Dominion Strategy Forum
Miscellaneous => Forum Games => Mafia Game Threads => Topic started by: ashersky on January 31, 2017, 08:30:11 am
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Welcome to ZM23: Kubo and the Two Strings BLITZ Mafia by ashersky.
This game will use an Original, Open, Blitz setup designed by ashersky. It is based on RMM39 and ZM17* setups.
There is no co-mod.
Sign ups are open.
1. LaLight
2. Awaclus
3. Jake
4. gkrieg13
5. Pacovf
6. WW
7. RR
8. SA
Game State Tracker:
Day 1...
The Rules with changes in RED because RED goes faster:
The Golden Rule:
This is a game. Everyone who signs up to play must be considerate of each other, never get personal, and focus on having fun. Once the game starts, having signed up is a commitment: inactivity is just as inconsiderate as rude comments.
The Standard Rules:
1. No communication between players outside of the game thread or shared QTs at any time. This includes passing references, jokes, or cases in other games or threads, whether in context or not.
2. If the game thread is locked, do not post. If you are unsure if something is locked, ask the mod by PM.
3. Direct or verbatim quoting of mod-provided information is strictly forbidden. Paraphrasing is okay. If you are not sure about your paraphrase, ask the mod first.
4. Actions with instructions that do not specify a game state will be resolved in the order they are received.
5. All night actions must be submitted within 24 hours of day ending.
6. Players must post once every 24 24 hours.
7. Do not edit or delete posts, ever. If you need to clarify or correct something, post again.
8. Invisible text, font size less than 10, and spoiler tags are not allowed.
9. Cryptography is not allowed.
10. The time between a lynch being reached and a flip being provided is called twilight. All players may continue posting during this time, including the lynched player.
11. Dead players may not post in thread or QT, except their Role QT. A lynched player is not "dead" until a flip has been provided. Lynched mafia may still post in the Mafia QT.
12. Personal multimedia, such as video or audio recordings, are not allowed in the game thread.
The Voting Rules:
1. Votes should be in this format: Vote: Playername. Unambigiuous nicknames are acceptable.
2. Unvotes should be in this format: unvote or Unvote: Playername.
3. Unvotes are not required if changing your vote from one player to another.
4. You may not vote: no lynch.
5. Lynches occur when a simple majority (rounded up) of living players is reached. Once reached, a lynch cannot be undone.
6. Lynch rules vary by the number of players alive. With 10 or more players alive, the player with the most votes at the end of the day will be lynched. Ties are broken by coin flip. With nine or less players alive, if a majority lynch is not reached by the deadline, no lynch occurs.
The Rest:
1. Bold, maroon text is reserved for the Mod. Players may not use it.
2. If you have an issue or problem with the game, please PM the Mod. Do not post complaints in the game thread.
3. Mods make mistakes - please point them out gently. If they can be corrected, they will. If irreversible, they will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. If a mod error disadvantages one faction greatly, the game may be called off.
5. Ask all questions and make all requests directly to the Mod via PM or in your Role QT. Questions deemed as "universal" (defined as questions for which the answers should be available to all players) will be requested to be re-posted in the Game Thread and answered there.
6. One prod will be issued after 36 hours without posting in the game thread. Players are subject to replacement or modkill after one prod. No prods will be issued. Players who do not post for 24 hours will be modkilled.
7. All rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, as determined by the mod, up to modkill.
Deadlines:
1. Days will last 48 IRL hours.
2. Nights will last no longer than ten IRL minutes.
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The Setup and Mechanics:
The following 8 roles will be randomly assigned:
Kubo, the Innocent Child
Monkey, Kubo's Protector
Beetle, Kubo's Defender
Vanilla Villager
Vanilla Villager
The Moon King
Moon Sister
Moon Sister
--Green roles are town-aligned, and may be known collectively as Villagers. Red roles are mafia-aligned, and may be known collected as mafia.
--This game has instant nights. All night action targets must be selected before the day ends. The most recently received target when a hammer vote is cast is selected.
--Kubo is announced at the game start.
--Monkey always targets Kubo at night and protects him from the nightkill.
--Beetle may choose a target each day. That target cannot perform actions that night.
--The Mafia Nightkill is compulsive. If a target is not selected, it will default to Kubo. If a killer is not selected, it will default to the Moon King.
--Mafia have daychat. Dead mafia can continue to chat in the mafia QT.
This game uses two white flags:
1) If the Moon King is lynched, town wins immediately.
2) If both Moon Sisters are lynched, town wins immediately.
The mafia win condition is: "You win when Kubo is dead, or when the mafia outnumber the villagers."
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/in
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/in
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/tag
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/in
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What if were sleeping for more than 4 hours. Does that still apply to the "must post every 4 hours"? If so what are we supposed to do?
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What if were sleeping for more than 4 hours. Does that still apply to the "must post every 4 hours"? If so what are we supposed to do?
Who sleeps for more than 4 hours?
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What if were sleeping for more than 4 hours. Does that still apply to the "must post every 4 hours"? If so what are we supposed to do?
Who sleeps for more than 4 hours?
Depends on the day
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What if were sleeping for more than 4 hours. Does that still apply to the "must post every 4 hours"? If so what are we supposed to do?
Set an alarm.
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What if were sleeping for more than 4 hours. Does that still apply to the "must post every 4 hours"? If so what are we supposed to do?
Set an alarm.
i LOVE that. Count me still in. I won't be modkilled. And I don't sleep more than 4 hours mostly.
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6. Players must post once every 24 4 hours.
Sheesh. This kills it for me. Looks fun otherwise.
FYI, the modkill rule still says 24 hours.
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6. Players must post once every 24 4 hours.
Sheesh. This kills it for me. Looks fun otherwise.
FYI, the modkill rule still says 24 hours.
I know. The expectation is many posts all day. 4 hours is a suggestion, really. I know folks sleep. It's more to stress that with 24-hour days, you have to post.
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6. Players must post once every 24 4 hours.
Sheesh. This kills it for me. Looks fun otherwise.
FYI, the modkill rule still says 24 hours.
I know. The expectation is many posts all day. 4 hours is a suggestion, really. I know folks sleep. It's more to stress that with 24-hour days, you have to post.
You may say 6 posts minimum for every 24 hrs.
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6. Players must post once every 24 4 hours.
Sheesh. This kills it for me. Looks fun otherwise.
FYI, the modkill rule still says 24 hours.
I know. The expectation is many posts all day. 4 hours is a suggestion, really. I know folks sleep. It's more to stress that with 24-hour days, you have to post.
You may say 6 posts minimum for every 24 hrs.
That's to easy maybe 10.
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/tag
The 10 minute night coupled with scum automatically targeting a player who is automatically protected if no other kill is submitted kills it for me.
Scum don't necessarily have the ability to control when the day ends and that's pretty punishing.
Also my ability to play would depend drastically on when this happens anyway, and honestly I probably don't have the time most weeks anyway. But I'd love to play if it worked out correctly for me, so I could maybe see myself hammering this.
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/tag
The 10 minute night coupled with scum automatically targeting a player who is automatically protected if no other kill is submitted kills it for me.
Scum don't necessarily have the ability to control when the day ends and that's pretty punishing.
Also my ability to play would depend drastically on when this happens anyway, and honestly I probably don't have the time most weeks anyway. But I'd love to play if it worked out correctly for me, so I could maybe see myself hammering this.
Okay, I fail at reading. Nevermind my objection.
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The hope is for this to run next week.
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/tag for now. Until I sort out my calendar for next weeks
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My wife is going to a conference for work in mid-march.....I can play then.....
Looks really fun, just can't count on having time to commit to the game right now
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/tag
Depending on when it looks like it's starting, I would be interested. Just not right now.
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So is lynching compulsory? Votes point 6 says it's isn't (as with 8 players it causes a no lynch), but it usually is in ZM.
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So is lynching compulsory? Votes point 6 says it's isn't (as with 8 players it causes a no lynch), but it usually is in ZM.
Not compulsory here because there are NKs.
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Any idea what time of day this might start? That could determine whether I'll play.
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Any idea what time of day this might start? That could determine whether I'll play.
Any time works for me, from 1 a.m to 8 p.m. Forum.
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/in
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/out again, not enough time in the next days :/
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I really want to play this one.
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If there are worries about the blitz format, I hope we can assuage them. If you read the first 15 or so, you'll see how fun they can be.
The overall time commitment is actually small, considering games rarely last longer than 3 full IRL days total. It lets us tweak setups and rerun them quickly in we find issues. And the hectic pace set by such short days makes every hour feel like the last day of a regular game.
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The overall time commitment is actually small, considering games rarely last longer than 3 full IRL days total. It lets us tweak setups and rerun them quickly in we find issues. And the hectic pace set by such short days makes every hour feel like the last day of a regular game.
This is all true, and is exactly my problem. I'm theoretically interested, but I need it to start on the right 3 day or so period. Which is I think the problem with getting Blitz games to fill, because others feel the same way.
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i just played a proper blitz mafia (10m days and 4m nights) (the setup was deliberately farts) and i bussed my partner to death d1 and got lynched d2
maybe not for me, is the thing
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i just played a proper blitz mafia (10m days and 4m nights) (the setup was deliberately farts) and i bussed my partner to death d1 and got lynched d2
maybe not for me, is the thing
where did you play it?
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http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=70583
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I guess Blitz isn't a thing anymore.
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I guess Blitz isn't a thing anymore.
=(( maybe like 72 hours for a day?..
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If it will help the game fill, I can lengthen the days.
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/in if this runs during the beginning of my spring break that starts on Friday.
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4 more and it will.
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I'm thinking about this.
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6. Players must post once every 24 4 hours.
Sheesh. This kills it for me. Looks fun otherwise.
FYI, the modkill rule still says 24 hours.
As a reminder, the 4 hour thing was for funsies.
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I can do 48-hour days.
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I can do 48-hour days.
I can do that and will be interested after I am done with game currently in.
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I would definitely do 48-hour days almost any time.
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Wait who is in already?
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I could maybe join, since my schedule might just about be getting more sensible. Or so I hope :-P
How do the really short nights work, though, when we're in so many different timezones and people have work and stuff?
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I could maybe join, since my schedule might just about be getting more sensible. Or so I hope :-P
How do the really short nights work, though, when we're in so many different timezones and people have work and stuff?
We make the orders in the qts in days so nights are instant
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I'll \in
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/in
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I could maybe join, since my schedule might just about be getting more sensible. Or so I hope :-P
How do the really short nights work, though, when we're in so many different timezones and people have work and stuff?
We make the orders in the qts in days so nights are instant
Yeah, but are the deadlines guaranteed not to be when half of us are asleep? I can see that sucking even more in a blitz game than the regular games.
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Hah.. I guess I'll have to risk it if I want a game to play /in :-P
/hammer
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I will /in, assuming Space's wasn't actually the hammer.
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I will /in, assuming Space's wasn't actually the hammer.
Did I miscount?
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SA was hammer.
Do we prefer a Monday start? Weekends seem worse in general.
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SA was hammer.
Do we prefer a Monday start? Weekends seem worse in general.
Doesn't matter to me
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SA was hammer.
Do we prefer a Monday start? Weekends seem worse in general.
I am not sure TWM wanted to participate in more than one game at the same time. Better to ask everyone signed up for a long time to confirm. I, for one, confirm.
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SA was hammer.
Do we prefer a Monday start? Weekends seem worse in general.
I am not sure TWM wanted to participate in more than one game at the same time. Better to ask everyone signed up for a long time to confirm. I, for one, confirm.
confirm
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Good call -- if you don't want to play, please say here.
Pacovf can take one slot for sure if someone drops.
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My plan is for Day 1 to start on Monday morning forum time, allowing for day end to during IRL daylight.
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All sounds good to me.
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Sure
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I can do 48-hour days.
I can do that and will be interested after I am done with game currently in.
I don't think I was properly understood. I can't play until I am out of the game I am currently in. Once that is finished, if this game is still pending, I could play with a 48 hour day. I shouldn't currently be in the sign-ups.
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I can do 48-hour days.
I can do that and will be interested after I am done with game currently in.
I don't think I was properly understood. I can't play until I am out of the game I am currently in. Once that is finished, if this game is still pending, I could play with a 48 hour day. I shouldn't currently be in the sign-ups.
No problem. You are out -- Pacovf is in.
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This game will start in a few hours or so. Sometime today after all confirmations are received.
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Confirming rules changes:
--48-hour days
--must post once every 24 hours
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Day one begins now.
gkrieg13 is Kubo.
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First!
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Vote Count 1.0:
Not Voting (8 ): LaLight, Awaclus, Jake, gkrieg13, Pacovf, WW, RR, SA
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.
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Vote: LaLight
I'm like 50% sure he's scum.
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Hooray.
Vote: Space
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Well no convincing anyone that I'm town.
Vote: Awaclus
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/tag
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So uh blitz lynch someone?
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Okay
Vote: Awaclus
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First blitz game!
Sure, vote: Awaclus L-2?
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We can do it!
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Man, I'm super towny. Even in my first couple of posts, you can clearly see that I'm town because I'm thinking from a town perspective.
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Hi all! I've never played blitz before... any tips?
Is blitz-lynching really a thing? Happy to sheep gkrieg if so.
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Hi all! I've never played blitz before... any tips?
Is blitz-lynching really a thing? Happy to sheep gkrieg if so.
Lynch Awaclus.
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Is blitz-lynching really a thing? Happy to sheep gkrieg if so.
No. You have to play faster, but that doesn't mean you have to lynch a towny person two hours after the day starts.
