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[Jimmmmm]

Hmm, well yuma's seemed kind of Towny to me lately, and unless he and lio are the last two scum (and they'd have to be opposite teams, so why would yuma try to derail this lynch?), there has to be scum on the lio wagon.

[liopoil]

maybe Yuma shouldn't use LR...

[Jimmmmm]

Jimmmmm remains an enigma.

What do you mean by that?

[ashersky]

Jimmmmm remains an enigma.

What do you mean by that?

I mean I still don't have a strong read either way on you.

[Jimmmmm]

Thought I'd have a look at Glooble's interactions with liopoil, and also Munch for reference.

TheMunch and liopiol I would say are a little bit scummy.

This is very interesting. Do we really think that Glooble would name both his scumbuddies together under "a little bit scummy"? Not sure.

On Munch:

I can't deny Munch seemed extremely eager to end the day, but I don't think his logic about Cuzz's claim was totally baseless.

I think Munch's scum-slip has some merit. I definitely understand his case, and ashersky's reaction looked really panicky. So Munch has risen in my estimation and ashersky has fallen, but I'm far from convinced.

I don't think Munch's initial argument was complicated enough to warrant the four pages of bickering it generated.

Is there scum among Munch and Shraeye? I have no idea. I think it's highly possible they're both scum, but on separate teams. That would make sense with shraeye getting the ball rolling on the Cuzz wagon, then TheMunch pushing it through at the end. But I think Galz technically started the wagon, so I'm not sure his teammate would have wanted to be on it, at least not as vocally as shraeye. If shraeye was on the non-MU team (Maquis, I guess, since if shraeye was SK I highly, highly doubt he would have risked leading a wagon like that) then I could see Munch pushing Galz's wagon through to lynch, maybe, especially if he had a legitimate scumread on Cuzz. That would have been a risky plan, but if Cuzz had flipped scum it would have made both of them look really good, so Munch might have judged it to be worth the risk.

You're not one of my strongest scumreads shraeye. I was just commenting on you and the munch because someone was asking what everyone thought about you two. If the munch is scum, I think he could be either type of scum. The way he pushed the lynch would have been risky if he galz's teammate, but its a risk I could see him going for.

Putting aside the wagons I'd say I have slight town reads on both of you. All jaws trying to say was that I didn't agree that one or the other of you had to be town. Given that we have 2 teams, I could see that, or neither of you being scum, or both.

Both:

I would vote liopoil to avoid a no lynch. I have very little read on him at all at this point.

Munch maybe. I'd have to think about it. Would prefer not to.

And the rest is on liopoil, who Glooble had only mentioned once until this point:

flavor names: woah, I didn't realize that. I actually did not remember that first post. I guess I contradicted myself. is that necessarily scummy though? I wasn't necessarily supporting it in the second post though, I just realized that it should be given some consideration.

The thing is if you actually have opinions on something you tend to me consistent about them. You say you forgot, but I think that kind of forgetting is more likely scum than town. As town, the first time it comes up you actually think "is this a good idea for the town?" and then you say what you think. The second time, even if you don't remember what you said before, you should still go through the same thought process and come to the same conclusion.

As scum, on the other hand, the first time it comes up, your thought process is more convoluted. It's "is this a good idea for my team? is it a good idea for the town? If so, is it worth it to grab town points by agreeing with it, or is it better to do what's actually best for my team? will I look scummy if I support this?" and so on. So when it comes up again, its much easier to come to a different conclusion about what your opinion is.

In other words, I find this pretty solid evidence. And given that ashersky is not going take off before we run out of time, I will go ahead and vote: liopoil

And.. I missed the day end. For what its worth, I think liopoil and ashersky both would have been better lynches.

Ashersky is a better option. So is liopoil, who a lot of you were ready to lynch yesterday.

vote:liopoil

That vote was pretty much to try to save himself, although he had pre-empted it.

[Jimmmmm]

To complete the trifecta, here are interactions from Munch's point of view.

Then there was a post later when he comments on a post by liopoil that feels buddying in a minipulative kind of way.

