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Author Topic: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- GAME OVER  (Read 238838 times)

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faust

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2375 on: October 25, 2017, 02:08:25 am »

He's been on 0 correct lynches this game:
Yes and I'm sorry. However it doesn't really hold; when Space was lynched, I was on DatSwan. Counting that as "no correct lynches" is extremely misleading.
He's the only remaining player not on the LL lynch. I don't think all 4 scum put themselves on that not-mafia lynch.
Well maybe scum already knew he was SK, or had strong suspicions.
D4: Space #1855: Goes for a scum team of Iguana/e/Eevee/Faust - I don't think Space places all town in that list
You realize that iguana is on that list?
D5: D4 scum obviously kept the lynch pool open. Bus if needed, but try to steer towards town. That failed. I think Faust/Swan decided going into D5 to push for a common target: RR.
Now that's just theorycrafting. I can pick any two players and look at what they did and afterwards say "I think X/Y decided going into D5 to do exactly what I just read them doing".
D1: I believe this is scum!faust coaching scum!Swan: "You don't need a solid scum read to vote. All you need is to pretend you do."
::)
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faust

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2376 on: October 25, 2017, 02:10:34 am »

Town!Faust questions everything and everyone, obtaining his reads from said questioning. This Faust is non-existant this game.
As said, this is biased by my performance as IC in the last game. I question more as IC. Plus I did not have the time to follow along closely for the majority of the game.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2377 on: October 25, 2017, 02:18:50 am »

It just gets thinner and thinner from here.

D5: In post #2153 (faust's reread of Space), he finds Space breadcrumb'ing watching him N1 - something none of us caught and Space never pointed to. In public. It's possible town!faust just happened to stumble on that - it's also possible scum!Space told the team that they had breadcrumbed it D1, and faust knew where to look.
If Space had intended that as a breadcrumb, they would have pointed it out, as the only reason to breadcrumb in the first place is for towncred.

Possible scum slip in faust's #2183 (reread on me), where he suggests knowledge that Eevee is town (I called this out in #2188)
::)

The following was posted -before- town knew what slots were in the Barracks (e's claim), but scum did - It suggests knowledge of what was in the Barracks:
I don't see it? I mean it's clear that Barracks are more likely to contain weaker roles because they only contain roles that nobody else got. It's also unclear what the insinuation is here... does scum!me know what's in the Barracks before he decides to bid? I wish I had that kind of precognition.

As a follow up, Town!Faust definitely thought Barracks was a good slot to bid for, so why didn't he go for it?
More nonsense. I mean I also think Gunsmith is a good slot to bid for. Why didn't I go for it? Duh, because I'm ranked 15 and in all likelihood someone else will already have it.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2378 on: October 25, 2017, 02:27:08 am »

I mean I don't know why town!Galz goes through the trouble of rereading RR in detail when Teproc already made a pretty damn compelling argument for why RR isn't scum. It's just an upping of activity. I won't bother to reread Galzria because I already know PoE dictates him to be scum. I don't think any reread I make based on that biased perspective is going to convince anyone. So the best thing I can do is convince people that I am town.

Galzria offers a long list of reasons, one flimsier than the next. The only ones that do make sense is where he pitches something based on RR being likely town. Of course if Galzria assumes that RR is town, he must concluse that I am scum. But still he bothers finding other arguments, as if he needed to convince himself of something he already knows. I know. I'm not going all out in a flurry of posts trying to make sure that my voice is the only one heard. I know Teproc will reread everything and make up his mind, and I know that if I cannot convince Teproc that I'm town and we lynch someone else today, it's game over. A no lynch, Teproc kill scenario won't do me any favors.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 1
« Reply #2379 on: October 25, 2017, 05:49:30 am »

iguana/Space/Swan/Galz

Swan (4/8) => #1 => Poisoner
Space (16) => #3 => Watcher
Galz (42) => #4 => "Poisoner (fail)"
iguana (23) => #10 => The Barracks (fail)

Makes sense as far as the bids are concerned, scum might even assume that "scum wouldn't do ALL Lost numbers" could go in their favor in the end. Galz is obviously some PR here... it's a little weird to kill Eevee is Galz is a roleblocker, but the non-Roleblocker situations are also slightly weird for N1, so I don't know. Rolecop is possible, given scum's accuracy at hitting PRs after N1 (Arch/chairs especially, perfect timing there).