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Vote Count 1.1:
LaLight (1): Awaclus
Awaclus (3): gkrieg13, WW, Pacovf
Not Voting (4): LaLight, Jake, RR, SA
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.
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Yeah, I think the 50% thing is a little bit towny at least. It's probably not super-hard for scum to work it out, but coming from Awaclus, I lean infinitesimally towards town.
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Vote: Space
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vote: space
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vote: space
Vote: Space
I think you are confusing this for a bastard game.
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What the hell? Fo you understand that one mislynch and we lose?!
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Unvote everyone!
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I will make a good post when i will get to the computer.
I don't remember if scum has a daychat (they did in RMM Kubo) but id they do, that's stupid to throw votes.
Daychat, quickhammer, have you heard? Rvs may end losing.
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We're in Mylo.
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Hi all! I've never played blitz before... any tips?
Is blitz-lynching really a thing? Happy to sheep gkrieg if so.
3 scum 5 town. Mislynch -> Nightkill and game over.
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vote: space
Shouldn't you know better than throw votes around?
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Is blitz-lynching really a thing? Happy to sheep gkrieg if so.
No. You have to play faster, but that doesn't mean you have to lynch a towny person two hours after the day starts.
Town on Awa
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Vote: Space
Scum on WW
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Okay
Vote: Awaclus
Scum on WW (2)
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First blitz game!
Sure, vote: Awaclus L-2?
Scum on Pacovf
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So only WW eagerly joined every existing wagon. Which is ultrascummy. Man, have you tried to catch an easy win? No go, LaLight is in town!
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Yeah like fake vote in italics don't actually vote because we're at mylo
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Vote: Space
Scum on WW
Stupid on you.
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Vote: Space
Scum on WW
Stupid on you.
Oh really? May you unvote unless you're scum cause we're in MyLo?
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What exactly do you expect to happen in a Mafia game without voting?
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What exactly do you expect to happen in a Mafia game without voting?
Not a quickhammer in the first few hours?
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Yeah, I think the 50% thing is a little bit towny at least. It's probably not super-hard for scum to work it out, but coming from Awaclus, I lean infinitesimally towards town.
50%?
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What exactly do you expect to happen in a Mafia game without voting?
Not a quickhammer in the first few hours?
Okay. So let me know when you'd like to play.
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I will make a good post when i will get to the computer.
I don't remember if scum has a daychat (they did in RMM Kubo) but id they do, that's stupid to throw votes.
Daychat, quickhammer, have you heard? Rvs may end losing.
vote: Lalight
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Why do i feel like there's something I don't get?
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Yeah like fake vote in italics don't actually vote because we're at mylo
This is a scummy post.
LaLight is not yet determined. He also seems not too aware that one correct lynch wins.
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So Space, Jake, Awaclus? Could be.
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So Space, Jake, Awaclus? Could be.
Or Space/WW/Pacovf?
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So Space, Jake, Awaclus? Could be.
Or Space/WW/Pacovf?
I mean by your logic we would have just hammered Awaclus.
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What the hell? Fo you understand that one mislynch and we lose?!
Not necessarily, we have a PR that can prevent it.
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So Space, Jake, Awaclus? Could be.
Or Space/WW/Pacovf?
I mean by your logic we would have just hammered Awaclus.
No? You were L-3, Paco L-2
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Yeah like fake vote in italics don't actually vote because we're at mylo
This is a scummy post.
LaLight is not yet determined. He also seems not too aware that one correct lynch wins.
Whut
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So Space, Jake, Awaclus? Could be.
Or Space/WW/Pacovf?
I mean by your logic we would have just hammered Awaclus.
No? You were L-3, Paco L-2
So then what are you so worried about?
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Also one correct lynch doesn't necessarily win. We might need 2.
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So Space, Jake, Awaclus? Could be.
Or Space/WW/Pacovf?
I mean by your logic we would have just hammered Awaclus.
No? You were L-3, Paco L-2
So then what are you so worried about?
Because now you and IC vote for the same person. Either you're scum, or SA is scum or there can be a quickhammer, that's what.
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Look you are supposed to vote super quickly in blitz. And we aren't at true MYLO anyway.
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Awaclus is the only one making sense. Think about that, people.
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Look you are supposed to vote super quickly in blitz. And we aren't at true MYLO anyway.
So... Bastard mafia? Can I vote for the IC?
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Look you are supposed to vote super quickly in blitz. And we aren't at true MYLO anyway.
okay, look. Now people will quickhammer. Roleblocker will have 3 options to choose. So we win in 33% of cases.
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Look you are supposed to vote super quickly in blitz. And we aren't at true MYLO anyway.
okay, look. Now people will quickhammer. Roleblocker will have 3 options to choose. So we win in 33% of cases.
Not true. Even in a 3v3 we still have a chance. Anyway, I wouldn't be too concerned about quickhammers really.
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Look you are supposed to vote super quickly in blitz. And we aren't at true MYLO anyway.
So... Bastard mafia? Can I vote for the IC?
Oh come on
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Look you are supposed to vote super quickly in blitz. And we aren't at true MYLO anyway.
okay, look. Now people will quickhammer. Roleblocker will have 3 options to choose. So we win in 33% of cases.
Not true. Even in a 3v3 we still have a chance. Anyway, I wouldn't be too concerned about quickhammers really.
How in the world we have the chance in 3v3?
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Look you are supposed to vote super quickly in blitz. And we aren't at true MYLO anyway.
So... Bastard mafia? Can I vote for the IC?
Oh come on
I am honestly confused by your position here. Would you care to explain?
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Votes => Information => Good
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Votes don't give information when there is no weight behind them. Which is what happens wen people keep switching their votes randomly.
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Votes don't give information when there is no weight behind them. Which is what happens wen people keep switching their votes randomly.
Except you're voting LaLight.
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Why don't I know who Kubo is?
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Because I don't know how to read.
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The real question is, why aren't you voting recklessly? What are you afraid of?
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Vote Count 1.2:
LaLight (2): Awaclus, Pacovf
SA (2): WW, gkrieg
Not Voting (4): LaLight, Jake, RR, SA
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.
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I predict one of Awalcus and Pacovf are scum.
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I predict one of Awalcus and Pacovf are scum.
Why? And why one?
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I predict one of Awalcus and Pacovf are scum.
Why? And why one?
I'm thinking you may be town, and if Space is scum, it's risky for scum to vote there, and if Space is town, then jumping on that wagon appears too eager. So starting an alternate wagon makes them appear actively doing stuff without actually rushing a lynch.
If any of that makes sense. Fucking daylight savings time sucks and I'm exhausted and grumpy.
Why only one of them? Just a hunch. It could be both.
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Fucking daylight savings time sucks and I'm exhausted and grumpy.
Well, maybe you shouldn't have had sex with daylight savings time then. How does that even work, really?
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Votes don't give information when there is no weight behind them. Which is what happens wen people keep switching their votes randomly.
Well it will be random for people who aren't scum.
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Pacovf would be my default choice if the day ended in like an hour.
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Votes don't give information when there is no weight behind them. Which is what happens wen people keep switching their votes randomly.
Well it will be random for people who aren't scum.
Oh, we disagree about how to scumhunt then. I am terrible at analyzing votes before a flip, but I (think I) am better at getting reactions out of people, but that requires to pressure them into reacting.
Votes don't give information when there is no weight behind them. Which is what happens wen people keep switching their votes randomly.
Except you're voting LaLight.
What do you mean with that?
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Votes don't give information when there is no weight behind them. Which is what happens wen people keep switching their votes randomly.
Well it will be random for people who aren't scum.
Oh, we disagree about how to scumhunt then. I am terrible at analyzing votes before a flip, but I (think I) am better at getting reactions out of people, but that requires to pressure them into reacting.
Votes don't give information when there is no weight behind them. Which is what happens wen people keep switching their votes randomly.
Except you're voting LaLight.
What do you mean with that?
Voting led to LaLight reacting led to you voting him.
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I am still inclined to think of WW as scummy. Also I don't like RR's first posts, they look weirdely the same as I recall the start of RMM39.
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I am still inclined to think of WW as scummy. Also I don't like RR's first posts, they look weirdely the same as I recall the start of RMM39.
Maybe it's Because I don't know how to read.
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I am still inclined to think of WW as scummy. Also I don't like RR's first posts, they look weirdely the same as I recall the start of RMM39.
Maybe it's Because I don't know how to read.
Maybe. But still.
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I am going to sleep right now. See you in 7 hours.
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I am still inclined to think of WW as scummy. Also I don't like RR's first posts, they look weirdely the same as I recall the start of RMM39.
I forgot, why is WW scummy again?
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Sorry for not being more on the ball... had stuff on this evening. Will be home in another hour and can contribute properly then.
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Yeah, I think the 50% thing is a little bit towny at least. It's probably not super-hard for scum to work it out, but coming from Awaclus, I lean infinitesimally towards town.
50%?
It's 50/50 for any townie other than gkrieg as to the alignment of other players... and I'd imagine that's easier for a townie to spot than for a scum. It wouldn't surprise me coming from someone like Calamitas in either alignment, but from Awaclus it feels a bit townie.
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Yeah, I think the 50% thing is a little bit towny at least. It's probably not super-hard for scum to work it out, but coming from Awaclus, I lean infinitesimally towards town.
50%?
It's 50/50 for any townie other than gkrieg as to the alignment of other players... and I'd imagine that's easier for a townie to spot than for a scum. It wouldn't surprise me coming from someone like Calamitas in either alignment, but from Awaclus it feels a bit townie.
Isn't that also something that scum could talk about in their QT beforehand anyway, which makes it more likely to come from scum?
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I am still inclined to think of WW as scummy. Also I don't like RR's first posts, they look weirdely the same as I recall the start of RMM39.
I forgot, why is WW scummy again?
I'm not.
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Yeah, I think the 50% thing is a little bit towny at least. It's probably not super-hard for scum to work it out, but coming from Awaclus, I lean infinitesimally towards town.
50%?
It's 50/50 for any townie other than gkrieg as to the alignment of other players... and I'd imagine that's easier for a townie to spot than for a scum. It wouldn't surprise me coming from someone like Calamitas in either alignment, but from Awaclus it feels a bit townie.
Isn't that also something that scum could talk about in their QT beforehand anyway, which makes it more likely to come from scum?
Yeah, but I'm not scum so I don't have a QT.
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Should we massclaim? I'll think about it more IRL-tomorrow, but tentatively it seems like it should have its pros and cons that aren't overly complex to figure out perfectly, since either way we're going to be pretty close to 50/50 chances.
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If you want to think about it in the meantime, I already figured out that scum would claim 1 VT and counterclaim both PRs for sure, so you can use that as a starting point.
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Which is to say that I'm going to bed now.
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Awaclus townslip?
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Yeah, I think the 50% thing is a little bit towny at least. It's probably not super-hard for scum to work it out, but coming from Awaclus, I lean infinitesimally towards town.
50%?
It's 50/50 for any townie other than gkrieg as to the alignment of other players... and I'd imagine that's easier for a townie to spot than for a scum. It wouldn't surprise me coming from someone like Calamitas in either alignment, but from Awaclus it feels a bit townie.
Isn't that also something that scum could talk about in their QT beforehand anyway, which makes it more likely to come from scum?
Possibly, though I can't imagine they had a great deal of time to talk in their QT, given that the game started only ~5 hours after PMs went out. Probably the first things they'd cover would be who they want to mislynch first. If we're lucky, that means most of their time will have been wasted strategising on ways to get you out of the picture that won't work so well now you're the IC :-)
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Awaclus town slipped!
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So Space, Jake, Awaclus? Could be.
Or Space/WW/Pacovf?
I mean by your logic we would have just hammered Awaclus.
No? You were L-3, Paco L-2
So then what are you so worried about?
Because now you and IC vote for the same person. Either you're scum, or SA is scum or there can be a quickhammer, that's what.
Hmm.. even knowing I'm town, I don't feel terribly confident in WW's guilt just because there's no quickhammer. There's a decent chance of the NK not happening (we have an RB), and at that point, we have a strong idea of who the scums are. If we correctly lynch the Moon King, we win.
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Yeah, I think the 50% thing is a little bit towny at least. It's probably not super-hard for scum to work it out, but coming from Awaclus, I lean infinitesimally towards town.
50%?
It's 50/50 for any townie other than gkrieg as to the alignment of other players... and I'd imagine that's easier for a townie to spot than for a scum. It wouldn't surprise me coming from someone like Calamitas in either alignment, but from Awaclus it feels a bit townie.
Isn't that also something that scum could talk about in their QT beforehand anyway, which makes it more likely to come from scum?
Ah, re-reading the set-up, scum has daychat, so that's worth considering both from the quickhammer angle and from the point of view of them making coordinated arguments.
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Awaclus town slipped!
You could feel free to elaborate if you want, you know...
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Yeah, I think the 50% thing is a little bit towny at least. It's probably not super-hard for scum to work it out, but coming from Awaclus, I lean infinitesimally towards town.
50%?
It's 50/50 for any townie other than gkrieg as to the alignment of other players... and I'd imagine that's easier for a townie to spot than for a scum. It wouldn't surprise me coming from someone like Calamitas in either alignment, but from Awaclus it feels a bit townie.
Isn't that also something that scum could talk about in their QT beforehand anyway, which makes it more likely to come from scum?
Ah, re-reading the set-up, scum has daychat, so that's worth considering both from the quickhammer angle and from the point of view of them making coordinated arguments.
You're late. LaLight already pretended to not know this.
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Well we know from the two wagons we have currently that if scum wanted to quickhammer, both of the wagons are either on scum or have scum already on them.
