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Author Topic: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- GAME OVER  (Read 238808 times)

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Teproc

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2225 on: October 18, 2017, 05:01:18 am »

We're definitely not lynching Eevee today though. Eevee/DatSwan makes some sense yeah,kinda, but individually Eevee seems townie if only for the whole kerfuffle with Space and the timing and nature of his claim. They didn't know Tracke was even available, and Eevee claimed that second, pretty low in the draft.

For the DatSwan/Eevee otpiion, clearly the lynch would be DatSwan because it covers other scenarios.

I'm not 100% sure who I want to lynch today, but I know it isn't Eevee.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2226 on: October 18, 2017, 05:05:16 am »

We're definitely not lynching Eevee today though. Eevee/DatSwan makes some sense yeah,kinda, but individually Eevee seems townie if only for the whole kerfuffle with Space and the timing and nature of his claim. They didn't know Tracke was even available, and Eevee claimed that second, pretty low in the draft.

For the DatSwan/Eevee otpiion, clearly the lynch would be DatSwan because it covers other scenarios.

I'm not 100% sure who I want to lynch today, but I know it isn't Eevee.

Obviously. It's, as Swan put it, a lowest common denominator thing. Eevee makes sense in far fewer teams than almost anybody.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2227 on: October 18, 2017, 05:44:11 am »

2) We mis-lynch the Poisoned Town (if there is one)
This is not a winning scenario:

D5 end: 7 alive, 2 scum. -> mislynch poisoned player (or mislynch anyone if poison was blocked)
D6 start: 5 alive, 2 scum, 1 poisoned -> lynch any scum (4 alive, 1 scum)
N6: Poisonee dies, scum nightkill: 2 deaths
D7 start: 2 alive, 1 scum -> scum wins.

Well I mean assuming poison went off and assuming nonpoisoner kill D6. Why are you so sure poison went off?
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Galzria

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2228 on: October 18, 2017, 05:53:19 am »

2) We mis-lynch the Poisoned Town (if there is one)
This is not a winning scenario:

D5 end: 7 alive, 2 scum. -> mislynch poisoned player (or mislynch anyone if poison was blocked)
D6 start: 5 alive, 2 scum, 1 poisoned -> lynch any scum (4 alive, 1 scum)
N6: Poisonee dies, scum nightkill: 2 deaths
D7 start: 2 alive, 1 scum -> scum wins.

Well I mean assuming poison went off and assuming nonpoisoner kill D6. Why are you so sure poison went off?

His point is that it doesn't matter in regards to what you've proposed.

There's 7 alive right now:

IF: The Poisoner was blocked and we mislynch, then going into tonight there's 4 Town and 2 Scum. In the morning tomorrow, the Poisoner will have had the opportunity to poison one of the remaining 3 town that scum chooses to leave alive. At that point, even if we lynch the Poisoner, we'll enter the following night with 3 town and 1 Scum. That night the final scum will kill an unpoisoned player and that will be game as the following morning will dawn with just 1 Scum and 1 town.

IF: The Poisoner was not blocked and we "mislynch" the poisoned player today, see:
Quote from: Galzria
...then going into tonight there's 4 Town and 2 Scum. In the morning tomorrow, the Poisoner will have had the opportunity to poison one of the remaining 3 town that scum chooses to leave alive. At that point, even if we lynch the Poisoner, we'll enter the following night with 3 town and 1 Scum. That night the final scum will kill an unpoisoned player and that will be game as the following morning will dawn with just 1 Scum and 1 town.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2229 on: October 18, 2017, 06:12:23 am »

2) We mis-lynch the Poisoned Town (if there is one)
This is not a winning scenario:

D5 end: 7 alive, 2 scum. -> mislynch poisoned player (or mislynch anyone if poison was blocked)
D6 start: 5 alive, 2 scum, 1 poisoned -> lynch any scum (4 alive, 1 scum)
N6: Poisonee dies, scum nightkill: 2 deaths
D7 start: 2 alive, 1 scum -> scum wins.