DAY 1

The Poisoner thing... at the risk of annoying Galz to death, here's how it goes
Galz says people in support of vigs (which he supposed to be a majority) should not be opposed to Poisoner shooting N1 (ignoring the fact that Poisoners are decidedly not vigs, among other things).
But then he hurriedly adds that he, personally, is not in favor of a poisoner shootings.

The question then is: why bring this up ? What does this add, what does this do for Galz's wincon ? If he's town, I guess he can gauge reactions to it ? Reactions to theory talk are generally not worthy of much, but you know.
If he's scum, why do this ? Well, scum, I think, did not intend to have iguana claim on D1. They had thought about how bad it would look in a massclaim and assigned their Goon to the role of Poisoner fakeclaim, but I don't think they intended to claim on D1... because there's no upside from them. The result of this was an automatic scum lynch on D3. Granted, a non-Poisoner lynch, but still.

The direct result of Galz's actions is what ? Muddying the waters on the consensus that a town poisoner would not shoot. At least one guy is... well Galz will insist he was not against it, which he does say - repeatedly, but raising the question (which literally no one, no one else did in the entire game despite Galz's insistence that poisoner shooting should be a majority opinion since people like vigs). Which, for someone who's very much against something, he sure obsesses over making sure people know it's a valid opinion to be for it. It's very possible that scum!Galz genuinely thought he could save iguana from a lynch D3 with this argument, and realized by everyone's reaction on D2 that this was not going to be the case.

It's also very possible that this is just very bad play from town!Galz, and I have to get past it. But it annoys me tremendously, and Galz is not faust. He never did anything as nonsensical (for town) as this in M105. Because again, as town, why bring it up again on D2 ? What's the upside ? How does it help your wincon ?

Getting that out of the way...

#411: Galz criticizing a Swan vote by RR, and later - Chainsaw Defense - votes RR for it. In this scenario, Swan is the only scum who had a remote chance of ever getting lynched D1 (he had two votes at this point).

#465: Galz mentions looking at 105 to look at RR's response to being lynched here. Townie, I think scum might refer to that game but they surely don't actually go look at it (granted RR is a short reread and scum is SK!hunting but still), and probably don't bother lying about it.

#477: Swan using RR's responses to Galz as an argument for scum!RR. I think, when you have a very argumentative scumbuddy (who's good at it I mean), it's always tempting for their partners to do this.

In the "Galz annoys me" department, he insists that the case on gkrieg was about exclamation points, which was simply false. Null though.

#547: Space thinks Galz is townie, which is quite something given the very few reads Space gave out this game.

#569: Space is back to null on Galz. That's more like it.

#578: Galz essentially saying "go ahead and lynch LL, it's a good case, but I'd rather not be on wagon because I want to look good post-flip". I'm barely paraphrasing here.

DAY 2

So, the LL bid thing (this starts in day 1 but whatever).
Galz is at #4 with a bid of 42, LL claims to be a #6 with a bid of 16. Scum!Galz knows this is false because of Space, but what about town!Galz ? In order for it to be true, there would need to be a maximum of 5 unique numbers total and 16 would be the lowest double-number. Something like

1. 4
2. 8
3. 15
4. 42
5. some non-Lost number
6. 16
7. 16

Is that really that unlikely ? I mean, the only Lost number that garnered multiple bids in reality in 23, and one of them didn't get any bid at all. I don't know. I can see how that looks unlikely to Galz, but is it really worth saying ? I thought for sure it was outing Galz as a town!PR at the time, which... I guess if we believe the "bid for Poisoner at #4", then sure, but the more I think about it the less that makes sense to me. Galz, if there's anything you want to respond to, it's that: your bid for Poisoner at #4. At that slot, you know there's at least one scum ahead of you, and you know they're going for Poisoner, no ? You can also answer why LL's 16 bid semeed so suspicious to you. I mean you answer what you want, but those are the ones that actually interest me.