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Ah, re-reading the set-up, scum has daychat, so that's worth considering both from the quickhammer angle and from the point of view of them making coordinated arguments.
You're late. LaLight already pretended to not know this.
Ah, he'd said that he thought scum may have daychat -- I didn't even remember he'd said it because that was in the section of posts I caught up with quickly in the pub, then I started replying to particular things now I'm home. It may have been even townier of the other players present at that moment who'd actually read the set-up and knew he was correct to have said something in-thread, so that people like gkrieg wouldn't have incorrectly assumed that a QT conversation must have taken place before the game, which was actually what his comment seemed to me to imply.
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Look you are supposed to vote super quickly in blitz. And we aren't at true MYLO anyway.
okay, look. Now people will quickhammer. Roleblocker will have 3 options to choose. So we win in 33% of cases.
Not true. Even in a 3v3 we still have a chance. Anyway, I wouldn't be too concerned about quickhammers really.
How in the world we have the chance in 3v3?
I'm struggling to see this one, too.. how do we lynch scum when they make up 50% of the population?
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Fucking daylight savings time sucks and I'm exhausted and grumpy.
Thanks for mentioning that... I'd failed to notice earlier that I'm only 4 hours ahead of forum time, rather than my usual 5. The clocks here don't change for almost 2 more weeks.
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Look you are supposed to vote super quickly in blitz. And we aren't at true MYLO anyway.
okay, look. Now people will quickhammer. Roleblocker will have 3 options to choose. So we win in 33% of cases.
Not true. Even in a 3v3 we still have a chance. Anyway, I wouldn't be too concerned about quickhammers really.
How in the world we have the chance in 3v3?
I'm struggling to see this one, too.. how do we lynch scum when they make up 50% of the population?
Ya not sure what I was seeing there.
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Fucking daylight savings time sucks and I'm exhausted and grumpy.
Thanks for mentioning that... I'd failed to notice earlier that I'm only 4 hours ahead of forum time, rather than my usual 5. The clocks here don't change for almost 2 more weeks.
And the clocks here never change!
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Ok, let's just conclude the setup discussion and go back to scumhunting:
-if we mislynch, then either Beetle roleblocks the nightkill (~20% chance) or we lose.
-if we lynch correctly, then either we win outright (33%) or we have to find another scum tomorrow. If we don't, we lose, unless Beetle roleblocks the kill either night (~50%).
-scum has daychat and can coordinate quickhammers.
tl;dr let's lynch scum today please.
Flash townread
towny-ish?SA, Awaclus
scummy: Lalight, WW
null (not enough content): RR, Jake
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Awaclus town slipped!
You could feel free to elaborate if you want, you know...
Interesting that you don't see it...and also scummy.
Can you really not find it?
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Ok, let's just conclude the setup discussion and go back to scumhunting:
-if we mislynch, then either Beetle roleblocks the nightkill (~20% chance) or we lose.
-if we lynch correctly, then either we win outright (33%) or we have to find another scum tomorrow. If we don't, we lose, unless Beetle roleblocks the kill either night (~50%).
-scum has daychat and can coordinate quickhammers.
tl;dr let's lynch scum today please.
Flash townread
towny-ish?SA, Awaclus
scummy: Lalight, WW
null (not enough content): RR, Jake
I feel nullish on LL, but maybe scummy on RR. Jake has made one single post all game so far, so agree on lack of content there.
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Yeah sorry but I think that RR may be scum here. I also dislike the idea of lynching LL because just by a numbers perspective he's been scum a lot recently (M94 etc) and I doubt that he can be scum so many games in a row.
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Awaclus town slipped!
You could feel free to elaborate if you want, you know...
Interesting that you don't see it...and also scummy.
Can you really not find it?
Why on earth is it scummy not to notice a townslip? Isn't the definition of a townslip something that a town player says accidentally that lets on more than they'd intended about their towny state of mind? Isn't a fellow townie much less likely to be aware of that than scum?
I'm still not sure whether you're seeing an actual town-slip, or just cottoning onto Awaclus's general townie vibe and the deliberately-townie things he's said. It's not even beyond the realms of possibility that you're both scum and he's picking words very carefully so that you have a nice townslip-catching act to perform between you.
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I also dislike the idea of lynching LL because just by a numbers perspective he's been scum a lot recently (M94 etc) and I doubt that he can be scum so many games in a row.
This is absolute rubbish as a line of reasoning! Unless Ash assigned roles using people's recent roles as some kind of input (which I assume we're pretty much guaranteed that he didn't do), then the chance of anyone here being scum is equal, regardless of how much or how little they've been scum in other games.
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Ok, let's just conclude the setup discussion and go back to scumhunting:
-if we mislynch, then either Beetle roleblocks the nightkill (~20% chance) or we lose.
-if we lynch correctly, then either we win outright (33%) or we have to find another scum tomorrow. If we don't, we lose, unless Beetle roleblocks the kill either night (~50%).
-scum has daychat and can coordinate quickhammers.
tl;dr let's lynch scum today please.
Flash townread
towny-ish?SA, Awaclus
scummy: Lalight, WW
null (not enough content): RR, Jake
I sorta agree with this but awaclus seems different this game. He's not being as annoying and he's actually explaining things (sorta). It feels like he is trying to be more towny this game which for me is a bit off so slight scum read on awaclus
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I also dislike the idea of lynching LL because just by a numbers perspective he's been scum a lot recently (M94 etc) and I doubt that he can be scum so many games in a row.
This is absolute rubbish as a line of reasoning! Unless Ash assigned roles using people's recent roles as some kind of input (which I assume we're pretty much guaranteed that he didn't do), then the chance of anyone here being scum is equal, regardless of how much or how little they've been scum in other games.
Yeah good point but I think LL has played differently than previous games (M94) where he was scum.
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Yeah
First, Jake expresses agreement.
sorry
Then, he apologizes. That's called appealing to emotion.
I think
In the game where TWM, mcmc and I were scum, mcmc gave TWM some newbie scum advice: Always say 'I' and never say 'you,' because you'll sound less accusatory.
may
Not committing himself so he can still seem innocent/on the fence.
RR may be scum here.
Scum is going to agree with literally any wagon on any towny because we're at MyLo. If a newbie player is on/supporting of a wagon, it should be regarded with more suspicion than usual. And I'm not calling Jake a newbie to Mafia, I'm calling a newbie to an Ashersky setup.
I also
He says I again!
also
Expresses agreement again.
a numbers perspective he's been scum a lot recently (M94 etc) and I doubt that he can be scum so many games in a row.
This argument is invalid and I strongly suspect Jake knows that.
I doubt
He says I yet again.
(M94 etc)
Even with his invalid argument, he only gives one example of LaLight being scum 'so many games in a row.'
Conclusion: Jake is scum.
ppe LOTS
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Why on earth is it scummy not to notice a townslip? Isn't the definition of a townslip something that a town player says accidentally that lets on more than they'd intended about their towny state of mind? Isn't a fellow townie much less likely to be aware of that than scum?
I'm still not sure whether you're seeing an actual town-slip, or just cottoning onto Awaclus's general townie vibe and the deliberately-townie things he's said. It's not even beyond the realms of possibility that you're both scum and he's picking words very carefully so that you have a nice townslip-catching act to perform between you.
Okay, fine. Awaclus said that he didn't have a QT because he was town. As a towny, I picked up on that. I also don't have a QT. Any other towny should've picked up on this as well, and you didn't. So, either Awaclus made the very risky assumption that no townies have QTs, or Awaclus is town.
You didn't pick up on this. That's pretty scummy.
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Not gonna lie, my last few games where I was town have been pretty crappy. I was bad in Squid Girl and Stranger Things and I think one other that's slipping my mind, but I feel pretty good this game.
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Why on earth is it scummy not to notice a townslip? Isn't the definition of a townslip something that a town player says accidentally that lets on more than they'd intended about their towny state of mind? Isn't a fellow townie much less likely to be aware of that than scum?
I'm still not sure whether you're seeing an actual town-slip, or just cottoning onto Awaclus's general townie vibe and the deliberately-townie things he's said. It's not even beyond the realms of possibility that you're both scum and he's picking words very carefully so that you have a nice townslip-catching act to perform between you.
Okay, fine. Awaclus said that he didn't have a QT because he was town. As a towny, I picked up on that. I also don't have a QT. Any other towny should've picked up on this as well, and you didn't. So, either Awaclus made the very risky assumption that no townies have QTs, or Awaclus is town.
You didn't pick up on this. That's pretty scummy.
This is not a bad argument, but Ashersky would have mentioned it somewhere if he had given townies QTs so that scum would know about it. Or Awaclus could have asked in private. Etc.
I have no idea what your deal with that Jake post is though. Has anybody here played with Jake before?
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Okay, fine. Awaclus said that he didn't have a QT because he was town.
Imo, that's one of those throwaway "look, I'm being townie" statements that are trivial for scum to manufacture. I registered it, but I definitely wouldn't IC him over it.
I was under the impression you were a town player who tends to ask for QTs even when they're not automatically offered... so don't you have a QT either way?
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I have no idea what your deal with that Jake post is though. Has anybody here played with Jake before?
Jake and RR are IRL friends, and used to get into awful thread-saturating arguments with each other in-thread. They've been improving lately, which is to be encouraged!
Jake also has a tendency towards omgus and slightly tenuous arguments, but I think his ability to put a case together has gotten better with experience.
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Oops... 1am for me, so I'm off to bed. I have early meetings, but will catch up again around 9am forum time.
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I was under the impression you were a town player who tends to ask for QTs even when they're not automatically offered... so don't you have a QT either way?
I used to do that, but not so much anymore. I don't need a private chat if I have nothing to hide ;)
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This is not a bad argument, but Ashersky would have mentioned it somewhere if he had given townies QTs so that scum would know about it. Or Awaclus could have asked in private. Etc.
I assume that townies will get QTs, especially with Ashersky who has been around forever. In Squid Girl Mafia, for example, I was a VT and I didn't have a QT. I think this is because UoS wasn't around during the time when QTs for everyone became super popular.
Awaclus could've asked about it though, that's something I didn't consider. I'm not sure Ashersky would give him a straight answer though.
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Ash doesn't like QTs. He usually does stuff with PMs
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Yeah
First, Jake expresses agreement.
sorry
Then, he apologizes. That's called appealing to emotion.
I think
In the game where TWM, mcmc and I were scum, mcmc gave TWM some newbie scum advice: Always say 'I' and never say 'you,' because you'll sound less accusatory.
may
Not committing himself so he can still seem innocent/on the fence.
RR may be scum here.
Scum is going to agree with literally any wagon on any towny because we're at MyLo. If a newbie player is on/supporting of a wagon, it should be regarded with more suspicion than usual. And I'm not calling Jake a newbie to Mafia, I'm calling a newbie to an Ashersky setup.
I also
He says I again!
also
Expresses agreement again.
a numbers perspective he's been scum a lot recently (M94 etc) and I doubt that he can be scum so many games in a row.
This argument is invalid and I strongly suspect Jake knows that.
I doubt
He says I yet again.
(M94 etc)
Even with his invalid argument, he only gives one example of LaLight being scum 'so many games in a row.'
Conclusion: Jake is scum.
ppe LOTS
Ok hold up did RR just make a scum arugement against me because I use the word I a lot. This is ridiculous
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Ok let's get things moving again.
vote: WW
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Yeah this is spooky. I'm assuming everyone is making a 'good night' post when they go to sleep, but maybe that's not the case.
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Well I guess now's a good time to hit the hay.
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Yeah sorry but I think that RR may be scum here. I also dislike the idea of lynching LL because just by a numbers perspective he's been scum a lot recently (M94 etc) and I doubt that he can be scum so many games in a row.
This is bad and you should feel bad.
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Ok let's get things moving again.
vote: WW
Shtawp
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This is not a bad argument, but Ashersky would have mentioned it somewhere if he had given townies QTs so that scum would know about it. Or Awaclus could have asked in private. Etc.
I assume that townies will get QTs, especially with Ashersky who has been around forever. In Squid Girl Mafia, for example, I was a VT and I didn't have a QT. I think this is because UoS wasn't around during the time when QTs for everyone became super popular.
Awaclus could've asked about it though, that's something I didn't consider. I'm not sure Ashersky would give him a straight answer though.
What? You assume townies will get QTs? Why would you be making an assumption here, if you are town?
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How could anyone possibly think I'm scum here? It's like you guys have never played Mafia with me
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Also I'm now on Pacific time so I wake up even later
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How could anyone possibly think I'm scum here? It's like you guys have never played Mafia with me
Precisely! You were scum in the last game we played together. And I was convinced you were town until you quickhammered for the win.
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Good morning!
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How could anyone possibly think I'm scum here? It's like you guys have never played Mafia with me
Precisely! You were scum in the last game we played together. And I was convinced you were town until you quickhammered for the win.
Yeah, WW you look pretty darn townie as scum, look at RMM40. I was terrified back then
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but okay, for now I believe you. You play more carefully townie as scum.
Actually, if there is no quickhammer still, I would vote: Space. They look scummy from the first post.
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but okay, for now I believe you. You play more carefully townie as scum.
Actually, if there is no quickhammer still, I would vote: Space. They look scummy from the first post.
vote: LaLight
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but okay, for now I believe you. You play more carefully townie as scum.
Actually, if there is no quickhammer still, I would vote: Space. They look scummy from the first post.
vote: LaLight
Why?
