So, why do I suspect Robz?
- He responded to Dsell's mild suspicion, first by ignoring it; second by being nasty back; and third by attacking him in return.
- He has not fairly met Dsell's core criticism: that Robz is acting exactly like he says the Mafia would act. Robz admits this, but asserts it doesn't matter, because why would he act like he says the Mafia would act? But this devolves into WIFOM* that I don't find compelling: Robz himself laid out those criteria, and could just as well be a Mafia acting in accordance therewith so he could claim (as he has) that he can't be Mafia or he wouldn't have laid out those criteria.
- His insistence that he is one of the town's most helpful players and so shouldn't be lynched. But he hasn't been helpful; he's been (in his own words) nasty, needling, and accusatory towards those who have dared to suspect him.
- His accusation that Dsell tried to preemptively defend himself in case of a mislynch. "Everybody remember that?" Actually, no, Robz, I don't. I remember you characterizing one of Dsell's posts as that, and I remember Dsell rebutting your characterization as inaccurate. And I definitely do not remember you fairly meeting the substance of his rebuttal. Or meeting it at all, in fact.
Okay, here is Dsell's weaseling out:
If I turn out to be wrong and lead your lynch and you turn out to be a townie, that would be very unfortunate. And I would expect a lot of suspicion to be cast on me, rightly so. But I trust that my posts thus far and future posts will be clear, well-reasoned, and show my support for the town.
And he did it again recently:
I'm going to be on and off today, but obviously I will try to follow this as closely as possible.
As promised, here's a short analysis of how well I think people might be playing if they were mafia:
Dsell: Again, biased. But IF I were mafia, I actually don't think I would be playing well. I've taken one of the riskier game plans, going after one of the strongest and most experienced players, who is excellent at defending himself. I started a campaign against him before anyone else had suspected him at all, or even had any reason to suspect him. I could have jumped on Morgrim or O, who have confuzzled a few people, or on Eevee for being "suspiciously newbish" or on def because "we can't reward the non-participants." But no, I jumped on Robz, and have been fairly relentless. Seriously, how bad would that look if I led this whole campaign based on nothing and then we lynched town? Pretty bad. Of course that scenario also works if I'm misguided town (I certainly hope I'm not) but either way that's WAY more suspicion than I would want to put on myself early on if I were mafia.
When I come up Town, Dsell is going to deflect the suspicion toward him by saying it was too risky and unnecessary for a mafia person to go after someone so strongly round 1. So he has his defense all planned. In that way, killing me is great for him, because it gets rid of a dangerous townie and creates a nice defense for him later: "See, I can't be mafia! I did this!" Not that this is essentially a defense I employed in Mafia II, by gradually trying to shift the opinion to, oh the mafia wouldn't have launched this campaign against Morgrim, it was dangerous and unnecessary, the non-Morgrim voters are the truly suspicious ones. When in reality, 2 of the 3 who strongly pushed for Morgrim were mafia. Dsell's mistake is that he is trying to do this before I am even dead and buried.
Robz says of Dsell, "he has a Robz888 focus and as Robz888 I don't get it." As someone who is NOT Robz888, looking at their discussion from the outside, I do get it.
And finally, here's the clincher, from Robz's most recent post about Eevee:
But what about Eevee? Do you see what I'm saying? Lalala I don't know what I'm doing, I'm just a cute Pokemon, lalala... and IT'S SUSPICIOUS.
I don't recall Eevee saying he's "just a cute Pokemon." I do recall someone saying it, though.
haha trying my best to be insightful and smart and coming out as silly, thats painful to hear
You are insightful. I meant that you are insightful and a little silly, which strikes me as mafia. But it could be that I am exaggerating how silly you are because you are a cute Pokemon.
Robz is accusing Eevee of doing something that, in fact, Robz himself did.
I didn't mean to imply that Eevee said he was a cute Pokemon. You're right, I said that, and sort of in jest both times. I apologize: You're right that I made it look the wrong way. That was unintentional. But my point about Eevee--that he wield his sheep-like attitude and his inexperience as a weapon--remains.
Volt, if I am mafia, I am playing a pretty sloppy game. Do I play sloppy?
Of course I don't expect to convince you. Yes, I'm accusing all the people who voted for me (well, not Captain Frisk), but I'm beginning to imagine a
Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss team.
They have certainly already begun acquitting each other:
I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).
A final impression: out of everyone else so far, Dsell seems to be making the most generally reasonable, well-thought-out posts. If I had to pick "most likely other player to be Town" at this very moment, I'd pick him.
I know what they will say, and I know what many of you will say: If they were all mafia, there's no way they would play so closely, or vote together so immediately, or invest such public trust in each other, because it would look two suspicious. I believe they are employing a double bluff (double, single, triple? I can't count). Because we would not suspect people who do that, for exactly that reason. I believe they are giving it a try--working in semi-obvious tandem, so in tandem that it can't be possible.