Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[O]

It doesn't seem that ridiculous to me, actually.

1) Are you mafia?

If no: 2) Do you believe O, Galzria and CF are all mafia?

If so: The theory is wrong.

[Galzria]

It doesn't seem that ridiculous to me, actually.

 

Well, in that case.

Ahem.

Pick me! I'm scum!

[O]

>MFW the two confirmed townies (or near equivalent) are still on Jo.

Hm....

[jotheonah]

Take a step back from this O-Robz-Galz fight and tell me it looks like 3 townies squabbling.

It doesn't look that way to me. The longer the argument goes on, the worse O and Galzria look.

[jotheonah]

It was Robz who looked bad at first.

[O]

Jotheonah:

Target of a wagon with 2 confirmed townies on it
I screwup up, Jo warms to an O wagon
People are finished discussing my screwup for now, Grujah Wagon develops
Jo votes Grujah
Robz defuses Grujah wagon for now, FOSING me and Galz
Jo now focuses attention on me + Galz

I'm beginning to think I misread Jo earlier. Survtell is not scumtell, Survtell by throwing FOS and votes at anyone whose the focus of attention besides himself..

[jotheonah]

Jotheonah:

Target of a wagon with 2 confirmed townies on it
I screwup up, Jo warms to an O wagon
People are finished discussing my screwup for now, Grujah Wagon develops
Jo votes Grujah
Robz defuses Grujah wagon for now, FOSING me and Galz
Jo now focuses attention on me + Galz

I'm beginning to think I misread Jo earlier. Survtell is not scumtell, Survtell by throwing FOS and votes at anyone whose the focus of attention besides himself..

So much wrong with this. I'm not focusing attention on you, Robz is and, more importantly, you are. Second, the Grujah wagon is far from defused and I'M STILL ON IT.

And on top of all that I'm supposed to believe that the strong town read you've had on me all game, despite all the crazy, instantly evaporates when I put the tiniest bit of suspicion on you? OMGUS much?

[Galzria]

It was Robz who looked bad at first.

Jo, I don't KNOW that O is town, but I do lean that way. I think that Robz is MORE LIKELY than even O to be town. I'm not arguing who is or isn't Mafia here, I'm arguing that Robz is using faulty logic, and O sees that as well.

Honestly, your saying "Robz's case looks good to me" is basically the same as saying "I'm Mafia", since his case doesn't exactly leave wiggle room for you NOT to be. Do you not understand that?

[O]

Jotheonah:

Target of a wagon with 2 confirmed townies on it
I screwup up, Jo warms to an O wagon
People are finished discussing my screwup for now, Grujah Wagon develops
Jo votes Grujah
Robz defuses Grujah wagon for now, FOSING me and Galz
Jo now focuses attention on me + Galz

I'm beginning to think I misread Jo earlier. Survtell is not scumtell, Survtell by throwing FOS and votes at anyone whose the focus of attention besides himself..

So much wrong with this. I'm not focusing attention on you, Robz is and, more importantly, you are. Second, the Grujah wagon is far from defused and I'M STILL ON IT.

And on top of all that I'm supposed to believe that the strong town read you've had on me all game, despite all the crazy, instantly evaporates when I put the tiniest bit of suspicion on you? OMGUS much?

Not OMGUS. Tables was OMGUS. Notice that I don't OMGUS Robz.

Notice that I didn't vote for you, the townread has not "evaporated", I said "I'm beginning to think I misread".

Also, if you agree with Robz, why not vote for me or Galzria? It doesn't make much sense.

[jotheonah]

His case has you and O and a third member of the team, who could be CF.  I don't really have to believe I'm scum to buy into it.

And to tell you the truth, it isn't Robz's case that's starting to convince me, it's the amazing sensitivity and overreaction you two have displayed since he started spinning it.

I know I'm the one who said survivalism isn't a scum tell. But acting like you have five votes on you when you have one FoS? That's the only scum tell I really trust. That's how i got busted in MIII. You guys got WAY TOO MAD and WAY TOO DISMISSIVE of a post by Robz that, while over-authoritarian and oddly timed, is not that ridiculous. His assertion that this wagon built too quickly? We all agree that's legitimate. His analysis of the Axxle wagon and this wagon? Seems like an apt thing to do at this juncture.  I wasn't buying the conclusions drawn from that at first, but I'm not used to this level of defensiveness from either of you, particularly Galzria. So yeah, I'm suspicious and getting suspiciouser.

