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Author Topic: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (g@me over)  (Read 206867 times)

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Awaclus

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #350 on: January 02, 2017, 03:59:58 pm »

That depends. If we're sure that Joseph is scum, we can lynch him regardless of his claim, so that the town UB doesn't have to claim.
That's good critical thinking, but I doubt scum!Joseph would claim UB. Claiming any other PR seems better.

Not necessarily. I think the most important aspect of fakeclaiming a PR is that someone will have to counterclaim. Claiming something "safe" wouldn't make that happen, and it might not help him survive without getting lynched either.
Much safer to just claim VT, or a PR and hope that not enough people have that role.
Yeah but then you wouldn't be able to out PRs.
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Awaclus

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #351 on: January 02, 2017, 04:00:42 pm »

Why are you even arguing this point if you really are the UB? It's not like you're going to get lynched if there's no counterclaim.
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Robz888

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #352 on: January 02, 2017, 04:08:14 pm »

Awaclus, are you keeping your vote on Joseph?
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Awaclus

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #353 on: January 02, 2017, 04:49:49 pm »

What does it look like?
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Robz888

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #354 on: January 02, 2017, 04:51:56 pm »

You know, I think there's a good chance Joseph thought he was going down anyway and just wanted to out the UB. Let's not give him the luxury of that. Vote: Joseph
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Joseph2302

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #355 on: January 02, 2017, 05:04:15 pm »

Why are you even arguing this point if you really are the UB? It's not like you're going to get lynched if there's no counterclaim.
Because why do you think I'm lying?

Either:
(1). You're wrong, because I'm telling the truth
(2). You're scum looking for an easy mislynch
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #356 on: January 02, 2017, 05:41:29 pm »

OMG Joseph is lying I have no idea how no one has pointed this out so far!!!! The UB is the most perfect role for a scum to claim because if you claim another Pr then you have to say what you do overnight but the Ub as long as no PR dies is just a VT so no one can can counter anything he says. I also think the actual Ub is smart enough to know that if he/she/they counterclaims he/she/they is dead therefore he or she  or they didn't claim. I say let's lynch Joseph and if he is the Ub then that's bad town play. Also TWM people on here don't trust Pr claims.
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Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #357 on: January 02, 2017, 05:52:29 pm »

Joseph may be scum. HOWEVER, if he is scum and he claimed a UB, that isn't a claim to survive, it's a claim to die and out a PR with your death.

This means that if Joseph is trying to survive, a UB claim is the absolute WORST claim for him to make.

However, if Joseph is trying to out a PR, a UB claim is the absolute BEST claim for him to make (because there's a very, very good chance there is a UB in the setup).

Which brings us to this: Has scum!Joseph resigned himself to a death, and he's just trying to get as much as he can out of that death?

I think the answer to that question is 'no.' Hence me not voting Joseph.
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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #358 on: January 02, 2017, 05:57:20 pm »

Joseph may be scum. HOWEVER, if he is scum and he claimed a UB, that isn't a claim to survive, it's a claim to die and out a PR with your death.

This means that if Joseph is trying to survive, a UB claim is the absolute WORST claim for him to make.

However, if Joseph is trying to out a PR, a UB claim is the absolute BEST claim for him to make (because there's a very, very good chance there is a UB in the setup).

Which brings us to this: Has scum!Joseph resigned himself to a death, and he's just trying to get as much as he can out of that death?

I think the answer to that question is 'no.' Hence me not voting Joseph.
I would say yes because he's resigned to more stunts and now is done trying to find scum and is accusing people of being scum hence trying to cause chaos on his way out.


[/quote]
Because why do you think I'm lying?

Either:
(1). You're wrong, because I'm telling the truth
(2). You're scum looking for an easy mislynch
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

Robz888

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #359 on: January 02, 2017, 05:59:25 pm »

Joseph may be scum. HOWEVER, if he is scum and he claimed a UB, that isn't a claim to survive, it's a claim to die and out a PR with your death.

This means that if Joseph is trying to survive, a UB claim is the absolute WORST claim for him to make.

However, if Joseph is trying to out a PR, a UB claim is the absolute BEST claim for him to make (because there's a very, very good chance there is a UB in the setup).

Which brings us to this: Has scum!Joseph resigned himself to a death, and he's just trying to get as much as he can out of that death?

I think the answer to that question is 'no.' Hence me not voting Joseph.

I think it's also possible he didn't understand why UB was a bad claim.
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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #360 on: January 02, 2017, 06:03:33 pm »

Joseph may be scum. HOWEVER, if he is scum and he claimed a UB, that isn't a claim to survive, it's a claim to die and out a PR with your death.

This means that if Joseph is trying to survive, a UB claim is the absolute WORST claim for him to make.

However, if Joseph is trying to out a PR, a UB claim is the absolute BEST claim for him to make (because there's a very, very good chance there is a UB in the setup).

Which brings us to this: Has scum!Joseph resigned himself to a death, and he's just trying to get as much as he can out of that death?

I think the answer to that question is 'no.' Hence me not voting Joseph.

I think it's also possible he didn't understand why UB was a bad claim.
He's played a decent amount of game's and he's also not known for not reading/being bad the setup like some players so i don't think so.
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Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #361 on: January 02, 2017, 06:10:51 pm »

You know, I think there's a good chance Joseph thought he was going down anyway and just wanted to out the UB. Let's not give him the luxury of that. Vote: Joseph

That's L-1, right?

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #362 on: January 02, 2017, 06:13:46 pm »

I am not sure if I like lynching without a counter claim. Seems high risk. I guess a high risk would be more worthwhile earlier but it still makes me nervous.

