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[ashersky]

Quote from: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:29:21 am
I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.

Traitor has Roleblock, too.  So I think in every case some kind of blocking is possible.  (It's either SK or Recruited Traitor, right?)

Witherweaver on D2 finding ways to explain away missing kills that are not the SK.  Makes sense to try and keep thoughts away from SK for as long as possible.

[Witherweaver]

I don't remember if I posted the thinking of this:

The most convincing thing for Eevee---that there was no kill the night he was Jailkept---isn't as convincing as it seemed to be.  Because whether Eevee or Faust is Mafia, the explanation for the lack of SK kill is the same.  The only difference is:

1) If Eevee is Mafia, Jailkeeping prevented kill.
2) If Faust is Mafia, Faust shot SK!Ash or Eevee.  First being most likely.

Is the second scenario much less believable than the first?  I'm not too convinced.

I think I had another post about tracing night kills.  If Faust is Mafia, then he doesn't shoot Eevee (because Eevee for mislynch).  So why no Mafia kill?  He shot BP!SK.  Not Eevee, so has to be Ash.

[Witherweaver]

Quote from: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:29:21 am
I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.

Traitor has Roleblock, too.  So I think in every case some kind of blocking is possible.  (It's either SK or Recruited Traitor, right?)

Witherweaver on D2 finding ways to explain away missing kills that are not the SK.  Makes sense to try and keep thoughts away from SK for as long as possible.

Doesn't quite fit with me bringing up SK multiple times elsewhere.

[ashersky]

I will say, on re-read, it's just really hard to find "SK tells" in posts.  They just don't happen that often, I don't think.

I'm focusing on WW's SK talk, mostly.

[Witherweaver]

Quote from: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:29:21 am
I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.

Traitor has Roleblock, too.  So I think in every case some kind of blocking is possible.  (It's either SK or Recruited Traitor, right?)

Witherweaver on D2 finding ways to explain away missing kills that are not the SK.  Makes sense to try and keep thoughts away from SK for as long as possible.

And wait, this is me explaining missing kills BECAUSE the SK is not killing.  I'm confused about your argument.

[ashersky]

I don't remember if I posted the thinking of this:

The most convincing thing for Eevee---that there was no kill the night he was Jailkept---isn't as convincing as it seemed to be.  Because whether Eevee or Faust is Mafia, the explanation for the lack of SK kill is the same.  The only difference is:

1) If Eevee is Mafia, Jailkeeping prevented kill.
2) If Faust is Mafia, Faust shot SK!Ash or Eevee.  First being most likely.

Is the second scenario much less believable than the first?  I'm not too convinced.

I think I had another post about tracing night kills.  If Faust is Mafia, then he doesn't shoot Eevee (because Eevee for mislynch).  So why no Mafia kill?  He shot BP!SK.  Not Eevee, so has to be Ash.

Which may be a fine argument in theory, but you are also trying to argue that I was shot last night by faust and survived due to BP!SKness.  So when was I shot, then?

I think we'd figured out that the mafia needed to shoot the SK for sure to have a shot at winning.  Did he shoot me on N4?  Or did he shoot me on N2?

[ashersky]

Quote from: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:29:21 am
I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.

Traitor has Roleblock, too.  So I think in every case some kind of blocking is possible.  (It's either SK or Recruited Traitor, right?)

Witherweaver on D2 finding ways to explain away missing kills that are not the SK.  Makes sense to try and keep thoughts away from SK for as long as possible.

And wait, this is me explaining missing kills BECAUSE the SK is not killing.  I'm confused about your argument.

You are bringing up the traitor's roleblock for the first time in this chain -- you are introducing an alternate reason for a lack of kill.  So it's classic misdirection (hey, look at this hand here with the coin so you don't notice me take your wallet!)

[Witherweaver]

I don't remember if I posted the thinking of this:

The most convincing thing for Eevee---that there was no kill the night he was Jailkept---isn't as convincing as it seemed to be.  Because whether Eevee or Faust is Mafia, the explanation for the lack of SK kill is the same.  The only difference is:

1) If Eevee is Mafia, Jailkeeping prevented kill.
2) If Faust is Mafia, Faust shot SK!Ash or Eevee.  First being most likely.