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I actually think SA is the scummier one out of two. Also, now there can be a quickhammer, though in WW/SA situation there wasn't. Shouldn't that mean one of them is scum? Why vote for me at all?
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Vote Count 1.3:
LaLight (2): Awaclus, gkrieg13
SA (2): WW, LaLight
WW (1): Pacovf
Not Voting (3): Jake, RR, SA
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.
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Oh, I thought I have 3 votes on me already.
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Morning all.
vote: WW
The no-hammer argument grew on me with time.
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Vote Count 1.4:
LaLight (2): Awaclus, gkrieg13
SA (2): WW, LaLight
WW (2): Pacovf, SA
Not Voting (2): Jake, RR
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.
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I'm not feeling incredible about either a LaLight or WW lynch. I'd rather look among SA/Jake
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This is not a bad argument, but Ashersky would have mentioned it somewhere if he had given townies QTs so that scum would know about it. Or Awaclus could have asked in private. Etc.
I assume that townies will get QTs, especially with Ashersky who has been around forever. In Squid Girl Mafia, for example, I was a VT and I didn't have a QT. I think this is because UoS wasn't around during the time when QTs for everyone became super popular.
Awaclus could've asked about it though, that's something I didn't consider. I'm not sure Ashersky would give him a straight answer though.
What? You assume townies will get QTs? Why would you be making an assumption here, if you are town?
In general I assume townies get QTs, so saying what he did as scum would be risky for Awaclus if he thinks similar to me.
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I actually think SA is the scummier one out of two. Also, now there can be a quickhammer, though in WW/SA situation there wasn't. Shouldn't that mean one of them is scum? Why vote for me at all?
If one of them is scum, that's 50/50. Voting for you is also 50/50. For any particular lynch to be better than another one, we need odds that are better than 50/50.
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I actually think SA is the scummier one out of two. Also, now there can be a quickhammer, though in WW/SA situation there wasn't. Shouldn't that mean one of them is scum? Why vote for me at all?
If one of them is scum, that's 50/50. Voting for you is also 50/50. For any particular lynch to be better than another one, we need odds that are better than 50/50.
i see what you mean. But isn't the probability more because they both weren't quickhammered? Like 50%+50%=75% for each?
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LaLight (2): Awaclus, gkrieg13
SA (2): WW, LaLight
WW (2): Pacovf, SA
Each of these two-person wagons is open to quick-hammering by scum on the assumption that they're currently two townies voting for a town. Thus, either it's two townies voting for a scum, or one or more scums is already on a town wagon. Possibly it's just too early in the day for scum to quickhammer, but I think it's also possible that they're trying to make themselves more secure in a win by using our uncertainty to buy towncred at this point in the game.
If it's not just some scum no-quick-hammer ruse, then each row of the vote count must contain at least one scum. The lower two rows would be satisfied by WW being scum (or by me being scum from other townies' perspectives). From the upper one, we get one of LL and Awaclus, since gkreig is IC. If WW isn't scum, there's a strong chance of both LL and Paco being scum instead.
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LaLight (2): Awaclus, gkrieg13
SA (2): WW, LaLight
WW (2): Pacovf, SA
Each of these two-person wagons is open to quick-hammering by scum on the assumption that they're currently two townies voting for a town. Thus, either it's two townies voting for a scum, or one or more scums is already on a town wagon. Possibly it's just too early in the day for scum to quickhammer, but I think it's also possible that they're trying to make themselves more secure in a win by using our uncertainty to buy towncred at this point in the game.
If it's not just some scum no-quick-hammer ruse, then each row of the vote count must contain at least one scum. The lower two rows would be satisfied by WW being scum (or by me being scum from other townies' perspectives). From the upper one, we get one of LL and Awaclus, since gkreig is IC. If WW isn't scum, there's a strong chance of both LL and Paco being scum instead.
Don't forget that at some point there was a wagon on you containing IC and WW. It existed for quite a time.
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Don't forget that at some point there was a wagon on you containing IC and WW. It existed for quite a time.
I haven't forgotten: it's exactly why I'm currently voting WW, since the evidence kind of piled up the longer that wagon lasted.
You're currently in a similar situation with Awaclus, though -- what's your feeling on that?
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Don't forget that at some point there was a wagon on you containing IC and WW. It existed for quite a time.
I haven't forgotten: it's exactly why I'm currently voting WW, since the evidence kind of piled up the longer that wagon lasted.
You're currently in a similar situation with Awaclus, though -- what's your feeling on that?
Well, I am still waiting for qh given that gkrieg voted for me when everybody was sleeping and most of us are still asleep. If nothing will happen, Awaclus is conf!scum, or (!) scum decided not to quickhammer for some reason.
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LaLight (2): Awaclus, gkrieg13
SA (2): WW, LaLight
WW (2): Pacovf, SA
Each of these two-person wagons is open to quick-hammering by scum on the assumption that they're currently two townies voting for a town. Thus, either it's two townies voting for a scum, or one or more scums is already on a town wagon. Possibly it's just too early in the day for scum to quickhammer, but I think it's also possible that they're trying to make themselves more secure in a win by using our uncertainty to buy towncred at this point in the game.
If it's not just some scum no-quick-hammer ruse, then each row of the vote count must contain at least one scum. The lower two rows would be satisfied by WW being scum (or by me being scum from other townies' perspectives). From the upper one, we get one of LL and Awaclus, since gkreig is IC. If WW isn't scum, there's a strong chance of both LL and Paco being scum instead.
I don't think scum can just quickhammer, because it's not a guaranteed win for them if they do, especially if they reveal themselves in the process. So they have to make it not obvious that they're quickhammering.
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Morning all.
vote: WW
The no-hammer argument grew on me with time.
Ooooh I think we have it.
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In regards to the massclaim: if we massclaim, we also want to no lynch today.
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Which is to say that I'm still figuring out whether or not that is better than not massclaiming at all.
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With massclaim + no lynch, we get these advantages:
- The chance of Beetle catching scum by preventing the NK
- Scum has to NK a VT to prevent revealing themselves, which makes it so that for every scum, there is one townie who knows 100% that the scum is scum, and Kubo's perspective gets boosted from 3/7 to 50% in all cases
That comes at the cost of:
- Losing the 5% chance that Beetle could salvage us after a mislynch (I did the math)
- Scum might choose to reveal themselves and NK Monkey instead of a VT. Then, either we have to lynch the Moon King immediately or Beetle has to successfully prevent the NK on night 2.
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I'm in favor of it. Otherwise, our odds of winning don't look great.
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Scum might choose to reveal themselves and NK Monkey instead of a VT. Then, either we have to lynch the Moon King immediately or Beetle has to successfully prevent the NK on night 2.[/li][/list]
This is really dangerous. Besides that it all makes sense.
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Scum might choose to reveal themselves and NK Monkey instead of a VT. Then, either we have to lynch the Moon King immediately or Beetle has to successfully prevent the NK on night 2.[/li][/list]
This is really dangerous. Besides that it all makes sense.
It's also really dangerous for scum, because it gives us a crap ton of information, which can definitely be enough. It especially gives the real Beetle a lot of information that can be used for successfully preventing the NK.
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Scum might choose to reveal themselves and NK Monkey instead of a VT. Then, either we have to lynch the Moon King immediately or Beetle has to successfully prevent the NK on night 2.[/li][/list]
This is really dangerous. Besides that it all makes sense.
It's also really dangerous for scum, because it gives us a crap ton of information, which can definitely be enough. It especially gives the real Beetle a lot of information that can be used for successfully preventing the NK.
Won't Beetle then need to guess out of 3? It's not the best chance.
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Scum might choose to reveal themselves and NK Monkey instead of a VT. Then, either we have to lynch the Moon King immediately or Beetle has to successfully prevent the NK on night 2.[/li][/list]
This is really dangerous. Besides that it all makes sense.
It's also really dangerous for scum, because it gives us a crap ton of information, which can definitely be enough. It especially gives the real Beetle a lot of information that can be used for successfully preventing the NK.
Won't Beetle then need to guess out of 3? It's not the best chance.
Yeah, but only if lynching Moon King fails. If we think of lynching Moon King as a 1 in 5 chance (in practice, it's better, because we can have reads and stuff), the total odds are 47.2%, which are pretty good by the standards of this setup.
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Total odds for town victory are 47.2%, that is.
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/tag
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Total odds for town victory are 47.2%, that is.
Can you sketch out how you arrived at that number, please? I want to be sure I'm following your maths, because 47.2% does seem relatively promising for this setup.
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Awake again but I don't know for how long. Might go back to sleep
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Reads so far
Town: griekg, Awaclus, Jake
Null: LL, WW
Scummy: RR, Pacovf, SA
I think I like the SA lynch most so for now Vote: SA
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Total odds for town victory are 47.2%, that is.
Can you sketch out how you arrived at that number, please? I want to be sure I'm following your maths, because 47.2% does seem relatively promising for this setup.
1 - 4/5 odds of not lynching Moon king * 2/3 odds of Beetle missing = ~46.7%
I think I used 66% as a stand-in for 2/3 when I first did the math, so the result was just a little bit off.
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I think I like the SA lynch most so for now Vote: SA
This could be Jake sidling onto the "quick"-hammer. I'm seriously town!
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That's not unpossible.
Is that three votes?
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I think I like the SA lynch most so for now Vote: SA
This could be Jake sidling onto the "quick"-hammer. I'm seriously town!
Or it could be Jake voting for who he thinks is scum
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Keep daychat in mind as we go on, as well. I think scum!Queen might sacrifice a scum! um.. Bishop, I guess, for the town cred. The game really won't go on long enough for the downside of "why didn't they get NK'd yet?" to be very prominent.
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That should be scum!King not scum!Queen.
What I'm getting at is Jake could be king and SA could still be scum.
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Don't forget that at some point there was a wagon on you containing IC and WW. It existed for quite a time.
I haven't forgotten: it's exactly why I'm currently voting WW, since the evidence kind of piled up the longer that wagon lasted.
You're currently in a similar situation with Awaclus, though -- what's your feeling on that?
I am confused by your statement, what's your conclusión if a wagon stays at 2 votes for long enough?
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That should be scum!King not scum!Queen.
What I'm getting at is Jake could be king and SA could still be scum.
I like how you keep your lynch options wide open! Any townreads?
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That should be scum!King not scum!Queen.
What I'm getting at is Jake could be king and SA could still be scum.
I like how you keep your lynch options wide open! Any townreads?
LaLight. RR a little bit. Awaclus is neutral.
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Vote Count 1.5:
LaLight (2): Awaclus, gkrieg13
SA (3): WW, LaLight, Jake
WW (2): Pacovf, SA
Not Voting (1): RR
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.
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Not talking about the mass claim is scummy. We're in a bit of a hurry to execute that, after all.
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Not talking about the mass claim is scummy. We're in a bit of a hurry to execute that, after all.
In.
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Not talking about the mass claim is scummy. We're in a bit of a hurry to execute that, after all.
So everyone but you and LL are scummy. But you are voting for Lalight.
Seriously though, it's not a setup you can really game. It really all sits on lynching scum today.
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Not talking about the mass claim is scummy. We're in a bit of a hurry to execute that, after all.
In.
And unvote
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Not talking about the mass claim is scummy. We're in a bit of a hurry to execute that, after all.
So everyone but you and LL are scummy. But you are voting for Lalight.
Seriously though, it's not a setup you can really game. It really all sits on lynching scum today.
Why don't you consider No Lynch?
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Don't forget that at some point there was a wagon on you containing IC and WW. It existed for quite a time.
I haven't forgotten: it's exactly why I'm currently voting WW, since the evidence kind of piled up the longer that wagon lasted.
You're currently in a similar situation with Awaclus, though -- what's your feeling on that?
I am confused by your statement, what's your conclusión if a wagon stays at 2 votes for long enough?
If a wagon stays at two votes indefinitely, it's strange that scum doesn't QH in order to get a very likely win. So my conclusion is that either the wagon is on scum, or there's at least one scum voting that prevents the L-2, L-1 and hammer votes all coming in from scum. That means when two people are voting for me, either one (or more) of them is scum (which is unlikely in gkrieg's case!) or scum is just messing with us.
I wasn't confident enough to vote WW last night my time, but as time went on with no move for anyone else to vote there, I got more suspicious to the point that I put a vote on him. Now LL is in the exact same situation with Awaclus. Earlier he said he wasn't voting because not everyone is awake yet. Now even gkrieg (our western-most outpost, afaik) is awake, and there's no further move on LL, so I'm interested to see how his reasoning lines up with mine, hence the comment & question to him.
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Don't forget that at some point there was a wagon on you containing IC and WW. It existed for quite a time.
I haven't forgotten: it's exactly why I'm currently voting WW, since the evidence kind of piled up the longer that wagon lasted.
You're currently in a similar situation with Awaclus, though -- what's your feeling on that?
I am confused by your statement, what's your conclusión if a wagon stays at 2 votes for long enough?
If a wagon stays at two votes indefinitely, it's strange that scum doesn't QH in order to get a very likely win. So my conclusion is that either the wagon is on scum, or there's at least one scum voting that prevents the L-2, L-1 and hammer votes all coming in from scum. That means when two people are voting for me, either one (or more) of them is scum (which is unlikely in gkrieg's case!) or scum is just messing with us.
I wasn't confident enough to vote WW last night my time, but as time went on with no move for anyone else to vote there, I got more suspicious to the point that I put a vote on him. Now LL is in the exact same situation with Awaclus. Earlier he said he wasn't voting because not everyone is awake yet. Now even gkrieg (our western-most outpost, afaik) is awake, and there's no further move on LL, so I'm interested to see how his reasoning lines up with mine, hence the comment & question to him.
