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Author Topic: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!  (Read 174341 times)

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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1800 on: October 22, 2014, 06:58:03 pm »

People are making sense with this "silver is lining up the mislynches" thing.

Except if Ichi somehow flips town, we're definitely lynching Silver.  There's no other option, unless we move on to arguing that you or Jimmmmm is the liar.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1801 on: October 22, 2014, 06:58:36 pm »

phone posting.  no one hammer right away please. I'll be home and at my computer within the hour.

So you're good with a hammer as long as it isn't right away?
Well everyone acts like it's inevitable--and I've fought my mislynch hard this entire game. So what else is there for me to do? People have the facts, they just need to make the right choice.

I feel that silver is not only scum, but also breaching civility (an issue unrelated to alignment). So that's where my vote is.

Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1802 on: October 22, 2014, 07:00:50 pm »

comes off as really arrogant
Oh the irony!

ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1803 on: October 22, 2014, 07:09:50 pm »

phone posting.  no one hammer right away please. I'll be home and at my computer within the hour.

So you're good with a hammer as long as it isn't right away?
Well everyone acts like it's inevitable--and I've fought my mislynch hard this entire game. So what else is there for me to do? People have the facts, they just need to make the right choice.

I feel that silver is not only scum, but also breaching civility (an issue unrelated to alignment). So that's where my vote is.

I get that, from your perspective (either as fakeclaimed scum who needs to argue something or town) that it needs to be silverspawn who's lying.

You have to argue for Row 4 (Commuter, Detective, Psychologist) if you want to survive.  Same as Silver arguing for Column 3.

If we lynch you and you are town, we know it is Row 4 and silver is lying, and he dies.  He literally cannot line up mislynches unless you believe he's going to convince everyone to lynch another PR even though we have no more PR claims.

Like, let's play the Ichi is town game.  With the claims we have, Row 4 is the only possible explanation, right?

So on D4, what's silver's play?  We have (JK, Detective, Commuter) to marry up with a confirmed Psychologist.  That leaves Row 4 or Column 2.  Column 3 means Row 4 means Silver is lying, Column 2 means Jimmmmm is lying.

So he has to convince everyone on D4 that Jimmmmm is the liar.  But I've already shown today how it's extremely unlikely that Jimmmmm is lying.  After Ichi and Silver had claimed, if Jimmmmm is a Goon then it's MKT or 2-Shot JOAT, and he has a 50/50 chance with the Commuter claim of being caught, and that's bad.  If he's the Traitor, he has no knowledge, so he can't safely claim anything.  If he's the SK, he just claims VT.  A better fakeclaim for Jimmmmm was Watcher, which fit up to that point, unless he specifically wanted to disprove Silverspawn, at which point he claims Commuter.

None of it makes sense to me.  Jimmmmm's claim is most likely true, and Joth's even more so.  All this is to say that Silver is losing this if he's trying to get an Ichi mislynch through.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1804 on: October 22, 2014, 07:11:11 pm »

I forgot to mention, all of that arguing is moot on D4 for anyone because no one else claimed a PR, so unless one miraculously claims tomorrow to create another counterclaim situation, we'll know who is lying if Ichi flips town.

But really, I think Ichi is the lying claim.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1805 on: October 22, 2014, 07:11:15 pm »

People are making sense with this "silver is lining up the mislynches" thing.

what? I don't get that post in any way. firstly, I wasn't lining up a mislynch. Did I say I wanted to lynch anyone? I don't even know who that would be. Jimmm? I thought I made it clear that I try very much not to let my feelings about his person influence the decision this game.

plus, if ichi flips town, I know 100% that Jimmmm is scum, because I know 100% that one of them is scum now. lining up a mislynch doesn't make any sense.

that is, if you were even talking about Jimmmm. If you're talking about someone else, then I don't know who that is.

ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1806 on: October 22, 2014, 07:12:17 pm »

People are making sense with this "silver is lining up the mislynches" thing.

plus, if ichi flips town, I know 100% that Jimmmm is scum, because I know 100% that one of them is scum now. lining up a mislynch doesn't make any sense.