Much like Swan, Galz is on a bit of a "How is LL alive ?" line. Noteworthy that faust (correctly) calls that nonsense. Noteworthy because of Swan, not because I happen to think it's a horrible argument. Galz says it's a small part of the case against LL, but it looks like it's about half of it (the other half being the lie/mistake about the bid).

You know, as much as LL did flip scum, I still dislike everything about that lynch. But, well, he was scum, so I guess I can't say anything about it.

#1022 is a puzzling one. I vote Glaz, he asks me if I think he killed WW. What ? Galz, what was that about ?

#1035 Swan kinda siding with me in the Poisoner thing.

This whole thing does raise the question of why I'm alive if Galz is scum. I mean, I'm very capable of changing my mind drastically as the game goes on, but I don't rememebr how much I did that in M105, so I don't know if Galz is aware of that.

The Candidate claim. Null as hell, as Galz clearly does this as town and thus wants to imitate it as scum. Also there's actually very little risk of death: either LL is the SK and gets lynched, or he's a town JK and very likely to JK Galz as a result, which is also nice for scum because now they know where the JK is most likely going, and it's not on the Poisoner or the killer.

Robz, if a scum ROleblocker gets Jailkept, does their Roleblock still goes through ?

YOU KEEP SAING WE SHOULDN'T TELL IGUANA NOT TO SHOOT.

Yes ? This is true right ?

If the option is "iguana doesn't shoot period" or "iguana does whatever", arguing for the latter means you're open to the possibility of town!iguana shooting. I'm saying you shouldn't. Stop trying to make me pass for a dumb five-year old, thank you very much.

Yes, I'm open to the possibility. That's the point. You're not, and that's ridiculously scummy. I don't think he SHOULD, but I, nor you, nor anybody else can tell him what to do with his power. And if he DOES chose to shoot, I'm not going to rush off and lynch him.

Just putting this out there: re the Poisoner thing. At this point it's a bit of a desperate cause, so maybe scum!Galz would just give up, but that sure is a good viewpoint for sucm to hold. At this point, iguana hadn't said whether or not he poisoned N1. What if he did ? Really it surprises me he didn't: yeah it looks terrible because the guy he poisoned turned out to be an IC, but why not say it and have a very small chance at survival the next day ? Maybe because it got Galz off this argument where he looks absolutely terrible (since now LAL applies and it's all a moot point), in my totally unbiased opinion.

Galz agrees with the quicklynch, which I do think scum would agree with. Since the PoTi was town, it did turn out to be advantageous to scum, sorry about that. I don't think agreeing with it is scummy, but disagreeing would have been somewhat townie.

Now D4. I'll post this so Galz can respond to stuff if he wants, and say right now that, though I do stand by my statement somewhere in D4 that Galz was by far the scummiest player in the game, the first 3 days combined weigh less than D4 alone, so we'll see how that looks.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2380 on: October 25, 2017, 07:21:04 am »

#1257 : Lylo math. I had actually done that in the Masons QT... and somehow messed it up, thinking we did have a mislynch to give still. Now, the scumteam can safely assume town will figure it out (this scenario has town!faust if nothing else), so there's no cost in pointing it out. Having the whole process there is slightly townie.

Galz's approach to the Masons claim is townie. In general I'd say Galz started being super townie on D4 (general play I mean), which... I can see as town, actually. Being at lylo certainly helps town focus. Scum actually gets scummier at lylo in general I think, but scum!Galz specifically is good at that (late game survivor scum I mean).

#1303: Townie post. My reaction to the LyLo news was also "well done, mafia", and I don't know that I'd dare post it as scum, if only because it will look super self-congratulary afterwards/to the mods. I guess the complaining about balance is slightly townie too (see: O), though rather beside the point.