Is the second scenario much less believable than the first?  I'm not too convinced.

I think I had another post about tracing night kills.  If Faust is Mafia, then he doesn't shoot Eevee (because Eevee for mislynch).  So why no Mafia kill?  He shot BP!SK.  Not Eevee, so has to be Ash.

Which may be a fine argument in theory, but you are also trying to argue that I was shot last night by faust and survived due to BP!SKness.  So when was I shot, then?

I think we'd figured out that the mafia needed to shoot the SK for sure to have a shot at winning.  Did he shoot me on N4?  Or did he shoot me on N2?

No, Jimmm said he commuted, so Jimmm could have been shot last night.

[ashersky]

A WW joke from D2:

Nooooo vote my partners first

Really funny in retrospect now that we know he was SK the whole time.

[ashersky]

No, Jimmm said he commuted, so Jimmm could have been shot last night.

Right, but only by the SK.  Mafia had to kill the SK to win because he loses the auto-endgame.

[Witherweaver]

Quote from: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:29:21 am
I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.

Traitor has Roleblock, too.  So I think in every case some kind of blocking is possible.  (It's either SK or Recruited Traitor, right?)

Witherweaver on D2 finding ways to explain away missing kills that are not the SK.  Makes sense to try and keep thoughts away from SK for as long as possible.

And wait, this is me explaining missing kills BECAUSE the SK is not killing.  I'm confused about your argument.

You are bringing up the traitor's roleblock for the first time in this chain -- you are introducing an alternate reason for a lack of kill.  So it's classic misdirection (hey, look at this hand here with the coin so you don't notice me take your wallet!)

Uh, okay, but I was constantly bringing SK up.

[ashersky]

No, Jimmm said he commuted, so Jimmm could have been shot last night.

Right, but only by the SK.  Mafia had to kill the SK to win because he loses the auto-endgame.

Which is to say, faust didn't shoot Jimmmmm, he shot you or me.  And you or I shot faust.  (From Jimmmmm's perspective)

[ashersky]

Quote from: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:29:21 am
I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.

Traitor has Roleblock, too.  So I think in every case some kind of blocking is possible.  (It's either SK or Recruited Traitor, right?)

Witherweaver on D2 finding ways to explain away missing kills that are not the SK.  Makes sense to try and keep thoughts away from SK for as long as possible.

And wait, this is me explaining missing kills BECAUSE the SK is not killing.  I'm confused about your argument.

You are bringing up the traitor's roleblock for the first time in this chain -- you are introducing an alternate reason for a lack of kill.  So it's classic misdirection (hey, look at this hand here with the coin so you don't notice me take your wallet!)

Uh, okay, but I was constantly bringing SK up.

I'm getting to that part of the re-read.

Later in the day 2 discussions, you have a series of "hey, reading the setup is cool" moments.  You point out the SK's ability to trade kills for powers, and then go on to expound on each and every power he has, and then end that string with this:

Not that I really want to lynch SK today, I just wanted to point it out here so I don't forget it later.

[Witherweaver]

No, Jimmm said he commuted, so Jimmm could have been shot last night.

Right, but only by the SK.  Mafia had to kill the SK to win because he loses the auto-endgame.

So he shot you last night? 

You could have used 1-shot commuting or 1-shot BP in lieu of killing Night 2. 

Anyway, the point of that quote wasn't to argue that was correctly what happened Night 2; you had said I didn't show where I suspected you; I was explaining why I thought yesterday that you were the SK.

[ashersky]

WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

This is pretty awesome.

[ashersky]

I guess also.. if I was Mafia, I would probably just bring up Silver's SK thing in my QT later instead of point it out here.

Though I guess I could be SK, but then Faust would be SK hunting, so he should vote for himself.  Of course, he kind of already implied this:

WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Why is it okay for you to "SK hunt", but when anyone else thinks about SK's it's scummy?

