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[Captain_Frisk]

I am not only advocating against voting for me, but for anyone. 

[Captain_Frisk]

SFS, if there are 2 mafia, lynching sk results in 3 on 2.  If the mafia nk goes through, the game is over, as town will no longer be able to lynch mafia. 

This is why I am not voting dsell, because I cant decide what flavor of scum he is, unlike delicious vanilla axxle.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

It's now become obvious to me that I'm gonna have to be unavailable for the rest of the evening.  Have fun all.

[Robz888]

SFS, we must lynch a mafia, not the SK.

[Tables]

Apologies for not being available tonight.  I know non-presence is a lot more obvious with this few players, too. I still haven't finished rereading day 4, but SFS's responses to my posts were... eh, they seemed a bit odd. I'll clarify tomorrow (or change my mind, whichever I feel is more relevant after more thinking).

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS, we must lynch a mafia, not the SK.

And how are we going to figure that one out?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Not much happened in 3 hours.  I'll check again in the morning.

[Robz888]

SFS, we must lynch a mafia, not the SK.

And how are we going to figure that one out?

Answer:

What we have to do is continuously run through all the permutations of what could have happened in the night given this person being mafia, this person being SK, etc. And then kill whoever has the most permutations where they are mafia, and it fits with what happened. I guess.

I still assert that Glooble's claim that he roleblocked Axxle Night 3 likely contradicts Dsell's claim that he is a Town One-Shot Vig who shot Axxle. Since Axxle is town, we know Glooble did not block either the mafia or SK kills. If the mafia hit the one-shot immune SK and Dsell is not lying but was roleblocked by mafia, there should still be an SK kill. The only way to explain that would be we also have a Doctor, or the SK took no action to be confusing, or... Dsell is not who he says he is, or Glooble didn't do what he said.

[Dsell]

Robz is right, SFS, but to clarify:

If there is just 1 mafia and a SK, they are both pretty much equal threats and equally appropriate lynch targets, but if this is the case the town is still in a good position.

If there are 2 mafia and a SK, mafia is the more important target, because the serial killer is able to kill mafia at night. If we lynch mafia, the town's in a strong position, if we lynch serial killer, the mafia win if their night kill on town is successful. If we lynch town, the serial killer and mafia could kill each other at night and give the town a chance to win still, but obviously lynching town is never a good plan, especially now.

[Glooble]

I encourage everyone to reread pages 87 and 88. Captain_Frisk's posts on those pages read so scummy to me right now. More than scummy, they read like someone trying to defend O without looking like he's defending O.

On his list (post 2163) he has O in the exact middle of his suspicions. Three (now) confirmed townies in his top three.

Then we get this:

Well - I like that this wagon is different than my grujah wagon, but seriously... Glooble, is there any lynch you don't get behind?

Can someone explain why we are lynching O and not Jonah?  Table's magic list said so?  He tallied it up, eliminated the top guy, and then got to make his choice of the next 2 and now we're all voting for him? 

Why can't we lynch Jonah or Pops - who there have been actual cases against?

Pops started this up, and has repeatedly dodged questions of "how are we going to pick the lynch target" - and when called out on his cagey responses, he says "because it rhymes".

If it was anyone other than Tables or SFS driving the selection, I'd be really angry... now I'm just confused.

Try to deflect much? It's like he doesn't care where the conversation goes as long as it gets away from O.

More concrete:

Note that DSell at this point is attacking Galz. Then Galz dies in the night. He would have been an awful mafia kill, as with so much suspicion on him, mafia would have wanted to set him up for a lynch. If DSell is SK, though, it makes perfect sense for Galz to have died night 2. Frisk, on the other hand, ends the day voting for pops. If Frisk was SK trying to hit mafia, shouldn't pops have been the SK kill night 2?

DSell is SK. Frisk is mafia. I'm relatively sure of this. I'm not sure when I'll be online again tonight.

[Captain_Frisk]

I encourage everyone to reread pages 87 and 88. Captain_Frisk's posts on those pages read so scummy to me right now. More than scummy, they read like someone trying to defend O without looking like he's defending O.

All right Glooble.  I'll admit it.  This is scummy as hell. 

Let's assume that I'm mafia. 

Well - pops and jonah are dead.  You've just said that DSell is the serial killer.  That means that if we have 2 mafia, the remaining choices are: RobZ, Tables, and SFS.  All of these folks were already bussing O - why on earth would I make such a big stink? 

Here's a more plausible scenario:

You or DSell are the mafia.  You guys realize that you're in trouble because DSell has been on deaths door since his Day 3 near lynch.  You've decided to go for the win with a town roleblocker claim - and hope that you hit convince the town town or Serial Killer.  Hit the SK - and you win.  Hit Town - and at least they are damn near removed from the game. 

