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[iguanaiguana]

And, yes, this was my thought before looking to see who was on and off wagon.

This grabbed me earlier as I was skimming.  You're seriously claiming that you picked Egor, Amph, Hydrad and Teproc as lynchable before looking at the wagons?  Seems... unlikely.  Perhaps I'm misunderstanding you.

No, I mean, I thought: off-wagon is good.  Who is off-wagon (went back and looked); it's these people.

I'm not really sure what I think about this off-wagon idea. Its kind of arbitrary. Also, its rather convenient for you, since you were on-wagon.

[Witherweaver]

And, yes, this was my thought before looking to see who was on and off wagon.

This grabbed me earlier as I was skimming.  You're seriously claiming that you picked Egor, Amph, Hydrad and Teproc as lynchable before looking at the wagons?  Seems... unlikely.  Perhaps I'm misunderstanding you.

No, I mean, I thought: off-wagon is good.  Who is off-wagon (went back and looked); it's these people.

I'm not really sure what I think about this off-wagon idea. Its kind of arbitrary. Also, its rather convenient for you, since you were on-wagon.

By golly you've figured me out.

[iguanaiguana]

I wish!

[yuma]

Ok. Then say what I did was scummy and show it and I will refute it. But I won't have a problem with it. But don't use the "he thought people would never think he would do this as scum" as a reason to vote. That isn't evidence. That is conjecture.

I am not saying people shouldn't analyze or be suspicious of anything I or others have done. That, as you say, is mafia.

Fair enough. I think our argument was mostly a misunderstanding as to what the other was saying. I do not suspect you the way Egor does, but I also don't think you are Obv!town now like I did before your erratic behavior. That is all I meant to say.

What are your thoughts on Day 1?

I don't know. Egork is still suspect. Someone brought up that we had two wagons get to L-1, three if you include me at L-2, yesterday so I would like to look at some wagons that might have started but got distracted by those bigger ones...

So I think egork fits that bill and a few others....

I agree. I also think that coming right out and voting you could have been a move that scum would make (at least, if you are town). I'm not sure, though. Suspecting you above everyone else could come from town, too. I mean look at Awaclus. Then there's the fact that I tried to get a lynch on Egor for most of the day yesterday and it never got any traction; that's always suspicious.

Do you have thoughts on Faust? He also got away with very little scrutiny yesterday.

Still wondering if Awaclus can talk. From my understanding of treestumps, he can, but he doesn't have to, and he doesn't get a vote. 

I imagine if he can talk, he'll probably say something like, "you guys need to lynch Yuma."

Sure EgorK could be town suspecting me. That is certainly very plausible. Town is perfectly capable of doing scummy things as well as scum... but right now I think pushing for my lynch out of the gates is scummy. But after seeing how Awaclus pushed for me without reason and disregarding my claim I would hope that other townies would have realized that doing so is scummy. If EgorK is town then he hasn't learned from Awaclus' mistake.

as for the treestump my reading of the role was that I kinda think that Awaclus was a treestump prior to being lynched. So I don't think his vote on me would have counted had it come to me being lynched.... so that could be an explanation for why he insisted on keeping his vote on me? He didn't want to expose that he was a treestump? I don't know. That isn't really a path I want to go down...

[Witherweaver]

I wonder why he appeared in the vote counts.  Maybe that's what "active" meant.. he'll appear to have a vote, but it won't actually count towards L.

[faust]

I don't feel great about WW here.

Vote: WW

[Witherweaver]

I don't feel great about WW here.

Vote: WW

You should; I'm great.

[yuma]

I don't feel great about WW here.

Vote: WW

i could theoretically vote here. but i would need more than your "feels" to make any sort of judgement.

want to expand on you feels?

[Roadrunner7671]

I have a lot of rereading to do.

[Hydrad]

24hour post for now.

[faust]

I don't feel great about WW here.

Vote: WW

i could theoretically vote here. but i would need more than your "feels" to make any sort of judgement.

want to expand on you feels?

Well, just looking at this day: The whole thing about looking off-wagon feels a bit constructed. You look at people off-wagon, and there are Ampharos, Egor, Hydrad. Ampharos and Egor were discussed lynch candidates D1 and Hydrad is kinda lurky. It sucks for scum if these players get a pass. And I don't really buy the narrative; sure, scum might think they can get a town-driven lynch in, and that's good. But they also might think "Awaclus really is scummy, so there's no harm in getting on that wagon." I don't see why it should be one over the other.

Plus, I really don't like how he just shrugs off everything with a joke/snarky comment. That's bullying people into not voting for him, when what he should be doing is convince them he is town.

That's just today; I think I will reread WW's D1 later on.

[EgorK]

Hmm, I misremembered some things. Need to refresh my memory

Also, had anyone but yuma and Haddock ever encountered not getting PPE?

[Witherweaver]

I don't feel great about WW here.

Vote: WW

i could theoretically vote here. but i would need more than your "feels" to make any sort of judgement.

want to expand on you feels?

