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[Jimmmmm]

Jimmmmm, do you consider it even a tiny bit possible that I am scum?

For me the recent LR debacle has made it go from 0% to maybe 2%. I suppose that would go up significantly if someone else was killed after a no-lynch. But really, if you're scum then the rest of us have been screwed over by a setup that was focused on our two half-Cops with no indication that they're close to utterly useless.

[Jimmmmm]

Actually I think a no-lynch is pointless even without yuma's LR. What incentive would scum have to actually kill someone?

[yuma]

For now I am going to unvote Robz until I fully take into consideration what I have learned in the past 24 hours.

Hopefully I will be able to do that tonight.

[jotheonah]

I think if it came to it, I would push for Happily Ever After to count as a draw for all parties re: rankings. No one would win, no one would lose. Except of course, factions already eliminated completely, if said factions exist. They would register a loss. This hypothetical is presented for informational purposes and should in no way be construed to disclose the number of factions still at play in the game.

[Jimmmmm]

Gosh, now the mod's making me think you're both scum.

[Robz888]

Actually I think a no-lynch is pointless even without yuma's LR. What incentive would scum have to actually kill someone?

I think there was a chance they would have killed someone... but not much of a chance now.

[yuma]

Should we at least try and no lynch and give scum the chance to night kill...? And maybe scum will? Although if scum does I guess it would be to scum's advantage (or at least scum would think it was to their advantage) and so we wouldn't want to no lynch?

[Robz888]

Should we at least try and no lynch and give scum the chance to night kill...? And maybe scum will? Although if scum does I guess it would be to scum's advantage (or at least scum would think it was to their advantage) and so we wouldn't want to no lynch?

I don't think it hurts, but it also probably doesn't matter.

[liopoil]

okay. imagine this scenario:

no lynch and no kill two nights/days in a row. On the third day no lynch. Do we think scum will kill?

If we think scum will kill, or we are okay with modkill/HEA, here's what we should do:

tell Yuma to randomly pick a night, one, two, or three, and not tell us which. On that night he LRs. We no lynch until someone dies. gives us a 1/3 chance of Yuma dying, not someone else. (me).

But before we do anything else we should all make up our mind on who we think the scum is.

[liopoil]

Gosh, now the mod's making me think you're both scum.

The possibility, however slim, of there being two scum is another reason to no lynch.

[Robz888]

okay. imagine this scenario:

no lynch and no kill two nights/days in a row. On the third day no lynch. Do we think scum will kill?

If we think scum will kill, or we are okay with modkill/HEA, here's what we should do:

tell Yuma to randomly pick a night, one, two, or three, and not tell us which. On that night he LRs. We no lynch until someone dies. gives us a 1/3 chance of Yuma dying, not someone else. (me).

But before we do anything else we should all make up our mind on who we think the scum is.

I don't know. Like I really don't know. I guess that's fine.

[liopoil]

well, if we assume that a draw is half as good as a win, and Mass-modkill is just as likely as HEA, then scum gets on average a quarter-win. Therefore the question is, do they think they have more than a 1/4 chance of winning by killing?

This is risky because we get an average of a quarter-win as well. Our chances are definately better then that, because we could get that by just randomly lynching one of us.

[Robz888]

Okay. I sort of just still think we should No Lynch anyway, so whatever. I don't see like a really good or obvious way to turn this into a tangible benefit.

[liopoil]

well, I think what I suggested is potentially helpful. Well, only if Yuma is town. I guess it likely isn't worth the risk.

[Jimmmmm]

no lynch and no kill two nights/days in a row. On the third day no lynch. Do we think scum will kill?

I think you misunderstand what jo meant. I think if we no-lynch then scum no-kills then we no-lynch again the game's over.

[liopoil]

3 consecutive phases with no killing/lynching and I'll either Happily Ever After or MODKILL EVERYONE. Depending on my mood.

hmmm. does phases mean a day+night, or just one of those? probably the latter. So scratch my idea.

[Robz888]

well, I think what I suggested is potentially helpful. Well, only if Yuma is town. I guess it likely isn't worth the risk.

That's the thing. If you're so sure yuma is town, we don't really need gimmicks.

[Jimmmmm]

Okay so here's the scenario that's forming in my head:

The MU team was Galz, mcmc, Robz. Robz was, in fact, a 1-shot Tracker, like he said, thus it was a safe claim for him. Maybe he's even a full Tracker, but of course claiming 1-shot that's been used makes him unlikely to be nightkilled. After he lost one partner and looked like losing another, he decided the best thing to do was to claim and say he Tracked mcmc. Maybe he actually tracked me or someone, I don't know. He figured that scum generally want to claim late, so claiming early gives him Town cred, and he can definitely give Town cred to mcmc as well. And of course it worked. Later on the time came to bus mcmc, and so of course he did that, since lynching mcmc is what Town Robz would have done.
Then we get to last night. On the one hand Robz doesn't want to kill ash, because of ash's Town read on him. But maybe he can use that to his advantage. Robz' plan is to make it seem impossible that there can be a third MU, so he can't be critiqued for his interaction with mcmc. But if he argues that, then having ash around is a problem. ash can't be Maquis, so saying there can't be MU left makes ash, plus whoever he investigated an "IC". He was unlikely to investigate Robz because of his Town read on him, so killing liopoil means there will most likely be two confirmed non-Maquis, so Robz arguing that there has to be a Maquis left will put it to a 50/50 between him and either me or yuma. So of course he kills ash. He loses the benefit of having ash around saying he's Town, but he gets the benefit of having a confirmed Town who said he was Town, and someone died who Robz "surely" wouldn't've killed, and he can now go ahead with his "There has to be a Maquis" plan more safely.

[Robz888]

The reason I reject this scenario is that it doesn't work for me! The result is you guys lynch me. That's probably what's going to happen. It's not what would happen if ash was still alive. Why take a chance on the WIFOM argument working when I can just win?

[Jimmmmm]

I agree it DOES seem unlikely that you would kill ash. Which is what would have made it seem advantageous. You can now use arguments like that.

Anyway, I just don't know. I really want to get this right. But you just both seem probTown. I haven't been able to put all that much time and effort in lately. I still need to re-read you before I'd be comfortable voting, and I also want to re-read what ash was saying about you.

[liopoil]

Okay, now that I know that joth meant three half-days, I don't think we should nolynch. There is absolutely no way that it can potentially benefit town I think.

Jimmmmm, that's the scenario I was sure was the case when mcmc flipped scum. It 100% fit with everything. And then ashersky died...

[Jimmmmm]

Jimmmmm, that's the scenario I was sure was the case when mcmc flipped scum. It 100% fit with everything. And then ashersky died...

Exactly.

[liopoil]

Okay, say robz is MU, and he kills one of liopoil/Jimmmmm. the other one is conf. town. (ash investigates Jimmmmm). From what Jimmmmm is saying I think whichever is still alive of liopoil/Jimmmmm is going to be very sure that Robz is the scum.  If the IC refuses to vote for anyone besides the scum then the scum cannot win. Even if Ashersky would eventually have to consent and lynch robz, because even from him he has to understand that there is a non-zero chance that lynching robz wins the game for town, and a zero chance that never lynching wins the game for town.

[Jimmmmm]

What I'm mosting saying is that if Robz wants to go down his "There can't possibly be MU left" line of arguments, then killing liopoil leaves him and one other possible Maquis, and killing ash leaves him and two other possible Maquis.

[Jimmmmm]

mostly*