Well I mean assuming poison went off and assuming nonpoisoner kill D6. Why are you so sure poison went off?

His point is that it doesn't matter in regards to what you've proposed.

There's 7 alive right now:

IF: The Poisoner was blocked and we mislynch, then going into tonight there's 4 Town and 2 Scum. In the morning tomorrow, the Poisoner will have had the opportunity to poison one of the remaining 3 town that scum chooses to leave alive. At that point, even if we lynch the Poisoner, we'll enter the following night with 3 town and 1 Scum. That night the final scum will kill an unpoisoned player and that will be game as the following morning will dawn with just 1 Scum and 1 town.

IF: The Poisoner was not blocked and we "mislynch" the poisoned player today, see:
Quote from: Galzria
...then going into tonight there's 4 Town and 2 Scum. In the morning tomorrow, the Poisoner will have had the opportunity to poison one of the remaining 3 town that scum chooses to leave alive. At that point, even if we lynch the Poisoner, we'll enter the following night with 3 town and 1 Scum. That night the final scum will kill an unpoisoned player and that will be game as the following morning will dawn with just 1 Scum and 1 town.

Well shit no more beers for Swan after 10pm. Water a decent chunk of time considering that option. Clearly your math is correct.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2230 on: October 18, 2017, 06:27:35 am »

We're definitely not lynching Eevee today though. Eevee/DatSwan makes some sense yeah,kinda, but individually Eevee seems townie if only for the whole kerfuffle with Space and the timing and nature of his claim. They didn't know Tracke was even available, and Eevee claimed that second, pretty low in the draft.
What? It's entrie possible that Eevee is a scum Tracker. Not sure why that idea doesn't even appear here. Or maybe I'm just misunderstanding.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2231 on: October 18, 2017, 06:29:59 am »

The points you bring up regarding Eevee's lack of any breadcrumbing D2, as well as his play to stay silent on the PotI thing D3 are well made.

It's worth noting too that while I've argued it's unlikely for Eevee to be scum based on the end of day play yesterday (why wouldn't he and Space team up to avoid a Space lynch?) - it's been based mostly on a town!Swan theory. That is, with town!Swan, scum!Space & scum!Eevee could've joined RR/Faust/e to put Swan at 5 votes, requiring just a single player to switch for the win.
I mean it all depends. Scum!Eevee clearly settled for the long game by not using the Tracker claim to frame someone. In that mindset, it makes sense to first lynch a scumpartner and win by towncred on the next couple of days.
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2232 on: October 18, 2017, 06:39:29 am »

Well, scum!Eevee could be a Tracker yeah, but
a) That means the scumteam ended up being Poisoner/Watcher/Goon/Tracker. DOn't think I'd go for two townie investigative roles (especially in Eevee's slot where likelihood of success was not huge) but sure.
b) Why does Eevee claim a "result" on his scumpartner early day 4 ? It put them both at the top of the claiming order, which I guess is nice when you're intending to claim truthfully, but prevents you from any attempt at framing someone, which in a lylo-ish situation, is pretty nice.

There's nothing individually clearing Eevee, but it's a combination of things that make him very likely to be town in my eyes.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2233 on: October 18, 2017, 06:46:19 am »

Well, scum!Eevee could be a Tracker yeah, but
a) That means the scumteam ended up being Poisoner/Watcher/Goon/Tracker. DOn't think I'd go for two townie investigative roles (especially in Eevee's slot where likelihood of success was not huge) but sure.
b) Why does Eevee claim a "result" on his scumpartner early day 4 ? It put them both at the top of the claiming order, which I guess is nice when you're intending to claim truthfully, but prevents you from any attempt at framing someone, which in a lylo-ish situation, is pretty nice.