I just explained that this is what you'd have to do, and that you'd fail.

If Ichi flipped town, and you argued that Jimmmmm is lying and scum tomorrow, where's the third PR?
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1807 on: October 22, 2014, 07:12:54 pm »

People are making sense with this "silver is lining up the mislynches" thing.

plus, if ichi flips town, I know 100% that Jimmmm is scum, because I know 100% that one of them is scum now. lining up a mislynch doesn't make any sense.


I just explained that this is what you'd have to do, and that you'd fail.

If Ichi flipped town, and you argued that Jimmmmm is lying and scum tomorrow, where's the third PR?


Nevermind, Ichi's the third PR.  You'd be arguing for Psych/JK/Detective.  That does work if you are scum and lying.
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1808 on: October 22, 2014, 07:14:29 pm »

Quote
I just explained that this is what you'd have to do, and that you'd fail.

If Ichi flipped town, and you argued that Jimmmmm is lying and scum tomorrow, where's the third PR?

I was PPE'ing that post from you. reading it now.

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1809 on: October 22, 2014, 07:16:10 pm »

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That does work if you are scum and lying.
yea, i was confused for a moment. I know since the claims are finished that either Ichi or Jimmmm is scum. so, if town!ichi implicated scum!me, I'd already know that it must be Ichi, and it'd mean that I misunderstood the setup this whole time.

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1810 on: October 22, 2014, 07:19:59 pm »

not that it matters much (because we have a SK, if we mislynch once we probably lost the game anyway), but if we lynch Ichi and he flips town, would you rather lynch me next or Jimmmm?

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1811 on: October 22, 2014, 07:21:04 pm »

You know what, it's so, so unfair to say that you don't like how I play and you don't like me, but you won't tell me why. I'm guilty for what? Quoting ash without  keeping the whole quote in? Not being okay with him accusing me of personally attacking him?

You asked for it. Here why I find you dislikable in this game.

Here's what I'm thinking.

Ichi was the first person to actually claim a PR. If he is scum, then the add on is Traitor Knows Mafia/SK.
If this is the case, then it's reasonable to assume that Ichi is the Traitor, since he would then have the most information and be in the best position to make a logical claim.
If Ichi was the Traitor, then he would know that we have either Column 3 or Row 3.
If we have Column 3, Psychologist is a believable claim since from a Neutral point of view with the other claims, we could have Row 4.
But if we have Row 3, there is in fact no logical fake claim, and a Psychologist claim would quickly be found out against the three real claims.

If he was instead the SK, he would know we have either Column 2, Column 3 or Row 1. This would make Psychologist a reasonable claim for scum trying to mess up ICs, but not so good for a SK trying to stay alive.

So if Ichi is scum then he didn't have enough information to know that his claim wouldn't immediately be caught out.

If, on the other hand, silver is scum and knew that the Mafia knew the Traitor, then he'd know we have either Row 4 or Column 2, neither of which would immediately out a fakeclaimed JK.

In summary, Ichi didn't have enough information to make a safe (at least safe enough to not be immediately outed) fakeclaim, while silver did.

Vote: silverspawn

This was the first thing that frustrated me. why? because the presentation is lacking so much. you just write "this and that and stuff and because of that it's things"  and expect anyone else to grind through the setup to understand it. compare that to ash's posts, which explain everything in detail, post a copy of the setup, highlight parts, and generally make it so everyone has an easy time following them. with your post, you are just forcing us to invest a considerable amount of time into understanding your points, instead of investing time yourself to explain them better.

Okay cool. Ask for more detail and I'll provide it. I didn't realise people would have a hard time understanding it.

Quote
ash, that's a big wall of posts for a very wrong conclusion.

Based on this, I believe there is only one scenario where Ichimaru Gin fakeclaims Psychologist, and that is as the Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup.

False.

If Ichi was a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup, he knew that the Town PRs are either Commuter, JK and Detective (Column 3) or BP, JK and Bodyguard (Row 3). In the case of Column 3, which we now know is the real one if Ichi is lying, then he's fine, Psychologist is a safe claim.

