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[ashersky]

Doesn't lynch mafia today, WW kills mafia tonight do it?

Puts us at basically 5-player lylo.  Lynch WW, and then it's a crapshoot for WW.  If the remaining one kills mafia, we get 3-player lylo.  If they kill Town, kingmaker loss.

Of course, laying this out forces mafia to not list themselves, thereby removing our only hope...

[ashersky]

Actually, just looked at the kingmaker stuff.  Do we think WW would no kill?

[ashersky]

According to the setup, if we mislynch OR lynch a werewolf today, the game ends in a mafia win.  No night or anything, just game over.

So, we have to lynch mafia.  Even if we do, we've established that no mafia dies at night.  If WW kills town, tomorrow starts at 1v2v2.  Same deal, mislynch or WW lynch means mafia wins, but a mafia lynch means WW wins.

If the WW no kill, tomorrow starts at 2v2v2.  Lynch mafia and WW wins with any NK.  Lynch WW and mafia wins on any NK, do no kill.

2v2v1.  Mislynch or WW lynch means mafia win.  Mafia lynch means WW has 1/3 chance to kill mafia and force 2v1 lylo.

That's the only way we can win.  Mafia lynch, no kill, WW lynch, no kill, Mafia lynch, mafia kill.

[ashersky]

Someone check my breakdown, but I think that's right.

[ashersky]

Out for the night.  If anyone can find a better way, please point it out.

[iguanaiguana]

Alright, if we lynch mafia every day until we would lose:

D3 4T - 3M - 2W
D4 3T - 2M - 2W
D5 2T - 1M - 2W - Here if we lynch mafia, wolves win. So we need to lynch wolves.
D6 1T - 1M - 1W - So if wolves shoot every night, we end up kingmaking on D6. However, since wolves lose ties, wolves may no kill at some point to improve their odds at LyLo. So we may go into D6 with 2T
D6 with one no kill: 2T - 1M - 1W. Here we need to lynch W to get:
D7 - 2T - 1M.

Okay, let's look at lynching wolves first.
D3: 4T - 3M - 2W
D4 3T - 3M - 1W - Let's assume wolves shoot. Here, if we lynch W, we lose, so we need to lynch mafia to get:
D5 2T - 2M - 1W - Same thing. We need to lynch mafia to get
D6 1T - 1M - 1W - Kingmaking. Again, at some point the wolf probably doesn't shoot to improve his odds here. So lynching W first actually looks the same as lynching M first.

For fun, here's what happens if we lynch town again somehow.

D3: 4T - 3M - 2W
D4: 2T - 3M - 2W. Mafia win if they lynch anyone else. So we need to lynch mafia.
D5: 1T - 2M - 2W. Kingmaking, but worse.

Our only hope after a mislynch is that wolves give us 2 no kills because they need our help to lynch mafia.

So here's the short version. We can't make any more mistakes. We also need to kill both wolves and mafia to win. We're also counting on wolves giving us a no kill at some point, which will improve their odds of winning and give us a chance of winning, but stop mafia from having overwhelming odds of winning.

[iguanaiguana]

Worth playing, I guess. At some point I'm going to look at all the damn wagons again.

[gkrieg13]

That hammer was really bad.

[2.71828.....]

Eh, the hammer was actually great if ash is mafia.

I think Robz' vote was unfortunate. Feels like he voted RR as a second choice scum (to gkrieg) which never ends well.

But, enough complaining, I will look forward to try to figure out how to win this thing.

[2.71828.....]

Town: iguana, eevee, e, X

Everyone else, scum

[Eevee]

Mehmehmehhh this is very crappy, I really really should have moved my vote from ashersky who clearly wasn't happening but there wasn't one single moment I stopped following the game and I just didn't realize what I was doing. Just not good play, I would have preferred gkrieg or reggie but that's on me.

[iguanaiguana]

Teproc was not on the list twice.  So doesn't he pretty much have to be mafia by now?

[Eevee]

Well, the people who chose to lynch RR over gkrieg line up with my earlier scum reads, so most/only interested in lynching ash (I guess the hammer isn't as scummy from ash who loves his hammers so much, but still very dubious), gkrieg (least scummy of the votes, just had to for self-preservation), Robz (got his quicklynch I guess, boo!), Jake (I guess again less scummy of a vote because RR and Jake have a thing about lynching each other? Still booo!) or Joseph.

Town points to Teproc for the defending of RR late and voting gkrieg.

I don't like Iguana having voted for RR but people have different reads sometimes, him having been named twice and just generally making so many towny-seeming post that seem so hard to fake, still really think he is town.

[Eevee]

Teproc was not on the list twice.  So doesn't he pretty much have to be mafia by now?