Trying to protect/portray liopoil as Town?

Glooble I'll give a hesitant town read if only because of his inactivity but everything that hes said gives me town vibes.

I will reread Glooble, because i remember very little.  But right now I'm opposed to lynching Glooble, when we have lynches that I think are very good.  Jimmmm and Cuzz are both good lynches in my opinion.  I don't understand why the Jimmm lynch isn't getting any traction as I still haven't seen a defense that makes me satisfied.

I agree with this 100%.  Now I appreciate the detriment of lurkers but the fact that there are real cases makes me less inclined to lynch the lurker (aka if there were no awesome cases going on then my feelings were different; also yes I am posting this having noticed Glooble has posted, but I haven't read those posts yet and I will respond to those separately).

What struck me as the most odd from the Glooble wagon is this post from Yuma:

now that is the sort of Day 1 case that I understand and can get behind. It isn't trying to make something out of nothing. (well it is because it is making a case out of lack of posts, but you know what I mean...) vote: glooble

I dont know what to make of it yet but I dont like it.

(Actually reading this now made me wonder why I didn't pick up Munch's scumminess from his unexplained backflip on me.)

I am meh about Gloobles emotional response.

Here's something to chat about. My wagon is Galz, Munch, shraeye, Glooble, liopoil, raerae and ash.

I'd like as many people as possible to say whether they have a strong townread on anyone in that collection (besides themselves), and why.

Strong town read?  Shraeye.  Opposite of a strong town read? Ash.
As for everyone else, Glooble hasn't said enough for me to have much of an opinion cause his emotional appeal doesn't count for anything in my book.  Galz is interesting.  Raerae is raerae.

Mcmc can hammer when he wants.

I am 100% against a liopoil lynch.

I am 100% against a liopoil lynch.

Why?

I do not think that he actually has a good chance of flipping scum.  He could flip scum but there are reasons that I dont want to talk about that indicate to me that he is not a good lynch candidate for today.

This seems to obviously be talking about the Neighbourhood.

well yes, it wasn't intended to be a terribly informative post. and I wasn't jumpig on Yuma's case. I was jumping on munch's case.

Maybe its that Liopoil was sheeping me that is causing me to think the way I do.

I do not want to have to choose between Liopoil and Shraeye.  I really dont think that liopoil is the right lynch for today.  However, What bothers me about the Shraeye case is everything that Shraeye has done I am also guilty of to some degree.  Just ofr some miraculs reason, Shraeye is getting shit for it and I'm not. 

I dont know what to propose as an alternative to make the choice not between liopoil and Shraeye.  I really want to lynch Ashersky but no one seems to behind this.  Liopoil, are you prepared to do whatever it takes to not get lynched like Shraeye?

I think I have strong opinions on my short list but a strong lack of reads otherwise.

I would be willing to lynch the following players if it meant not lynching shraeye or liopoil: eevee glooble theorel jimm robz

Munch seems desperate not to lynch liopoil. Is it a manufactured (or even genuine) Town read, or is he trying to save his buddy?

I'm here.  Bout to do a reread on the last few pages.  See if theres any merit to this Glooble thing.

[Jimmmmm]

So I think Glooble and Munch almost definitely have one remaining teammate. From my point of view, that's Robz, yuma, liopoil or mcmc.

Munch expressed a strong scumread on both Robz and mcmc, and a strong Town read on liopoil, and I think hardly mentioned yuma but when he did seemed to express a slight scumread.

Glooble expressed willingness to vote mcmc, was very hedgy about yuma, and started coming up with a scumread on liopoil which resulted in voting for him to try to save himself. He didn't seem to say much about Robz, but at one point called him his number one Town read. For completeness, he also had a scumread on me, which became "Still a bad vibe but don't want to lynch".

[theorel]

I'm still opposed to a liopoil lynch.

Thanks to Jimmmmm for actually rereading things instead of just looking at the end of day3, and sharing those results with us.

It sounds completely and fully (to me)like scum who actually knows someone is town trying to build town-cred by not lynching the town.  I think it would be useful to go back over the other potential-Maquis players and see if any of them shared that tendency (Day2/Day3).

