Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[yuma]

So long-winded way of saying "yuma should definitely LR no matter what" which is why I think we should NOT lynch yuma today.

lol agreed, and I have already stated I find dsell scummier than robz, robz has been active and towny all game to me, dsell has been scummy and more importantly was given strong town status D1 and did nothing with it to help town, as opposed to theorel who used his early town cred(everyone had a town rad on him) and continued to be helpful all game.

well that is nice and vague.

[yuma]

So I am interested in some old fashioned wagon analysis because I think that is generally a pretty good way of learning about scum:

Cuzz: Galzria, TheMunch, Glooble, liopoil, Robz888, ashersky
off cuzz: mcmcsalot, Jimmmmm, yuma, Dsell

Eevee: ashersky, TheMunch, liopoil, yuma, mcmcsalot, Robz888
off Eevee: Jimmmmm glooble, mcmcsalot, Dsell

Glooble: ashersky, theorel, yuma, liopoil, Robz888, Dsell
not glooble: TheMunch, Jimmmmm, mcmcsalot, glooble

So just from this I would bet that the remaining marquis is off wagon on the cuzz wagon. I would also guess, but am less sure that Galz's partner is also off wagon, if there is an additional Galz partner it would be a toss up I think. For me this puts mcmc, jimmm and dsell at the top of my list.

Dsell I still find scummy from lack of participation, his reads have just been all over the place (which in a way is kinda townie), his scarcity of votes (although it should be noted that his two votes were on Marquis--o... and he can't be Marquis anyways because of the NK interaction right?)

mcmc maybe? He has been scummy... and kinda had a pass as Galz's potential partner, which makes sense, but why hasn't he been considered as another Marquis?

And Jimmmm still remains scummy from my case on him yesterday. But his claim is problematic. But also very convenient. Do we have to save him for a lynch for the last day? What happens again if we lynch him? Town will skip a day, which effectively means we will have two consecutive nights. Ok, if true, that is bad. At the least we should hold off lynching him until we are sure there will only be 1 NK a night, not two.

Also Jimmm and mcmc have been off on all three wagons. lio, ash and robz have all been on all 3.

Is there any reason we aren't looking at mcmc? I am thinking that might be the direction to go, or at least potentially look.

[liopoil]

Theorel doesn't want to consider mcmc because he is very likely not-MU. this is also why he doesn't want to lynch me: I'm certainly not MU! However, I think he is the Maquis (not marquis). I also think Robz is the MU. It fits perfectly with his certainty that I am Maquis.

[mcmcsalot]

So long-winded way of saying "yuma should definitely LR no matter what" which is why I think we should NOT lynch yuma today.

lol agreed, and I have already stated I find dsell scummier than robz, robz has been active and towny all game to me, dsell has been scummy and more importantly was given strong town status D1 and did nothing with it to help town, as opposed to theorel who used his early town cred(everyone had a town rad on him) and continued to be helpful all game.

well that is nice and vague.

How is that vague, I have had and still have a town read on robz, something I continue to be very good at guessing. I feel dsell is scummy for taking the town cred he got on d1 and doing nothing with it. Town would want to use that town cred to be vocal and give solid reads, multiple people treated him as an IC(stupidly) an he did nothing.

[ashersky]

Dsell I still find scummy from lack of participation, his reads have just been all over the place (which in a way is kinda townie), his scarcity of votes (although it should be noted that his two votes were on Marquis--o... and he can't be Marquis anyways because of the NK interaction right?)

Given Maquis died last night, and Dsell got shot, MU shot Maqius and Maquis shot Dsell.  So yes, Dsell is very unlikely to be Maquis.

[ashersky]

Cuzz: Galzria, TheMunch, Glooble, liopoil, Robz888, ashersky
off cuzz: mcmcsalot, Jimmmmm, yuma, Dsell

Eevee: ashersky, TheMunch, liopoil, yuma, mcmcsalot, Robz888
off Eevee: Jimmmmm glooble, mcmcsalot, Dsell

Glooble: ashersky, theorel, yuma, liopoil, Robz888, Dsell
not glooble: TheMunch, Jimmmmm, mcmcsalot, glooble

Further to wagon analysis, I think we should look at Death Anaylsis:

D1: Town SK Cop is Lynched
N1: MU kills town Raerae; Maquis kills MU Galz
D2: Town Eevee is Lynched
N2: Town Shraeye dies.
D3: Maquis Glooble is Lynched.
N3: MU kills Maquis Munch; Maquis shoots Deathproof Dsell

I believe that, based on this, Shraeye was killed by Maquis Munch/partner, and that Glooble roleblocked MU.  Which is really odd to me, given we had that "one of the three has to be scum" thing going, so it was in Munch's interest to keep Shraeye alive.

