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[jotheonah]

Then let's just lynch Jo for crying out loud.

To all - Who would NOT vote for Jo right now?

I probably wouldn't. No promises though.

[Glooble]

This is going to blow everyone's mind,

I'm not sure jo being lynched is the worst outcome at this point. I'm not even sure its a worse outcome than lynching Captain_Frisk.

The extent to which everyone jumped on my twinclaim has made me really scared to waver on it, and I think that's been bad for the town. I've contributed in a major way to his unlynchability, and at this point I have to admit I'm not %100 sure he's town. When I made the claim, I was pretty damn close, but he has gotten scummier as the days have worn on.

I'm not ready to vote for him right now or anything, but I'd like to review the arguments against him with an open mind. I don't think our RL relationship should give him a free pass, and this wouldn't be the first game he's bluffed me in (we play poker together sometimes.)

A CF lynch makes me uncomfortable right now. The case feels weak to me.

I'm sorry I've been less available this week than I anticipated. If anyone has questions they'd like me to answer, I'd be more than happy to.

[jotheonah]

Interesting.  Eager to see how pops reacts to this heelfaceturn. (Pops was the one trusting Gloob's read on me as gospel). Also, for the record, Glooble, I don't think I've EVER successfully bluffed you in poker. You usually see right through me.


Also, guys, lest you get carried away, my being scum still doesn't make any sense, for reasons I've articulated.

[Glooble]

Not giving you a free pass =/= heel face turn. I still think you're town, but I feel like my absolute certainty on that point is keeping me from seeing all the possibilities, and more importantly, its constraining the thinking of other townspeople. The possibility, however remote, that you are scum and my inability to read you is going to screw over the whole town is starting to seem really frightening to me.

[Robz888]

Glooble, if I wasn't nearly positive you were non-mafia, I would be calling for your head right now.

Remember that I said all along Glooble's twinclaim did not, in my mind, weaken the case against Jo--it weakened the case against Jo and Glooble together. I never put much stock in Glooble's opinion of Jo, anyway.

In my mind, the lynch should be Jo or Dsell.

[Glooble]

I guess most this was directed at pops, who has cleared jo primarily based on my input. If I defend jo I want it to be based on solid reasons I can draw from evidence presented within the game, not my gut feelings or any kind of nepotism.

I'm pretty sure if I review jo's behavior based as much as possible on logic rather than intuition, I'm still going to find what I think is a rather weak case against him. If nothing else, the "jo and O wouldn't both play crazy" is a really strong point in jo's favor. But I also consider the CF case weak at this point. So that leaves DSell. SO far, the strongest argument against him seems to be a PoE analysis posted by someone who might very well be a serial killer.

None of these seem like good options to me. I could conceivably be convinced of any of them, but I can't believe there isn't a better lynch candidate.

[popsofctown]

I'm not sure O's wagonning of Frisk there is townpoints rather than scumpoints.  The wagon was so unlikely to come to fruition.  Compare it to his wagonning of Grujah - it was very clear that could come together, which is why O jumped on.  O's not a fool.  I doubt he played nice with every player on his team all game.

His fake position on me as being scum is inconsistent with him agreeing to wagon with me on Frisk.  It makes Frisk special, he went out of his way for that vote.  But he didn't do anything to make sure the vote actually led to a lynch.  He just said "yeah me too".  Which is what he did with Grujah, yes, but he didn't need to do that to get Grujah wagon to lynch level.  He needed to do that to get Frisk's wagon anywhere near L-1.  O did that for free townpoints for himself, but he'll get none for me because I'm a shrewd scorekeeper.  Neither does Frisk.


Glooble is just upset because if his read is wrong the whole game collapses around him and he would have to feel guilty.  He's like a 90% free throw shooter that wants a teammate to draw the foul instead so it's not all on him.  Nothing Glooble has said about his own read has had anything to do with him interpreting the behavior of his twin, just doubting the read itself because other people don't seem to be 100% sure of their reads.

Jo's still off the table.  Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.


Did Dsell interact with O at all?

[popsofctown]

I guess most this was directed at pops, who has cleared jo primarily based on my input. If I defend jo I want it to be based on solid reasons I can draw from evidence presented within the game, not my gut feelings or any kind of nepotism.

