scum players, which righted themselves as the game moved forward.  I would say though, that a large part of at least one terrible read was based on a separate terrible read by Galz.

[Voltgloss]

How much is the IC worth when there's literally only one of them in a sea of 13 players?

You ask a lot of questions.  Any answers to offer up?

Also, I think scum!Volt does that way more than town!Volt.  FYI.

I always ask a lot of questions.  And I think they're important questions to consider.  I'm trying to work through them myself.

[ashersky]

How much is the IC worth when there's literally only one of them in a sea of 13 players?

You ask a lot of questions.  Any answers to offer up?

Also, I think scum!Volt does that way more than town!Volt.  FYI.

I always ask a lot of questions.  And I think they're important questions to consider.  I'm trying to work through them myself.

I think town!Voltgloss makes more statements of opinion, though.

[yuma]

Has anyone, perchance, looked at the mafiascum plays of this setup to see how they handled the Doctor claiming/not claiming?  And how that worked out for them?  I haven't had time, but I know multiple games are linked in the wiki entry for Fire and Ice.

reading those games is horrible. Like headache inducing horrible...

the one game I just glanced through (town win) didn't discuss it. One player seems to have been very against it and the town doc was killed night3 (having a successful protection night2). ice and fire shot each other to give town the win...