I have a townier read on yuma/Jimmmmm for trying to derail this lynch.  I'd already expressed a hesitant dislike of the lynch, but was willing to be convinced.  They've convinced me that it's a bad lynch when they could have pushed for it instead.  We're at a stage in the game where scum really can't afford to be saving players unaligned with them, especially when additional information exists about those players.  Also with the even parity, scum is more likely to need to support a lynch to get it off the ground.  3 players (not counting lynchee) opposing a lynch means the lynch doesn't happen.

Given everything, I think yuma should use LR today regardless of whether we lynch town or scum.

[ashersky]

unvote

vote: dsell

I think lio is surely scum, but I know theo is def town.  So I'll follow his lead.  Dsell is #2 on my list of would lynch for today.

[liopoil]

Unvote

I'm worried about the fairly good chance that the following happens:

We lynch Dsell, who flips town
Yuma LR and dies, flip town
We lynch me, and I flip town
NK theorel or other towie, flip town.

and we lose...

If I am going to be lynched tomorrow I would rather be lynched today, so that you can lynch robz tomorrow.

I feel rather strongly about my scumreads on robz and mcmc.

I also think that perhaps Yuma should not LR so that ashersky can confirm my innocence and theorel can investigate someone too. The problem with this is that scum might kill one of the cops, although Jimmmmm might be able to save one. It is at least worth further consideration

[yuma]

I also think that perhaps Yuma should not LR so that ashersky can confirm my innocence and theorel can investigate someone too. The problem with this is that scum might kill one of the cops, although Jimmmmm might be able to save one. It is at least worth further consideration

I'll leave that up to theorel to ultimately decide... and I think he has already indicated that I should use it regardless. However, I think it only makes sense to use it if we lynch scum today. If we lynch town, I think my dying--as opposed to two townies dying--is better, although we do lose the investigative results.

And I would also say that in general, I would likely oppose a lio lynch tomorrow as much as I would today. I don't see him as themunch's partner and he can't be MU... so unless we get an investigative result that lio is scum I probably won't be voting for him tomorrow as well... theorel do you feel the same way?

[ashersky]

I also think that perhaps Yuma should not LR so that ashersky can confirm my innocence and theorel can investigate someone too. The problem with this is that scum might kill one of the cops, although Jimmmmm might be able to save one. It is at least worth further consideration

I'll leave that up to theorel to ultimately decide... and I think he has already indicated that I should use it regardless. However, I think it only makes sense to use it if we lynch scum today. If we lynch town, I think my dying--as opposed to two townies dying--is better, although we do lose the investigative results.

And I would also say that in general, I would likely oppose a lio lynch tomorrow as much as I would today. I don't see him as themunch's partner and he can't be MU... so unless we get an investigative result that lio is scum I probably won't be voting for him tomorrow as well... theorel do you feel the same way?

Yuma, in your first paragraph, you say it only makes sense to LR if we lynch scum today.  Then, in the next sentence, you make a good argument for why you should LR if we lynch town today.  Why the contradiction?

Your (seemingly slight) unwillingness to die for the cause is a scum tell at this point in the game.  Any real townie should be willing to die to win the game, since we are clearly ahead on the numbers and we are nearing being able to PoE to a win.  Lio's most recent post regarding lynching today instead of tomorrow earned him a few town points, whereas yours about not LRing did not.

[yuma]

I also think that perhaps Yuma should not LR so that ashersky can confirm my innocence and theorel can investigate someone too. The problem with this is that scum might kill one of the cops, although Jimmmmm might be able to save one. It is at least worth further consideration

I'll leave that up to theorel to ultimately decide... and I think he has already indicated that I should use it regardless. However, I think it only makes sense to use it if we lynch scum today. If we lynch town, I think my dying--as opposed to two townies dying--is better, although we do lose the investigative results.

And I would also say that in general, I would likely oppose a lio lynch tomorrow as much as I would today. I don't see him as themunch's partner and he can't be MU... so unless we get an investigative result that lio is scum I probably won't be voting for him tomorrow as well... theorel do you feel the same way?