But in the case of Row 3, Psychologist would be an absolutely disastrous claim. The four claims would then be BP, JK, Bodyguard and Psychologist, and there are no possible setups which have a Psychologist and two of the others - the only possible setup with these four claims is Row 3, which excludes Psychologist.

So a Traitor in TKM would absolutely not claim Psychologist without more information about what other roles are present.

ash arguing otherwise is extremely scummy.

And this. As I just said (and said before), ash's setup analysis posts were great. you don't acknowledge that at all. If I were ash, this line alone

ash, that's a big wall of posts for a very wrong conclusion.

Would have hurt my feelings. You can argue all you want that it was directed at his posts, not at him, but that doesn't change the fact that it would have legitimately hurt me. Why is the "very" in there. Why do you have to reference his posts as "a big wall of text". That's just so incredibly inappropriate. and than the last line:

ash arguing otherwise is extremely scummy

just comes off as really arrogant. and towards ash, that's saying something. Honestly, I think this is almost blatant disrespect for his skill. If you posted such an answer to one of my posts, I would not be offended, because I'm new at mafia. I think it's comparable to when I post a game analysis of dominion and then you come and say "false."

And to clarify, I'm not saying that you need to be super careful not to be insulting every time you disagree with ash on something mafia related. Don't pull this out of context. It all depends on the specific case. You could have said something like "Mh... I don't think that's right. If .... " and then made your point. And for the last line, you could have said "I actually think that ash arguing otherwise is extremely scummy." That would have conveyed an equal amount of information. And ash didn't even address you before, you really have no excuse for being so rude.

Okay, I can see where you're coming from. I was admittedly a little abrupt and I guess that came from being frustrated at not being understood after I think multiple attempts to explain myself. I guess it was also from the fact that ash had quoted my post, said "I like this type of thinking", and then basically dismissed everything I said.

Quote
So it was a 1 in 5 chance he gets caught immediately.

Wrong. In the even of a massclaim Today, which had already been proposed, he had a 1 in 2 chance of being automatically lynched Today, and a 1 in 2 chance of being part of a 1 scum in 3. That's a 1 in 3 chance of surviving the Day. Scum don't willingly give themselves a 1 in 3 chance of surviving.

same thing again. start an answer with "wrong."

Yeah okay, he was in my mind wrong. I could have beaten around the bush about it and maybe I should learn that with certain people you have to.

Quote
I am arguing that, AT THE TIME OF HIS CLAIM, he made the safest claim he could if he is a Traitor in TKM.

Wrong. The safest claim would be VT. Another safer option would be withhold claiming entirely, especially since (if I remember the timing rightly) I had already proposed a massclaim and probably seemed fairly likely to claim willingly.

Okay, I should have written out "safest PR fake claim he could make" instead of just claim.  But now you are just making arguments to try to belittle me, and I don't appreciate it.  You knew exactly what I mean when I wrote it in the context of my entire post.  But you pulled out a single line and make a statement such as yours to try and make me look stupid and idiotic.  Thanks.

Civility remember. Don't try to make things personal when they're not.

My point is valid - if scum he didn't have to claim a PR, and he certainly didn't have to claim when he did.

And this. What happened here is, ash posted something, he was slightly unspecific about a small thing that was clear from the context anyway, you are quoting this part and giving a response, completely unnecessary in my mind.

I disagree. And okay I guess I disagree with more of the post than I quoted. I firmly believe that if Ichi was scum he would have either claimed VT since there was no safe PR claim at that time, or waited for other claims before claiming himself. ash said (paraphrased) "He took a gamble by claiming a PR and Psychologist was his best option" and yeah I only quoted the second half of that so maybe I should have said, "That would have been a really terrible gamble given that he would have had no good PRs to claim and he would have had much better options than to take that unnecessary gamble. So even if I acknowledged the part I didn't quote, my response still would have effectively been the same.