[ashersky]

If anyone took any actions on N2 that could explain someone not dying, now might be a good time to say what it was.

[liopoil]

based on the flavor it seems both teams shot shraeye.

[ashersky]

based on the flavor it seems both teams shot shraeye.

Right, that was a possibility, too.  Forgot about that.

Did you just go back and check the flavor, or remember that your team shot him too?

[ashersky]

Updated Living:

1. ashersky - Maquis Cop/Worf (Confirmed NOT MAQUIS)
2. Robz - 1-Shot Tracker/Kasida Yates
3. yuma - 1-shot Lightning Rod/Elim Garak
9. liopoil - Neighbor/Rom (Confirmed NOT MU)
10. mcmcsalot   - Bomb/General Martok
11. Jimmmmm - Beloved Princess/Vadek Antos (Confirmed NOT MU)
12. theorel - MU Cop/Miles O'Brien (Confirmed Town)
14. Dsell - 1-Shot Deathproof/Jadzia-->Ezri Dax (Confirmed NOT MAQUIS)



Possible MU: ashersky, Robz, yuma, mcmcsalot, Dsell

Possible Maquis: Robz, yuma, liopoil, mcmsalot, Jimmmmm

Possibly both: Robz, yuma, mcmcsalot

[ashersky]

Wagons:

Cuzz: Galzria, TheMunch, Glooble, liopoil, Robz888, ashersky
off cuzz: mcmcsalot, Jimmmmm, yuma, Dsell

Eevee: ashersky, TheMunch, liopoil, yuma, mcmcsalot, Robz888
off Eevee: Jimmmmm glooble, mcmcsalot, Dsell

Glooble: ashersky, theorel, yuma, liopoil, Robz888, Dsell
not glooble: TheMunch, Jimmmmm, mcmcsalot, glooble

Deaths:

D1: Town SK Cop is Lynched
N1: MU kills town Raerae; Maquis kills MU Galz
D2: Town Eevee is Lynched
N2: Town Shraeye dies.
D3: Maquis Glooble is Lynched.
N3: MU kills Maquis Munch; Maquis shoots Deathproof Dsell

Claims:

1. ashersky - Maquis Cop/Worf (Confirmed NOT MAQUIS)
2. Robz - 1-Shot Tracker/Kasida Yates
3. yuma - 1-shot Lightning Rod/Elim Garak
9. liopoil - Neighbor/Rom (Confirmed NOT MU)
10. mcmcsalot   - Bomb/General Martok
11. Jimmmmm - Beloved Princess/Vadek Antos (Confirmed NOT MU)
12. theorel - MU Cop/Miles O'Brien (Confirmed Town)
14. Dsell - 1-Shot Deathproof/Jadzia-->Ezri Dax (Confirmed NOT MAQUIS)


Possible MU: ashersky, Robz, yuma, mcmcsalot, Dsell

Possible Maquis: Robz, yuma, liopoil, mcmsalot, Jimmmmm

Possibly both: Robz, yuma, mcmcsalot

Here's all the info in one post for us.

[liopoil]

based on the flavor it seems both teams shot shraeye.

Right, that was a possibility, too.  Forgot about that.

Did you just go back and check the flavor, or remember that your team shot him too?

This isn't anything new, we discussed this at the beginning of D3, and came to the conclusion that most likely both teams shot him.

[yuma]

So long-winded way of saying "yuma should definitely LR no matter what" which is why I think we should NOT lynch yuma today.

lol agreed, and I have already stated I find dsell scummier than robz, robz has been active and towny all game to me, dsell has been scummy and more importantly was given strong town status D1 and did nothing with it to help town, as opposed to theorel who used his early town cred(everyone had a town rad on him) and continued to be helpful all game.

well that is nice and vague.

How is that vague, I have had and still have a town read on robz, something I continue to be very good at guessing. I feel dsell is scummy for taking the town cred he got on d1 and doing nothing with it. Town would want to use that town cred to be vocal and give solid reads, multiple people treated him as an IC(stupidly) an he did nothing.

I guess what I am saying is that I am wondering if you have actually gone back and done analysis, looked at his posts, his voting patterns, his reads, etc, etc... or if you are just basing your read off memory... same thing with robz. I feel like a lot of people have expressed a town read on him, but haven't really said why.

[yuma]

well I feel like theorel's logic for not looking at lio should also apply to dsell and should also apply to mcmc. I guess that leaves robz and me. Time to look at robz eh?

[liopoil]

yes, great idea!

[ashersky]

So we're looking for 1, 2, or 3 scum in {ashersky, Robz, yuma, liopoil, mcmcsalot, Jimmmmm, Dsell}.