This is also awesomely funny in retrospect.

Re-reading when you know alignments is fun.

[Witherweaver]

Anyway, I have to go.

To Jimmmmmm:

The principle piece of evidence is Ash being Jailkept Night 1 and there only being one kill.  That's not conclusive, I know.  The other thing that tipped me off to Ash being SK, other than the Faust being Mafia logic, was the way he handled the Eevee/Faust thing.  It read kind of off to me.. like not from a townie perspective.  He kind of didn't really care if it was a mislynch or not, then realized he really should care more.

I, on the other hand, obviously did not want a mislynch there.  Hopefully you can see I looked very Town trying to figure out if it really was Faust or Eevee.

[ashersky]

I will state again, re-reading for an SK is hard.

[ashersky]

Anyway, I have to go.

To Jimmmmmm:

The principle piece of evidence is Ash being Jailkept Night 1 and there only being one kill.  That's not conclusive, I know.  The other thing that tipped me off to Ash being SK, other than the Faust being Mafia logic, was the way he handled the Eevee/Faust thing.  It read kind of off to me.. like not from a townie perspective.  He kind of didn't really care if it was a mislynch or not, then realized he really should care more.

I, on the other hand, obviously did not want a mislynch there.  Hopefully you can see I looked very Town trying to figure out if it really was Faust or Eevee.

Actually, you are making the point that I'm the towny one.

I had written and didn't post multiple times that a mislynch was actually a good outcome for us.  Why?  Because it forced scum to shoot at each other, or at least deal with each other at night, instead of just picking off the towniest players, or shooting at Jimmmmm until he couldn't commute anymore.

And why didn't I post that?  I wasn't sure anyone else had actually picked up on that fact.  I wanted both scum to be gunning for the other on the lynch front, as I thought it'd help us overall with figuring out who was who.  And a scum lynch was not going to be a bad thing anyway.

I was also very sure of my read on WW.  Kudos there, MVP for sure, win or lose.

[ashersky]

Here's a later D2 post from WW on SK powers, completely backward from his previous expert knowledge:

Isn't it Mafia that is investigation immune and not SK?  Someone said it was SK.

[ashersky]

Oh, fullclaim, btw?

I'm Mission Jones.

[ashersky]

I'm on D3 of the re-read and man...WW is really absent after being a force in the game up to then. 

I also noticed he was super jokey all the first two days ... is that just his new thing?

[ashersky]

WW on the no-kill from N2:

Possibilities on no kill:

(I) NO SK:

(1) Eevee was the target by Mafia and Silver is telling the truth.  Doesn't make a lot of sense.
(2) Eevee was the killer and Silver is telling the truth.  Makes more sense.
(3) Jimmmm was the target and commuted
(4) Traitor did not know Mafia and Roleblocked killer.  (Unlikely I think.)

(II) SK:
(1) Eevee was the target by SK and Silver is telling the truth.  Still seems unlikely.. does it make sense for SK to target Eevee here?
(2) All of (1--4) by Mafia and SK chose to not kill in order to use an ability.  (Investigation immunity, for instance.  Or is that passive?)
(3) All of (1--4) by Mafia and SK also shot the same target.  Also unlikely.

All these cases are getting a bit rough.  Can someone make a table of each PR lying and what it means for the setup, specifically SK/no SK? 

PPE: Faust.  Also has a point on Jailkeeping that can be added to above.

Is he arguing for or against SK here?

[ashersky]

Anyway, there's very little "evidence" to go on, from what I can see.

I know it's WW because I know Jimmmmm is town.  WW will say the same.

Jimmmmm, I don't know what you are going to be looking for.  At least you've been in this situation before.

[2.71828.....]

Vote Count 5.1

ashersky (1): witherweaver
witherweaver (1): ashersky

Not Voting (1): Jimmmmm

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch. The deadline for Day 5 will be Friday, November 14, at 5:00 PM forum time. 

But don't make me give out prods to anyone.  Because I will.