There's nothing individually clearing Eevee, but it's a combination of things that make him very likely to be town in my eyes.
Well in this case it was clearly premeditated that they would not frame anyone, instead get some town points and carry the game until after that day. It's also definitely possible that scum did not plan ahead for LyLo considering how many players were still alive at that point.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2234 on: October 18, 2017, 06:55:18 am »

I agree that if Eevee is scum, then he planned the thing with Space. It's a bit of a weird plan though ? Now that we're here I can see how it would work out, but I don't know that it's one I really see scum coming up with.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2235 on: October 18, 2017, 07:35:30 am »

Alright, I've gotten what I wanted from most people I think, so let's talk.

Going into today, I thought we were definitely lynching DatSwan. Rereading him eroded that confidence a bit (kinda similar to faust's recent reread of him), but I still think he's the best lynch for today, probably. So now what I want to do is look at the alternatives: how likely are the scenarios in which DatSwan is town ?

Putting aside the Eevee scenarios for reasons explained above. It might be presumptuous, and certainly if we lynch scum and Eevee is alive today he should not be considered an IC by any means, but I'll take that chance for today.

faust/Galzria/Space/iguana

Bids:
4/8 (faust/Galzria) => #1, takes Poisoner
16 (Space) => #3, takes Watcher
42 (faust/Galzria) => #4, takes Rolecop/Roleblocker
3 (iguana) => #15, goes for Redirector and fails

The first problem here is that I kinda believe faust did go for Redirector just based on day 1, and I don't see how iguana could be in the Galzria slot because there's really no way to fail here (like, you're not going for 1-Shot Disabler or Last Recruit, in the scenarios in which Arch or Jimmm were é which I don't really believe in anyway) but other than that this is all looks plausible enough.

D1 Candidates voting: Galz votes for me while iguana votes for DatSwan, which, sure, they'd just go with what they think their townselves would do.

Days 1 to 3:
Space's reads at #569 have Galz as null, faust as townie, iguana as kinda scummy but not a lynch because of the claim.
Galz's D1 lynchpool at #636 includes 0 partners in this scenario.
#1096 has Galz citing faust as his third highest scum read after Eevee and LL, null on scum, "would investigate" iguana.

So far, sure. Very little meaningful interaction (no votes at all until D3), but enough here and there that it just looks kinda normal. Galz having no scum on his lynch list on D1 would be a thing, but iguana was out of the lynch pool anyway which makes it easier... really the scummiest interactions here are specifically between Space and Galz, but that's not specific to this scum team.

Day 4:
Galz has the typical approach to the Masons claim one would expect him to have, while faust goes on his little crusade. During which Galz complains no one took Dayvig (presumably because faust made for a very appealing candidate at that point). Pretty well done if it's fake, though I suppose scum!Galz could be frustrated with scum!faust too. Galz is otherwise hedgy on scum during this time. Really his #1562 is a giant hedge on everyone in the game save for the Masons.

#1646: Galz agrees with lynching VTs, which would be {scum!faust, scum!Galz, town!DatSwan, town!RR} here. I guess that'd be pretty ok for scum, though Poisoner is definitely in the lynch pool then.
Follows it up in #1653 by hedging some more on faust and RR, landing on Swan as the best lynch.

#1684: Galz supports the idea of scum going for a big outlier in their bids. Is now looking at RR/DatSwan for poisoner and e for most likely scum. Oh yeah.

#1701: Galz falls on his sword, votes me... I think faust is the poisoner in this scenario.

#1711: Sudden apparition of Space in Galz's lynchpool, essentially replacing LL. Could be that Galz is really thinking O and I are going to get him lynched and he needs to polish interactions ? A little strange really.

#1715: Now straight up calling the team as Swan/iguana/Space/e. Swan being the only one scum!Galz would really want to lynch here. I mean, he'd take e, and Space is better than the Poisoner, but still. Appropriately though, he does say Swan is the likely poisoner and his preferred lynch of the bunch.

#1743: Space thinks faust is not the poisoner (and in this scenario I do think he would be)... doesn't think e is a poisoner, kinda not taking big stances on others.

#1746: Space not opposed to lynching faust though.