Yeah, now this is strange. But i actually stick to the idea that scum doesn't qh for some reason.
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Vote: Jake
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Or scum is now lining it up on me.
Ppe
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Vote Count 1.6:
LaLight (2): Awaclus, gkrieg13
SA (1): Jake
WW (2): Pacovf, SA
Jake (1) WW
Not Voting (2): RR, LaLight
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.
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Vote: Jake
?
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I would be open to a mass claim.
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Not talking about the mass claim is scummy. We're in a bit of a hurry to execute that, after all.
I'm considering it. You asserted early on that the optimal play for scum is to claim both PRs and a VT, but I really think we should consider other claiming patters in the outcome analysis. Have you made sure to cover all your bases when thinking through what happens in this case?
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Otoh I got the impression that WW was on all the wagons and neither ended with qh. Ww/Awaclus/X?
Ppe
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Otoh I got the impression that WW was on all the wagons and neither ended with qh. Ww/Awaclus/X?
Ppe
"All the wagons"? I voted for Awaclus (not for very long) and Space.
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Wait, do Mafia not have their JOAT thing this game?
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Otoh I got the impression that WW was on all the wagons and neither ended with qh. Ww/Awaclus/X?
Ppe
"All the wagons"? I voted for Awaclus (not for very long) and Space.
Yeah, i'm sorry, i got distracted.
And you continue to vote people just to create a wagon which will be possible for your partners to qh.
Ppe
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Otoh I got the impression that WW was on all the wagons and neither ended with qh. Ww/Awaclus/X?
Ppe
"All the wagons"? I voted for Awaclus (not for very long) and Space.
Yeah, i'm sorry, i got distracted.
And you continue to vote people just to create a wagon which will be possible for your partners to qh.
Ppe
Stop saying silly things.
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Moon Sisters sound like Goons from the setup.
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Wait, do Mafia not have their JOAT thing this game?
What joat thing?
Ppe: ah, got it
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Otoh I got the impression that WW was on all the wagons and neither ended with qh. Ww/Awaclus/X?
Ppe
"All the wagons"? I voted for Awaclus (not for very long) and Space.
Yeah, i'm sorry, i got distracted.
And you continue to vote people just to create a wagon which will be possible for your partners to qh.
Ppe
Stop saying silly things.
It was my observation.
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Last time the scum team had roles that included Roleblocking. So if they knew doctor, they could just block doctor, kill Kubo, win.
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Not talking about the mass claim is scummy. We're in a bit of a hurry to execute that, after all.
I'm considering it. You asserted early on that the optimal play for scum is to claim both PRs and a VT, but I really think we should consider other claiming patters in the outcome analysis. Have you made sure to cover all your bases when thinking through what happens in this case?
For each PR they don't claim, that PR is now an extra IC and the VT PoE becomes substantially better for town. I don't think there is any advantage to scum in claiming more than one VT.
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I vote for people because votes are how you win.
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Moon Sisters sound like Goons from the setup.
All of the scum are Goons.
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Seriously though, it's not a setup you can really game. It really all sits on lynching scum today.
It is a setup you can figure out, and I just did. Yes, it's a very 50-50-oriented setup, but you can go in without thinking or you can try to maximize your odds within the framework.
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Seriously though, it's not a setup you can really game. It really all sits on lynching scum today.
It is a setup you can figure out, and I just did. Yes, it's a very 50-50-oriented setup, but you can go in without thinking or you can try to maximize your odds within the framework.
And it doesn't necessarily sit on lynching scum today. If you massclaim and no-lynch, it sits on lynching scum tomorrow.
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Well without Roleblocking a massclaim is much less dangerous. I'm not sure it's a good idea, though.
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I don't think there is any advantage to scum in claiming more than one VT.
The following is one of the two advantages you listed as supporting evidence as to why we should do a mass-claim:
- Scum has to NK a VT to prevent revealing themselves, which makes it so that for every scum, there is one townie who knows 100% that the scum is scum, and Kubo's perspective gets boosted from 3/7 to 50% in all cases
If all scums claim VT, then this reasoning is void, and we definitely lose Monkey in the night. I want to be sure everyone's aware of that, and scum doesn't try to shove that plan through under the radar.
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An addition cause of concern over Awaclus is his "townslip" that RR was so keen to pick up on.
It's not a townslip so much as way of searching out VT reactions, or in other words, of narrowing down the possibilities of which townies might be Beetle, who presumably has a QT. Granted, Monkey is a valuable PR who presumably doesn't need to have a QT, so it's not 100% anti-town, but it does still feel like it could be a subtle PR-hunting ploy.
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Synthesis of game so far.
gkrieg and ww (and me) push for quicklynch, first on Awaclus. SA makes a comment on awaclus, and ww and gkrieg move on SA.
Lalight is super concerned by a quickhammer (alarm bells!). Jake agrees.
WW and LL argue about quickhammers. WW seems to think one correct lynch wins. Awaclus points out in all cases it will take more than today's lynch to end the game.
RR empty posts (scummy). WW pushes him to vote randomly (scummy). Lalight picks up on RR's first post.
SA keeps townreading Awaclus (towny), gkrieg thinks scum's QT invalidates that reasoning.
Awaclus starts pushing for massclaim. RR says Awaclus townslipped (towny). RR thinks SA is scummy for not seeing it. (SA disagreeing is scummy?)
Jake makes weird post about LL being scum a lot recently. SA picks up on it. Jake says LL and Awaclus have been playing differently than in last games.
RR makes weird post about Jake (scummy).
LL moves his vote to SA. SA moves their vote to WW (no-hammer argument)
Awaclus and LL argue setup and massclaim.
Jake moves his vote to SA (scummy). SA says it could be a quickhammer prep. A bit later, WW moves his vote to Jake.
Awaclus pushes the massclaim thing further.
Mmmm hard to conclude, but the people that have been pushing the most confusion into the game are WW (quicklynch!), Awaclus (only setup talk in a very short game) and RR (lots of empty and/or weird posts). I think Lalight's scumminess and towniness sort of balances out. Jake seems scummy, but from the little I've seen from him in other games, it looks like he has a tendency to get mislynched. SA seems towny. That covers all.
I haven't had the time to analyze wagons and lack of quickhammers yet.
PPE: I dislike the massclaim idea because we don't have enough time to coordinate it properly, and that's when bad things happen.
PPE 16
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I don't think there is any advantage to scum in claiming more than one VT.
The following is one of the two advantages you listed as supporting evidence as to why we should do a mass-claim:
- Scum has to NK a VT to prevent revealing themselves, which makes it so that for every scum, there is one townie who knows 100% that the scum is scum, and Kubo's perspective gets boosted from 3/7 to 50% in all cases
If all scums claim VT, then this reasoning is void, and we definitely lose Monkey in the night. I want to be sure everyone's aware of that, and scum doesn't try to shove that plan through under the radar.
That is an advantage to massclaim + no lynch. If all scum claims VT, we can just take advantage of dat VT lynching probability today.
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WW seems to think one correct lynch wins.
One correct lynch DOES win:
This game uses two white flags:
1) If the Moon King is lynched, town wins immediately.
2) If both Moon Sisters are lynched, town wins immediately.
The correct (winning) lynch is the Moon King.
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I don't think there is any advantage to scum in claiming more than one VT.
The following is one of the two advantages you listed as supporting evidence as to why we should do a mass-claim:
- Scum has to NK a VT to prevent revealing themselves, which makes it so that for every scum, there is one townie who knows 100% that the scum is scum, and Kubo's perspective gets boosted from 3/7 to 50% in all cases
If all scums claim VT, then this reasoning is void, and we definitely lose Monkey in the night. I want to be sure everyone's aware of that, and scum doesn't try to shove that plan through under the radar.
I am pretty sure that any scenario in which scum NK's two people is a scenario in which we've lost.
Seriously, I think it's better to ignore the setup, save for claims at L-1, only oh wait, scum will probably quickhammer through those anyway...
WW seems to think one correct lynch wins.
One correct lynch DOES win:
This game uses two white flags:
1) If the Moon King is lynched, town wins immediately.
2) If both Moon Sisters are lynched, town wins immediately.
The correct (winning) lynch is the Moon King.
Bah, that is so terribly misleading. Scum gains way more from a quicklynch than town. vote: WW. Let's do this people.
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PPE: I dislike the massclaim idea because we don't have enough time to coordinate it properly, and that's when bad things happen.
We have plenty of time to coordinate it properly, people just need to talk about it.
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How is pointing out townslips townie? Scum is far more aware (and possibly able to actually know the veracity of) of those things than town is.
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Seriously, I think it's better to ignore the setup
Are you worried scum is going to lose if we follow my plan?
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Bah, that is so terribly misleading. Scum gains way more from a quicklynch than town. vote: WW. Let's do this people.
What the shit are you talking about?
My reason for pointing this out in the first place was that LaLight seemed unaware of it. Scum would not be.
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You point out a bunch of things that are blatant town behavior and call them scummy, and you point out a bunch of questionable stuff and call it townie.
I can't tell if you're just wrong at Mafia or purposefully backwards.
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And why in the fuck are people criticizing quicklynches?
This is a blitz game. All lynches are quicklynches.
It's like everyone is playing a different game than me.
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It's like everyone is playing a different game than me.
Well, yeah. You should start playing the game that the rest of us are playing, too.
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How is pointing out townslips townie? Scum is far more aware (and possibly able to actually know the veracity of) of those things than town is.
Scum is better at noticing them, but less likely to actually point them out, lest they risk making a virtual IC.
Bah, that is so terribly misleading. Scum gains way more from a quicklynch than town. vote: WW. Let's do this people.
What the shit are you talking about?
My reason for pointing this out in the first place was that LaLight seemed unaware of it. Scum would not be.
Saying that one correct lynch means that town wins is not at all the same thing that saying that one specific correct lynch wins. You didn't specify what you meant until 6 pages later! Any one actual mislynch actually means town loses, unless Beetle guesses correctly who does the NK. The asymmetry between the two situations is huge, yet you pretend they are one and the same to push people to vote fast and quickly.
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And why in the fuck are people criticizing quicklynches?
This is a blitz game. All lynches are quicklynches.
It's like everyone is playing a different game than me.
There are quicklynches and then there's setting up a quickhammer. Scum only needs two town votes on town to win. The faster votes move around, the easier it is for that to happen.
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Scum knows that if they see it, someone else is going to. So getting out in front if it looks better than them. Scum likes to look like town.
Saying that one correct lynch means that town wins is not at all the same thing that saying that one specific correct lynch wins. You didn't specify what you meant until 6 pages later! Any one actual mislynch actually means town loses, unless Beetle guesses correctly who does the NK. The asymmetry between the two situations is huge, yet you pretend they are one and the same to push people to vote fast and quickly.
It is exactly the same thing. I just clarified what I meant by correct, in case it was not clear. Why is this a discussion? Do you think you know what I mean more than I know what I mean?
If we lynch a certain person, we win. End of story.
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"Win" should be in between quotes because Beetle, but you see what I mean.
PPE: I do not think I know what you mean more than you do. I am saying what you said sounded completely different from what you are now saying you meant.
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And why in the fuck are people criticizing quicklynches?
This is a blitz game. All lynches are quicklynches.
It's like everyone is playing a different game than me.
There are quicklynches and then there's setting up a quickhammer. Scum only needs two town votes on town to win. The faster votes move around, the easier it is for that to happen.
I mean that's clearly not true; if two town vote (newsflash: my vote is town) do not linger on the same person (town!Person; scum cant' get quickhammered by scum), then the quickhammer can't happen.
Hey, guess what, scum quickhammering is identifiable.
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Well without Roleblocking a massclaim is much less dangerous. I'm not sure it's a good idea, though.
It is, I've actually read the setup quite thoroughly and spent this whole day thinking about it.
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"Win" should be in between quotes because Beetle, but you see what I mean.
PPE: I do not think I know what you mean more than you do. I am saying what you said sounded completely different from what you are now saying you meant.
Well I'm telling you I'm not retroactively changing what I meant.
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Stop this nonsense and start massclaiming.
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I mean that's clearly not true; if two town vote (newsflash: my vote is town) do not linger on the same person (town!Person; scum cant' get quickhammered by scum), then the quickhammer can't happen.
Hey, guess what, scum quickhammering is identifiable.
That's a fair point, but I think you are forgetting about daychat. A quickhammer can be instant if properly coordinated.
"Win" should be in between quotes because Beetle, but you see what I mean.
PPE: I do not think I know what you mean more than you do. I am saying what you said sounded completely different from what you are now saying you meant.
Well I'm telling you I'm not retroactively changing what I meant.
Look, I can see the narrative of you being town. But I can also see the narrative of you being scum. And look at it from my perspective, there's three scum in here, someone has to be it. Right now, it looks like one of them is you.
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Stop this nonsense and start massclaiming.
...nice.
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Stop this nonsense and start massclaiming.
We need gkrieg to determine the order and it's all ready.
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Stop this nonsense and start massclaiming.
We need gkrieg to determine the order and it's all ready.
I mean, I don't think the order really even matters because we know what scum is going to claim anyway. We can just use the sign up order from 1st post.
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I mean that's clearly not true; if two town vote (newsflash: my vote is town) do not linger on the same person (town!Person; scum cant' get quickhammered by scum), then the quickhammer can't happen.
Hey, guess what, scum quickhammering is identifiable.
That's a fair point, but I think you are forgetting about daychat. A quickhammer can be instant if properly coordinated.