I'm pretty sure if I review jo's behavior based as much as possible on logic rather than intuition, I'm still going to find what I think is a rather weak case against him. If nothing else, the "jo and O wouldn't both play crazy" is a really strong point in jo's favor. But I also consider the CF case weak at this point. So that leaves DSell. SO far, the strongest argument against him seems to be a PoE analysis posted by someone who might very well be a serial killer.

None of these seem like good options to me. I could conceivably be convinced of any of them, but I can't believe there isn't a better lynch candidate.

Hey, hey.  No ad hominem.  You can't discriminate against SKs, they wanna lynch scum too.

[popsofctown]

I can't remember if I ever actual read page 100 and 99.  I'm going to assume I did.

[jotheonah]

those are the pages that bust the whole game open.

People I'm willing to lynch:
CF still actually again
Axxle
Pops
Robz

People I would lynch if a wagon magically materialized
Dsell

People I won't lynch
Tables
SFS
Jotheonah
Glooble

This is actually not a terrible place to be.

CF, I noticed you didn't claim at L-1 before. (Granted you weren't there very long). Any reason?

[Robz888]

Jo's still off the table.  Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.

He is very much on the table.

[Captain_Frisk]

Jo's still off the table.  Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.

He is very much on the table.

Seriously -it's like he wants our suspicion.

On stupid phone now - nO mega posts

[jotheonah]

Jo's still off the table.  Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.

He is very much on the table.

Seriously -it's like he wants our suspicion.

Not particularly. But do I have a choice in the matter?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I can't remember if I ever actual read page 100 and 99.  I'm going to assume I did.

Not much happened on 99 or 100, so if you didn't, it's probably ok.

[Captain_Frisk]

Jo's still off the table.  Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.

He is very much on the table.

Seriously -it's like he wants our suspicion.

Not particularly. But do I have a choice in the matter?

I actually meant pops here.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Jo's still off the table.  Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.

He is very much on the table.

Except that he'll never get there.

[popsofctown]

Jo's still off the table.  Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.

He is very much on the table.

Seriously -it's like he wants our suspicion.

On stupid phone now - nO mega posts

I don't see how it's suspicious of me unless you are proposing an O/Jo/pops team, which is the stuff of humor.

[jotheonah]

SFS, are you saying that you think I'm magically-unlynchable scum or magically-unlynchable town?

Or do you have no idea if I'm scum or town?

[Robz888]

Okay, I've done some thinking, and I've made up my mind:

VOTE: DSELL

I'm far from sure, but I think Dsell makes the most sense. He had no public relationship with O, they didn't ever vote for the same person, they didn't ever vote for each other. Dsell was squarely in the anti-Jo camp. I believe Dsell is correct, or he's mafia. The thing is, Jo was a great choice to be part of the bandwagon against, because he never got there, so he was always available next round to bandwagon against. And the people voting him got to look smart on Day 1 when they didn't lynch Axxle. If Dsell is is mafia, that means both he and O were safely off the Day 1 mislynch.

Maybe I'm succumbing to WIFOM, but Dsell seems like he is playing a great game. he hasn't raised anybody's ire (except dead Theorel, which might also mean something), everything he says is logical, his votes are logical... Maybe this is just a feeling. I have a bad feeling about him. I can see him being mafia, alongside O, much more than any of the other people, some of whom voted to lynch, one of whom was voted by O... it's down to Jo and Dsell for me. And pops and Glooble are fairly certain that Jo is not mafia. I've suspected Jo all of the first two rounds, and I think I was just plain wrong. There was also some bickering between O and Jo after I said my theory, and also O did vote Jo right when he had self-voted and was about to die.

So I'm down to Dsell here. VOTE: DSELL

By the way, let's say we're right, but that doesn't end the game. Okay, we've got another mafia or Serial Killer or something. If I don't live, you will see that I am town. Do not say, "oh well, he's not SK. Guess there's no SK." Plenty of other people could be the SK, if we have one.

[Captain_Frisk]

At least 1 mafia / serial killer

[popsofctown]

Dsell's noninteraction with O is indeed promising.  I hate killing someone for nothing, but it's a solid tell and I've seen it work before.

I certainly approve this wagon more than one on me, or Jo, or Glooble.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-6

Captain_Frisk (2): Axxle, popsofctown
Axxle (1): jotheonah
Dsell (1): Robz888

Not voting {5}: Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[Tables]

Well... I have to say Pop's reaction to Glooble's claim was less interesting than I'd hoped. I don't understand why he thinks Joth is now off the table, as well.