#1759: faust finds Space and Galzria's bids (the roles they went for) scummy.

#1773: RR has a {Galz, e, Swan, faust}. Relevant because this probably means this scumteam wants to push DatSwan at this point.

#1838: O wants to lynch Space. Galz immediately follows suit. Not 100% sure why, if scum. The Masons votes were super important yesterday (something Galz quite clearly understood given his reaction to us voting him), so that's a pretty risky move. It works out though, since nothing happens with the Space wagon next (I'm still on Galz), and Galz ends up voting e.

#1855: Space propose a faust/Eevee/e/iguana scumteam, though they don't close the door on DatSwan. Hedges on Galzria when asked in #1861.

#1878: I vote faust, which means two townies are on faust and two townies are on Galz as this point. Things are not looking great for this scumteam there. Galz is still on Space at this point, faust and Space are not voting.

Then Eevee votes RR. An out for them maybe ?
Space comes up with a e scumslip, which Galz immediately sheeps (well, Space did not vote but he did), but then swiftly unvotes because e was tracked N1.

#1903: Space votes faust, and Galz soon follows. O and I had stated an unwillingness to lynch faust though.

#1911: O switches to Space.

Then faust goes for DatSwan, Eevee follows O and so do I. So now it's Space at 3 votes and faust at 4. RR goes on DatSwan, but Space does not follow him, instead going on... Galz. This is where this team kinda stops making sense ? Like, Space has ample reasons to go DatSwan here: O and I have never said anything indicating we wouldn't want to lynch him after all, so we could be swayed maybe.  There's already a townie here in RR, so the Masons or e (very willing to lynch Swan)+Eevee is a likely win for scum here. Very possible. Instead she goes for Galz, which means... well, there's the fact that e stated he wouldn't lynch either fo Galz/Space, so it could simply be protecting faust, and hoping e will go on Swan himself and open it up for scum.

Whatever the reason, we then have Eevee switching froone to the other and Qvist voting Space, Eevee coming back and putting Space at L-1, at which point it's basically over. e and DatSwan are still fighting, but scum's accepted the bus, and faust is just absent anyway.

Well. this is a team that makes sense until it doesn't. Full commited partners until they aren't and start bussing like mad. Which... I'm not sure why ? If this is the team, I really don't get why there's not a stronger push on DatSwan at the end. Scum!Galz is aware of how his early D3 looks in this scenario (very very bad), it's not like he can necessarily expect to ride it out till the end. faust can, maybe. I guess that's the plan for them, bus faust knowing full well that O and I aren't going for it so it's safe, and hope that buys enough cred to faust to win ? I don't think they foresse how bad DatSwan looks at the end there, but they can certainly think there's a mislynch there.

So... a possible team with an "all-in on poisoner!faust" plan, I suppose. Not incredibly likely, but can't be dismissed.

Well, that took some time. The others should be a bit quicker, but later.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2236 on: October 18, 2017, 07:53:32 am »

Regarding DatSwan, it is relevant to take into account e's reads:

I will lynch faust or datswan

I think it's safe to say that e blocked one of us. If he blocked me, no info. If he blocked DatSwan, then

A) DatSwan did not perform the nightkill, making him less likely scum.
B) DatSwan/RR is impossible.

Unfortunately, we cannot dismiss e blocking me. But it does make the scenarios where DatSwan is scum less likely.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2237 on: October 18, 2017, 07:55:11 am »

Well, I think the scenarios in which DatSwan is scum mostly have him as Poisoner. I do think e is relatively likely to have blocked him, yeah.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2238 on: October 18, 2017, 07:58:48 am »

Or I suppose scum could have a Roleblocker. Not sure how this can be factored in, it makes things complicated and I am not sure how Roleblockers would be resolved.

PPE: Okay, but the Poisoner could still also perform the nightkill. But yeah, I think that's unlikely given e's suspicions. Okay, nevermind that.