It's not as easy as you think. All three have to be online, first, and, more importantly, it looks suspicious! If it fails--if town is online and senses it is happening and unvotes---you've shown yourself.
For the record, this is why I didn't vote Jake right away; I wanted to hold out and see if anyone else joined. That not happening could mean Space is scum, could mean that other two weren't online, or that someone on wagon was already scum. (Those scenarios being the ones wherein Jake is scum trying to get the quickhammer.)
Also, if you are worried about quickhammers, you should be suspicious of people not voting. You need a scum off wagon to get the hammer, and two town need to be on it already.
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Stop this nonsense and start massclaiming.
We need gkrieg to determine the order and it's all ready.
I mean, I don't think the order really even matters because we know what scum is going to claim anyway. We can just use the sign up order from 1st post.
So, do I start? I need to be sure actually that everyone will claim.
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Also, if you are worried about quickhammers, you should be suspicious of people not voting. You need a scum off wagon to get the hammer, and two town need to be on it already.
I don't follow, care to explain?
I think RR is the only one that hasn't voted yet.
@massclaim: correct me if I am wrong, but only LL and Awaclus have confirmed yet? I will do it if that's what people are doing, but I would rather wait for gkrieg's view on the topic.
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I think massclaim would've been more effective with no time to plan. The fact that Awaclus talked about it last night before he went to bed is too bad.
I think it is a good idea though, seeing as it is MYLO
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Sure. Claim order?
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Sign up order is fine
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ok, a sec
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vote: LaLight
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What sec? Why do you need a sec?
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so, here's the story you should believe: before game started I was at the computer and wrote a starting post, which should've been the first post of mine. Then the game started.. But I was on the street with the phone. I decided to wait when I'll be home to post it, but then some crazy stuff started to happen and I needed to respond from the phone.
When I got home I found out that my computer switched off without saving anything. So there's that.
That post started with "Yesterday" and ended with "All you need is Moon King". Beatles.
I am a Beetle.
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What sec? Why do you need a sec?
Cause i was typing a story!
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I'm a Vanilla Villager.
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vote: LaLight
You have already been voting me :)
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Jake is next.
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I'm a vanilla villager
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For future references
Jake - Paco - WW - RR - SA
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I'm a VT.
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Interesting
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What sec? Why do you need a sec?
Cause i was typing a story!
It was a cool story.
WW's claim next.
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Is it cool if I claim early, gkrieg? My office is really busy this afternoon, so timing is limited for me...
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Is it cool if I claim early, gkrieg? My office is really busy this afternoon, so timing is limited for me...
I'm not gkrieg but I don't see why not.
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Go for it
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VT
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Very interesting.
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Is it cool if I claim early, gkrieg? My office is really busy this afternoon, so timing is limited for me...
Sure
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RR's not currently showing as online, and he's the only one before me now anyway. I'm a vanilla villager.
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Cool. Vote: pacovf
I'm tentatively inclined to say that it's pacovf/WW/Jake.
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Would like to hear from RR
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Would like to hear from RR
Yeah
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Well, one person left to claim, one PR left to claim. That's... rather unexpected, but ok.
Cool. Vote: pacovf
I'm tentatively inclined to say that it's pacovf/WW/Jake.
Oh, we are lynching now? What's the reasoning?
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Cool. Vote: pacovf
I'm tentatively inclined to say that it's pacovf/WW/Jake.
Don't we no lynch?
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Huh? Why no lynch?
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Oh, we are lynching now? What's the reasoning?
No lynch would have been good with 1 VT fake claim. Now we had 3, so it's better to lynch a claimed VT and enjoy the fact that we have 3 ICs.
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Oh, we are lynching now? What's the reasoning?
No lynch would have been good with 1 VT fake claim. Now we had 3, so it's better to lynch a claimed VT and enjoy the fact that we have 3 ICs.
There's 2 VT in the setup.
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Oh, we are lynching now? What's the reasoning?
No lynch would have been good with 1 VT fake claim. Now we had 3, so it's better to lynch a claimed VT and enjoy the fact that we have 3 ICs.
There's 2 VT in the setup.
And 5 VTs claimed, which means 3 of them are scum. And the 3 people who didn't claim VT are ICs.
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Yep. Claimed VTs are Awaclus, Jake, pacovf, WW, SA. So it's fairly easy for any of us to figure out scum.
I am still happy with my vote on WW.
I am wondering whether scum!Awaclus forces a massclaim in which all scum claim VT and make two ICs. What's the benefit? Finding Monkey? Sure seems like a big risk, to not have any fakeclaim.
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I want all VTs to say who they think the other town Vt is.
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I think Awaclus is town.
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I think SA is town.
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I want to vote WW. Gkrieg, may you unvote me now?
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Awaclus seems towny, in spite of my worry over earlier PR-fishing. Paco would be my back-up choice, though obviously at most one of the two of them is actually town.
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I want to vote WW. Gkrieg, may you unvote me now?
No, you don't.
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RR is online but hasn't posted.
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I would like to point out for the record that (evidently) I was correct about LaLight. Just for future reference on the "you should listen to WW reads" front.
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I would like to point out for the record that (evidently) I was correct about LaLight. Just for future reference on the "you should listen to WW reads" front.
Or you knew my alignment?
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I would like to point out for the record that (evidently) I was correct about LaLight. Just for future reference on the "you should listen to WW reads" front.
Or you knew my alignment?
Nope. My initial reaction was to think your hypersensitivity towards quicklynches was scummy.
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I'm beetle, heck you LaLight
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I feel like scum just miscommunicated in their QT
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You feel however you want as long as you lynch LaLight.
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I'm beetle, heck you LaLight
I don't think you are.
vote: RR
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You feel however you want as long as you lynch LaLight.
Walk me through your last ~15 minutes please.
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The fuck?
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How are there 4 people fakeclaiming?
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I checked, it's Beetle. rr, don't you confuse it with Monkey?
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Well, the plot thickens.
Need to think.
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You feel however you want as long as you lynch LaLight.
Walk me through your last ~15 minutes please.
Got to class, saw we had a sub, hopped on the forum, saw a fake claim, skimmed everything else
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I checked, it's Beetle. rr, don't you confuse it with Monkey?
I am a roleblocker.
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I checked, it's Beetle. rr, don't you confuse it with Monkey?
I am a roleblocker.
Named beetle
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Okay then, ggod we found you then.
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Unvote
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I checked, it's Beetle. rr, don't you confuse it with Monkey?
I am a roleblocker.
Named beetle
Who was your top choice to RB tonight up to this point?
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How are there 4 people fakeclaiming?
Assuming RR didn't misread his PM, that would mean Monkey claimed VT.
Now the question is whether we want to lynch from within the VTs, or within the beetles.
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I checked, it's Beetle. rr, don't you confuse it with Monkey?
I am a roleblocker.
Named beetle
Who was your top choice to RB tonight up to this point?
I didn't choose one, and Ash sent me a reminding PM. So a few minutes ago I chose Pacovf
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How are there 4 people fakeclaiming?
Assuming RR didn't misread his PM, that would mean Monkey claimed VT.
Now the question is whether we want to lynch from within the VTs, or within the beetles.
We should obviously lynch WW at this point.
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Well, Space is very likely scum here.
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RR i mean lol
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Well, Space is very likely scum here.
Yes! Claiming earlier, of course!
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How is it obvious to anyone but you?
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LaLight, same question to you about RB choice.
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I checked, it's Beetle. rr, don't you confuse it with Monkey?
I am a roleblocker.
Named beetle
Who was your top choice to RB tonight up to this point?
I didn't choose one, and Ash sent me a reminding PM. So a few minutes ago I chose Pacovf
This is not what I asked. I asked who your top choice was, meaning who would you want to choose. I didn't presume to think you chose.
So answer that.
Also why Pacovf?
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How is it obvious to anyone but you?
Because your partners made it so you claim last.
Ppe: i have already sent you, WW as a placeholder.
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I wasn't sure. Honestly I wasn't even really thinking about that, I was thinking about who we were going to lynch.
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I checked, it's Beetle. rr, don't you confuse it with Monkey?
I am a roleblocker.
Named beetle
Who was your top choice to RB tonight up to this point?
I didn't choose one, and Ash sent me a reminding PM. So a few minutes ago I chose Pacovf
I wouldn't presume to tell a PR how to play but uh, this is bad.
PPE: 30 or so
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Vts are out of:
{Pac, Space, Jake}
and then one of
{LaLight, RR}
So .. hm.. I liked Space and Jake but Jake's vote on Space spooked me there. Was a good move if they were scum.
I'm discounting Awaclus, yes it's a risk but this is Blitz Mafia. You should all be discounting the possibility that I'm scum but maybe you're not as psychic as I assume you should be.
We should realize that King is not in {LaLight, RR} very likely (WIFOM but whatever). I'm going to assume not. Doesn't mean don't lynch there; we probably do, but keep in mind.
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If we would lynch WW i'd choose SA.
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How is it obvious to anyone but you?
Because your partners made it so you claim last.
Ppe: i have already sent you, WW as a placeholder.
Oh come on.
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I think i am gonna change my choice but ibviously won't tell it.
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LaLight's claim seems very well thought out, mine doesn't. Call it confirmation bias, but that makes him scummier.
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Eh, I guess this is fine. The real Monkey can claim tomorrow. Let's lynch LaLight for the time being.
Vote: LaLight
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So 50% chance to lynch scum in the Beetles, compared to 40% in the VTs. On the other hand, if we lynch Beetle, we insta-lose, while if we lynch the Moon King, we insta-win.
So it's better to lynch a VT. We can argue about Beetles tomorrow.
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Eh, I guess this is fine. The real Monkey can claim tomorrow. Let's lynch LaLight for the time being.
Vote: LaLight
So, why?
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When reads are involved, 1/2 is better than 50/100. So 1/2 is more than 10% better than 2/5. Also, we'll get information after scum kills someone (if they do).
Ppe
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Eh, I guess this is fine. The real Monkey can claim tomorrow. Let's lynch LaLight for the time being.
Vote: LaLight
So, why?
Why not?
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So 50% chance to lynch scum in the Beetles, compared to 40% in the VTs. On the other hand, if we lynch Beetle, we insta-lose, while if we lynch the Moon King, we insta-win.
So it's better to lynch a VT. We can argue about Beetles tomorrow.
So who is your choice?
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Well, Space is very likely scum here.
Yes! Claiming earlier, of course!
Can you explain this?
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Eh, I guess this is fine. The real Monkey can claim tomorrow. Let's lynch LaLight for the time being.
Vote: LaLight
So, why?
I haven't figured out whether or not I should be explaining my reads in this setup, yet. So, because you're scum.
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Vts are out of:
{Pac, Space, Jake}
and then one of
{LaLight, RR}
So .. hm.. I liked Space and Jake but Jake's vote on Space spooked me there. Was a good move if they were scum.
I'm discounting Awaclus, yes it's a risk but this is Blitz Mafia. You should all be discounting the possibility that I'm scum but maybe you're not as psychic as I assume you should be.
We should realize that King is not in {LaLight, RR} very likely (WIFOM but whatever). I'm going to assume not. Doesn't mean don't lynch there; we probably do, but keep in mind.
Why are you discounting Awaclus?
-
Vts are out of:
{Pac, Space, Jake}
and then one of
{LaLight, RR}
So .. hm.. I liked Space and Jake but Jake's vote on Space spooked me there. Was a good move if they were scum.
I'm discounting Awaclus, yes it's a risk but this is Blitz Mafia. You should all be discounting the possibility that I'm scum but maybe you're not as psychic as I assume you should be.
We should realize that King is not in {LaLight, RR} very likely (WIFOM but whatever). I'm going to assume not. Doesn't mean don't lynch there; we probably do, but keep in mind.
Why are you discounting Awaclus?
I don't think he goes down this path as scum. I don't particularly think it's the right one, but I think he plays scum differently.
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Well, Space is very likely scum here.
Yes! Claiming earlier, of course!
Can you explain this?
Yeah, no, i am wrong. I thought SA was the last but claimed earlier so WW will claim after and RR the last one so they see WW's role. But i am wrong.
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Pacovf would be my default choice if the day ended in like an hour.
Why'd you say this, RR?
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Pacovf would be my default choice if the day ended in like an hour.
Why'd you say this, RR?
Ha! I forgot I said that. Because I found him scummy for some reason.
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Well, Space is very likely scum here.
Yes! Claiming earlier, of course!
Can you explain this?
Yeah, no, i am wrong. I thought SA was the last but claimed earlier so WW will claim after and RR the last one so they see WW's role. But i am wrong.
I actually claimed before Space.
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Pacovf would be my default choice if the day ended in like an hour.
Why'd you say this, RR?
Ha! I forgot I said that. Because I found him scummy for some reason.
Yes, we can go ahead and assume I'm looking for the "some reason" part of this.
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Pacovf would be my default choice if the day ended in like an hour.
Why'd you say this, RR?
Ha! I forgot I said that. Because I found him scummy for some reason.
Yes, we can go ahead and assume I'm looking for the "some reason" part of this.
Fine, give me a minute.
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Okay, so I'm calling WW, Jake and then one of RR and LL. There are arguments for either of that last pair.
Jake has been relatively low-profile this game. What does everyone else think for him being the big-money target?
PPE: 6+
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It was just that he was chatting a lot but not contributing anything new, and I figured he could just be grabbing bad ideas and putting more weight behind them.
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Okay, so I'm calling WW, Jake and then one of RR and LL. There are arguments for either of that last pair.
Jake has been relatively low-profile this game. What does everyone else think for him being the big-money target?