Well, just looking at this day: The whole thing about looking off-wagon feels a bit constructed. You look at people off-wagon, and there are Ampharos, Egor, Hydrad. Ampharos and Egor were discussed lynch candidates D1 and Hydrad is kinda lurky. It sucks for scum if these players get a pass. And I don't really buy the narrative; sure, scum might think they can get a town-driven lynch in, and that's good. But they also might think "Awaclus really is scummy, so there's no harm in getting on that wagon." I don't see why it should be one over the other.

Plus, I really don't like how he just shrugs off everything with a joke/snarky comment. That's bullying people into not voting for him, when what he should be doing is convince them he is town.

That's just today; I think I will reread WW's D1 later on.

I'm trying to think of a snarky response to this.  I'll get back to you.

[faust]

Looking further at the "off-wagon" thing, this is how two of the suspects reaced to the wagon:

I'm okay with the Awaclus vote, but I don't think it would get us a whole lot.

well awaclus's lynch at worst gives us info on who has been defending him and stuff. So i think awaclus lynch here is ok also.

Egor did not post anything since the wagon started. That certainly does not seem like people trying to dissociate themselves from the Awaclus wagon...

[Roadrunner7671]

Amaphoros is my top scum read as of right now. Does that mean much? No. But it's something.
Vote: Amaphoros

[Haddock]

Can someone present to me the Amphoros case please?
He hasn't seemed scummy to me, even, like, at all.

[Ampharos]

I was off-wagon because I didn't particularly thinking Awa was scum, and also didn't think we'd get too much from lynching him in terms of who was defending him/pursuing him, etc.

I was planning on doing a full read of him, but never had time to do it before the day ended.

I think EgorK is largely the same way.  The difference is we've had more people talk about him.  I still do not this he's scum, though.  He feels like one of those that would be too obviously scum.  Who knows, maybe he is obviously scum, but when someone sounds and looks like they're scum just by what they're saying, I find that is often evidence of a town person just kinda playing their own game. 

PPE:  RR you keep voting for me.  If you're going to keep doing that, at least back it up.  You just keep saying I'm your top read and then don't actually do anything besides vote.  Most of your latest posts have been like that.

[Witherweaver]

Looking further at the "off-wagon" thing, this is how two of the suspects reaced to the wagon:

I'm okay with the Awaclus vote, but I don't think it would get us a whole lot.

well awaclus's lynch at worst gives us info on who has been defending him and stuff. So i think awaclus lynch here is ok also.

Egor did not post anything since the wagon started. That certainly does not seem like people trying to dissociate themselves from the Awaclus wagon...

Hm?  It's noncommittal and doesn't get much attention.  Goes along with public opinion without really doing anything. 

[faust]

Looking further at the "off-wagon" thing, this is how two of the suspects reaced to the wagon:

I'm okay with the Awaclus vote, but I don't think it would get us a whole lot.

well awaclus's lynch at worst gives us info on who has been defending him and stuff. So i think awaclus lynch here is ok also.

Egor did not post anything since the wagon started. That certainly does not seem like people trying to dissociate themselves from the Awaclus wagon...

Hm?  It's noncommittal and doesn't get much attention.  Goes along with public opinion without really doing anything.

I thought your argument was that scum stayed off wagon for towncred. These posts do nothing to get that towncred; they could have as well voted for Awaclus.

[Witherweaver]

The idea is more of the staying-under-the-radar type.

[Haddock]

This argument is crazy.

Of course some scum stayed off the wagon for towncred.  I don't think anyone is suggesting that all the scum are onwagon.  That would seem bizarre.

It's almost certainly a little bit of both here. 

[Teproc]

This argument is crazy.

Of course some scum stayed off the wagon for towncred.  I don't think anyone is suggesting that all the scum are onwagon.  That would seem bizarre.

It's almost certainly a little bit of both here. 

I've been thinking about this. If we think scum was not all-on wagon, we should definitely lynch off-wagon, thoseare some great odds (1/3 for off-wagon people, 1/4 for others). The trouble is, all scum could have been on. Or only scum could have been on. This is the trouble with the Awaclus lynch, it's a lynch no one is ever going to be THAT against. So scum doesn't need to push it, but they won't be faulted for being on it (unless they're faust and don't usually go for obvious lynches).

[Teproc]

Should say "only one scum could have been on" above.

[Witherweaver]

This argument is crazy.

Of course some scum stayed off the wagon for towncred.  I don't think anyone is suggesting that all the scum are onwagon.  That would seem bizarre.

It's almost certainly a little bit of both here. 

It's not impossible.  Certain scum players (Ashersky for one) have specifically discussed and planned voting patterns in the scum QT to affect wagon analysis. 

PPEs

[Teproc]

This argument is crazy.

Of course some scum stayed off the wagon for towncred.  I don't think anyone is suggesting that all the scum are onwagon.  That would seem bizarre.

It's almost certainly a little bit of both here. 

It's not impossible.  Certain scum players (Ashersky for one) have specifically discussed and planned voting patterns in the scum QT to affect wagon analysis. 

PPEs

It's pretty rare to do it deliberately though. More importantly : due to the nature of the Awaclus lynch, it's very hard to tell where scum ended up. I don't think they are among the super decisive votes (Haddock and Roadrunner), but aside from that I can see all on and 2 off 1 one pretty easily (even 3 off, though I doubt that just because there's only three other people than me off-wagon).