On the other hand, we will get some solid information on poisoning tomorrow (whether or not they succeeded), so maybe all other things being equal it would be better to gun for the non-Poisoner? Then again, if Poisoner has been blocked and we lynch them today, we get an extra lynch. Phew, this is hard.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2239 on: October 18, 2017, 08:02:38 am »

Yeah, I don't think it changes how we lynch today, especially because we don't know who e targeted. I mean I'd bet on DatSwan, but he could easily have targeted you or even Galz.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2240 on: October 18, 2017, 10:21:21 am »

MOD QUESTION - IF A ROLE BLOCK IS SUCCESSFUL IN BLOCKING THEIR TARGET, AND THE TRACKER TRACKS THE BLOCKED PLAYER, WHAT MESSAGE DOES THE TRACKER RECEIVE?

Thank you for your question. The inquisitorial process is how we arrive at the greater truth of our existence. This is exactly the sort of work we are doing here as part of the Dharma Initiative.

The Tracker learns the names of all players targeted by his target (Player A). If Player A is roleblocked, then Player A will not be taking any actions, and therefore, Player A will not target anyone. The Tracker would receive the result: "No Result".
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2241 on: October 18, 2017, 12:37:24 pm »

faust/RR/Space/iguana

Bids:
4/8: faust/RR => #1: Poisoner
16: Space => #3: Watcher
35: faust/RR => #7: Roleblocker/Rolecop
3: iguana => #15: Failed Two-Shot Redirector

Again, don't see RR's slot being a VT one for scum. RR claims to have gone for Watcher, which obviously scum didn't do... I guess maybe JK ? Most likely is iguana's spot being the one claimed by faust though.

Days 1-3: Big difference here is that we actually had a wagon on scum on day 1 in this scenario.

Starts at #300 with your truly saying we need to lynch the lurkers because the game is stalling, and voting RR. I elaborate on meta, and people start sheeping: Eevee, iguana, gkrieg. Eevee then unvotes and the wagon seems to be losing momentum with RR defending himself and Eevee switching to IDPTG.
At this point faust comes in with a Chainsaw Defense*, voting Eevee without really adressing RR himself.
Qvist then votes RR, but gkrieg unvotes (Eevee developping as an alternate wagon), but other people come in and it ends up looking like this (yeah the masons are in green) :

RR (6): Qvist, DatSwan, Galz, faust, Arch, Eevee
gkrieg (3): e, Space, LL
DatSwan (2): RR, iguana
WW (2): O, Teproc
Eevee (1): gkrieg
LaLight (1): Jimmmmm
O (1): Witherweaver


That's the wagon's peak. In this case faust would be the only on-wagon, which would be quite reasonable. It never felt to me that it was very likely that this would go all the way (RR is just too easy a mislynch, and he almost never gets lynched D1 because people are aware of that, it's later that people default to him). Overall it's all pretty consistent with this team. faust unvotes and then comes back to RR again, with the wagon reaching 5 votes at #626, but it never really gains enough momentum to go farther than that

RR has very few interactions with his would-be-partners, and none of it is convincingly non-partnery.

Day 4:
During the claiming RR volunteers his belief of both Space and Eevee, calls the faust v masons thing "nonsense", then claims to have gone for Watcher and mentions it as a reason to believe Space. He never really adresses Space's alignment independently from their claim though.

#1726: RR says lynch preferences are faust>Swan>Galz.

#1734: Now he links his claims to Space being town specifically, when e says Space is scum but RR town (by calling a faust/space/datswan team), and alter seems doubtful Space would go for scum!Watcher twice.

#1743: Space hedges on both faust and RR.

#1746: Space insists on faust not being the poisoner but seems amenable to lynching him.

#1757: RR says faust should get lynched regardless of poisoner stuff (I'm paraphrasing but given the context that's what he means).

#1773: RR's pool is {Galz, e, Swan, faust}. faust is quite unhappy with that.