I'm not sure it's so simple, this game is stacked with very strong players. Looking at the list, it's a very experienced group, full of guys I'd consider top tier.

[iguanaiguana]

Teproc was not on the list twice.  So doesn't he pretty much have to be mafia by now?

I'm not sure it's so simple, this game is stacked with very strong players. Looking at the list, it's a very experienced group, full of guys I'd consider top tier.

If you are town, and I am town, then two more people are town,  and the rest are scum; it's that simple.

[Eevee]

Yeahh. Eh, pretty demoralizing.

[iguanaiguana]

Yeahh. Eh, pretty demoralizing.

The good news is that we are probably both town, so at least we can not vote each other!

Because if you are scum, Faust and Robz were both wrong about a strong townread on you. That's the best evidence I've got.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

So someone explain to me how town can win and then maybe I will keep playing.

Lynch you?  This seems unlike town!you.  It's like a reverse me from M100. 

Plus, listed twice and survived twice?  I guess if you remain "towniest" in the game, the Robz kill was a mafia hunt?  I fully expected to see you dead (no offense).

Vote Ashersky

[J Reggie]

Sorry for being relatively absent. I doubt I would've made yesterday go much better by coming on earlier but maybe a gkrieg lynch would have done the trick. I'm gonna have to reread D1 to see if I still think he's scum, and also if he's more likely to be mafia.

[ashersky]

So someone explain to me how town can win and then maybe I will keep playing.

Lynch you?  This seems unlike town!you.  It's like a reverse me from M100. 

Plus, listed twice and survived twice?  I guess if you remain "towniest" in the game, the Robz kill was a mafia hunt?  I fully expected to see you dead (no offense).

Vote Ashersky

There's the OMGUS I called!

[ashersky]

Teproc was not on the list twice.  So doesn't he pretty much have to be mafia by now?

And gkrieg.  The two best town players in this game not listed either day?

[Eevee]

Yeahh. Eh, pretty demoralizing.

The good news is that we are probably both town, so at least we can not vote each other!

Because if you are scum, Faust and Robz were both wrong about a strong townread on you. That's the best evidence I've got.

Yeah. Time for a comeback! Who do you think we should lynch?

[Teproc]

I'm pretty certain both ash and iguana's analysis are wrong... so let's try it out. Relevant part of the OP:

9. If the game goes on for 3 days and 3 nights without a lynch or nightkill, town wins.

[...]

Endgame:
-The mafia or werewolves win if they obtain a full majority of living players, or if they make up half and at least one protown role is still alive.

-If the mafia and werewolves ever make up equal numbers, with no protown roles left alive, then mafia win. Mafia also win if a day phase begins with one mafia, one werewolf, and one protown.

I'll assume mafia never lists themselves and WWs always assume this as well because it's simpler to theorycraft, but in any situation which leads to a WW or town win, bear in mind mafia can WIFOM there to make it harder to PoE them.

The situation right now: 4T, 3M, 2W.

1) We lynch town=> 3T, 3M, 2W

1a) The WWs kill town => 2T, 3M, 2W

If we lynch town again => mafia wins.
If we lynch werewolf => mafia wins
If we lynch mafia, and:
- werewolves kill town, it's now 1/2/2. Lynching town mafia wins, lynching mafia WWs win, lynching WW mafia wins
- werewolves no kill, it's now 2/2/2. Lynching town, WWs have to no kill, so it's 1/2/2... I don't know but I'm pretty sure we don't win that one; either mafia wins or WWs win. Lynching mafia, WWs win. Lynching WWs they nokill so it's 2/2/1, lynching WW means mafia wins, lynching mafia means WWs nokill (because mafia wins 1/1/1) and we have to lynch WW THEN mafia, and town wins. Shortcut for later: 2/2/2 has an out, which is: lynch WW, then mafia, then WW, then mafia.
If we noylnch, and:
- werewolves kill town, it's now 1/3/2, mafia wins
- werewolves no-kill, we're back to 1a. Three cycles means town wins, so werewolves get to play kingmakers (killing means, no killing three times makes town win). Mafia + WWs can get a lynch through though, so they can ally somehow, not sure who wins if that happens, but it's not us.

So... 1a essentially means we either need to lynch Mafia/WW/Mafia/WW/Mafia with WWs always no killing (which is not guaranteed) OR try to go for three cycles and hope WWs kingmake in our favor. Pretty dire, but not an outright loss I suppose.