Space claiming, which is worth talking about because of the targets. We actually know for sure that they were telling the truth N3 (targeted Galz)because of Eevee. N1 faust, N2 Galzria. The two scum candidates ! Scum Watcher wants to catch PRs, which targeting faust is good for. Targeting your teammates can certainly be good too, though PRs that caught scum kind of reveal themselves anyway. The more I think about it, the less I think I can get much for it. I think Space made sure to have targets that made sense for a town!Watcher too, and it's thus kinda hard to assess much re: faust and Galz from it.

#1380: Galz seems doubtful scum would ever take PotI, which makes me wonder why he was ok with quicklynching D3. Galz ?

#1403: Thinks faust's play doesn't make much sense as scum. Not the most convenient take for scum, though it's still early and he can walk it back (and indeed will).

#1448: Tough on RR for not doing the work (re: Masons), which is townie.

#1463: Space surprised by people townreading Galz.

Galz apparently loves accusing people who think he's scum of "bias". It's very annoying. No one was born with an irrational hatred of people whose usernames start with a G, you know.

#1549: Bemoaning the absense of a Dayvig during the faust v Masons thing. Townie.

#1562: Very hedgy reads post, but... in a townie way. Like, "ugh, I don't know" rather than Space's "these people have done X and Y. Bye."

#1633: Galz says he almost bid 97 both games. Why did you end up not doing it ?

#1643: Like my "lynching among the VTs" plan, which is pretty decent for scum here, 2 scum/2 town, though the Poisoner is in there.

#1653: After I ask him who he likes lynching the most among the VTs, his answer : Swan>RR>faust. That's quite a thing.

Right right, there's this whole argument re:Swan's bidding strategy, which I still don't think holds up, but... well there's the whole shraeye strategy of having a bad case on your partners, but I don't think that really applies here. I do believe Galz thinks it's a good case regardless of alignment, and it's a case on the player scum least wants to lynch. Now, we're still early in day 4, and no one is voting for DatSwan, so maybe Galz hopes faust is just getting lynched without his help and he can do whatever (this is all before O and I say we don't want to lynch faust), and he's also not voting, but... still.

#1684: If we're going specifically for Poisoner: Swan>RR
If we're just going for scum: e

Now he's leaving doors open here, and granted it's one scum out of three only, but he's in first position and it's the worst scum to lynch.

So why would scum!Galz do this here ? Well, first of all he's not voting yet. Also, it's possible scum assumed the Watcher/Tracker pairing would be left alone, in which case Galz only has Swan as a possible bus. But it's such a terrible bus...

#1689: "Anyway you won't lynch me" after I vote for him, which is strange especially given...

#1701: "This is how it ends". Granted, it's dispiriting to have half the remaining townies voting against you at lylo. I get that. It's also possible Galz thinks "well, better me than Swan" ? Voting for me certainly isn't a winning strategy for Galz, regardless of his alignment, which he'll soon realize.

#1711: Galz's lynchpool suddenly has Space in it rather than RR. Swan still in first place too. This is kinda scummy I think ? Galz thinks he's going down, so he includes partners ? Nah, it's just, again, weird, because if he thinks he'll flip that's the most obvious fake bus in history.

#1714: Swan is not exactly panicked by Galz's (relative) freakout.

#1715: Galz presents a case for a Swan/Space/iguana/e team, reiterates that Swan is his preferred lynch.

#1716: Realized voting me is not a winning strategy. Votes Swan (1) instead.

#1743: Space hedges on Galz, the Swan paragraph is mostly dedicated to disputing Galz's bidding case on him.

#1746: Space maybe implying Galz is scum for having a perfect voting record ? Unsure.

#1752: Swan indulging in Space/Galz theories.

#1795: I ask about Galz's reactions to the Masons voting him, Swan says he's reconsidering and now thinks Galz is scum.

More me/Galz bickering ensues.

#1826: Swan votes Galz. Not sure if he knew I had just unvoted, might have been a PPE.