Our lynch pool for today is really: ashersky, Robz, liopoil, mcmcsalot, Dsell (removing yuma for LR confirmation tonight and Jimmmmm for Beloved Princess issuse)

From that 5, I would remove myself as the Cop.

So we have Robz, liopoil, mcmcsalot, and Dsell.

Arguments for each?

Mcmcsalot == As the bomb, isn't getting NKed.  We don't affect what happens at night, most likely.  Scum Bomb is possible in a multi-team scenario.  Also a good fake claim to keep from being killed.
Liopoil == See the long cases on him being the 3rd Maquis.
Dsell == Deathproof, did nothing with his town cred all game.
Robz == Playing town perfectly, could be him being great scum.

Arguments against:

Mcmcsalot == As the bomb, he could be town survivor for us.  Tracked with no actions taken N1 by Robz.
Liopoil == Theorel doesn't want to.
Dsell == ?
Robz == Towny all game.

If I had to order them in lynch preference order: liopoil, Dsell, mcmcsalot, Robz.

[ashersky]

I guess what I am saying is that I am wondering if you have actually gone back and done analysis, looked at his posts, his voting patterns, his reads, etc, etc... or if you are just basing your read off memory... same thing with robz. I feel like a lot of people have expressed a town read on him, but haven't really said why.

My town read on Robz has been based on his play all game.

A big thing for me has been his insistence that I am town.  I think he picked up that I was a PR (possibly cop) very early on this game.  I think scum!Robz kills me on one of the last three nights.  He doesn't let suspected PRs live.

[theorel]

I'm not really ruling out lio because he's only on one potential team (Note: I was initially, before we'd discussed the likelihood of triple-Maquis double-MU).

Assuming Galz couldn't (or didn't) shoot and cop in the same night, then we have a smaller pool of possible MU than possible Maquis.  Combined with the fact that we've found more Maquis than MU and know minimal information about the set-up...I feel like it's better to look for MU than Maquis.  Not just that we should ignore people that are unable to be on one team.

Also (@yuma), I'm now fully convinced that you should definitely LR tonight.  I think you left the doctor-situation out of your earlier considerations (which is probably why you were getting confused...)  But basically if there are 2 scum-teams left and you LR you guaranteed reduce us to 1 kill, if there is 1 team left and you LR then if Jimmmmm has shots left you guaranteed block the kill.  Both of these are sufficient benefit, even if I think you're probably town.  The opportunity to confirm you and eliminate you as a possible suspect is (at this point) more of a bonus.

Of course, if for some reason the LR fails my inclination would still be to believe you are lying scum.  (posthumously if it results in my death)

[ashersky]

I'm not really ruling out lio because he's only on one potential team (Note: I was initially, before we'd discussed the likelihood of triple-Maquis double-MU).

Assuming Galz couldn't (or didn't) shoot and cop in the same night, then we have a smaller pool of possible MU than possible Maquis.  Combined with the fact that we've found more Maquis than MU and know minimal information about the set-up...I feel like it's better to look for MU than Maquis.  Not just that we should ignore people that are unable to be on one team.

Also (@yuma), I'm now fully convinced that you should definitely LR tonight.  I think you left the doctor-situation out of your earlier considerations (which is probably why you were getting confused...)  But basically if there are 2 scum-teams left and you LR you guaranteed reduce us to 1 kill, if there is 1 team left and you LR then if Jimmmmm has shots left you guaranteed block the kill.  Both of these are sufficient benefit, even if I think you're probably town.  The opportunity to confirm you and eliminate you as a possible suspect is (at this point) more of a bonus.

Of course, if for some reason the LR fails my inclination would still be to believe you are lying scum.  (posthumously if it results in my death)

For possible MU, we have Robz, mcmc, and Dsell (excluding myself, who I think we don't want to lynch today).

Who's our best lynch for today?

I do agree that Robz's flip would tell us a lot, given how active he's been.  It's just that I still think he's town.

[theorel]

I've had a town-read on Robz all game too.  I think he's offered decent pro-town analysis, or at least it felt like he did.  But then, I had a town-read on him in VIII, and he was scum.  Of course, I had a town-read in XII and he was town.  So, I've come to the conclusion that I can't read Robz.  One thing in favor of Robz being town though, he believed (or suggested that he believed) that there was one scum in munch/shraeye/raerae.  They all 3 died.

I'm inclined to believe that Robz learned from VI that he shouldn't shoot the other scum team (since we lost that game so terribly).  So, if that read is genuine, I don't believe he would have shot them.  However, some players have been convinced that scum would be shooting for the other team (I'd need to review to find out who, mcmcsalot maybe?).  Whoever it is, might be framing Robz based on that information.  (if my memory is correct) That'd make for an mcmcsalot-somebody scum team.  If it were ashersky that would be terrible for town-Robz' reads, and I'd totally blame him for losing the game even if liopoil is the last Maquis and we could have lynched him.