[O]

...but really, it is that ridiculous, and countering a post is certainly not "overreacting" especially when it gets people (read:glooble) to change their votes.

[jotheonah]

@O As far as I'm concerned, Robz has spun a great theory - if Grujah flips town.  If Grujah flips scum it all kind of falls apart though.  So what I'd really like to do is table all this nonsense for tomorrow and get on with the lynch that a good portion of the town seemed willing to get behind.

Grujah's flip will paint tonight's events in a much clearer light, and it won't hurt the town too much.

[jotheonah]

Anyway, I honestly can't believe we're all still awake. I'll see you guys tomorrow.

[jotheonah]

One more thought before bed: The big lesson from MII for me was that you should always be ready to turn on your best friends, your strongest town reads.  In that game I let one person into my mental confTown category and he turned out to be Mafia.

So do I admit the possibility that O and Galz, who have read town to me most of the game, could be mob partners? Absolutely, in a heartbeat. Am I going to vote for them two days before deadline when we're not even at LyLo? Not on your life.

[Galzria]

His case has you and O and a third member of the team, who could be CF.  I don't really have to believe I'm scum to buy into it.

And to tell you the truth, it isn't Robz's case that's starting to convince me, it's the amazing sensitivity and overreaction you two have displayed since he started spinning it.

I know I'm the one who said survivalism isn't a scum tell. But acting like you have five votes on you when you have one FoS? That's the only scum tell I really trust. That's how i got busted in MIII. You guys got WAY TOO MAD and WAY TOO DISMISSIVE of a post by Robz that, while over-authoritarian and oddly timed, is not that ridiculous. His assertion that this wagon built too quickly? We all agree that's legitimate. His analysis of the Axxle wagon and this wagon? Seems like an apt thing to do at this juncture.  I wasn't buying the conclusions drawn from that at first, but I'm not used to this level of defensiveness from either of you, particularly Galzria. So yeah, I'm suspicious and getting suspiciouser.

Sigh. You've seen me when Mafia Jo. Think. You've seen Robz as Mafia. If you're honestly not sure how you feel, tell me, who most resembles M-II?

Meta gaming aside, which I don't like, are either O, or myself, likely to be the type to crack under a FoS? Seriously, my name has been run around the block (with votes even!) At multiple stages D2 here, and my reaction want this visceral. It's not the accusation, it's the logic .

Honestly, if you can't recognize that pointing a whole Hand of Suspicion at 4 people, and saying "all 3 scum are there" is OMGUS play, then I just don't know what to say. Understand, when I say it is OMGUS play, I mean it VERY seriously. Any 3 (or 4) member Mafia team that would all vote together D1, and D2 is just... Beyond terrible. Like, "should never play Mafia again" terrible.

[Galzria]

My reaction was never this visceral* fix't.

[Grujah]

Whoah. I check in tonight with 1 vote and get up this morning at L-2. I won't claim anything yet, still not at -1 (though, If I count Glooble who Unvoted, I kinda am?).

Ok. I Know that I was suspicious to many back from D1, and that we are in pressure with time (to which I also contributed) but that was still an extremely fast forming wagon. I refuse to believe that it was 6 townies who suddenly all went - "Oh, I distrust Grujah 'nff to immediately switch to him" THAT FAST. I understand Frisk's "inactive townie is bad cause its harder to get a right lynch", but this is not about that.


Robz halting my lynch. Damn, to me it should scream town, but I cannot afford to take that for granted. He could have done "His gonna die anyway now, let just score points by protecting him". But I lean quite much more town now. If he is town, I am not sure how much Mafia could do to attack Rob on this decision or argue against him here, given that when I flip town it won't look good. Thing is I always get into WIFOM loops whenver i try to derive stuff from this.


Ok, Glooble. I am not surprised by the vote nor do I derive anything from it alone (he did vote for me D1 too, so he doesn't trust me much, but so did theo). No one else sick of this "I'm now almost sure that some of Mafia has low post count"?.
So, he goes to score points by being considarate and Unvoting (this also after Frisk calling him out for joining in first). Then does almost bureaucratic post:
 "Robz, your analysis succeeded in freaking me out enough (Why? How? Esp. when you and your twinbuddy are Robz top suspects if I understood correctly) to keep me from revoting Grujah at the present time. However, I'm starting to find it unlikely we'll reach a consensus on anyone else in the next two days."
So he still get some heat of by unvoting, but that still means nothing as he is determined that I am only possible lynch so he'll do that eventually. Perfect way to distance himself from a townie lynch but still support it.
Unvote Vote: Glooble

Joth just plays aweful. I seriously can't believe half of his posts. Even his twin-buddy called him out just now. If anyone should get policy lynch, it's him, not me. He also done this stupidest hedge ever where after voting for me he said "give him a chance to explain himself". DSUFGSDFGHSU

one more thing. Pops. He seemed to be eager jumping on wagons early.
He followed my vote on O (Ok, with his own, different reason, but, might be just taking an opportunity. Also, SFS can be nitpicky, O can't?). He followed votes on me. Not much, but suspicious.