#1841: After O makes a Space case, Galz switches to Space. A better bus, certainly. Don't know that he has to bus there though. He's not in as much danger (the only vote left on him is by his scumbuddy)... I mean O is specifically making a case on Space so that's what's on the table, and it's not the worth for scum, but why does scum!Galz not make the effort at this exact moment to make a case on, say, RR ?

#1848: Swan insists on Galz being the Poisoner. Same question as above really.

#1855: Whole post of Space arguing with Galz, ends up proposing a iguana/faust/Eevee/e team. Unlike Galz, I don't think it's that outlandish for scum to propose a full town scumteam (yes faust iguana is in there but this is D4, you can't very well propose a scumteam that doesn't include flipped scum you know), but... well this is a mistake on scum!Space's part really. faust is an unlikely lynch, e could maybe happen but is not as good since he's poisoned: RR is who you should be going for. But the same really applies if faust is scum instead of Galz, so. I think Space was making a strong effort at imitating what their town self would do, and didn't realize the lynch dynamics were not in their favor with this line, regardless of who the 4th scum is.

#1893: Galz votes e, then quickly unvotes remembering Eevee's no result on him N1 (making e not the Poisoner unless Eevee is scum). Eh. Gets him off Space I suppose, but he was still alone there anyway.

#1903: Space voting faust. As I said earlier, a mistake I believe, in any scenario though.

#1906: Galz follows Space on faust. Ok, I mean, maybe. After all, you only need RR to vote. It happened that he didn't, but I guess it's not such a clear mistake for this scumteam. It's not the easiest path to victory probably, but it's a possible one.

#1915: Insisting on Galz, but opening himself to vote faust. In case RR votes, sure.

#1958: The good ole' Space unvote from faust onto Galz. It actually makes sense for this scumteam: RR had just voted Swan, and Space would certainly much rather bus Galz than Swan. Given that RR's vote on Swan was qualified with "for now", I do think scum!Space should stay on faust here to force RR to eventually chose between faust and... Space maybe ? Whomever really. The risk is making RR IC-ish I suppose, but the upside is you almost certainly win, so.... ? Instead this line is basically saying "well, ok, we've lost today, let's try again tomorrow".

#1968: Galz switches to Space. In line with the above really, essentially giving up for the day, which is reasonable now that Space has done so. A bit strange that Swan ends up on Galz given that Space is probably a better bus (since Galz is likely a RB). Except, right, Swan was going for no lynch. No belief in that from Galz here, which is again a fatal mistake from this scumteam given faust's absence... though I don't know how easily Swan and Galz get away with that on the next day. We do have to lynch specifically the Poisoner though, and it's essentially 50% there, so not that bad.




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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2381 on: October 25, 2017, 07:26:53 am »

D5 is towny from Galz, as expected.

Essentially, this scumteam misplayed D4 pretty badly. They did some heavy bussing early on hoping it wouldn't stick (that part worked), then pushed faust, and when that fizzled out, they just kinda gave up. They never opened the door for RR, betting on faust all the way through. It's very possible for this to have happened.

On the other hand, the faust scumteam... I think they played to their outs fairly well. It was unfortunate for them that faust was somewhat absent very late in the day, maybe. They bet on Galz, and Galz looked like a good bet for a while thanks to us, but they could never get the other townies there and O eventually convinced me to follow him on Space.

Though I find Galz's play scummier than faust in the first 3 days... I just think the second scenario is much more likely. I don't see Galz/Space/Swan messing D4 that way, especially with how active Galz was on that day.

Hmmm. The thing that holds me back right now is that Poisoner bid. Galz, when you get here, can you explain your thought process there ? Also interested in RR's opinion on this, since I'd need to convince him if I decide on Galz.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2382 on: October 25, 2017, 08:18:14 am »

I've also been overlooking some recent stuff. Like, e failed to block scum.

Robz, if a town JOAT uses his 1-shot roleblock on a scum roleblocker who is targeting him as well as performing a night kill, does the kill go through ?

I've been assuming no, but I guess I should make sure.