If we do have a counter claim what is the worst thing that could happen? We lose the UB? Are we even sure to lose the UB given potentail power roles? That seems like worth trading for an assured correct lynch.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #363 on: January 02, 2017, 06:18:28 pm »

Ok. Pretty decent chance there is at least a 1-shot strong-man (2/3) vs smallish chance there are two protective roles. So if a counter claim occurs I guess said person wouldn't have a super high likelihood of surviving the night. But so to would Joseph if he is the UB and isn't lynched tonight.

It seems like we are likely losing our UB today or tonight either way?
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Robz888

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #364 on: January 02, 2017, 06:22:37 pm »

I think we're probably losing our UB either way, but lynching scum Day 1 is HUUUUUGE. Cannot be overstated how important it is. It's worth taking chances to get it.
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #365 on: January 02, 2017, 06:25:01 pm »

I think we're probably losing our UB either way, but lynching scum Day 1 is HUUUUUGE. Cannot be overstated how important it is. It's worth taking chances to get it.

I guess I don't understand that. If you get a lynch Day1 and miss Day2 you would be in the same spot as you would be if you miss Day1 and get a lynch Day2.

Can you explain further? Or is it just that it makes getting a correct lynch Day2 more likely.

Conversely I feel like losing a PR Day1 is nearly as HUUUGE (two less Us) in a negative way.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Robz888

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #366 on: January 02, 2017, 06:29:30 pm »

I think we're probably losing our UB either way, but lynching scum Day 1 is HUUUUUGE. Cannot be overstated how important it is. It's worth taking chances to get it.

I guess I don't understand that. If you get a lynch Day1 and miss Day2 you would be in the same spot as you would be if you miss Day1 and get a lynch Day2.

Can you explain further? Or is it just that it makes getting a correct lynch Day2 more likely.

Conversely I feel like losing a PR Day1 is nearly as HUUUGE (two less Us) in a negative way.

Well, games that successfully lynched scum Day 1 are waaaaay more likely to result in town victories than other games.
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #367 on: January 02, 2017, 06:34:14 pm »

I think we're probably losing our UB either way, but lynching scum Day 1 is HUUUUUGE. Cannot be overstated how important it is. It's worth taking chances to get it.

I guess I don't understand that. If you get a lynch Day1 and miss Day2 you would be in the same spot as you would be if you miss Day1 and get a lynch Day2.

Can you explain further? Or is it just that it makes getting a correct lynch Day2 more likely.

Conversely I feel like losing a PR Day1 is nearly as HUUUGE (two less Us) in a negative way.

Well, games that successfully lynched scum Day 1 are waaaaay more likely to result in town victories than other games.

What about games where a power role is lynched Day1?
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Robz888

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #368 on: January 02, 2017, 06:38:01 pm »

I think we're probably losing our UB either way, but lynching scum Day 1 is HUUUUUGE. Cannot be overstated how important it is. It's worth taking chances to get it.

I guess I don't understand that. If you get a lynch Day1 and miss Day2 you would be in the same spot as you would be if you miss Day1 and get a lynch Day2.

Can you explain further? Or is it just that it makes getting a correct lynch Day2 more likely.

Conversely I feel like losing a PR Day1 is nearly as HUUUGE (two less Us) in a negative way.

Well, games that successfully lynched scum Day 1 are waaaaay more likely to result in town victories than other games.

What about games where a power role is lynched Day1?

Well it's bad, obviously.
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The_Wine_Merchant

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #369 on: January 02, 2017, 06:41:23 pm »

I guess you saying HUUUUUGE and waaaaay better just aren't quite enough to convince me think this is the best idea.
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Wins: M91, M96, NM10, M98, M102, M105
Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

MVPs: M91, M96
Win percentage: 54.5 (6/11)

Robz888

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #370 on: January 02, 2017, 06:42:57 pm »

I guess you saying HUUUUUGE and waaaaay better just aren't quite enough to convince me think this is the best idea.

I mean, if I didn't strongly think the real UB was just keeping quiet, I would not support this lynch, no.
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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #371 on: January 02, 2017, 06:43:07 pm »

Ok so if we lynch Joseph today we have the opportunity to out a scum D-1. I think we should do it and even if we let him live, (and he is town) then he will die tonight so the risk of him being town and it being a mislynch is then not as high.
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Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #372 on: January 02, 2017, 06:43:36 pm »

I guess you saying HUUUUUGE and waaaaay better just aren't quite enough to convince me think this is the best idea.

I mean, if I didn't strongly think the real UB was just keeping quiet, I would not support this lynch, no.
I feel sorta similar.
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Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

gkrieg13

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #373 on: January 02, 2017, 06:43:55 pm »

I refuse to lynch Joseph without a counterclaim. Like I would hope that I died in the night if that happened so I didn't have to talk again about how horrible of a lynch it would be.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M91: trouble in the Scouncil (schadnd mafia) (D1)
« Reply #374 on: January 02, 2017, 06:44:17 pm »

I say let's lynch Joseph and if he is the Ub then that's bad town play.
If I am the UB then it's bad town play that I claimed UB? Makes sense.

Ok so if we lynch Joseph today we have the opportunity to out a scum D-1. I think we should do it and even if we let him live, (and he is town) then he will die tonight so the risk of him being town and it being a mislynch is then not as high.
You won't lynch scum D-1, and scum wouldn't kill someone who's such an easy mislynch target.

Why does everything you say always make me want to lynch you more and more?

PPE: 2 + 2
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins
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