So now the scumteams that are actually plausible. RR, since I'm now assuming you're town (for better or worse, unless faust somehow convinces me of the contrary), I'd appreciate if you read and responded to this.
iguana/Space/Swan/faust
Bids:
Swan (4/8) => #1 => Poisoner
Space (16) => #3 => Watcher
iguana (23) => #10 => Barracks (fail)
faust (3) => #15 => Two-Shot Redirector (fail)
Numbers make sense (3 can end up quite high, not #1 but scum!faust doesn't want to be the poisoner himself anyway, too likely to attract town PRs), I kinda think faust's claim is truthful in this scenario too. Which means no Roleblocker, which means the missing kill on N1 is either
a) gkrieg redirecting messing LL up
b) LL shooting WW
c) LL not shooting
Or not, whatever, I guess I can't trust that faust did go for redirector, it's a safe claim for scum at that point anyway with gkrieg having flipped.
Now for the reread. This will be less detailed, because
a) Even with a semi-active faust at some points, there's infinitely more content.
b) For this scumteam, scum never got under pressure in any way before D3. That doesn't make D1-2 irrelevant, but much less than in the RR scenario (and the same applies to the Galz scenario, though Galz had slightly more pressure than faust).
faust's day 1 theory talk does make me think he went for Redirector (regardless of alignment), which is slightly townie (because the absence of a Roleblocker makes some of the scenarios for N1 a little weird, as well as Eevee surviving N4). As for Poisoner, faust is the only one to correctly assess the possibility of scum fakeclaiming, but I don't think that's indicative: faust is smart regardless of alignment, and would feel fine pointing it out as scum because I don't think that changes much to what town does here re: iguana on D3.
D1 has a DatSwan vote from faust at #534, not a dangerous one though, given DatSwan's candidate status. faust moves off pretty quickly too.
Some interactions with Space re: the RR wagon, not very indicative either way.
Generally this is null-ish play from faust. The only thing against him is the lack of a strong case to push, he does suspect RR quite a bit, then ends up on IDPTG. Actually RR and faust are the source of the RR wagon, which is kinda funny, since RR was just putting LL at L-1 and faust had been pushing LL for a while. Don't see it as indicative of much though.
faust actually sides with me v Galzria during D1 (well, he sides against Galz in any case). I want to say it's scummy because town!faust and town!me tend to be at each other's throat, but well, that was early D4.
Yeah, going into D4 faust is just null to me. Maybe slightly scummy, but not by much.
Then there's the whole faust v Masons thing. The thing is: in terms of meta it's townie, but it's also very much in scum!faust's advantage to do this. Though, I guess... I was thinking the main danger was scum being able to fakeclaim Barracks, but they never had that possibility open since iguana failed to get them (I'm assuming Swan's claim is true, because it simply makes sense as a failed scum bid, and we know scum failed at least one bid). I suppose me claiming before Swan did not change much if Swan claimed truthfully anyway. So if scum!faust does this, it's for the towncred. I don't think it actually helps a Masons conspiracy theory to make us claim early, the best way to go about that is to go "well we let the Masons dictate everything and things fit well, must be that the Masons are scum".
Also faust is not the Poisoner. Making it him v whoever townie they want to lynch is not necessarily a bad plan here. It almost worked too, but more on that, well, now.
So, #1733 again, we have Swan saying faust is "quite clearly" scum but also saying the simplest explanation for poisoner is RR.
#1743: Space re:faust focuses on "he's not the poisoner".
So this is the line for the scumteam, but who are they lynching ? Given that O and I are on Galz, that's the obvious answer, but they're not pushing that yet. Not that they're pushing much, they're watching what town does first. So far, things are going well for this scumteam: town is divided on faust so that's paying off.
#1747: SpaceMcHedge reads, where they repeat faust is non-Poisoner and everyone else is in the lynchpool save for the Masons and Qvist.
#1763: faust says lynching based on bids is "completely bogus". I'll point out here that my reasoning was that lynching Lost numbers should give us 2/3 at least with a {Space, Galz, Swan} lynchpool, which turned out to be entirely correct. I'm pointing this out because yes, I'm petty and I want to to rub it in faust's face if he's town, but also because scum!faust has to be somewhat worried about this line of reasoning. It leaves Galz as the only possible mislynch if town agrees with me, which should work (and it almost did, if Galz is town), but it makes more sense for scum!faust to resist this line of reasoning than town!faust. Mostly because town!faust has no arguments against this other than "well why didn't we claim bids D1 then" which would be irrelevant even if it made a lick of sense.
