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Author Topic: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Game Over, Mafia Wins!)  (Read 170312 times)

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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1475 on: December 22, 2013, 04:31:38 pm »

So far behind, I am Charlie bucket.

Anything esle I need to say? Let me know quick.
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1476 on: December 22, 2013, 04:32:50 pm »

So far behind, I am Charlie bucket.

Anything esle I need to say? Let me know quick.

No. We are not close to a lynch (unfortunately).
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1477 on: December 22, 2013, 04:36:53 pm »

So far behind, I am Charlie bucket.

Anything esle I need to say? Let me know quick.

No. We are not close to a lynch (unfortunately).

Oh :( are we winning?
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1478 on: December 22, 2013, 04:55:01 pm »

So far behind, I am Charlie bucket.

Anything esle I need to say? Let me know quick.

No. We are not close to a lynch (unfortunately).

Oh :( are we winning?

Depends on which "we" you belong to. You are a prime suspect. Basically, we think all the PR claims are true, meaning there are 2 scum left between me, you, Voltaire, Teproc, and manda.
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1479 on: December 22, 2013, 06:14:23 pm »

To have a complete list of who has claimed what:

Voltaire - Grandmama (from the Witches)
Walrus - Henry Sugar (from The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar and Six More) the Town Roleblocker*
Robz - Oompa Loompa (from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory)
Jimmmm - Grandpa Joe (from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory) the town Goon Cop*
ashersky - The Green Grasshopper (from James and the Giant Peach), The Mafia Goon
faust - Matilda (from Matilda) the Innocent Child
Jorbles - The Big Friendly Giant (from the BFG), the Vanilla Townie
manda - Mr. Fox (from Fantastic Mr. Fox)
Teproc - Danny, Champion of the World (from Danny, The Champion of the World)
morgrim - Sophie (from the BFG) the Town Tracker
2.7 - James (from James and the Giant Peach) The town bodyguard*
mcmcsalot - Charlie Bucket (from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory)

*not mod confirmed, but seem very likely according to most everyone.

Which puts our lynch pool at:
Voltaire
Robz
Manda
Teproc
mcmc

mcmc, can you give specific reads on the four people on the list who are not you.  While a full reread would be great, we need to capitalize on your time because you have been gone so long.  And welcome back.  hope you had a great trip
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1480 on: December 22, 2013, 06:18:17 pm »

So far behind, I am Charlie bucket.

Anything esle I need to say? Let me know quick.

Hey it's mcmcsalot! Tell us who the scum are.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1481 on: December 22, 2013, 07:44:09 pm »

specific reads?

What I remember/think right now

Town
Voltaire: helpful, though always
Teproc: seems buddy with volt though trying to be helpful
Manda: didn't seem to do much
Robz: Oompa Loompa is what robz would pick as his flavor, his most recent tone read scummy.
Scum
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1482 on: December 22, 2013, 08:03:33 pm »

by specific I meant "while rereading the thread look at them in particular"
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1483 on: December 22, 2013, 08:08:37 pm »

No-lynch is also a possibility, and should probably be done at some point.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1484 on: December 22, 2013, 09:00:52 pm »

No-lynch is also a possibility, and should probably be done at some point.
I don't want to no-lynch today.  I mean, it can be used as a tactic later, but right now robz, voltaire, Teproc, mcmc, and manda have a lynch pool of 4 people to find 2 scum.  pretty good odds if you ask me.  The rest of us are at 2/5.  Still pretty good.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1485 on: December 22, 2013, 09:03:23 pm »

I'm not really deterred from thinking its Voltaire and Teproc. Also, they really aren't trying very hard. Voltaire especially works really hard in his town games. Makes me more confident he is scum here.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1486 on: December 22, 2013, 09:03:56 pm »

No-lynch is also a possibility, and should probably be done at some point.
I don't want to no-lynch today.  I mean, it can be used as a tactic later, but right now robz, voltaire, Teproc, mcmc, and manda have a lynch pool of 4 people to find 2 scum.  pretty good odds if you ask me.  The rest of us are at 2/5.  Still pretty good.

True. But if we can't come up with a good lynch by deadline, no-lynch is a decent alternative. If we mislynch Today, we definitely want to no-lynch Tomorrow. Possibly even if we lynch correctly. Of course, no-lynch is also a great thing to do if we don't fully trust that someone hasn't fake-claimed.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1487 on: December 22, 2013, 09:04:19 pm »

I'm not really deterred from thinking its Voltaire and Teproc. Also, they really aren't trying very hard. Voltaire especially works really hard in his town games. Makes me more confident he is scum here.