Having done some looking back, I'm thinking I might agree with Robz on DSell. I don't have much of a read on him, but then I'm not hugely suspicious of anyone, and some of the reasoning behind a DSell lynch makes sense. On the other hand, what do we really learn if he's town?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I have 3 pieces of information, and no analysis.  Yes, I know what that means.

Okay, I've done some thinking, and I've made up my mind:

VOTE: DSELL

I'm far from sure, but I think Dsell makes the most sense. He had no public relationship with O, they didn't ever vote for the same person, they didn't ever vote for each other. Dsell was squarely in the anti-Jo camp. I believe Dsell is correct, or he's mafia. The thing is, Jo was a great choice to be part of the bandwagon against, because he never got there, so he was always available next round to bandwagon against. And the people voting him got to look smart on Day 1 when they didn't lynch Axxle. If Dsell is is mafia, that means both he and O were safely off the Day 1 mislynch.

Maybe I'm succumbing to WIFOM, but Dsell seems like he is playing a great game. he hasn't raised anybody's ire (except dead Theorel, which might also mean something), everything he says is logical, his votes are logical... Maybe this is just a feeling. I have a bad feeling about him. I can see him being mafia, alongside O, much more than any of the other people, some of whom voted to lynch, one of whom was voted by O... it's down to Jo and Dsell for me. And pops and Glooble are fairly certain that Jo is not mafia. I've suspected Jo all of the first two rounds, and I think I was just plain wrong. There was also some bickering between O and Jo after I said my theory, and also O did vote Jo right when he had self-voted and was about to die.

So I'm down to Dsell here. VOTE: DSELL

By the way, let's say we're right, but that doesn't end the game. Okay, we've got another mafia or Serial Killer or something. If I don't live, you will see that I am town. Do not say, "oh well, he's not SK. Guess there's no SK." Plenty of other people could be the SK, if we have one.

Emphasis mine
1) FWIW, the assertion above in boldface is false. Jo voted for himself in 1793, and unvoted 51 minutes later in 1803. At no time during any of this did O vote for Jo.  In fact, O even posted, in 1810, the following (quoting in its entirety, italics added to separate from my prose in this post, underlined emphasis is mine, twice):

"Jo reads dumb townie, just like he always has.

I would have voted him as a policy lynch for self-voting (which yes, I have threatened to do before but never actually did) but the "omg wanting to live is a scumtell" is such crap that I can't justify voting along with users of such terrible logic."

2) This pronouncement by O of Jo's town-ness is one I did not find researching my wall-o-text post at 2343, but as I said there, O defends Jo again two posts later, in 1812.

3) In researching for this post, I found another O stance on Jo that I failed to add to 2343. In 873, O says the following (quoting only O's original text, but in its entirety [he quoted Theorel, which I've omitted], italics again added for separation, and underline added as well):
"On who we're voting for? Yea, I do. I don't buy that J is actually mafia.

Currently my suspicions are still on Popsofctown and on Captain Frisk, with a lesser suspicion placed on SwitchedFromStarcraft"

I don't know what to make of Rob's inaccuracy (had to grope for a relatively neutral word), but it's pretty clear to me that O sure wanted everyone to know that he thought J was town, especially at a key moment - when Jo was still close to death.

[Robz888]

Well... I have to say Pop's reaction to Glooble's claim was less interesting than I'd hoped. I don't understand why he thinks Joth is now off the table, as well.

Having done some looking back, I'm thinking I might agree with Robz on DSell. I don't have much of a read on him, but then I'm not hugely suspicious of anyone, and some of the reasoning behind a DSell lynch makes sense. On the other hand, what do we really learn if he's town?

If he's town, I'm going to be more inclined to trust his read on Jo (which did jive with my own on the previous 2 days).

Plus, you know--we're doing okay here, guys. And it will be interesting to see how many kills happen in the night. And I'm still betting we have another power townie, and they get another night to do their power.

The Dsell decision comes down to process of elimination for me. Tables and SFS are town. I have evidence against everybody else, but each person has mitigating evidence, too. Except Dsell.

Edit: SFS, hold on, I've got an answer for you.