O's vote had a bit OMGUS feel, but not taking that against him.


Also, you guys seem to take too much from the twinclaim (pops esp). Did you guys even check that claim with some kind of a "you both answer a question at the same time" thing? (Ala Jaime and Brienne in S02E10).
I mean, I really doubt anyone would fake THAT, but, just to be sure?

[Captain_Frisk]

Holy crap.

I went to bed thinking we might have 1-2 more votes, but we nearly lynched him?

unvote

I don't like any wagon that nearly lynched with prime townreads off doing whatever.

I'm going out for the morning and I don't want to mislynch while I'm sitting and drinking coffee.

I will return and re vote for someone, possibly grujah around 11 am eastern

[Glooble]

Anyway, I need some help from the people who are NOT indicted by my theory. So, I think the likely mafia are among O, Galzria, Jotheonah, and Captain Frisk. While not forgetting about Glooble and Pops, who I still think are less likely.

What I would like is for everyone who is NOT those people to tell me A) If they buy my theory, and B) which person of those listed above is the most likely mafia. Then we can vote for that person.

I buy that that group likely contains at least one mafia. I could see 2. I think 3 would be stretching it, because it would be a pretty dumb mafia team to all jump on the same quick-forming bandwagon when one of them staying off of it could make that one look really good for D2, and a no lynch is not an awful scenario for them either (though with the vig it is riskier.) So for the sake of trying to get a consensus on a less scummy lynch, I will go ahead and weigh in. Most suspicious to least right now:

<--O----(pops)-Galzria-----jo--Captain_Frisk->

I include pops because I still think him more likely scum than Galz. Pops has stayed out of this last bit of discussion while keeping his vote parked on Grujah, which reads worse to me than Galz's defending of the bandwagon. This could, however, simply be because pops went to bed at a semi-reasonable hour.

I'm starting to warm to the possibility that *gasp* my read on jo might be wrong. His "lynch anyone" attitude today is reaching absurd levels. CF has actually done almost nothing to warrant suspicion from me. But O has been all over the place today, and getting jumpy and defensive for seemingly no reason. So if an O wagon develops, I could get behind it.

I want to hear from SFS and Tables about Grujah though. They are the closest thing we have at this point to confirmed town, and if they think lynching him is the right move that will put things in a different light. Plus I want someone else's read on this Galz/ Robz/ jo fight and who looks worse.

[jotheonah]

Can people stop auto-equating my raising the possibility of someone being scum with my being willing to lynch them? It's really unfair. A good town should be willing to look at everyone, that's all I'm saying.

Whoah. I check in tonight with 1 vote and get up this morning at L-2. I won't claim anything yet, still not at -1 (though, If I count Glooble who Unvoted, I kinda am?).

Soft role claim? Check

Ok. I Know that I was suspicious to many back from D1, and that we are in pressure with time (to which I also contributed) but that was still an extremely fast forming wagon. I refuse to believe that it was 6 townies who suddenly all went - "Oh, I distrust Grujah 'nff to immediately switch to him" THAT FAST. I understand Frisk's "inactive townie is bad cause its harder to get a right lynch", but this is not about that.

Thanks for telling us what it isn't about, despite the fact that almost everyone of us pointed to this as a reason for your lynch.

Ok, Glooble. I am not surprised by the vote nor do I derive anything from it alone (he did vote for me D1 too, so he doesn't trust me much, but so did theo). No one else sick of this "I'm now almost sure that some of Mafia has low post count"?.
So, he goes to score points by being considarate and Unvoting (this also after Frisk calling him out for joining in first). Then does almost bureaucratic post:
 "Robz, your analysis succeeded in freaking me out enough (Why? How? Esp. when you and your twinbuddy are Robz top suspects if I understood correctly) to keep me from revoting Grujah at the present time. However, I'm starting to find it unlikely we'll reach a consensus on anyone else in the next two days."
So he still get some heat of by unvoting, but that still means nothing as he is determined that I am only possible lynch so he'll do that eventually. Perfect way to distance himself from a townie lynch but still support it.
Unvote Vote: Glooble

Totally unsurprising vote for an already popular candidate? Check.

