Fausty the Snowman, continued!:Starting off on D2 here, Faust's first post is fairly townie:
It is unlikely, although not impossible, for LL to be telling the truth about his bid.
At the same time, while unlikely, I don't see why he would lie either.
This is as true now as it was yesterday.
I agree with you, but could you spell it out for me?
My bid and draft leaves an extremely limited number of possible ways to end up at "bid 16, draft 6", most of which are incredibly unlikely at best.
How unlikely?
Why? Because in a world where faust is scum, he knows that I'm town (or at least, not Mafia). It also means that he knows all the scum bids - as well as mine (I claimed my bid of 42 in the Candidates thread D1). Given that scum bid: 4/8 (and got Draft #1), 16 (and got Draft #3), and that they knew LL was probably Draft #6 (no counter claim) but did NOT bid 16 as claimed, then scum knew that for me to say LL's claim was unlikely that my bid of 42 most likely had me as Draft #4 or Draft #5. Given that knowledge (and you can believe with Space on the scum team that WAS known to scum), I don't see why scum!faust engages in a "How unlikely" conversation here.
But shortly after, faust returns with this:
I can like literally see no reason why skum would not kill at night.
I can like literally see at least one reason.
Share please?
Town Redirector? Also, Watcher. I mean this is pretty basic stuff.
Why was Redirector specified to be Town and Watcher not? I've already floated the theory that you're claiming in Iguana's spot right now based on him going for redirector and failing - scum you would know that there's a chance that there's a town redirector in the game, but also that the Watcher is scum. It's weird that you differentiated here. It's obvious we're talking about the missing SK kill here, not some generic unknown, so Redirector (Mafia or Town), or Watcher (Mafia or Town) are both reasons for an SK to possibly not shoot (although both are farfetched reasons not to shoot D1). Also, why not mention Tracker? Scum you would know Redirector/Watcher were game reasons for a potential SK not to shoot. But if Eevee is town, then scum you would NOT know that Tracker was a game reason.
This feels like partner-y talk about two players they know to not be Mafia - It's completely safe:
Okay, I really should also vote: LL before I sink back into the world of work deadlines...
I'm feeling relatively unconvinced by the argument against gkrieg, until we know whether or not we can trust the person accusing him. Surely the logical thing is to wait for LL to flip before deciding whether to lynch someone on his say-so?
Do you think LaLight is lying about his target, or his role?
This conversation is actually prolonged over the next few posts that I didn't quote - but it all reads generally the same - a conversation between known!scum and faust debating the merits of lynching one non-mafia over another non-mafia.
This is a quote from me D2, but I was tallying up the general feelings at the time regarding LaLight's potential lynch:
That said, I've compiled a small little list on the topic of LL:
For LL Lynch:
O, Galz, Space, Eevee, Datswan, RR? II?
Against LL Lynch:
Teproc, e, faust, LL, Gkrieg
Unknown:
Chairs, Qvist, Jimmm
Note that either: All 4 scum were stating willingness to vote for LL (possible), or faust is scum.
And that's about it for D2. The only thing notable about Day 3 is that faust DID post (so was somewhat active), but did NOT vote for Iguana. This is -somewhat- townie, as I don't think anybody believed for a second that Iguana wasn't going to get lynched. On the other hand, the rush to lynch was borne from a fear that scum had PotI - something scum knew was not the case. Thus it's a lot easier for scum to not share in that same innate fear that was shown by pushing the lynch so quickly.
Onto Day 4!
There's actually very little for most of the day. Faust's early stuff is all revolving around Teproc/O - and while I DO see town!faust doing this more than scum!faust, I just don't have enough experience with scum!faust to say "No way, he's not scum". He then goes VLA for two days bringing us close-ish to the deadline upon his return. That said, there are a few things that stand out:
Like the following contradictory thought when justifying his drafting choice:
I mean, 15th is a position where you go for barracks or something you think no one wants. Not for redirector/summon mother slot
I didn't think I'd get anything, and having information on whether Mother/Redirect is in the game seemed like a good thing to have, better even than a random weak PR.
What are your thoughts on DatSwan going for Barracks and claiming to fail?
I have my doubts anyone with a single digit position would go for it.
Why is that? I made a power ranking of the slots in the first run and had Barracks at position 6. It's pretty strong.
Why would this ever be an assumption? There is nothing (to my knowledge) to support this?
We should also think about the fact that scum likely has a Rolecop, and what that meas with regards to the claims.
