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[Eevee]

I was hoping doing the reread would help me see the light, but no. This is really bad, objectively I see I just look so much worse than anyone else. It's crazy they tried to kill me and now it happens to frame me like this. I don't know what I could do here, I reread but I'm not sure who the scum is, and all the evidence points towards me because I was wrong about Hydrad and scum happened to try to kill me (which is unlikely and I don't have any strong arguments as to why it happened now).

I guess my best hope is trying to argue that I can be jailkept so we can try to hit one of the claimants. If we lynch me, you'll have to nail the fakeclaimant today or you'll lose, which is very very bad and it would be much better for us to try to do that now, but I understand me saying that doesn't do much for any of you.

[Eevee]

Ultimately, silver's team has so little incentive to kill me unless they really thought I was a pr, that my preferred lynch would be Jimmm.

[faust]

If Ichi, Silver, joth are telling the truth:

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

If Ichi, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

If Silver, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

Okay, so let me go through things.

Scenario 1: Jimmmmm is lying.

We have two factions here, so we have to account for missing night kills. Serial Killer can always choose to do some other action, would he do that? Otherwise, well, there are lots of possibilities for a missing night kill: Both scum killed ADK (weird), ash was killed and protected, mafia shot the SK, SK chose to perform another action.

So Jimmmmm's fakeclaim is definitely the most convenient for scum. No results to give, and an explanation for staying alive.

How is there no death tonight though? Either the SK performed another option, and mafia got blocked, or (more likely) mafia shot the SK/SK got blocked. Which implies Eevee.

Scenario 2: silver is lying

Here, we have no SK, which definitely makes things easier. The missing nightkill tonight is an issue here... either scum targeted Jimmmmm (unlikely), or the Traitor targeted mafia (also unlikely), or scum chose to no kill (possible, but I'd not consider it much).

That silver lies would be implied by the fact that he claims to have targeted claimed VTs twice, which is unconfirmable. But I think this scenario is not very likely.

Scenario 3: Ichi is lying

First, I think that means that Ichi is Mafia. A SK would not get through eventually with such an early fakeclaim. Actually, I really think SK would not claim a PR in most scenarios. So if Ichi is mafia, he knew that Hydrad was his partner (because Traitor knows mafia). That fits with him being off-wagon.

Scenario 3 has the most possibilities to account for missing night kills, I guess (JK + Commuter), so there's that. It's still likely that Eevee is scum in this.

Some conclusion: If silver lies, we have no SK and thus are guaranteed to have another mislynch available. So we can lynch Eevee, see his flip, decide on silver's alignment. If silver tells the truth, well, Eevee is a very good target.

So yeah, vote: Eevee is best, I think.

[faust]

On the other hand, we could jailkeep Eevee to confirm stuff. But that's bad, right? Because the Traitor can just roleblock silver if Eevee is scum. So it has to be a lynch.

[ashersky]

On the other hand, we could jailkeep Eevee to confirm stuff. But that's bad, right? Because the Traitor can just roleblock silver if Eevee is scum. So it has to be a lynch.

Right.  Worst case, traitor blocks silver, goon kills joth.

We need to hit one today.

[silverspawn]

I'll do the setup analysis again. this has been done already, but it's better if I go through it myself

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune


crossed all that don't have JK. These 4 were possible from Day1 on based on my role alone


2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

crossed 2  because there is no way that watcher doesn't claim. town!watcher just has zero reason not to claim. Same goes for 3 with 1-shot BP, so cross 3


6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

so, we really have a SK. I thought this was extremely unlikely. like, a few percent or something. in james bond mafia, I knew voltaire was lying, because his claim could only be true in a scenario with 0 randomed T's, which was less than 1%. This is similar. One one-kill night - okay, but a 0-kill night AND a 1-kill night? well, it happened. This is like the first time there's a real reason to mistrust me, and now you're starting to believe me. I don't get it. If I were you, I'd kill me based on the fact that me lying is the only scenario without a SK.

But alas, these two setups are akin to Ichi/Jimmm lying. So, one of them is scum, most likely the traitor. At least this doesn't change the fact that Eevee is most likely the non-traitor scum.

[silverspawn]

Joth is an IC now. and if Eevee is scum/SK, and Ichi or Jimmmm are the traitor, there is one scum/SK in the remaining pool.

I think it's likely that either ash got shot day1, or he tried to shoot. Unfortunately, him getting shoot is a pretty reasonable scenario, so I don't really know. I don't think scum or SK shot Jimmmm.

[silverspawn]

If it's 50% between Ichi and Jimmmm, I'm leaning on Ichi again, based on reads. Jimmmm also didn't lurk as much here as in Zelda Mafia. I think this is town!Jimmmm.

and there's that

Ichi, result?

I diagnosed jothenoah last night and was told he was unable to kill. I picked him since he was one of the scummier players to me at the time--and he's received pretty low suspicion. Also, from what I can tell, he's a strong town player (when he is in fact town), so semi-confirming his alignment would hopefully make people listen to him more.

joth is supposed to be the scummiest player? really? how about Eevee?

