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[Eevee]

Can we please lynch Eevee already?  He just seems sooooo off.

Why is "off" even scummy (for me)? If you look at my record in the few games I've played lately, I feel early mislynch has been the most common outcome. I was probably "off" in them too, you know?

At the risk of sounding dramatic, I feel the f.ds mafia game may have passed by me. I'm having fun (obviously, that's why I keep on signing up for new games), but I feel I'm just not very good/useful, especially compared to the population. The level of play seems very high these days! Back in the day, at least the way I remember it, we used to have one or multiple complete lurkers and/or really erratic players each game, so what was required to be considered a decent player was much less (these things work in comparison to population).

I do feel that this lower effort style is keeping it fun for me though, and I do like to think that if I ever made it very deep again, I would be putting in more time and concentration to try my hardest. Still, I've kind of settled into this casual, weaker player mold, and I'm fine with it. I just feel I'm suspected for playing like that, a lot.

[gkrieg13]

Do you have anything concrete you'd like my response to? I feel I'm on!

Hmm. Unrelated: Is convincing your scumreads you are town a fruitful exercise in this setup?

Why is RR town, why is Teproc there with a question mark instead of going back and forth, and how do you feel that RR had a wagon on him that never went to completion?

[Eevee]

Do you have anything concrete you'd like my response to? I feel I'm on!

Hmm. Unrelated: Is convincing your scumreads you are town a fruitful exercise in this setup?

Why wouldn't it be?

Wouldn't scum be even less likely than usual to "change their mind" because here they wouldn't know if the person they are accusing actually is town or not?

Just generally wondering about trying to change the mind of someone who might be not at all receptive to it.

[gkrieg13]

Do you have anything concrete you'd like my response to? I feel I'm on!

Hmm. Unrelated: Is convincing your scumreads you are town a fruitful exercise in this setup?

Why wouldn't it be?

Wouldn't scum be even less likely than usual to "change their mind" because here they wouldn't know if the person they are accusing actually is town or not?

Just generally wondering about trying to change the mind of someone who might be not at all receptive to it.

I think scum is pretty much the same in multiball with this aspect. Even in closed setups, scum doesn't know exactly the alignment of every player, and they still have to change their mind every once in a while.

[Robz888]

Can we please lynch Eevee already?  He just seems sooooo off.

Why is "off" even scummy (for me)? If you look at my record in the few games I've played lately, I feel early mislynch has been the most common outcome. I was probably "off" in them too, you know?

At the risk of sounding dramatic, I feel the f.ds mafia game may have passed by me. I'm having fun (obviously, that's why I keep on signing up for new games), but I feel I'm just not very good/useful, especially compared to the population. The level of play seems very high these days! Back in the day, at least the way I remember it, we used to have one or multiple complete lurkers and/or really erratic players each game, so what was required to be considered a decent player was much less (these things work in comparison to population).

I do feel that this lower effort style is keeping it fun for me though, and I do like to think that if I ever made it very deep again, I would be putting in more time and concentration to try my hardest. Still, I've kind of settled into this casual, weaker player mold, and I'm fine with it. I just feel I'm suspected for playing like that, a lot.

Your play is fine, Eevee! You are telegraphing your towniness, and that helps a lot.

[Eevee]

I'm not gonna defend myself, it never works. This is still a game with town majority, so hopefully those who have the same win con as me will see sense. If not, you're just shooting yourself in your own foot.

I am not good at defending myself. This has been proven time after time in past games and even very recent/ongoing games. The main reasons for RR being scum seem to be that I'm lurky, which isn't a scum tell, and that I made a joke about how I was scum or something. If I didn't do that as both alignments, I'd be pretty terrible at being scum (which I'm not).

If all my townish reads vote for me (Teproc, TWM, Jake and iguana) I will vote for myself, because I believe at that point the majority of the town will want me lynched, and I won't go against the town.

These posts by RR just seem too care-free and relaxed for scum. I think RR is to the point now where for him being "obviously scummy" is a town tell, because as scum he'd be more cautious to not raise suspicions. His attitude now reads to me as "I'm content on being the lynch if it comes to that, I'll just call you guys out after the game for making a mistake." Also, for mafia, naming any of their own to the kill list seems like a risk, so I'm heavily discounting RR (and Iguana) for half of the scum slots. I'm not super good on bayesian probabilities, but that seems like a big deal when we are otherwise working with such little information

The wagon data doesn't seem very useful (to me, anyways). With half the people scum, any subset of two people is 50-50 to contain scum. Scum not knowing who the other scum are, I'm not sure how informative looking at confirmed townies on a wagon is. I could see individual scum teams having both on, both off, or 1-1, and I think the teams would move completely independent to the other team. Might be that I'm just not sharp enough to analyze it, but I feel that data is mostly just noise.