[ashersky]

I've had a town-read on Robz all game too.  I think he's offered decent pro-town analysis, or at least it felt like he did.  But then, I had a town-read on him in VIII, and he was scum.  Of course, I had a town-read in XII and he was town.  So, I've come to the conclusion that I can't read Robz.  One thing in favor of Robz being town though, he believed (or suggested that he believed) that there was one scum in munch/shraeye/raerae.  They all 3 died.

I'm inclined to believe that Robz learned from VI that he shouldn't shoot the other scum team (since we lost that game so terribly).  So, if that read is genuine, I don't believe he would have shot them.  However, some players have been convinced that scum would be shooting for the other team (I'd need to review to find out who, mcmcsalot maybe?).  Whoever it is, might be framing Robz based on that information.  (if my memory is correct) That'd make for an mcmcsalot-somebody scum team.  If it were ashersky that would be terrible for town-Robz' reads, and I'd totally blame him for losing the game even if liopoil is the last Maquis and we could have lynched him.

I think we lynch Dsell today.

Dsell, what do you think about that?  Will it helps us catch scum, if you are town?

[theorel]

Who's our best lynch for today?

That's the question I keep asking myself

And basically I think it comes down to what you're saying.
If Town:
Robz: gives quite a bit of info.  Hurts to lose an active town-player.
Dsell: gives us very little except taking us down in # of potential MU.

Dsell is more likely to be a single partner to Galz than Robz.

Yeah, I think Dsell is the better lynch.  If his first post was a scum-gambit for town-cred it worked.  But I think we're at the stage where that stops being a driving-force of the game.
I'd still like to hear from yuma at least, since he was going to review Robz.  And if he's going to end up a dead town-player after tonight we really want all the useful info we can get from him.

Almost everyone seems to be somewhat in favor of a Dsell lynch, which makes me feel better about it, even if we're wrong

[ashersky]

Who's our best lynch for today?

That's the question I keep asking myself

And basically I think it comes down to what you're saying.
If Town:
Robz: gives quite a bit of info.  Hurts to lose an active town-player.
Dsell: gives us very little except taking us down in # of potential MU.

Dsell is more likely to be a single partner to Galz than Robz.

Yeah, I think Dsell is the better lynch.  If his first post was a scum-gambit for town-cred it worked.  But I think we're at the stage where that stops being a driving-force of the game.
I'd still like to hear from yuma at least, since he was going to review Robz.  And if he's going to end up a dead town-player after tonight we really want all the useful info we can get from him.

Almost everyone seems to be somewhat in favor of a Dsell lynch, which makes me feel better about it, even if we're wrong

Sounds good.  If yuma can get his Robz read in today, and any other information, I'd prefer we lynch soon.  This is a personal preference based on a huge V/LA coming up starting Thursday for a good two weeks where I'll have intermittent access.  I'll be less useful from the on.  Of course, if I die tonight, it won't matter.

[yuma]

working on it now... hopefully will be done by tonight.

[yuma]

Robz:

So one of my big things pondering Robz is that townRobz tends to die early. Not always, but typically. The longer he lives, the more likely he is to be scum in my eyes. But I am not sure if his play actually reflects that. Scum!Robz also tends to be on lynches more often than town!Robz.... from normal games (not counting blitz games) town!Robz has been on and alive for 12/20 for 60% of lynches. scum!Robz has been on and alive for 7/9 for 78%. That may not be a large enough sample size, but worth noting that scum!robz tends to be on lynches more often than town, and in this game robz has been on all three lynches...

But I mean robz has like 334 posts. And people are right, there is quality to it. there is his tracking of mcmc.... which I still think scumrobz could do, but does tend to lean more toward town.

there was this quote that felt off to me

To me, this just feels like m-xvi, where all my reads were wrong, day after day after day.

it just reminded so much of something he said in the scum quicktopic with joth in that blitz game where he said....

Just be your town self. Let's play this like its M-XII or M-XVI, if we were secretly scum in those games. We're just two town guys, having fun, mislynching across the board. Our reads are so bad! Etc etc.

Robz's reads haven't been all bad this game, he did lynch glooble, but I couldn't help but wonder if this was something robz decided to try again... thinking about it now I am thinking no. Especially since he just barely tried to pull it...

Man, sorry guys this is just a jumble. I am trying to hurry this and I shouldn't... but understand ash's RL concerns...

Gah! Robz reads townie for the most part.... I am starting to wonder if scum is in Jimmmm, ash... the two people we aren't considering at all today. In fact I would vote Jimmmm right now if it weren't for his PR claim.

But for now, I am not going to vote robz. I'll vote dsell. LALL. vote: dsell