I may lynch Volt Today, but I don't want to lynch Teproc.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1488 on: December 22, 2013, 09:06:52 pm »

When is deadline by the way.
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1489 on: December 22, 2013, 09:09:35 pm »

Vote Count 3.6

mcmc (1): Walrus
Voltaire (1): Robz
Robz (2): Jimmmmm, Voltaire

Not Voting (4): Teproc, manda, mcmcsalot, 2.7

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Day3 will end December 27 at 8:00 pm forum time. (10 days + 2 for Christmas)
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1490 on: December 22, 2013, 09:17:30 pm »

I'm not really deterred from thinking its Voltaire and Teproc. Also, they really aren't trying very hard. Voltaire especially works really hard in his town games. Makes me more confident he is scum here.

I'm LA, as posted in the thread, as has been said we have a small pool, I feel very good at there being scum among you and mcmc, and I have a stronger read on you after your behavior today. Teproc could very well be scum but he was RB/copped last night, so I maintain that it is very much the right call not to deal with him today. And manda is a town read among the candidates.

I am completely ok with the day ending at any point right now. No point in letting this drag on any more.

Unfortunately all the flavor claim seems to have taught us is that it was probably Matilda = IC. Though if it's not that I think it's Robz claiming a generic character because he couldn't claim his real scum one, though I'm trying not to have confirmation bias.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1491 on: December 22, 2013, 09:25:52 pm »

I would like to take both Teproc and manda out of the lynch pool for Today.

Teproc because we "know" (to the extent that we trust Walrus and me) that he isn't a Goon and didn't make the kill last Night. manda simply because I think we have better options.

Obviously if the other semi-ICs disagree or if someone has something super compelling about either of these two then that should be said. But otherwise I think our lynch pool for Today should be:

Robz
mcmcsalot
Voltaire

Hopefully this should at least help direct the rest of the Day and help us come to a great lynch.
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1492 on: December 22, 2013, 09:50:22 pm »

I would like to take both Teproc and manda out of the lynch pool for Today.

Teproc because we "know" (to the extent that we trust Walrus and me) that he isn't a Goon and didn't make the kill last Night. manda simply because I think we have better options.

Obviously if the other semi-ICs disagree or if someone has something super compelling about either of these two then that should be said. But otherwise I think our lynch pool for Today should be:

Robz
mcmcsalot
Voltaire

Hopefully this should at least help direct the rest of the Day and help us come to a great lynch.
I have already stated how my top two scum reads right now are Robz and Voltaire, so this somewhat fits with the way I am thinking.  I just don't think we should "officially" limit the lynch pool any more than it is right now.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1493 on: December 22, 2013, 11:43:28 pm »

I would like to take both Teproc and manda out of the lynch pool for Today.

Teproc because we "know" (to the extent that we trust Walrus and me) that he isn't a Goon and didn't make the kill last Night. manda simply because I think we have better options.

Obviously if the other semi-ICs disagree or if someone has something super compelling about either of these two then that should be said. But otherwise I think our lynch pool for Today should be:

Robz
mcmcsalot
Voltaire

Hopefully this should at least help direct the rest of the Day and help us come to a great lynch.

My name is Voltaire and I approve this message.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1494 on: December 22, 2013, 11:58:08 pm »

Sure, that's fine. But how are you going to pick between me and Voltaire?
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1495 on: December 23, 2013, 12:07:21 am »

Sure, that's fine. But how are you going to pick between me and Voltaire?
coin flip.  see this video (the relevant part starts at 3:00) for reference.
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1496 on: December 23, 2013, 06:52:40 am »

I mean, I'm fine with putting myself out of the lynch pool for obvious reasons, but I don't think we should take manda out. If anything, that's just encouraging her not to post. I also don't really know where the town read everyone seems to have on her is coming from.

Voltaire reread.