#1855: Space theorizes a faust/Eevee/e/iguana team with Swan a possibility. Right, so since I haven't mentioned it yet: clearly RR must be the poisoner here, given both Space and RR's willingness to bus faust.

Bit of a back and forth between Space and faust about a number of things. Mostly Space saying we should lynch faust and not them, and faust asking why he should be lynched at all. This is when e and Qvist are on faust and Galz is on Space, Swan on Galz. So Swan is again the obvious mislynch for this scumteam right ?

#1873 faust's pool is {Space, DatSwan, RR} which makes sense I think. He's being bussed, so clearly he can afford to include his partners, but he also has what would be the easiest-seeming mislynch in there in case that pans out. His reasoning before that casts some aspersions on e as well. Mostly interested in RR as a potential Mason partner. Stll no vote from faust though.

#1903: Space commits to the faust bus with a case and a vote.

#1916: faust defends himself (he has 4 votes but the masons aren't voting so he doesn't look that likely to get lynched unless there's a change of heart on our parts) and votes RR... then immediately votes DatSwan upon realizing scum!Masons could have quickhammered him. A townie reasoning, but convenient in this scenario.

And that's basically it. RR and faust disappear after that, both of their votes are on DatSwan.

Space then tries to convince people to lynch either DatSwan or e (hey, that makes sense here), e votes Swan but the votes simply aren't there. At most they can get 4 together (faust, RR, Space and e on Swan) but they essentially need the Masons.

*That's when you vote for someone voting for your partner. It's a more sophisitcated version of OMGUS.


Ok, this is actually a plausible scumteam. Nothing super obvious, but everything works for it. RR and faust are absent at the end but their votes are exactly what they're most likely to be useful for this team... I mean there is an argument to be made that Galz would have been a better mislynch to go for here. That's really the only thing that's off here: I was voting Galz for a lot of D4, with O occasionally there too , and Galz was always in RR and faust's lynchpools.

So I think this one is more likely than faust/Galz/Space/iguana, but less likely than the DatSwan teams. The thing about the DatSwan teams that makes them credible, especially a Galz/Swan/Space/iguana team, is that they never had a good mislynch target. faust looked like it for a while, but then that couldn't really happen without O and I, and they had a somewhat similar problem with RR really.
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2242 on: October 18, 2017, 12:50:26 pm »

Maybe this is wishful thinking, because it comes down to "O and I had decent reads and that's why we lynched scum", which is rather self-serving. But surely scum doesn't go into D4 thinking they're going to bus. They're probably ready to bus a non-Poisoner partner if needed (which is indeed what happened), but not enthusiastic about it. So once it became clear that O and I weren't going to be lynched, they had to be looking at our scum reads and trying to exploit them where they could right ? But no wagon other than Space (scum) and faust (whom we didn't want to lynch) ever got to 4 votes. Galz got to 3 (Teproc, Eevee, Space) at one point but that's it.

How does that happen, really ? Two explanations for me:
- Galz/Swan/Space/iguana team: faust looks like a plausible mislynch for a while but nope, and then they don't want to risk an openly concerted effort on RR or e or Eevee knowing at more than half the town will oppose it, so they just let the mislynch happen and try to act as their town selves would.
- Swan/Space/iguana + faust or RR (or Eevee even) : They try to mislynch Galz, but can't get Qvist or e to follow.

The town is essentially split in two on faust (with e and at least one of the other townies willing but not the Masons) and Galz (Masons are in but none of the other townies except maybe Eevee at one point, but too late), which makes it just hard for scum to get a mislynch through, whichever of them is scum (if any is). They can try RR/e as their best best but no townie is enthusiastic about that so it's a bit risky.

Now if Swan is town, the situation is wholly different. Swan was in basically everyone's lynch pool the whole day.