In the quote below, there's nothing crazy noteworthy except the call for e to full claim if and who he's blocked - something that, while I believed e to be scum at the time, even I didn't want or push. If e was town (and he was), not knowing was FAR, FAR more valuable to town.
On the flip side of all of that, while I don't particularly agree with HOW he got to his potential lynch pool, I DO believe he's put 2 scum in 3 players at a time when he really didn't need to as scum:
I'm pretty sure that Eevee's not a Poisoner. The early claim does not make sense from a Poisoner!Eevee perspective. So among Space/Eevee I would definitely go for Space.
I just don't think there is any chance that the Masons get lynched at this point. They could well be scum, but there is little to do about that. The upside is that PoE is pretty strong if they are town. It may make sense to look for their most likely partner, as that is our only shot of winning if they are scum, and they are likely scum anyway if Teproc/O are town.
If I had to one single player that Teproc and O did not focus on at all, I'm landing on RR/e. I see no obvious reason why they are town. e more so because he is riding out his confirmation bias like there's no tomorrow, and that sort of conviction is not easily faked as scum.
Then there is DatSwan. I know he is posting a lot, but I cannot really recall any substance. The slot is a convenient one for scum to hide in, plus he's claimed VT. Galzria I'm suspicious of due to what role he went for... but on the other hand, scum!Galz would not be a VT I guess. And that means that Galz is less likely to be the Poisoner.
So I suppose my pool looks something like Space/DatSwan/RR.
What I -don't- like is that he was more concerned about trying to lynch the scum!poisoner over just simply lynching scum. We win if we lynch scum every day - and it's far easier to lynch {Any!Scum} than it is to lynch {Specific!Scum}.
Ultimately faust goes on to push a case on RR that is based on Tep/O being scum. Upon realizing that they could've hammered him and didn't, he dropped RR and voted DatSwan.
Now, again, let's come to the end of the day and look at a few different scenarios - It's important to note here that neither Faust nor RR were around at the deadline (and I'll come back to this in later posts because it's a big factor in my lynch preferences for today):
Scum team is Space/Faust/Eevee - RoadRunner and Faust are parked on DatSwan. They aren't around at deadline, those votes aren't moving. e also strongly prefers to lynch Datswan over Space, and is voting there for most of the runup to Space's lynch. In this scenario, Datswan must be town - Why didn't Space jump to / go for / attempt to get Datswan lynched? If he moves, and scum partner Eevee moves, town!Datswan is at 5 votes, needing just one more to lynch. As this did not happen, I do not believe this to be the scum team.
Scum team is Space/Faust/RoadRunner: Both of Space's scum partners park their vote on a town!Datswan in this situation here. e is also over on Datswan, so he's sitting at 3 votes. If Space moved over, this would put Datswan at 4 - not close enough to reasonably prevent Space's lynch without them being able to secure two from me/Eevee/Qvist (Space would've assumed there was no chance Tep/O were going to go Swan here - they had never stated any intention to do so at any point). This scum!faust scenario is possible - but I would've expected Space to be trying harder to rally up support for a Datswan lynch - something they never did.
Scum team is Space/Faust/Galzria - I don't have much to say about this as it's obviously not a thing, but if you were to consider the possability, I refer you back to the Space/Faust/Eevee scum team scenario. Why in the world would Space and I not have pushed for Datswan and the win (we would have had 5 votes there with e) over me bussing Space and Space trying to rally support for my lynch instead of theirs?
Space/Faust/Datswan - The most likely of the 4 scum teams that exist for Faust based off the end of day stuff. Even here though, the theory would be that scum!faust parked his vote on scummate!Swan prior to deadline right when the Masons were calling for the lynch of other!scummate!Space. I struggle a little bit to believe that faust wouldn't have parked his vote on town!RR or town!Galz at this point instead of scum!Swan. That aside, it makes sense here that Space wouldn't have wanted to go over to Swan. As with the Space/Faust/RR scum team, Space would've needed two additional townies to come over in order to make this lynch happen - and it wouldn've been all to get his scummate lynched. It's the only Scum!Faust that really explains Space not trying to move the lynch to Datswan though.
Blargh. So long. I'll hold off on posting my overall conclusions on lynch preferences following my rereads until all the rereads are done. I definitely have a #1 through #4 at this point though, so, yay for that.
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Topic: Mafia 108: LOST Mafia by Robz and Mcmc -- GAME OVER (Read 238842 times)