Yuma, in your first paragraph, you say it only makes sense to LR if we lynch scum today.  Then, in the next sentence, you make a good argument for why you should LR if we lynch town today.  Why the contradiction?

Your (seemingly slight) unwillingness to die for the cause is a scum tell at this point in the game.  Any real townie should be willing to die to win the game, since we are clearly ahead on the numbers and we are nearing being able to PoE to a win.  Lio's most recent post regarding lynching today instead of tomorrow earned him a few town points, whereas yours about not LRing did not.

Sorry... I see that I confused things with that post... the contradiction wasn't intentional. I confused myself. Let me see if I can clarify.

If we don't lynch scum today (if we lynch town) there is still a good chance that we have two scum teams left alive going into tonight,. As a result we would likely have two night kills. Therefore it is better for me to use the LR so that we only have 1 NK and certainly won't have 2.

If we lynch scum today, there is less of a chance that we will have two scum teams, especially if that player is Marquis... Therefore my LR would result in a trade for 1 NK for 1 NK. I do think that my death is worth saving a cop (likely theorel) from dying. But it comes at the loss of investigative results.

Therefore we should only consider my using the LR if we lynch scum. Like I said before theorel should decide that and I will abide by it. If we lynch town today I think my using the LR is the obvious course of action, although again we should leave theorel to ultimately decide upon it.

My argument was intended to say we should not consider using LR if we lynch town, but could consider it if we lynch scum. I am willing to die, but I am not willing to die needlessly. Does that make more sense?

[Robz888]

Well, I haven't had time yet to restate the case against liopoil. I will try to get to that tonight. Warning, though: I will be extremely V/LA until Wednesday, and then again next Friday thru Monday. Bunch of seminars this week.

I'm still deadset on liopoil being scum, but it looks like I'm losing the argument.

I think Dsell is the most likely other scum, just because his power would make him a nice two-man scum team with Galz. But yuma's attempts to wiggle out of using his LR has read sort of scummy to me.

I will curse myself if mcmcsalot is Galz's partner, because of the tracking thing.

Since we know Jimm is not MU, I have to think he isn't scum, since I'm positive liopoil is the third maquis.

[Dsell]

I think Dsell is the most likely other scum, just because his power would make him a nice two-man scum team with Galz. But yuma's attempts to wiggle out of using his LR has read sort of scummy to me.

Dude, roles were assigned independent of alignment. If that is literally your only reason for thinking I'm scum (which is what you just said), that's a terrible reason.

[Jimmmmm]

I will curse myself if mcmcsalot is Galz's partner, because of the tracking thing.

If you're telling the truth there's no way mcmc is Galz' partner unless they have a third. Or I guess he could be a Ninja, but seems unlikely, especially with a total of 1 track for the whole game.

[yuma]

But yuma's attempts to wiggle out of using his LR has read sort of scummy to me.

Both you and ash have accused me of this and I don't understand it. lio brought up the not using the LR, not me. I responded by saying that I think the best scenario is for me to use it, but explained that in one there is the draw back of not having investigations and then left it up to theorel to decide.

How am I trying to wiggle out of anything. Like I said before I will activate the LR if it is the best course of action, I think it probably is the best course of action, but think that 1. theorel should ultimately decide, not you, not lio and not me. 2. that we should look at all the possibilities before we finalize. This is why I was panicked when lio reached L-1. We hadn't resolved the nights actions.

Now that lio is out of danger I am going to unvote and take a deep hard look at both robz and dsell today.

[mcmcsalot]

yuma I think I can understand what robz and ash are saying. If we lynch town, you using lr results in one less death so you should use it. If we lynch scum you using Lr results in an unconfirmed player dying(only if jimm has no more doc) instead of a confirmed town dying. There issue is that you should be in favor of dying instead of a confirmed town. I see your argument of using Lr provides no investigation but theorel is likely to die anyway and not get to tell us his investigation.