O and I were not prioritizing him but generally willing. Galz might argue this wasn't obvious, but... I mean I did post my lynchpool once or twice, and Swan was in it. If scum sees me post a lynchpool with Scum/Scum/DatSwan, they'll notice it. Rereading O, he admittedly never had such a post (he actually started out suspecting Swan more than I did in D4, but I suppose that's irrelevant)
RR had Swan in his pool the whole time.
Eevee... actually he has an interesting exchange with O (1936-1938) asking O what he thinks of Swan, to which O responds "as scummy as Space but more scummy people want to lynch Swan", which Eevee seems to agree with.

That could be where an Eevee scumteam works actually, especially Eevee/faust. But Eevee is just individually super townie, which DatSwan is not (he's somewhat townie D1 which counted for a lot then but less now).

Yeah, I think I'm just ready at this point.

vote: DatSwan
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2243 on: October 18, 2017, 12:55:24 pm »

I guess I can unvote for now, no rush. But unless someone has a very compelling argument, I think we're lynching DatSwan.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2244 on: October 18, 2017, 01:08:04 pm »

I guess I can unvote for now, no rush. But unless someone has a very compelling argument, I think we're lynching DatSwan.
Do you think RR and DatSwan can both be scum? That is hard for me to see and I just find RR so scummy, whereas the main thing about DatSwan is this D4 stuff, which hold some merit, but also contains a good bit of WIFOM.

What about O? If you are united on this, there is probably no point in fighting it, as a lynch against you can only succeed with scum's support.
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2245 on: October 18, 2017, 01:33:37 pm »

I dont think RR and DatSwan is a likely pairing at all no. I think you or Galz is the other scum. Maaybe Eevee. But I don't think RR is likely at all to be DatSwan's partner. It's all worth reevaluating the next day of course, but I'm somewhat likely not to be there for that anyway. But in voting DatSwan, I am taking a risk with RR-based scumteams mostly yes.

O has been quiet for a few days. It's partly because I'm waiting for him that I unvoted actually.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2246 on: October 18, 2017, 01:35:05 pm »

What do you find scummy about RR though ? There's a bunch of little things (his reaction to the wagon D1, his "Oh no we're doomed" comment on D4) that makes him seem townie to me.

I don't think you've done a reread oh fim yet ?
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2247 on: October 18, 2017, 01:39:20 pm »

And yeah, what's scummy about DatSwan is mostly day 4 (though I think some of the D5 stuff has also been scummy), but that's by far the most relevant today. In any non-RR scum scenario, scum was completely fine until D4 (well, D3 was a scum lynch but not one that involved actual choices other than quicklynching or not). Even with scum!RR, I don't think scum was ever that worried there.
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2248 on: October 18, 2017, 01:59:38 pm »

Whelp. Gotta be honest, kind of saw this one coming. Really the only thing I can say that I haven't said already is regarding what Teproc just posted about this being mainly based on my D4. More specifically, my EOD 4 actions.

I did not think Space was Skum, and I was wrong. More importantly, when the heat is put on me with the E! switch, and E! has stated a time stamp at which he will hammer Space... If I were Skum why would I not hammer? What would my angle be there?

I can't control the actions of other people, but before any decisions are made I would suggest going back and looking at the end of day 4 with the thought "Why wouldn't Skum!Swan bus hammer Space?"
What is the plus side? If I am skum with Space then I am risking a Skum lynch (me) to save a Skumbuddy (Space), but then next day Skum!Swan or Skum!Space is dead and we are in a worse spot in regards to how the Skum Team looks in the eyes of others (i.e. exactly the situation we are in now. If I am skum, by not acting, I guaranteed Space gets lynched and I look skummier as hell today. Why would I do that?)

Whatever, broken record at this point lol so I will cut it there.

From this point forward, I will only divulge thoughts/information as it is requested of me. As its game over if I die, I see no upside of giving Skum more opportunities to succeed tomorrow by creating similar circumstances to EOD yesterday for them to act on.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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Re: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- Day 5
« Reply #2249 on: October 18, 2017, 02:09:05 pm »

faust did reread RR, I see it now. I see a lot of "scummy" comments for things I find null or townie, so I don't know what to tell you there.
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