Your options are: Me, RobZ or Tables.  RobZ and Tables are much harder targets to take down - and I'm easy because I look scummy based on my pisspoor voting history (Axxle1 mislynch, O lynch disagree, Jonah mislynch, Axxle2 near mislynch (I only failed to hammer because Pops beat me to it - which I thought was scummy as hell btw for doing with no discussion - I'm going to policy lynch O and Pops in all future games)

Just me counterclaiming is dumb - its only going to give mafia information - and you will argue that we need to lynch counterclaimers first.  Bravo to you for jumping out and getting the claim in first - especially after it seemed that that the general feeling was massclaiming was bad.

[Robz888]

There are six people left. If 3 of them are scum, maybe I can do this by process of elimination. I know I'm not scum, and I know Tables is not mafia, and I assume that SFS is not mafia.

That would mean that 2 of Dsell, Frisk, and Glooble are the mafia. And unless Tables or SFS are the Serial Killer (the former possible, the later unlikely), the other member of this trio is the Serial Killer.

Frisk is pretty scummy, I agree. But, it worries me that Dsell and Glooble are not at each other's throats. As I've said, I believe their claims are contradictory. The fact that they are not eager to fight over this says to me that they know their claims are false.

What if they are both mafia, and they chose no kill 2 nights ago in order to set up Glooble's roleblocker claim? And they chose not to night kill someone in order to make us belief that the Mafia Thief blocked Dsell? In reality one of them is the Mafia Thief, and they blocked the Serial Killer, who they probably know is Frisk.

[Dsell]

There are six people left. If 3 of them are scum, maybe I can do this by process of elimination. I know I'm not scum, and I know Tables is not mafia, and I assume that SFS is not mafia.

That would mean that 2 of Dsell, Frisk, and Glooble are the mafia. And unless Tables or SFS are the Serial Killer (the former possible, the later unlikely), the other member of this trio is the Serial Killer.

Frisk is pretty scummy, I agree. But, it worries me that Dsell and Glooble are not at each other's throats. As I've said, I believe their claims are contradictory. The fact that they are not eager to fight over this says to me that they know their claims are false.

What if they are both mafia, and they chose no kill 2 nights ago in order to set up Glooble's roleblocker claim? And they chose not to night kill someone in order to make us belief that the Mafia Thief blocked Dsell? In reality one of them is the Mafia Thief, and they blocked the Serial Killer, who they probably know is Frisk.

You keep saying that our claims are mutually exclusive, and I keep showing you why they're not. Obviously I can't be sure that Glooble's claim is true, but it doesn't seem obviously or demonstrably false, either. His notion that I am SK is wrong but a lot of people have suggested that and they're all wrong.

It is definitely a possibility, an interesting one, that Glooble is mafia, but I can't really tell: his manner has been pretty scummy this game, but consistently so, and ultimately his actions point to him being town, I think. Maybe this suggests that we only have 1 mafia and are not so bad off? Obviously we mustn't work under that assumption. You assume SFS is not mafia, btw, but I'm not sure that's a completely safe assumption anymore.

Anyway if we were mafia, why the heck would we choose to no-kill night 3? Setting up a role-claim down the road that doesn't solve the problem of night 3? No-killing brings huge suspicion on me. If I were mafia I at least would have NK'd Axxle, it's easier to explain 2 missing kills than 3. No, I was set up by the mafia to be lynched.

[Robz888]

But Dsell... surely then, you must believe that Glooble and Frisk are the mafia? And that either me or Tables is the SK? What else could it be?

[Dsell]

I definitely believe that you are the SK. Nice job convincing the town otherwise.

As far as pairs, Gloob and Frisk obviously looks extremely unlikely (I guess it could be a complicated bus but eeeeh, nope), Frisk and SFS is more likely, SFS knew the vote on Frisk would not be hammered quickly so it was safe, and has been removed since. Also quite possible that Frisk is mafia on his own and is the thief, which would be the most elegant solution but is one we can't safely assume.

[Captain_Frisk]

I definitely believe that you are the SK. Nice job convincing the town otherwise.

As far as pairs, Gloob and Frisk obviously looks extremely unlikely (I guess it could be a complicated bus but eeeeh, nope), Frisk and SFS is more likely, SFS knew the vote on Frisk would not be hammered quickly so it was safe, and has been removed since. Also quite possible that Frisk is mafia on his own and is the thief, which would be the most elegant solution but is one we can't safely assume.

Believing RobZ could be SK - ok - plausible. 

Believing that SFS and I are mafia over you and Glooble?  Hilarious!

While you're at it - would you like to throw some more accusations around?  Perhaps  SFS and Tables with the power play early cop claim?

[Robz888]

I definitely believe that you are the SK. Nice job convincing the town otherwise.

As far as pairs, Gloob and Frisk obviously looks extremely unlikely (I guess it could be a complicated bus but eeeeh, nope), Frisk and SFS is more likely, SFS knew the vote on Frisk would not be hammered quickly so it was safe, and has been removed since. Also quite possible that Frisk is mafia on his own and is the thief, which would be the most elegant solution but is one we can't safely assume.

Okay, well, I'm pretty positive Dsell is scum. That was hunch two days ago before he introduced himself as a One-shot Vig. I think Dsell and Glooble could be a scum pair. Of course if they are both lying about their roles, there has to be a Doctor among us. Of course we don't want him to say.