PPE: 6+
I'd like this, but I don't really like that it's coming from you. Sorry!
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It was just that he was chatting a lot but not contributing anything new, and I figured he could just be grabbing bad ideas and putting more weight behind them.
Can you exemplify this?
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It was just that he was chatting a lot but not contributing anything new, and I figured he could just be grabbing bad ideas and putting more weight behind them.
Can you exemplify this?
I'll get post numbers
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102, 115, 123
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I think WW is town here.
-
Space/Jake/LaLight?
-
I like Jake/LL for starters, seeing as I like it, the IC does, and Space does.
-
Space/Jake/LaLight?
Why do you think LaLight and not RR?
-
I like Jake/LL for starters, seeing as I like it
Ok.
-
Either way, are we all fine with lynching LaLight or should we lynch Jake instead?
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Excuse me, guys, but I don't understand how all of you can think of RR as town with such a surety.
-
Game is moving along fast, need some time to read through the last few pages.
I still think it's best to ignore the Beetles for today. From among the VTs, it seems like everyone prefers Jake, which automatically makes me paranoid about his lynch.
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Excuse me, guys, but I don't understand how all of you can think of RR as town with such a surety.
Well, perhaps we can't, but at least you can.
-
Unvote
Actually my preference is Space.
-
Game is moving along fast, need some time to read through the last few pages.
I still think it's best to ignore the Beetles for today. From among the VTs, it seems like everyone prefers Jake, which automatically makes me paranoid about his lynch.
This does not say who you think it is.
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I'm going to have a hard time going for RR over LaLight. It would also mean I was wrong earlier, and my "look guys I'm good at reading post" would look especially stupid.
I mean there's shame involved.
-
I guess I was wrong either way:
That should be scum!King not scum!Queen.
What I'm getting at is Jake could be king and SA could still be scum.
I like how you keep your lynch options wide open! Any townreads?
LaLight. RR a little bit. Awaclus is neutral.
but if it's LaLight I was more wrong :/
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so, here's the story you should believe: before game started I was at the computer and wrote a starting post, which should've been the first post of mine. Then the game started.. But I was on the street with the phone. I decided to wait when I'll be home to post it, but then some crazy stuff started to happen and I needed to respond from the phone.
When I got home I found out that my computer switched off without saving anything. So there's that.
That post started with "Yesterday" and ended with "All you need is Moon King". Beatles.
I am a Beetle.
So you never actually posted this?
Certainly someone doesn't make up this story, because it's just not something you think to make up. So this post intended to have been posted, which means LaLight is town or he was planning to fake claim scum from the very beginning.
Latter is not unlikely: scum would have talked about fake claiming to out PR and get the winning mislynch in.
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so, here's the story you should believe: before game started I was at the computer and wrote a starting post, which should've been the first post of mine. Then the game started.. But I was on the street with the phone. I decided to wait when I'll be home to post it, but then some crazy stuff started to happen and I needed to respond from the phone.
When I got home I found out that my computer switched off without saving anything. So there's that.
That post started with "Yesterday" and ended with "All you need is Moon King". Beatles.
I am a Beetle.
So you never actually posted this?
Certainly someone doesn't make up this story, because it's just not something you think to make up. So this post intended to have been posted, which means LaLight is town or he was planning to fake claim scum from the very beginning.
Latter is not unlikely: scum would have talked about fake claiming to out PR and get the winning mislynch in.
I was going. I had that breadcrumb in mind the first time I saw a "Beetle" word.
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Certainly someone doesn't make up this story, because it's just not something you think to make up.
Isn't making the story up the exact same as ever considering to post the post in the first place? I mean, he probably didn't come up with it on the spot, but he could have made it up somewhere in between the start of the game and his claim.
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Wait why me? I jump of for a hour and all of a sudden I'm scum??? I say we lynch one of the beetles. I'm gonna break down some numbers on why. Ok if we lynch one of the bettles we have a 50% of hitting scum and a 50% chance of hitting town. If we lynch a vt we have a 40% chance of hitting scum and a 60% chance of hitting town making it more likely to hit town than the other option. Now someone may say that these are just vts at mylo but remember that the monkey has chosen to claim vt so at ethier choice we have the chance of losing a pr. This is why I like the idea of lynching one of the bettles today because the numbers favor our chance at hitting scum more with that option. Also we're at mylo so it doesn't matter what role we lynch. ( Come on let's be realistic that bettle only has a 20 or 16% chance of hitting scum tonight if we lynch wrong so therefore I say we go with the numbers) Also I think WW is the other town vt.
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Vote Count 1.7:
LaLight (2): gkrieg13, Awaclus
SA (1): Jake
WW (1): SA
Jake (1): Pacovf
RR (1): LaLight
Not Voting (2): RR, WW
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.
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Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?
Lynching King is instawin. Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.
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Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?
Lynching King is instawin. Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.
Only kubo is insta lose
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vote: LL
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Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?
Lynching King is instawin. Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.
Only kubo is insta lose
I don't think this is true. Lynch Bettle, nothing stops NK, tomorrow 3v3 cannot lynch, get endgamed.
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vote: LL
So what were you waiting for the whole time?
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Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?
Lynching King is instawin. Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.
Only kubo is insta lose
I don't think this is true. Lynch Bettle, nothing stops NK, tomorrow 3v3 cannot lynch, get endgamed.
I already explained this. We're at MYLO. The chance of bettle hitting the right scum is around 16% which is very low so I don't think it matters if we lynch a bettle plus we have better odds of hitting scum if we lynch a beetle than a vt. I go in depth further in my last post.
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If we lynch scum from claimed VT, if they are King we win. If they are sister, then we will be at 5v2, say a kill goes through so 4v2. But now either scum kill is automatic win, because both sisters is win too. So they have to kill a VT. So it will be {LL, RR}, {VT, VT,VT}, Gkrieg. Mislynch out of {LL, RR} loses, mislynch out of VT loses unless RB blocks correctly. Correct lynch wins.
If we lynch a sister today and RB chooses correctly and blocks the kill, then we would go into tomorrow at 5v2. At which case we can lynch {LL, RR} in any order.
If we mislynch a VT today, it's a loss unless RB chooses correctly.
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Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?
Lynching King is instawin. Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.
Only kubo is insta lose
I don't think this is true. Lynch Bettle, nothing stops NK, tomorrow 3v3 cannot lynch, get endgamed.
I already explained this. We're at MYLO. The chance of bettle hitting the right scum is around 16% which is very low so I don't think it matters if we lynch a bettle plus we have better odds of hitting scum if we lynch a beetle than a vt. I go in depth further in my last post.
It's pretty hard for Beetle to Roleblock after he has been lynched. Lynching Beetle is instant loss.
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Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?
Lynching King is instawin. Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.
Only kubo is insta lose
I don't think this is true. Lynch Bettle, nothing stops NK, tomorrow 3v3 cannot lynch, get endgamed.
I already explained this. We're at MYLO. The chance of bettle hitting the right scum is around 16% which is very low so I don't think it matters if we lynch a bettle plus we have better odds of hitting scum if we lynch a beetle than a vt. I go in depth further in my last post.
It's pretty hard for Beetle to Roleblock after he has been lynched. Lynching Beetle is instant loss.
It's almost a insta loss anyway without lynching correct today
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I don't think it's worth writing Jake off just because several of us support the lynch: scum could be making assenting noises just to throw us off.
I'm home from work, but I've got dinner guests right now... will be back in earnest in a few hours.
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I don't think it's worth writing Jake off just because several of us support the lynch: scum could be making assenting noises just to throw us off.
I'm home from work, but I've got dinner guests right now... will be back in earnest in a few hours.
Yeah I gotta go from 4:30 to 7:30 for baseball then I'll be back on.
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Just tell me why everyone thinks RR is town. because you are his scum partners? Why? I really, REALLY don't get it. Help me someone.
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I have no 100% proof of my role. I have a very short pm from ash? I don't have a QT? These all are just words which only i know are truth. I am town, guys. Looks like RR and his partners really decided that if he counterclaims me, everyone will decide to lynch me. And that's what's happening.
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Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?
Lynching King is instawin. Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.
Only kubo is insta lose
I don't think this is true. Lynch Bettle, nothing stops NK, tomorrow 3v3 cannot lynch, get endgamed.
I already explained this. We're at MYLO. The chance of bettle hitting the right scum is around 16% which is very low so I don't think it matters if we lynch a bettle plus we have better odds of hitting scum if we lynch a beetle than a vt. I go in depth further in my last post.
It's pretty hard for Beetle to Roleblock after he has been lynched. Lynching Beetle is instant loss.
It's almost a insta loss anyway without lynching correct today
If only we had some way of estimating exactly what the chance was, we would not need to resort to such qualitative terms as "almost", "very low", etc.
Alas.
The conversation went like this:
Me: If we mislynch between RR and LL it is automatically a loss. I check that I didn't miss anything with mechanics.
You: Not true
Me: Explains why
You: Says more stuff not relevant to the base statement.
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You need to believe me to win. I never did and never would go for 1v1, i would claim VT and just try to look townie. What is the reason for me to out the Beetle? I am the Beetle and RR and his partners knew that no one would believe me. And gkrieg already was suspecting me for something.
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Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?
Lynching King is instawin. Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.
Only kubo is insta lose
I don't think this is true. Lynch Bettle, nothing stops NK, tomorrow 3v3 cannot lynch, get endgamed.
I already explained this. We're at MYLO. The chance of bettle hitting the right scum is around 16% which is very low so I don't think it matters if we lynch a bettle plus we have better odds of hitting scum if we lynch a beetle than a vt. I go in depth further in my last post.
It's pretty hard for Beetle to Roleblock after he has been lynched. Lynching Beetle is instant loss.
It's almost a insta loss anyway without lynching correct today
If only we had some way of estimating exactly what the chance was, we would not need to resort to such qualitative terms as "almost", "very low", etc.
Alas.
The conversation went like this:
Me: If we mislynch between RR and LL it is automatically a loss. I check that I didn't miss anything with mechanics.
You: Not true
Me: Explains why
You: Says more stuff not relevant to the base statement.
Did you not read this where I broke it down with said hard numbers ( they are)
Wait why me? I jump of for a hour and all of a sudden I'm scum??? I say we lynch one of the beetles. I'm gonna break down some numbers on why. Ok if we lynch one of the bettles we have a 50% of hitting scum and a 50% chance of hitting town. If we lynch a vt we have a 40% chance of hitting scum and a 60% chance of hitting town making it more likely to hit town than the other option. Now someone may say that these are just vts at mylo but remember that the monkey has chosen to claim vt so at ethier choice we have the chance of losing a pr. This is why I like the idea of lynching one of the bettles today because the numbers favor our chance at hitting scum more with that option. Also we're at mylo so it doesn't matter what role we lynch. ( Come on let's be realistic that bettle only has a 20 or 16% chance of hitting scum tonight if we lynch wrong so therefore I say we go with the numbers) Also I think WW is the other town vt.
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It's Awaclus/RR plot. idk who's the third, they're really distancing from this. Those two knew that's a blitz and they need a quick attack so everyone will sheep them and they'll win.
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You need to believe me to win. I never did and never would go for 1v1, i would claim VT and just try to look townie. What is the reason for me to out the Beetle? I am the Beetle and RR and his partners knew that no one would believe me. And gkrieg already was suspecting me for something.
Actually, we don't have to believe you to win. Like I said, we can lynch away from you and still win.
The reason for you to out the Beetle is that a mislynch of the Beetle is an automatic win for scum.
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So what happened since RR claimed. I will ignore the RR/LL discussion, because I think lynching there is just way better tomorrow.
Awaclus: forces the massclaim. It looks like we have one scum fakeclaiming Beetle, and Monkey fakeclaiming VT. Any other scenario doesn't make sense. If Awaclus is scum, he says he expected both PRs to be fakeclaimed, and he certainly didn't expect Monkey to fakeclaim VT. Originally he was trying to get a no-lynch after the massclaim, which could have made sense, but not if his original plan didn't go through, which it couldn't have considering the way the scum has claimed. So either the idea was to get the PRs to claim, or I have no idea what his idea was (or scum messed up). Ok, yeah, seems far-fetched, unless somehow the scum team values PRs more than I think they should?
WW looks better out of the massclaim, I think.
This leaves me with SA and Jake. Neither of them have been overtly towny. On the other hand, Jake did put a third vote on SA all the way back then, which makes it unlikely that both are scum. I would normally prefer to lynch Jake, but again so does everyone else, which tends to mean mislynch. Ugh.
Man I wish we had better than gutread for this. Oh wait, wagon analysis
Awaclus: gkrieg (RVS), ww (RVS)
SA: gkrieg, WW (sits there for a while), Lalight then gkrieg leaves (sits there for a while), Jake then WW leaves
Lalight: Awaclus (RVS), pacovf (sits there for a while), then pacovf leaves and gkrieg sits there for a while
WW: pacovf, SA
The the massclaim happens and everything goes fast.
So, assuming the Quickhammer argument is any good, we would have at least one scum in:
{SA,WW}
{SA,LL}
{LL, Awaclus, pacovf}
{WW, pacovf, SA}
Though if SA is town and WW is scum, I don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous. Unless he is playing the long game in a blitz game. So if WW is scum, so is SA. If WW is town, then it's either Awaclus and Jake or Awaclus and SA. On the other hand, I doubt LL or Jake are scum with SA, since both put a third vote on SA.
So, possible scum teams:
SA, RR, Awaclus
SA, RR, WW
Awaclus, Jake, RR
Awaclus, Jake, LL
Not saying that all options are equally likely. And obviously people that aren't me can choose to consider me, but I would recommend against it.