I guess Jimmm has it easier here, because he doesn't have fake targets, but I don't think Ichi would diagnose joth. If he did, joth is of course unable to kill.

[silverspawn]

okay, you said "scummier" not "scummiest". So I guess that's legit.

[faust]

A musing... lynching the SK today clears silver. This points slightly towards lynching a VT, as I think the SK is almost certainly to be found there.

[silverspawn]

And I was going to make a point about how scum is JOAT here and Eevee can srongman if he's scum, so it's not secure if I imprison him, but I guess it doesn't even matter, because there is no strongman. Of course, now traitor can - and most likely will - roleblock me. Which means, we should kill the traitor.

I think this is a good point:

How is there no death tonight though? Either the SK performed another option, and mafia got blocked, or (more likely) mafia shot the SK/SK got blocked. Which implies Eevee.

so, that means Eevee is probably the SK. So, if we lynch him we don't kill the roleblocker. But killing SK is probably good anyway, so... yea.

vote: Eevee is certainly best here

[Eevee]

I'm confused, why is it more likely there is a SK than that there isn't?

Out of the non-claimants, faust is easily the scummiest to me.

[Jimmmmm]

A musing... lynching the SK today clears silver. This points slightly towards lynching a VT, as I think the SK is almost certainly to be found there.

Are we assuming there's a SK?

[Eevee]

I'm really really not scum and killing me leaves us in a horrible spot, but I'm not sure what I can do to avoid being the lynch.

[Eevee]

A musing... lynching the SK today clears silver. This points slightly towards lynching a VT, as I think the SK is almost certainly to be found there.

Are we assuming there's a SK?

That's how I'm reading faust's and silver's previous posts.

[Eevee]

Which is confusing to me because we've only had one kill in two nights. Occam's razor etc.

Also, suspecting me of being a SK because I defended hydrad makes no sense. How have I veen scummy otherwise?

[silverspawn]

That's how I'm reading faust's and silver's previous posts.

well see my post. There are 3 possibilities

#1 a town!BP didn't claim
#2 a town!Watcher didn't claim
#3 we have a SK

#1 and #2 would just be incredibly anti town. there's no discussion here. town!watcher or BP has no reason not to claim. so, there must be a SK.

[Jimmmmm]

That's how I'm reading faust's and silver's previous posts.

well see my post. There are 3 possibilities

#1 a town!BP didn't claim
#2 a town!Watcher didn't claim
#3 we have a SK

#1 and #2 would just be incredibly anti town. there's no discussion here. town!watcher or BP has no reason not to claim. so, there must be a SK.

#4 (and this one's a biggie) you're scum

[silverspawn]

Also, suspecting me of being a SK because I defended hydrad makes no sense. How have I veen scummy otherwise?

I think you're the SK because I was putting you in prison last night? didn't you notice? well, and if scum tried to kill you, which would be at least kind of possible, and you tried to kill someone else, I stopped both kills by putting you imprison. No idea why I released you for today though.

[Jimmmmm]

Also, suspecting me of being a SK because I defended hydrad makes no sense. How have I veen scummy otherwise?

I think you're the SK because I was putting you in prison last night? didn't you notice? well, and if scum tried to kill you, which would be at least kind of possible, and you tried to kill someone else, I stopped both kills by putting you imprison. No idea why I released you for today though.

Maybe scum no-killed to try to validate your claim.

[silverspawn]

#4 (and this one's a biggie) you're scum

yea of course, as I said, If I were one of you, I'd lynch me because no SK is just way more likely.

Although, I guess this

Should I claim now? Weirdly, my claim corroborates silver's story but my role doesn't match up with his claim. I investigated Eevee last night and got "No result" which would seem to suggest he really was jailkept.

But I am, in fact, the Detective.

I actually investigated silver night one -- he did not kill night one. I also breadcrumbed early and can point it out if need be.

kind of clears me, so maybe I wouldn't. But the most was from my perspective. I know for a fact that there is a SK now.

[silverspawn]

the most *post

[Jimmmmm]

#4 (and this one's a biggie) you're scum

yea of course, as I said, If I were one of you, I'd lynch me because no SK is just way more likely.

Although, I guess this

Should I claim now? Weirdly, my claim corroborates silver's story but my role doesn't match up with his claim. I investigated Eevee last night and got "No result" which would seem to suggest he really was jailkept.

But I am, in fact, the Detective.

I actually investigated silver night one -- he did not kill night one. I also breadcrumbed early and can point it out if need be.

kind of clears me, so maybe I wouldn't. But the most was from my perspective. I know for a fact that there is a SK now.

jo's claim doesn't clear you at all.

[faust]

A musing... lynching the SK today clears silver. This points slightly towards lynching a VT, as I think the SK is almost certainly to be found there.

Are we assuming there's a SK?

That's how I'm reading faust's and silver's previous posts.

Well, the only scenario where there's no SK is where silver is scum... in that case, we can lynch you and, if you're town, at least strongly consider silver.

[silverspawn]

And then there's the thing with me not being good enough as scum to do this. as much as I would like to contradict here, Voltaire did figure me out after one day in GoT