[yuma]

yuma I think I can understand what robz and ash are saying. If we lynch town, you using lr results in one less death so you should use it. If we lynch scum you using Lr results in an unconfirmed player dying(only if jimm has no more doc) instead of a confirmed town dying. There issue is that you should be in favor of dying instead of a confirmed town. I see your argument of using Lr provides no investigation but theorel is likely to die anyway and not get to tell us his investigation.

I understand what they are saying... they dont' understand what I am saying... that I think thebest course of action for me to use the LR [/b]regardless of who we lynch[/b]. I think that is the best option. I am simply saying that if we do that we lose the investigative results. We do. And I think that is a trade that is in town's favor, but it is still a trade that we--and specifically theorel--needs to analyze.

And anyways... if you want to tell this to someone tell it to lio who brought up the idea of me not using the LR in the first place! I was just responding to him.

mcmc who do you think is scummier, Robz or dsell?

[ashersky]

Sorry... I see that I confused things with that post... the contradiction wasn't intentional. I confused myself. Let me see if I can clarify.

If we don't lynch scum today (if we lynch town) there is still a good chance that we have two scum teams left alive going into tonight,. As a result we would likely have two night kills. Therefore it is better for me to use the LR so that we only have 1 NK and certainly won't have 2.

If we lynch scum today, there is less of a chance that we will have two scum teams, especially if that player is Marquis... Therefore my LR would result in a trade for 1 NK for 1 NK. I do think that my death is worth saving a cop (likely theorel) from dying. But it comes at the loss of investigative results.

Therefore we should only consider my using the LR if we lynch scum. Like I said before theorel should decide that and I will abide by it. If we lynch town today I think my using the LR is the obvious course of action, although again we should leave theorel to ultimately decide upon it.

My argument was intended to say we should not consider using LR if we lynch town, but could consider it if we lynch scum. I am willing to die, but I am not willing to die needlessly. Does that make more sense?

Yuma, you are still confusing me.  Read only the bolded sections, in order:

"If we lynch town...we would likely have two night kills.  Therefore it is better for me to use the LR..." -- Makes sense.

"If we lynch scum...LR would result in a trade of 1 NK for 1 NK..." -- I understand, but kind of disagree.

"Therefore we should only consider using the LR if we lynch scum."  This goes against the two lines I just quoted.  "If we lynch town today I think using the LR is the obvious course of action."  This makes sense, and agrees with your first paragraph, but not the line immediately before it.

Then you say "we should not consider using LR if we lynch town..." which goes against the thing you just said, and then "could consider it if we lynch scum" which is again, opposite.

You are confusing us with contradictions.

If we lynch town, you definitely need to LR to ensure only one NK tonight.

If we lynch scum, you could argue that no LR is the right move to allow for investigations, since the chance that we have two NKs is reduced.

However, if we lynch a 3rd Maquis today, you should LR anyway, to save Theorel.  He's the only one worth saving for sure at that point.  If we lynch a second MU, and he's sufficiently powerful, I think you LR to save me.  Because in either case, it's better to try and lynch with confirmed town alive on D5 instead of with confirmed town dead and you alive.

[yuma]

bolding fail... let's try that again.

that I think the best course of action for me to use the LR regardless of who we lynch

[ashersky]

So long-winded way of saying "yuma should definitely LR no matter what" which is why I think we should NOT lynch yuma today.

[yuma]

oh my goodness! I missed another "not" in there somewhere. I am sorry. See my above post to know how I feel about it.

[yuma]

So long-winded way of saying "yuma should definitely LR no matter what" which is why I think we should NOT lynch yuma today.

basically exactly that! except I am only listening to theorel, but I would advise theorel to have me use it.

[mcmcsalot]

So long-winded way of saying "yuma should definitely LR no matter what" which is why I think we should NOT lynch yuma today.

lol agreed, and I have already stated I find dsell scummier than robz, robz has been active and towny all game to me, dsell has been scummy and more importantly was given strong town status D1 and did nothing with it to help town, as opposed to theorel who used his early town cred(everyone had a town rad on him) and continued to be helpful all game.