[Dsell]

I definitely believe that you are the SK. Nice job convincing the town otherwise.

As far as pairs, Gloob and Frisk obviously looks extremely unlikely (I guess it could be a complicated bus but eeeeh, nope), Frisk and SFS is more likely, SFS knew the vote on Frisk would not be hammered quickly so it was safe, and has been removed since. Also quite possible that Frisk is mafia on his own and is the thief, which would be the most elegant solution but is one we can't safely assume.

Believing RobZ could be SK - ok - plausible. 

Believing that SFS and I are mafia over you and Glooble?  Hilarious!

While you're at it - would you like to throw some more accusations around?  Perhaps  SFS and Tables with the power play early cop claim?

At least with a C_F/SFS mafia pair I don't have to justify things like, "oh they just decided not to kill night 3 even though not killing made Dsell look suspicious and even though they had a pass to kill a townie who would guaranteed not be protected because they wanted to set up a roleclaim for 2 days later EVEN THOUGH the roleclaim would still work if we had killed him..."

Seriously, we're having to make a lot of assumptions today, good ones and bad ones, but this one is just ludicrous.

[Captain_Frisk]

At least with a C_F/SFS mafia pair I don't have to justify things like, "oh they just decided not to kill night 3 even though not killing made Dsell look suspicious and even though they had a pass to kill a townie who would guaranteed not be protected because they wanted to set up a roleclaim for 2 days later EVEN THOUGH the roleclaim would still work if we had killed him..."

Seriously, we're having to make a lot of assumptions today, good ones and bad ones, but this one is just ludicrous.

Please walk me through the night kill scenarios for Nights 3 and 4 with SFS and I as mafia pair.

[Dsell]

At least with a C_F/SFS mafia pair I don't have to justify things like, "oh they just decided not to kill night 3 even though not killing made Dsell look suspicious and even though they had a pass to kill a townie who would guaranteed not be protected because they wanted to set up a roleclaim for 2 days later EVEN THOUGH the roleclaim would still work if we had killed him..."

Seriously, we're having to make a lot of assumptions today, good ones and bad ones, but this one is just ludicrous.

Please walk me through the night kill scenarios for Nights 3 and 4 with SFS and I as mafia pair.

They are identical to the night kill scenarios that we've been talking about, where the mafia is any one or two people. Our best explanations for night 3 have come up short but certainly one of you would be the Thief and blocked my night 3 kill.

[Captain_Frisk]

@DSell - humor me please.  You have 5 kills to explain - go.

[Captain_Frisk]

The reason why the night 3 kill explanations come up short is because you aren't telling the truth.

[Dsell]

@DSell - humor me please.  You have 5 kills to explain - go.

Night 4 is simple. Either SFS killed pops and the SK's kill was protected by doctor (if we have one) or you attempted a kill on *insert any name here* and were blocked by Glooble, the SK killed pops (which, if Robz is telling the truth, makes him look less like the SK. Except that he would have incentive to lie about his kill, so idk).

Night 3 is where difficulties arise. I attempted to shoot Axxle. Either you or SFS blocked me. You did not attempt a kill at night in order to give us this confusion and make us wonder where the kills went. This would bring tons of suspicion on both me and Axxle, two townies, over the next two days. SK's target was protected.

As usual, night 3 is pretty inadequate. But the above solution makes far more sense than me, as mafia, choosing not to kill Axxle even though I know he will be unprotected and I know that not killing him will make me look suspicious.

[Dsell]

The reason why the night 3 kill explanations come up short is because you aren't telling the truth.

Not true, but you did well setting it up to look that way.

In order to believe that I'm mafia, you have to believe that I didn't take the opportunity to kill Axxle and largely clear myself. That is the most far-fetched idea I've heard yet.

[Captain_Frisk]

@DSell - humor me please.  You have 5 kills to explain - go.

Night 4 is simple. Either SFS killed pops and the SK's kill was protected by doctor (if we have one) or you attempted a kill on *insert any name here* and were blocked by Glooble, the SK killed pops (which, if Robz is telling the truth, makes him look less like the SK. Except that he would have incentive to lie about his kill, so idk).

Night 3 is where difficulties arise. I attempted to shoot Axxle. Either you or SFS blocked me. You did not attempt a kill at night in order to give us this confusion and make us wonder where the kills went. This would bring tons of suspicion on both me and Axxle, two townies, over the next two days. SK's target was protected.

As usual, night 3 is pretty inadequate. But the above solution makes far more sense than me, as mafia, choosing not to kill Axxle even though I know he will be unprotected and I know that not killing him will make me look suspicious.

Ok - so you had to rely on the "mafia no killed" argument.  Let's go back a few posts:

At least with a C_F/SFS mafia pair I don't have to justify things like, "oh they just decided not to kill night 3 even though not killing made Dsell look suspicious and even though they had a pass to kill a townie who would guaranteed not be protected because they wanted to set up a roleclaim for 2 days later EVEN THOUGH the roleclaim would still work if we had killed him..."

So - how does a CF / SFS pair mean that you don't need to justify things like....