#230 Questions ash's justification for his lack of a plan.
#250 Post about the Jimmmm/Robz thing early on, but what's interesting to me is that he changes his mind in the middle of the post, which I think is something that town does a lot more than scum.
#315 Joins Jorbles in defending me after mcmc voted for me.
#334 Votes for ash for being too much in the background / not having a plan. Ash had no votes at that point.
#356 Starts PoE, crosses manda and Morgrm off his lynch pool.
#576 Catch_up post. Buddies me in a similar way he did in GoT, still finds ash scummy (but mentions that super scummy ash always turns out to be town), likes the "random lurker" Jorbles lynch.
#592 PoE. Crossed me in a previous post for being easier to read later, and 2.7 for his claim.
#624 Doesn't see the Walrus case (made by ash)
#648 Discourages a Tracker to counterclaim Morgrim.
#688 Comes out strongly against a Morgrim lynch, saying it "almost never makes sense to lynch a claimed PR"
#755 Changes his mind, sees the usefulness in Morgrim's flip, and says he's more likely to flip scum than not. Lynch pool is otherwise the same as before.
#766 Clarifies why he thinks a Mogrim lynch makes life easier for PRs : they don't have to target Morgrim anymore.
#799 Hammers Morgrim.

Day 2
#926 Catch up post. Finds ash scummy but says he could also be town tunneling. Votes Jimmmm for his attitude at the end of day 1, following Robz's reasoning.
#946 Unvotes Jimmmmm after finding out that he had misremembered one of his posts day 1.
#947 Crazy PoE. Crosses off Robz and manda for misreading the setup, 2.7 presumably for the claim, and ash for unclear reasons.
#958 Votes Walrus, sheeping mcmc.
#1110 Defends his Morgrim hammer by saying even if Morgrim was a PR there was no way of knowing he would use it in a way beneficial to town, and saying he was faking his own meta.
#1163 After Jimmmmm claimed, says we should lynch Jimmmm first because RB is more valuable than Goon Cop. Later votes for Jimmmmm, then unvotes when Walrus counterclaims ash.
#1205 Orders the non-claiming people from least to most scummy :
Robz
manda
Teproc
mcmc

Day 3 : not much actually, mostly defending himself against Robz and referring to Eevee's case against him in GoT again.

Ok, so the interactions with ash are puzzling here. He was voting for ash for most of D1 and constantly talks about how scummy ash is. There's a turn in day 2 (the Jimmmmm/ash fight) where he starts believing ash is town, enough to take him out of his lynch pool (!), and enough to make him want to lynch Jimmmmm before ash after Jimmmmm's claim. Rereading, I think I understand his case here better. It's just that he had a scum read on Jimmmmmm before the claim (because of the end of day 1), but believed ash to be town, so he wanted to lynch his scumread first. By the way, the Roleblocker being more valuable is true, but less important than scumreads at this point, which is why I disagreed and went for ash (I had a town read on Jimmmmm).

All of this to say: his attitude day 2 makes sense as town. It also makes sense as ash's scumpartner of course, since he would want to lynch Jimmmmm first then as well.

Basically these interactions are giving me nothing me more than a null read. The rest is comforting me in my town read. The way his opinion fluctuates within a post seems natural to me, and more likely to be done by town, he discourages any Tracker to counterclaim Morgrim, which scum would have loved to see (assuming they did recruit). The Morgrim hammer after coming out strongly against his lynch also seems a little too dangerous for scum to make in my eyes. I don't buy the "he's not incredibly useful and active so he's scum" argument. It was indeed made in GoT and just seems like a generally flimsy meta-argument.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1497 on: December 23, 2013, 08:24:38 am »

I would prefer the day keep going till I can reread. Even if I am going to be lynched(I have had so little reliance) I want to be able to give informed thoughts on everyone. That should come later tonight after my 6 hour car ride.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1498 on: December 23, 2013, 08:31:26 pm »

Drunk reread in progress, what's a vacation without a welcome home party.

(Really this is going to be interesting/difficult)
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1499 on: December 23, 2013, 10:46:16 pm »

- his claim can not be confirmed unless we have a night without NK.

Though if he is scum that could be his team no-killing to try to make his claim more believable.

I could actually see this being a scum/scum gambit since it involves ashersky...and Jimmmmm was the scummier of the two in my book.

^^Yes, wasn't I saying that this was more likely scum/scum than town/town, to me?

Definitely lynch Jimm, I think. If it's town!Jimm and scum!ash and ash gets away with this crap again, that will really really suck... but what else can we do? Jimm is just so so different to me this game. If he were truly the cop he should be playing his typical reserved self, to maximize his chances of living long. And Jimm usually lives a long time for precisely this reason. If you're a town PR, you picked the really wrong time to switch up your meta!

Yeah, so lynch Jimm.

Wierd, jimm looked the townier of the two post claim though could be biased
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)
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