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2383 on: October 25, 2017, 08:29:32 am »

e:

- did not think Galz was scum
- thought Space, DatSwan and faust were scummy
- did not block DatSwan
- barely even mentions RR and Eevee in the voting phase of D4

I mean it's not impossible that he blocked Eevee or RR. It's less likely than him roleblocking faust though.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 1
« Reply #2384 on: October 25, 2017, 08:53:42 am »

Robz, if a scum ROleblocker gets Jailkept, does their Roleblock still goes through ?

In this scenario both the Roleblocker and the Jailkeeper are trying to block someone, and the the person the Jailkeeper is trying to block is the Roleblocker so we have a clear conflict. Roleblocking conflicts are resolved in favor of the Roleblocker, then the 1-Shot Roleblocker, and lastly, the Jailkeeper.

So the Roleblocker would successfully block in your scenario, even if jailed.

Namaste.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2385 on: October 25, 2017, 08:56:30 am »

I've also been overlooking some recent stuff. Like, e failed to block scum.

Robz, if a town JOAT uses his 1-shot roleblock on a scum roleblocker who is targeting him as well as performing a night kill, does the kill go through ?

I've been assuming no, but I guess I should make sure.

The kill would go through. The 1-Shot Roleblocker has been blocked by the full Roleblocker, who gets precedence over the 1-Shot Roleblocker. The 1-Shot Roleblocker has not blocked the kill--the full Roleblocker has prevented him from doing so.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2386 on: October 25, 2017, 08:59:21 am »

Oh, well ok then. e probably did block correctly, this just absolutely means scum has a full roleblocker. WHich is perhaps slightly more likely in the Galzria scenario, but not as decisive as the e thing. Thanks !
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2387 on: October 25, 2017, 09:00:38 am »

Well, not "absolutely" but very very likely.

It does also mean Eevee's tracking probably does clean RR anyway. It's entirely possible people have figured this out already and I just missed it, sorry if that's the case.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2388 on: October 25, 2017, 09:06:20 am »

Actually: it means faust is almost certainly a roleblocker if scum. Galz could still not be.

Re: faust, I guess he could have the slot Swan claimed and have gone for Rolebocker from there. And iguana really did go Redirector ? But no, because Swan claimed to have gone for Barracks and failing before e did, so they clearly did go for Barracks.

So I guess if faust is scum, he was just interetested in Redirector and either had that as his VT fakeclaim early on or decided later that it would look plausible because of his early interactions with gkrieg on the subject ?
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2389 on: October 25, 2017, 09:11:13 am »

Yeah, Eevee's result is pretty trustworthy. Because e is so likely to roleblock Swan, any scumteam has to roleblock him. A shame he chose to track RR who could be semi-cleared by interactions anyway.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2390 on: October 25, 2017, 09:29:41 am »

Though given that they knew he wasn't roleblocked, they might have just made DatSwan made the two kills, so Eevee can't clear anyone anywya.

This is all irrelevant though.

Waiting for Galz: re his Poisoner bid, mostly.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2391 on: October 25, 2017, 09:53:43 am »

Actually: it means faust is almost certainly a roleblocker if scum. Galz could still not be.
Doesn't Eevee's result on RR indicate that he was not roleblocked? Or is there no difference between no result and no target in this game? I feel like this was answered somewhere....
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2392 on: October 25, 2017, 10:07:15 am »

Actually: it means faust is almost certainly a roleblocker if scum. Galz could still not be.
Doesn't Eevee's result on RR indicate that he was not roleblocked? Or is there no difference between no result and no target in this game? I feel like this was answered somewhere....

It hardly matters because I don't see why you'd roleblock Eevee over e anyway.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2393 on: October 25, 2017, 10:34:31 am »

Actually: it means faust is almost certainly a roleblocker if scum. Galz could still not be.
Doesn't Eevee's result on RR indicate that he was not roleblocked? Or is there no difference between no result and no target in this game? I feel like this was answered somewhere....

It hardly matters because I don't see why you'd roleblock Eevee over e anyway.
I suppose there is a point it that.

