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[pingpongsam]

That is, if AHoppy is Town the behavior of either wagon doesn't look like anything scum would be trying to do.

[Jimmmmm]

You have proven my point exactly. I think the logical deduction is that AHoppy is likely scum precisely because of your line of thinking.

How?

[pingpongsam]

I think I answered your question right before you asked it.

[Jimmmmm]

That is, if AHoppy is Town the behavior of either wagon doesn't look like anything scum would be trying to do.

Are you basing this on anything more than the fact that AHoppy was nearly lynched but wasn't?

I meant, not looking like anything scum would be trying to do is precisely what scum try to do.

[Jimmmmm]

I think I answered your question right before you asked it.

I don't think you have. What exactly would scum be trying to do or not trying to do which is inconsistent with having two Townies up for a lynch?

[pingpongsam]

The D1 votes were almost entirely distributed between 2 wagons. The one wagon we know was on Town and also contained a Town vote. So the distribution of scum votes gets quite limited unless scum was voting off wagon which implicates TA but I am giving him a pass right now.

So yes, I am basing my assumption on the fact that AHoppy nearly got lynched but just couldn't. I thought this much was patently obvious.

[Jimmmmm]

The D1 votes were almost entirely distributed between 2 wagons. The one wagon we know was on Town and also contained a Town vote. So the distribution of scum votes gets quite limited unless scum was voting off wagon which implicates TA but I am giving him a pass right now.

So yes, I am basing my assumption on the fact that AHoppy nearly got lynched but just couldn't. I thought this much was patently obvious.

So who in this game, if they are scum, will always hammer a Townie given the opportunity, even if the alternative is another Townie?

Was there anyone else who was up for lynch during this time? I'll have a look.

[Robz888]

I kind of really like Jimm's case on PPS, especially the part about PPS calling yuma/Robz a town-on-town fight being analogous to something scum Teproc did in Chocolate Factory. That's a good catch, may be worth something, could point to scum yuma.

Also, I've read through a lot of long cases, and I feel like I can tell which ones are sincere and which ones aren't, and this feels sincere.

[Jimmmmm]

Still can't get used to you agreeing with me. I do lean Townish on you at the moment so I guess it's a good thing.

[Robz888]

Still can't get used to you agreeing with me. I do lean Townish on you at the moment so I guess it's a good thing.

Well, have some more of it, then: Paranoia about scum agreeing with you is a townie trait if ever there was one.

[pingpongsam]

I think I answered your question right before you asked it.

I don't think you have. What exactly would scum be trying to do or not trying to do which is inconsistent with having two Townies up for a lynch?

Explain me this. AHoppy was at 6 votes with intent to hammer. Why would scum pull out of that free mislynch if AHoppy were town? What happened instead was a sudden interest in making the Teproc wagon happen.

[Robz888]

I think I answered your question right before you asked it.

I don't think you have. What exactly would scum be trying to do or not trying to do which is inconsistent with having two Townies up for a lynch?

Explain me this. AHoppy was at 6 votes with intent to hammer. Why would scum pull out of that free mislynch if AHoppy were town? What happened instead was a sudden interest in making the Teproc wagon happen.

No, that's not what happened. What happened was a sudden interest in lynching me instead.

[Archetype]

Well, Jimmmmm, you have jumped higher on my Townreads. That case is worth the wait and is relatively convincing. I thought PPS was Town because he just couldn't be scum by he way he was acting, but that point you made about being so scummy that Town won't lynch you is a great one.

I've forgotten how we stand vote count wise, but I'll Vote:PPS

[Jimmmmm]

I'm looking at the details of what actually went down, rather than simply "AHoppy got intent to hammer twice and wasn't lynched".

The first time around, the vote count (according to yuma's quoting of sudgy) was:

Twistedarcher (1): Eevee
Eevee (4): Twistedarcher, Archetype, Jimmmmm, yuma [L-3]
AHoppy (5): chairs, pingpongsam, Teproc, Voltaire, scott_pilgrim, yuma [L-1]

Robz stated intent to hammer, and within 3 minutes both Voltaire and yuma had unvoted. Voltaire was Town, so no problem there. It seems fairly unlikely that yuma would put his partner on L-1 and then panic when someone announced intent to hammer. So from what I can tell, no shenanigans there.

Robz then received votes in quick succession from yuma, Voltaire, pps, Archetype.

I assume, pps, that you're excluding yourself from the shenanigans which saved AHoppy, so maybe Archetype was willing to put his vote on any other Townie to save AHoppy. Maybe.