Quote
I like ash's response though. I think it's just as offensive as it is appropriate here, and this part

You knew exactly what I mean when I wrote it in the context of my entire post.  But you pulled out a single line and make a statement such as yours to try and make me look stupid and idiotic.  Thanks.

is just nailing it. That's exactly what happened.

That's not what happened at all, and I take issue with you and ash presuming to know what my intentions are. I did not intentionally take ash out of context, and I still don't believe I did. And I certainly did not try to make him look stupid and idiotic.

Quote
And then... the first thing in your response is "Civility remember".

Yep. I can't remember if you were involved in Chocolate Factory, but basically I had this big argument with ash in which he repeatedly said I was personally attacking him, which I wasn't at all, and ended up making me feel like I couldn't say anything against him because he would accuse me of being personal if he did. So what I was thinking was, "Here we go again". In Chocolate Factory it was ash who brought up civility and seemed to be going in that direction again. In pointing out civility I was making the point that civility problems have tended to occur because people have wrongly assumed they are being personally attacked, not because they are actually being personally attacked.

Quote
Just. why. i... omfg. i hate this kind of arguing. you are making a comment that's unnecessary, and easily offensive, ash answers in an honest way, and you immediately pull the civility card, just because his post happens to be more outside of the civility pledge. I actually respect people who don't try to hide themselves behind the pledge by smoothing their syntax in a way that avoids stepping over specific rules, but instead just say what they want to say. because, whether or not a post is "legal" according to a stupid civility pledge doesn't tell you anything about how offending it really is. you can hurt others plenty without stepping beyond the pledge, and in fact, I think you did that several times. Hiding behind the pledge after making these kinds of posts is just pathetic. And I'm sorry, but that's the only word that honestly reflects my feelings here.

I don't want to grind through the whole discussion, that would take a long time, let's just say that there is more.

But then, after the discussion, you are like "hey, I didn't do anything wrong, how can you side with ash here?" I already said this, I'll say it again, this is absurd. If someone is having a heated argument, how likely do you think it is that he doesn't consider himself having acted morally superior? I'm almost 100% sure that ash thought that. and yet, did he try to influence us into disliking you? no. he didn't.

Moral superiority didn't cross my mind. I simply felt like I was once again being wrongfully accused of being personal, and expressing that I'm not okay with that.

Quote
Also, why are you forcing me to write this. What good could possibly come from me explaining why exactly I don't like you. I was just being honest, and it was a fact relevant to the game. Saying "I don't like you" is not an Insult, it's Honesty.

I guess we disagree on that, but I'm not going to make a big deal out of it.

Quote
I don't back down from discussions though. You requested an answer, so here it is.

I really appreciate it. We disagree on a fair bit, but that is so much better than simply saying you don't like me and leaving it at that.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1812 on: October 22, 2014, 07:30:02 pm »

People are making sense with this "silver is lining up the mislynches" thing.

Except if Ichi somehow flips town, we're definitely lynching Silver.  There's no other option, unless we move on to arguing that you or Jimmmmm is the liar.

That's why he has to push Jimmmmm, at least as viable for tomorrow.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1813 on: October 22, 2014, 07:31:05 pm »

not that it matters much (because we have a SK, if we mislynch once we probably lost the game anyway), but if we lynch Ichi and he flips town, would you rather lynch me next or Jimmmm?

You.

In the breakdown of each claim, you came second after Ichi.  Jimmmmm has some points, like you claiming to fight the IC issue for example.  There's also the whole lying since day 1 thing.

But as it stands, I believe you over Ichi right now.  I believe Jimmmmm over both of you, and I believe joth over everyone else.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1814 on: October 22, 2014, 07:33:13 pm »

People are making sense with this "silver is lining up the mislynches" thing.

Except if Ichi somehow flips town, we're definitely lynching Silver.  There's no other option, unless we move on to arguing that you or Jimmmmm is the liar.

That's why he has to push Jimmmmm, at least as viable for tomorrow.

Yeah, I got there eventually with my analysis.

But I don't see any of us believing him and switching to Jimmmmm.  He has to try though.