Joth just plays aweful. I seriously can't believe half of his posts. Even his twin-buddy called him out just now. If anyone should get policy lynch, it's him, not me. He also done this stupidest hedge ever where after voting for me he said "give him a chance to explain himself". DSUFGSDFGHSU

one more thing. Pops. He seemed to be eager jumping on wagons early.
He followed my vote on O (Ok, with his own, different reason, but, might be just taking an opportunity. Also, SFS can be nitpicky, O can't?). He followed votes on me. Not much, but suspicious.

O's vote had a bit OMGUS feel, but not taking that against him.

Hand of Suspicion on almost everyone else? Check. Also the part about me is just rude. You're not online much, dude. I thought it would be nice to give you a chance to respond rather than lynching you with no warning. Excuse me.

Anyone see anything in that post that makes you want to lynch him less? Cause boy I don't.

Holy crap.

I went to bed thinking we might have 1-2 more votes, but we nearly lynched him?

unvote

I don't like any wagon that nearly lynched with prime townreads off doing whatever.

I'm going out for the morning and I don't want to mislynch while I'm sitting and drinking coffee.

I will return and re vote for someone, possibly grujah around 11 am eastern

Holy Probable Outcome, Batman! We almost killed the person I voted to kill! The horror!

Maybe I am overly sarcastic this morning, but this town is driving me up the wall. Let's lynch Grujah and get it over with. We can play the "which mafia are on that wagon?" game tomorrow.

I regret getting my hands dirty in the Galz-O debacle only because it's another freaking distraction for the most distractable town in the history of mafia and it's not a conversation that needs to be happening before we've seen a flip.

[Grujah]

Thanks for telling us what it isn't about, despite the fact that almost everyone of us pointed to this as a reason for your lynch.

Including or excluding you?

[jotheonah]

I didn't feel the need to say the exact same thing everyone was saying when I laid down my vote, but for the record my vote for you is based on ballpark 65% you're mafia 35% your a lurky, not-very-helpful town. Now that we've had this fascinating Robz-exchange, your lynch will also be quite informational.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm up to date (to 2069).  Robz analysis of the overlap of the two voting sets is interesting, but I'm in overwhelm, and have limited time for analysis (with my father as a belated Father's Day present until Wednesday am).  Given that I find myself being easily manipulated by the various arguments, I need to keep my vote where it is until I have a strong reason to move it (i.e. someone has convinced me that player  is mafia).

[Grujah]

Now that we've had this fascinating Robz-exchange, your lynch will also be quite informational.

This I agree with.

[Glooble]

Ok, Glooble. I am not surprised by the vote nor do I derive anything from it alone (he did vote for me D1 too, so he doesn't trust me much, but so did theo). No one else sick of this "I'm now almost sure that some of Mafia has low post count"?.
So, he goes to score points by being considarate and Unvoting (this also after Frisk calling him out for joining in first). Then does almost bureaucratic post:
 "Robz, your analysis succeeded in freaking me out enough (Why? How? Esp. when you and your twinbuddy are Robz top suspects if I understood correctly) to keep me from revoting Grujah at the present time. However, I'm starting to find it unlikely we'll reach a consensus on anyone else in the next two days."
So he still get some heat of by unvoting, but that still means nothing as he is determined that I am only possible lynch so he'll do that eventually. Perfect way to distance himself from a townie lynch but still support it.
Unvote Vote: Glooble

Ok, first off, given how generally inactive this town has been, and the failure of bandwagons to really take off, an inactive mafia makes a lot of sense. Many of the candidates we can't reach a consensus on it's because they are "too obvious to be scum" or "a mislynch waiting to happen." Well, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. It's just possible someone could be acting a lot like scum because they are scum, and a bandwagon full of townies could develop on someone because they are an easy target. This was my thought process when I voted for you and it still seems like a strong possibility.

I unvoted when Robz pointed out the similarities to the Axxle1 wagon for the reasons I stated. I was freaked out. I was manipulated by someone on that wagon day 1, it made sense to me to back a different horse today if at all possible.

I do think the mafia wants a lynch today. With a strong possibility of a Vig or SK taking one of them out tonight, I doubt they will want to risk not killing a townie during the day at all. The question is, do they want a lynch enough to all put suspicion on themselves by being on this scummy bandwagon?