1b) The WWs no kill: 3T/3M/2W

If we lynch town, it's now 2/3/2. WWs have to nokill, so we're back to 1a).
If we lynch mafia, it's now 3/2/2. WWs kill town, we're at 2/2/2, see that part of 1a. WWs can nokill, but in 2/2/2 they win by lynching mafia, so I don't think they do that so let's skip that part, feel free to do it yourself.
If we lynch WW, it's now 3/3/1. Lynching town or WW means mafia wins. Lynching mafia, if WWs kill town we're now at 2/2/1, we need to lynch mafia, WWs no kill then we need to lynch WW then we need to lynch mafia. So 3/3/1 (and ultimately 2/2/1) also have an out of: lynch mafia, then mafia, then WW, then mafia.
If we no lynch WWs have to kill eventually or we win, if they kill town it's 2/3/2. They have to nokill now, we're back to 1a or the WWs as kingmakers scenario, with the potential WW/mafia alliance.

Long story short: we're not quite at mylo. Our fate is not entirely in our hand though, because if we mislynch and WWs kill we need to then lynch mafia, and WWs get to choose between 1/2/2 (where they win by lynching mafia and we never win) and 2/2/2 (where they win by lynching mafia and maybe have a shot if they lynch town, but we still can win by lining up scum lynches in the correct order). If they no kill we then need to lynch WW (so they probably don't do that ?) and now we need to line up the scum lynches in the correct order. I think WWs like the first situation better anyway and will kill. There is also the no lynch option which forces WW to either kingmake or ally with mafia... I don't know what the latter looks like but it can't be good for us, and I certainly don't like letting WWs just decide the fate of the game either, so I don't think that's really a plan... not in 1 anyway.

2) We lynch mafia => 4T, 2M, 2W

I'm not going to entertain nokill because I hardly see why WWs would oblige us in that way there, so let's make that 3T, 2M, 2W.

2a) We lynch town, it's now 2/2/2, with WW able to make it 1/2/2 if they wish, and we lose, or they nokill and it's good ol' 2/2/2 again.

2b) We lynch mafia, it's now 3/1/2, WWs definitely kill so it's 2/1/2. Lynching town means WWs win, Llynching mafia means WWs win, lynching WW puts us at 2/1/1 with WW unable to nokill (or mafia wins, we then need to lynch WW then lynch mafia.

2c) We lynch WW, it's now 3/1/1. WWs definitely kill so it's 2/1/1. We know this one: we need to lynch WW then mafia.

2d) We nolynch. WWs kill, we're at 2/2/2, we know that one. No lynching is thus terrible in 2).

Once again, a mislynch at any point doesn't quite mean we lose, but it does take our fates partially in WWs hands.

3) We lynch WW => 4T/3M/1W

Obviously WWs kill, so 3T/3M/1W

3a) We lynch town.  Mafia wins

3b) We lynch mafia. 3/2/1. WWs kill town, 2/2/1. We must lynch mafia, WWs can't kill, we must lynch WW and then lynch mafia.

3c) We lynch WW. It's now 4/3. Lynching town means mafia wins, but every mafia lynch means we can afford a mislynch.

3d) We nolynch. WWs have to nokill... yeah, this is the whole WW kingmakers scenario I really don't like again.

4) We nolynch => 4T, 3M, 2Ws

WWs kill town... I think we can stop there, nolynching is terrible.


Now all of this is subject to mafia never submitting themselves... things can do much better for us if they get killed at night of course, but if they anticipate getting into one of the town wins situation (so, mostly in 2 and 3), they can start not including themselves (they might have done it already but I don't think so).

Essentially, I don't get the doom and gloom. This is slightly better than normal mylo... granted, we have 5 scum to lynch, but we have a really small lynchpool. We can do it... except if people give up. iguana I think is just depressed town, but I don't get how ash gets this so wrong ? I'm not sure which faction benefits the most from apathetic town here, but I sure don't think it's us.

[Teproc]

So now, all we need to do is to PoE.

iguanaiguana => Town
2.71828... => Town, I think ?
Joseph2302 => Null, probably scum of some sort
Eevee => Not mafia. Slightly more likely to be town than WW just because of Robz dying.
gkrieg13 => Scummy, definitely scum of some sort
JR => Town, I think ?
Jake => Scummy, definitely scum of some sort
ashersky => Null to scummy, probably scum of some sort

Essentially we just have to find the 3 other townies. My guess is iguana/e/JR, with Eevee being the most likely to replace whichever one of those three I'm wrong about.

I think lynching anyone else is fine... I'm leaning towards gkrieg/Jake... but I'm going to need to reread this whole thing. Before I do that, can someone think about what gkrieg being the alternate wagon to RR means ? It really depends on who we think scum wanted to lynch yesterday, and I'm not entirely sure what the answer to that is.

[Teproc]

Also, don't forget mafia has daychat. Two non-mafia votes on non-mafia means they can quicklynch. Be careful with your votes.