#1767: To be fair, faust also calls my Galz vote lazy, which... as formulated, it really was. It was the result of discussion in the Masons QT which I didn't care to transcribe and as a result, yes, it lookesd very lazy for the situation.
#1826 Swan votes Galz. The natural mislynch target here for scum.
Unfortunately for scum, O unvotes at #1837 and says he wants to lynch Space. Which... well if this is the scumteam, this is where it goes all wrong for them. Galz follows suit immediately... if O is able to convince me (he hasn't yet), that means Galz is all of a sudden very difficult to lynch, and the whole "lynch the Lost numbers" thing is pretty bad for scum. So
#1873 faust has a lynchpool of {Space, Swan, RR}. I do think at this point scum wants to either find a way to still lynch Galz or lynch RR. People haven't taken strong stances on RR really, so you could convince town to go there.
#1884: Eevee voting RR.
#1893 Galz voting e, the unvoting. This does move him off Space, which makes the field open for scum, but all of the options look tough. RR and Galz - both with one townie sitting on - are still the leading ones I think, but the water are somewhat muddied, and non-Poisoner bussing has to look like a very viable option now.
#1903: Space votes faust. Assuming they go down, polishing interactions ? I mean, if Space is bussing it's gotta be on faust, but I'm a little surprised they're not going for Galz there.
#1906: Galz follows Space on faust. If faust is a Redirector it's kinda the same between him and Space for a bus, but if he's a Roleblocker scum would much rather get Space bussed. Regardless, faust is still a hard sell for town without the masons.
#1915: Big Swan post.
RR=> "simplest explanation" for Poisoner
e => Nah
Space/Eevee => Maybe one of them is scum, maybe none.
faust=> Hedge
Galz => Scum
Lynch preferences: Galz > faust/RR > e/Eevee/Space
Which makes sense here. Galz is the ideal scenario and the most likely mislynch, it's nice to have the door open on RR... faust is the bus of choice here possibly because scum is simply hoping that the Masons won't budge and it'll result in a lynch Galz by default. It wasn't far off either... had I convinced O to switch to Galz rather than the reverse, that works out for them.
#1917: faust votes RR, then immediately changes his mind (because of Masons not hammering) and votes Swan. Well that doesn't make a ton of sense (for scum!faust I mean). Especially since faust only posts once after that. Leaving your faust on RR is, I think, not as good as leaving it on Galz, but reasonable...
The only way I can understand it for scum!faust is that he just realized after his RR vote that they were just not getting a mislynch today, so he left his vote on Swan for ideal interactions in case he got lynched. A bold choice, not impossible though.
Also possible: a hope for no lynch. I don't think scum!faust seriously thinks that's likely though, but that's how Swan ended up playing it.
Swan continues to push Galz during this late period after myself and Qvist have voted Space. The writing's on the wall really, so I guess Swan is just covering for his no lynch hopes of e never hammering.
D5
As I said earlier (both in the Masons QT and in the thread I think), my expectations going into this day were as follows:
- we were going to lynch Swan
- if faust was scum, he was not going to bus
- if Galz was scum, he was going to bus
Both conformed to those expectations, which is a bit of a problem now.
Swan went for RR, faust never followed but defended Swan and particularly argued that RR and Swan couldn't be scum together (true) which meant Swan was town because RR was so scummy.
Don't think I need to explain how that's practical to scum in the most basic sense, but really I don't think Swan and faust had much hope going into D5. They knew Swan was most likely going down. They decided to resist it and make it RR/Swan because RR could have been Poisoner (Eevee tracking him was somewhat unfortunate for them), and figuring that it would look "too scummy to be scum" for faust to align with Swan.
Taking that day individually, makes sense. The thing that trouble me is that Swan vote late D4. That opens up a line for faust to go full bus on Swan yesterday and say "well, while you were lynching Space I was pushing the poisoner, so you know, who's townie now ?". As I said that's not what I expect scum!faust to do (I think scum!faust plays short term because he assumes survival makes him inherently scummy and the game gets tougher the longer it goes) , so I'm not surprised D5 went the way it did... but I am surprised by the Swan vote. It gives me pause.
At some point either tonight or tomorrow, I'll finish this up with Galz. That should take some time.
Author
Topic: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- GAME OVER (Read 238809 times)