I put Teproc down as town because I feel he's making a lot of sense, but I'm also a little wary because he is being such a leader and thought influencer. It's the town read I'm least certain about, and one I think could have the worst consequences if mistaken.

[iguanaiguana]

If R is werewolf,  obviously werewolves don't kill him. If he is mafia or town, werewolves don't know which. Now they choose between killing him or one of TWM/me.

If they choose him, they lose a person who was wagoned twice and who the most recently lynched townie wanted to lynch. Therefore killing Roadrunner reduces the pool of non-werewolf lynches and increases the chance that someone on their team gets lynched on a later day. What they gain is a chance to hit mafia, but definitely no 100% guarantee of it.

If they choose TWM or me, they remove a player who was very unlikely to be lynched from the game. 100% guarantee. All they lose is any chance to hit mafia.

Option 2 is way better there. Even if we assume wolves really want to kill mafia D1, they still don't know if RR is town and they are just being baited. So they shoot the towny player every time.

Which also means it is very safe for mafia to put a scummy looking teammate on their list. In fact, N1 after a town lynch is by far the safest night to make that choice.

[iguanaiguana]

Vote: Roadrunner

[Robz888]

Vote: Roadrunner

I think RR is probably scum, but I sort of think we can do better at this point... gkrieg, Teproc, etc.

[Eevee]

Hmm. You convinced me, Iguana!

I'm still not really interested in lynching RR, at least for today, just not sure scum would have thought through all that. But maybe.

[Roadrunner7671]

Why was TWM guaranteed not to be mafia? How did the werewolves know that when assessing their options?

[2.71828.....]

I disagree with that analysis. Let me explain why.

Mechanics:
-Day start

-Mafia have day talk; werewolves do not

-Werewolves have a factional nightkill; mafia do not

-During the day, the mafia submits a list of 3 players, which can change throughout the day

-At the start of night, the list is made public in-thread; if the werewolves choose to nightkill, the target must be one from the list

-If a list that does not contain three living players is submitted, werewolves may kill anyone they want

-If all mafia are dead, werewolves may kill anyone they want

Endgame:
-The mafia or werewolves win if they obtain a full majority of living players, or if they make up half and at least one protown role is still alive.

-If the mafia and werewolves ever make up equal numbers, with no protown roles left alive, then mafia win. Mafia also win if a day phase begins with one mafia, one werewolf, and one protown.

1) mafia are dependant on werewolves for the kill, otherwise they just have to lynch town

2) werewolves are not dependant on mafia for the kill. Once mafia are dead, werewolves can kill anyone.

Given these points, werewolves should be looking to kill scum whenever possible. I disagree that TWM was so hugely and obviously town more than rr or iguana. I think, rather, mafia put forward there 3 biggest town reads. Bottom line. Mafia have absolutely no reason to nominate themselves for the kill. especially N1. And, on N1, they really don't need to try to kill werewolves.

Basically, there is no reason to vote rr based on his inclusion on the list.

[2.71828.....]

Also just reminded of daychat. It has historically been under-used here at f.ds from what I have seen, but it can be powerful I hear

[J Reggie]

Want to point out, and no offense to Eevee, that the whole "f.ds doesn't get my playstyle" thing is more likely from scum. It's a genuine thing they can say that doesn't risk getting caught in a lie and is pretty good at derailing wagons. Definitely fos at Eevee.

[J Reggie]

Unfortunately this is what town ii looks like. I still disagree with pretty much that whole post.

Which parts do you agree with?

I guess the part about teproc faking the game-solvy-ness.

[Joseph2302]

Also just reminded of daychat. It has historically been under-used here at f.ds from what I have seen, but it can be powerful I hear

You're using it well this game then? ;-)

[iguanaiguana]

Why was TWM guaranteed not to be mafia? How did the werewolves know that when assessing their options?

If mafia has a member who greater than 50% of people read as town,  then it would be a substantial risk to put them on the list.

[iguanaiguana]

I think, rather, mafia put forward there 3 biggest town reads. Bottom line.

Lol

[Roadrunner7671]

Why was TWM guaranteed not to be mafia? How did the werewolves know that when assessing their options?