This is all hypothetical anyway.

Turn it around -- if we lynch Silver, and he's really the town JK, we've lost a lot more AND we're in no better position, that right now.  We still lynch Ichi, but lost the ability to stop a kill, which is important given we think there are two.

(Although in Row 4, there's no SK, so not AS important, I guess.)
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1815 on: October 22, 2014, 07:39:22 pm »

I am not lining up a Jimmm lynch. Where is this coming from? I mean, it doesn't matter, but why are you saying this?  You should know me well enough by now to know that I separate these things. My post towards Jimmm wasn't about his alignment. I know that either Jimmm or Ichi is scum. It doesn't make any sense for me to argue in a hypothetical case of lynched!town!Ichi, because I know at that point that Jimmm is scum. Please stop saying that I'm trying to line up a Jimmm lynch.

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1816 on: October 22, 2014, 07:48:08 pm »

I am not lining up a Jimmm lynch. Where is this coming from? I mean, it doesn't matter, but why are you saying this?  You should know me well enough by now to know that I separate these things. My post towards Jimmm wasn't about his alignment. I know that either Jimmm or Ichi is scum. It doesn't make any sense for me to argue in a hypothetical case of lynched!town!Ichi, because I know at that point that Jimmm is scum. Please stop saying that I'm trying to line up a Jimmm lynch.

You're just agreeing with us.  You'll have to convince us that Jimmmmm is scum if Ichi turns town.

The point is, if one of you is scum, you know you're in that situation.  This could affect your thoughts, and hence your posts .
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1817 on: October 22, 2014, 07:53:31 pm »

You'll have to convince us that Jimmmmm is scum if Ichi turns town.

uh, no? I don't have to do that. I'm totally fine with being lynched if we mislynch Ichi today. I think we're at lylo anyway, so it doesn't make a difference. plus, I said earlier in the day, if one town dies, you can lynch me.

I just don't like it when you say I do X when I really don't do X.

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1818 on: October 22, 2014, 11:21:23 pm »

ok, I'm back. intent to hammer TONIGHT in the next hour.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1819 on: October 22, 2014, 11:30:49 pm »

Cool.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1820 on: October 22, 2014, 11:40:06 pm »

You'll have to convince us that Jimmmmm is scum if Ichi turns town.

uh, no? I don't have to do that. I'm totally fine with being lynched if we mislynch Ichi today. I think we're at lylo anyway, so it doesn't make a difference. plus, I said earlier in the day, if one town dies, you can lynch me.

I just don't like it when you say I do X when I really don't do X.

Huh?  Makes no sense. If you're town, mislynching someone then lynching you is basically a loss.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start
« Reply #1821 on: October 22, 2014, 11:53:54 pm »

So...no vote count in like 7 pages, so here's the latest.
 
silverspawn (1): Jimmmmm, Ichi
Ichimaru Gin (4): ashersky, Eevee, silverspawn, witherweaver (L-1)
Eevee (2): jotheonah, faust

Not Voting (0):

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.  The deadline for Day 3 will be Monday, October 27 at 5 pm forum time.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start
« Reply #1822 on: October 22, 2014, 11:56:26 pm »

Vote Count 3.5
 
silverspawn (2): Jimmmmm, Ichimaru Gin
Ichimaru Gin (4): ashersky, Eevee, silverspawn, witherweaver (L-1)
Eevee (2): jotheonah, faust

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.  The deadline for Day 3 will be Monday, October 27 at 5 pm forum time.
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1823 on: October 23, 2014, 12:07:22 am »

ok, I'm back. intent to hammer TONIGHT in the next hour.
gotcha.

I think town can still win this even with my mislynch, so that's something. Sorry I wasn't able to convince you guys of the truth.

ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1824 on: October 23, 2014, 12:19:21 am »

ok, I'm back. intent to hammer TONIGHT in the next hour.
gotcha.

I think town can still win this even with my mislynch, so that's something. Sorry I wasn't able to convince you guys of the truth.

Well, he has like 2 minutes if he's going to lynch in the next hour.
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f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

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