Then more stuff happened, people voted for Eevee and Teproc, leaving the following vote count (according to Teproc, edited to include yuma's vote on Teproc):

Ahoppy (4) : chairs, Teproc, scott_pilgrim, Robz
Eevee (3) : Twistedarcher, Jimmmmm, Archetype
Robz (2) : Voltaire, pingpongsam
Teproc (2) : faust, yuma
Twistedarcher (1) : Eevee
chairs (1) : Ahoppy


Later AHoppy supposedly got back up to L-1, but it now seems he only got to L-2. I don't think it's that important though, since everyone thought he was on L-1:

Ahoppy (5) : Teproc, scott_pilgrim, Robz, chairs, pingpongsam
Eevee (3) : Twistedarcher, Jimmmmm, Archetype
Robz (1) : Voltaire
Teproc (3) : faust, yuma, Eevee
chairs (1) : Ahoppy

Voltaire (Town) stated reluctant intent, and he and Eevee agreed they didn't like the lynch. yuma suggested Teproc, whom scott changed to before any current suspects off the wagon other than Eevee and yuma posted again.

That's all I've really got time for now. How's that for actual wagon analysis pps? Do you conclude based on this that the scumteam must be AHoppy/Eevee/Arch?

[Robz888]

Meant to Vote: PPS, unless interest in yuma lynch increases.

[Jimmmmm]

It's now that I start getting nervous about whether or not I'm right about pps.

[Robz888]

? Quite early to start worrying about that

[Jimmmmm]

? Quite early to start worrying about that

I know. But I worry anyway when it's something that I've started and it's gaining support.

[pingpongsam]

I think I answered your question right before you asked it.

I don't think you have. What exactly would scum be trying to do or not trying to do which is inconsistent with having two Townies up for a lynch?

Right, I forgot about that bit. While I was serious in my vote on you from the beginning of D1 and thus also in this exchange I did consider all the other votes to be the type to prove a point not to actually achieve lynch. I'm not opposed to the notion that you and AHoppy are both scum and that your intent to hammer was to get the cred at the inevitable demise of your partner. As such you may have intentionally perpetrated the siphoning of votes towards yourself and narrowly saved your partner in the end.

I'll admit I'm back to wild-eyed and breathless conspiracies again but I wouldn't put it past Robz for a second.

Explain me this. AHoppy was at 6 votes with intent to hammer. Why would scum pull out of that free mislynch if AHoppy were town? What happened instead was a sudden interest in making the Teproc wagon happen.

No, that's not what happened. What happened was a sudden interest in lynching me instead.

[pingpongsam]

I think I answered your question right before you asked it.

I don't think you have. What exactly would scum be trying to do or not trying to do which is inconsistent with having two Townies up for a lynch?

Explain me this. AHoppy was at 6 votes with intent to hammer. Why would scum pull out of that free mislynch if AHoppy were town? What happened instead was a sudden interest in making the Teproc wagon happen.

No, that's not what happened. What happened was a sudden interest in lynching me instead.

Right, I forgot about that bit. While I was serious in my vote on you from the beginning of D1 and thus also in this exchange I did consider all the other votes to be the type to prove a point not to actually achieve lynch. I'm not opposed to the notion that you and AHoppy are both scum and that your intent to hammer was to get the cred at the inevitable demise of your partner. As such you may have intentionally perpetrated the siphoning of votes towards yourself and narrowly saved your partner in the end.

I'll admit I'm back to wild-eyed and breathless conspiracies again but I wouldn't put it past Robz for a second.

[Jimmmmm]

I did consider all the other votes to be the type to prove a point not to actually achieve lynch.

I thought you thought all votes were cast because the voter thinks the person they are voting for is probably scum?

[Jimmmmm]

Also, how can you be making these big assumptions about scum, and also be open to the idea that Robz was willing to hammer his partner?

[pingpongsam]

I did consider all the other votes to be the type to prove a point not to actually achieve lynch.

I thought you thought all votes were cast because the voter thinks the person they are voting for is probably scum?

I can't tell if you're being snarky to elicit an emotional response or if you really do like this protracted nonsense. It was evident from the quick succession of wordless votes that the majority of voters were doing so to prove a point. I, personally don't play that way and my vote then was sincere.

[scott_pilgrim]

Well, Jimm certainly did have content to post, so I'll at least unvote for now.

If TA is not scum then I think there would be a very good chance PPS is...

Can you elaborate on that? Without any substantiation it comes off as an attempt to line up two mislynches.

So if TA were to flip scum would you assume or just lean towards me being town?

No, I did not say if and only if.  I just said if TA is town, you are more likely scum.

Well, I guess what I am asking is whether or not you perceive the inverse to be true.

This looks like pps trying to gauge how he is perceived, which is much more important to scum than to Town.

In his defense, I kind of just threw out the idea that either he or TA was scum, without giving any detail.  I think it's reasonable for someone to push further on something like that.

Otherwise though I think I like the case.  I'm leaning scum on PPS right now.

[pingpongsam]

Also, how can you be making these big assumptions about scum, and also be open to the idea that Robz was willing to hammer his partner?

Isn't being open to the idea part of the assumptions? I'm not following your question. The fact is I am open to possibilities, none of which you seem interested in refuting or proposing alternatives to.

Your case on me, as I understand it, is that I am trying to mislead Town by making assumptions for Town to subscribe to. This would be believable if I were insistently arguing a counter to those assumptions. What's missing in that scenario is a counter. Where is the counter analysis on the D1 wagon?