If mafia has a member who greater than 50% of people read as town,  then it would be a substantial risk to put them on the list.

But the reward would be high too!

[iguanaiguana]

Vote: Roadrunner

I think RR is probably scum, but I sort of think we can do better at this point... gkrieg, Teproc, etc.

Assuming Gkrieg, Teproc and RR are all scum, how can you do better than getting rid of the lurker who is doing nothing to help us find the other faction?

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

I think ashersky's lower than usual activity in this game means he is town.

I like what robz did, even if I agree with a few of his reads.
My thoughts (in no particular order):
Town:
e
Iguana
Ashersky
Robz
RR
Eevee

Scum:
Jake
J Reggie
Teproc
Gkrieg
Joseph

Worst list ever

Is it just the worst because it includes you?

No but because it's like the opposite of my reads.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

I'm not gonna defend myself, it never works. This is still a game with town majority, so hopefully those who have the same win con as me will see sense. If not, you're just shooting yourself in your own foot.

I am not good at defending myself. This has been proven time after time in past games and even very recent/ongoing games. The main reasons for RR being scum seem to be that I'm lurky, which isn't a scum tell, and that I made a joke about how I was scum or something. If I didn't do that as both alignments, I'd be pretty terrible at being scum (which I'm not).

If all my townish reads vote for me (Teproc, TWM, Jake and iguana) I will vote for myself, because I believe at that point the majority of the town will want me lynched, and I won't go against the town.

These posts by RR just seem too care-free and relaxed for scum. I think RR is to the point now where for him being "obviously scummy" is a town tell, because as scum he'd be more cautious to not raise suspicions. His attitude now reads to me as "I'm content on being the lynch if it comes to that, I'll just call you guys out after the game for making a mistake." Also, for mafia, naming any of their own to the kill list seems like a risk, so I'm heavily discounting RR (and Iguana) for half of the scum slots. I'm not super good on bayesian probabilities, but that seems like a big deal when we are otherwise working with such little information

The wagon data doesn't seem very useful (to me, anyways). With half the people scum, any subset of two people is 50-50 to contain scum. Scum not knowing who the other scum are, I'm not sure how informative looking at confirmed townies on a wagon is. I could see individual scum teams having both on, both off, or 1-1, and I think the teams would move completely independent to the other team. Might be that I'm just not sharp enough to analyze it, but I feel that data is mostly just noise.

I put Teproc down as town because I feel he's making a lot of sense, but I'm also a little wary because he is being such a leader and thought influencer. It's the town read I'm least certain about, and one I think could have the worst consequences if mistaken.

Isn't RR's play always carefree and relaxed as either alignment?

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Vote: Roadrunner

I think RR is probably scum, but I sort of think we can do better at this point... gkrieg, Teproc, etc.

I don't

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

I disagree with that analysis. Let me explain why.

Mechanics:
-Day start

-Mafia have day talk; werewolves do not

-Werewolves have a factional nightkill; mafia do not

-During the day, the mafia submits a list of 3 players, which can change throughout the day

-At the start of night, the list is made public in-thread; if the werewolves choose to nightkill, the target must be one from the list

-If a list that does not contain three living players is submitted, werewolves may kill anyone they want

-If all mafia are dead, werewolves may kill anyone they want

Endgame:
-The mafia or werewolves win if they obtain a full majority of living players, or if they make up half and at least one protown role is still alive.

-If the mafia and werewolves ever make up equal numbers, with no protown roles left alive, then mafia win. Mafia also win if a day phase begins with one mafia, one werewolf, and one protown.

1) mafia are dependant on werewolves for the kill, otherwise they just have to lynch town

2) werewolves are not dependant on mafia for the kill. Once mafia are dead, werewolves can kill anyone.

Given these points, werewolves should be looking to kill scum whenever possible. I disagree that TWM was so hugely and obviously town more than rr or iguana. I think, rather, mafia put forward there 3 biggest town reads. Bottom line. Mafia have absolutely no reason to nominate themselves for the kill. especially N1. And, on N1, they really don't need to try to kill werewolves.

Basically, there is no reason to vote rr based on his inclusion on the list.

Yes Yes Yes

[Joseph2302]

Vote: Roadrunner

I think RR is probably scum, but I sort of think we can do better at this point... gkrieg, Teproc, etc.

I don't

Yh I think RR was a WIFOM add scum move from the scum team.
Vote: RR