Another question: Why would scum claim VT as the Roleblocker? Roleblocker's a perfectly safe claim.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2394 on: October 25, 2017, 11:29:23 am »

This was my thought process at the time:

Claimed:
LL: Bid 16, Position 6
Galz: Bid 42, Position 4

If I'm Unique, then:
- A) There are 3 Unique Lost Numbers ahead of me.
- B) 16 would need to be out, meaning 3 of: 4, 8, 17 & 23 would need to have unique guesses
- C) Based on votes from last time, that feels highly unlikely, although yes, possible.

If I'm not Unique, then:
- A) I must be a Lost Double. It's conceivable that there's another Lost Double ahead of me, but again highly unlikely.
- B) There would need to be a maximum of 3 Unique guesses (Lost and Non), and there would need to be no other Lost Doubles.
- C) This is all crazy unlikely.

I guess... The fact is, I AM 4 with a guess of 42. That means there's probably 3 Unique Lost guesses ahead of me. That means 16 is probably a double, with 1 potential unique non lost ahead of me... And then LL rolled the better of the two tied spots.

There being 3 Unique Lost numbers ahead of me seems unlikely. But it's either that or I'm the only Lost Double with 3 Unique Lost/Non Lost ahead of me. Neither make sense, but one must be true.

For LL to be telling the truth, if the second scenario were true, there could be no non-lost doubles, and 16 would need to be the first Lost Triple. All of that combined is far less likely than:

For LL to be telling the truth, if the first scenario were true, then there are a total of 4 Unique Lost votes (including mine), but only a maximum of 1 Unique Non-Lost vote. 16 would then be a Lost Double, allowing him a bid of 6. It's possible there are no Unique Non Lost here too - although again, unlikely.

-----
In regards to your question regarding bids, I'm not sure I follow? I assumed, yes, that there were scum above me. I did not know however if there were 1, 2 or 3 of them, nor which positions. I knew that one of them took Poisoner (hence my disappointment at not getting to take part in that discussion D1 - I wanted to better feel out if that player was townie or scummy), but I didn't know alignment. Once Iguana claimed, I was certain that he was in fact the Poisoner, because his claim and bid made mine make sense - that didn't mean he was town or scum though. I was terrified of the idea that he was SK though, with access to the Candidate thread. I didn't think he would start poisoning N1 in this case, but I did think he could very quickly end game us if one or two candidates died to other means. This is why he would've been my N1 investigation target if I had received it.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2395 on: October 25, 2017, 11:59:34 am »

I'm saying why did you go for Poisoner in the first place ?
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2396 on: October 25, 2017, 12:00:58 pm »

And you just described the obvious re: LL, not why you thought that was sufficiently unlikely to softclaim (and claim in the Candidates QT).
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2397 on: October 25, 2017, 12:05:50 pm »

And you just described the obvious re: LL, not why you thought that was sufficiently unlikely to softclaim (and claim in the Candidates QT).

I guess I'm misunderstanding your question then. I thought you were wondering what my thought process was, assuming I only have my own knowledge, in deducing that LL was not telling the truth - ie. Why I questioned his claim with my solo knowledge.

I think I'm still unclear on what you're asking exactly then, if not that.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2398 on: October 25, 2017, 12:08:52 pm »

I am asking that, and what you describe does not result in "well then LL is lying". It results in "for LL to be telling the there needs to be only 5 unique numbers". To go from that to "then LL is lying" seems like quite the jump to me.

I'm asking this because if you're zscum, there is no jump: you know LL is lying because of Space's bid.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 6
« Reply #2399 on: October 25, 2017, 12:09:07 pm »

I'm saying why did you go for Poisoner in the first place ?

I looked at who bid it and from where in the first game. It was won out of my position of 4 for scum by WW. I considered Gunsmith here, but I thought I had a decent chance at Poisoner this game based on bids last game and I would MUCH rather prevent scum from having it then get Gunsmith myself.

I generally consider that I'm a likely candidate (ha) to be NK'd, and thus taking a results receiving role is less to my liking.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20
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