In any case I don't like my vote on WW anymore (which somehow is on Jake according to the mod?). So yeah, vote: SA. I guess I could be convinced to do Awaclus.
PPE: lots, but it's mostly noise?
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@Awaclus, WW: why are you both so certain that LL is scum, rather than RR? I can see good arguments for both.
I don't think it's worth writing Jake off just because several of us support the lynch: scum could be making assenting noises just to throw us off.
I'm home from work, but I've got dinner guests right now... will be back in earnest in a few hours.
Fair. You are right that nobody is actually voting for him, in fact.
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Ok if we lynch one of the bettles we have a 50% of hitting scum and a 50% chance of hitting town. If we lynch a vt we have a 40% chance of hitting scum and a 60% chance of hitting town making it more likely to hit town than the other option.
How did you come to this conclusion?
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@Awaclus, WW: why are you both so certain that LL is scum, rather than RR? I can see good arguments for both.
I was already townreading RR and I think scum!RR would rather just go with the flow and let everyone assume he's an IC until the real Monkey counterclaimed him sooner or later.
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@Awaclus, WW: why are you both so certain that LL is scum, rather than RR? I can see good arguments for both.
I was already townreading RR and I think scum!RR would rather just go with the flow and let everyone assume he's an IC until the real Monkey counterclaimed him sooner or later.
What if he did this because he knew you'd think so and they need a mislynch?
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@Awaclus, WW: why are you both so certain that LL is scum, rather than RR? I can see good arguments for both.
I was already townreading RR and I think scum!RR would rather just go with the flow and let everyone assume he's an IC until the real Monkey counterclaimed him sooner or later.
What if he did this because he knew you'd think so and they need a mislynch?
Then we lose.
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@Awaclus, WW: why are you both so certain that LL is scum, rather than RR? I can see good arguments for both.
I was already townreading RR and I think scum!RR would rather just go with the flow and let everyone assume he's an IC until the real Monkey counterclaimed him sooner or later.
This is a good argument, actually. Though it can be applied inversely: if scum had already decided that he had to claim Beetle, then maybe he preferred to go with the "flow" of the scum plan, rather than react to the things happening in the game. He did take some time to claim, even while online. But yeah, I like this argument.
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No one seems to be accounting for the fact that Monkey doesn't have to choose Kubo to protect, so if we mislynch Beetle it's not an instant loss.
-
Oops that's not true
-
No one seems to be accounting for the fact that Monkey doesn't have to choose Kubo to protect, so if we mislynch Beetle it's not an instant loss.
Do you think scum is going to shoot Kubo when Monkey is still alive?
PPE: That.
-
...
I guess I should have expected you to not read my post.
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You need to believe me to win. I never did and never would go for 1v1, i would claim VT and just try to look townie. What is the reason for me to out the Beetle? I am the Beetle and RR and his partners knew that no one would believe me. And gkrieg already was suspecting me for something.
This is typical cornered scum desperate pleas. It sounds like scum!RR when I mess up a fake claim.
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@Awaclus, WW: why are you both so certain that LL is scum, rather than RR? I can see good arguments for both.
I was already townreading RR and I think scum!RR would rather just go with the flow and let everyone assume he's an IC until the real Monkey counterclaimed him sooner or later.
RR was online for a good 10--15 minutes before claiming. Scum!RR may not have gone this way, but they could have discussed it in QT and decided that he should. He, being the last claimer, was the only option after SA claimed.
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I am... having trouble following your thought process, Jake. Could you try structuring your posts a bit better?
-
My post claiming Beetle was at 2:10. Class starts at 1:55, you can confirm that with Jake. If you want, you can also confirm with Jake that I wasn't on my phone while I was walking in the halls. So, even if we assume I got on my phone at exactly 1:55 (which isn't true) I had to boot up the forum and read half of page 9, pages 10-13 and part of page 14. Assuming that's about 110 posts and it takes a minute to boot the forum up, this means I looked at 110 posts in 14 minutes. Also, I looked at that PM from Ashersky and replied to it, so let's say 13 minutes.
What's 110 divided by 13?
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8.4. Looking at 8.4 posts per minute is one post every 7 seconds. So I wouldn't have had time to talk in the scum QT, nor did I formulate some master plan.
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Vote Count 1.8:
LaLight (3): gkrieg13, Awaclus, RR
SA (2): Jake, Pacovf
WW (1): SA
RR (1): LaLight
Not Voting (1): WW
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.
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Wait, you didn't know you were Beetle before the massclaim?
PPE: well, we have no way to know. You could have just skimmed, or maybe somebody posted the important stuff ("claim Beetle!") in the scum QT.
Also, let's avoid communication about the game outside this thread, please.
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@Awaclus, gkrieg: if you are wrong about who is fakeclaiming Beetle, we insta-lose. Let's vote from among the VTs first.
Especially considering there is a PR inside, which can claim if pushed, our odds there are much better.
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I'm pretty settled on lynching from the VTs.
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vote: SA
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I am not lynching from the VTs.
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Wait, you didn't know you were Beetle before the massclaim?
I think he means the PM ashersky sent him to remind him about his ability.
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I am not lynching from the VTs.
You might have to.
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vote: SA
Why not Jake?
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I am not lynching from the VTs.
You might have to.
There is someone who is confirmed scum to me.
According to my wincon, it is not in my best interest to lynch among the VTs.
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I am not lynching from the VTs.
You might have to.
There is someone who is confirmed scum to me.
According to my wincon, it is not in my best interest to lynch among the VTs.
This sounds like such a scum-trying-to-pretend-like-he's-in-the-mindset-of-really-having-his-fakeclaim thing to say :/
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I am not lynching from the VTs.
You might have to.
There is someone who is confirmed scum to me.
According to my wincon, it is not in my best interest to lynch among the VTs.
I understand that, but this setup is kind of weird and it allows for situations where you have to lynch someone who isn't confirmed scum even when someone else is. After all, you're the only one who knows for sure that LaLight is scum, and we can't afford to lynch him just to check unless we really think he is scum.
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I am not lynching from the VTs.
You might have to.
There is someone who is confirmed scum to me.
According to my wincon, it is not in my best interest to lynch among the VTs.
You will have to lynch among the VTs either today or tomorrow. For all townies other than Beetle, it's better to lynch first from among the VTs, so the best you can do, as town, is to get your vote somewhere useful, so that scum has less control over who gets lynched.
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I was under the impression that everyone was cool with lynching LaLight and Jake. Then Kubo votes for SA and we all lose it.
The only reason that I wouldn't lynch LaLight is if I really thought someone was the Moon King.
PPE
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I am not lynching from the VTs.
You might have to.
There is someone who is confirmed scum to me.
According to my wincon, it is not in my best interest to lynch among the VTs.
This sounds like such a scum-trying-to-pretend-like-he's-in-the-mindset-of-really-having-his-fakeclaim thing to say :/
Maybe, but let's try to avoid analyzing RR/LL's posts, or else we will end up convincing ourselves that's the best place to lynch.
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I was under the impression that everyone was cool with lynching LaLight and Jake. Then Kubo votes for SA and we all lose it.
The only reason that I wouldn't lynch LaLight is if I really thought someone was the Moon King.
PPE
Please see:
You will have to lynch among the VTs either today or tomorrow. For all townies other than Beetle, it's better to lynch first from among the VTs, so the best you can do, as town, is to get your vote somewhere useful, so that scum has less control over who gets lynched.
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I was under the impression that everyone was cool with lynching LaLight and Jake. Then Kubo votes for SA and we all lose it.
The only reason that I wouldn't lynch LaLight is if I really thought someone was the Moon King.
PPE
Except from your standpoint, Sister is just as good as Moon King.
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There probably won't be a tomorrow if we mislynch a VT today. If we lynch LaLight today and I get NKed, tomorrow looks like (SA, Pacovf, Gkrieg, WW, Jake, Awaclus)
Hopefully one will claim Monkey and we'll have 2 ICs.
And for all townies other than Beetle it's better to lynch among the VTs first. This may be true, but I don't fall into that category.
PPE
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I was under the impression that everyone was cool with lynching LaLight and Jake. Then Kubo votes for SA and we all lose it.
The only reason that I wouldn't lynch LaLight is if I really thought someone was the Moon King.
PPE
Except from your standpoint, Sister is just as good as Moon King.
I'm worried people will be persuaded to lynch me over LaLight.
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I was under the impression that everyone was cool with lynching LaLight and Jake. Then Kubo votes for SA and we all lose it.
The only reason that I wouldn't lynch LaLight is if I really thought someone was the Moon King.
PPE
Please see:
You will have to lynch among the VTs either today or tomorrow. For all townies other than Beetle, it's better to lynch first from among the VTs, so the best you can do, as town, is to get your vote somewhere useful, so that scum has less control over who gets lynched.
This goes to Lalight too, by the way. Or, I guess both of them could keep their votes on each other. Does that change anything?
PPE 2
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The only reason that I wouldn't lynch LaLight is if I really thought someone was the Moon King.
Hey, someone is the Moon King! I don't know who it is, but it's someone for sure. So you don't have to lynch LaLight now!
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The only reason that I wouldn't lynch LaLight is if I really thought someone was the Moon King.
Hey, someone is the Moon King! I don't know who it is, but it's someone for sure. So you don't have to lynch LaLight now!
It could be LaLight! :o
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There probably won't be a tomorrow if we mislynch a VT today.
Probably, but if we mislynch Beetle, there certainly won't be a tomorrow. See the difference?
PS: it's frigging cold where I am. Typing is unnecessarily hard. Ugh.
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There probably won't be a tomorrow if we mislynch a VT today.
Probably, but if we mislynch Beetle, there certainly won't be a tomorrow. See the difference?
PS: it's frigging cold where I am. Typing is unnecessarily hard. Ugh.
But if we lynch LaLight we just hit scum, we don't mislynch Beetle or a VT.
And let's be real for a second. Assuming I'm Beetle, do you guys really think I'll be able to successfully block?
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There probably won't be a tomorrow if we mislynch a VT today. If we lynch LaLight today and I get NKed, tomorrow looks like (SA, Pacovf, Gkrieg, WW, Jake, Awaclus)
Hopefully one will claim Monkey and we'll have 2 ICs.
And for all townies other than Beetle it's better to lynch among the VTs first. This may be true, but I don't fall into that category.
PPE
You don't fall into that category, but you still play on the same team and have to cooperate with us. Unless scum is bussing, literally every townie needs to vote for the same person if we want town to win.
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But if we lynch LaLight we just hit scum, we don't mislynch Beetle or a VT.
...nice.
And let's be real for a second. Assuming I'm Beetle, do you guys really think I'll be able to successfully block?
You would have a 20% chance. There is no reason to throw that away.
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You would have a 20% chance. There is no reason to throw that away.
This is assuming I'd guess randomly. I suspect I might do worse than random.
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Well then, just throw a die. There, problem solved!
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Well then, just throw a die. There, problem solved!
I'm not sure if you're joking or not, but I'm near that point.
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I'm pretty sure it's LaLight/Jake/pacovf though.
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I'm pretty sure it's LaLight/Jake/pacovf though.
Why not Space?
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Well then, just throw a die. There, problem solved!
I'm not sure if you're joking or not, but I'm near that point.
It's a joke, but I am confused by why you would throw away that chance. Anyway, this conversation is detracting from the actual wagons.
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I'm pretty sure it's LaLight/Jake/pacovf though.
Why not Space?
(https://media.makeameme.org/created/Why-not-Zoidberg-vyotfu.jpg)
Sorry sorry I had to
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I'm pretty sure it's LaLight/Jake/pacovf though.
Why not Space?
Because Jake and pacovf started to be like "let's lynch from the VTs" as soon as everyone wanted to lynch LaLight. Both Jake and pacovf even said that the odds for hitting scum that way is 40%. What's very notable about this is that I would have said that the odds are 50%, given that I'm a VT myself so that leaves me with 1 real VT, 1 real Monkey and 2 scum to look for in the other 4 claimed VTs. This suggests that they aren't VTs (or Monkeys, for that matter), because they aren't thinking from a VT perspective. Instead, I think they are thinking from a perspective where they were trying to figure out what's the odds for "town" to hit scum, i.e. a scum perspective.
Furthermore, the fact that they both posted similar percentages suggests that they actually had a conversation in their QT; otherwise, I'm not sure if Jake would be posting that probability stuff at all. It's worth noting that in Squid Girl Mafia, there was a very similar situation in which scum!LaLight was under attack from me, scum!mcmc jumped to his defense, and scum!Jake sheeped scum!mcmc, even to the point of using similar vocabulary in his post where he defended scum!LaLight — the same pattern is going on here.
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You are misremembering how things went. I said I wanted to lynch from the VTs (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=16911.msg683132#msg683132) literally 30 seconds after the first person (you) said that they wanted to lynch Lalight. I don't make posts that fast.
BTW, I always make abstraction of my own alignment when doing simple probabilities. I find them to be more honest that way.
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Vote Count 1.9:
LaLight (2): Awaclus, RR
SA (3): Jake, Pacovf, gkrieg13
WW (1): SA
RR (1): LaLight
Not Voting (1): WW
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.
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I seem to recall a post with a bunch of numbers. If Pacifv made it, Awaclus's argument holds water. But I need to check and see who made it.
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Ok, let's just conclude the setup discussion and go back to scumhunting:
-if we mislynch, then either Beetle roleblocks the nightkill (~20% chance) or we lose.
-if we lynch correctly, then either we win outright (33%) or we have to find another scum tomorrow. If we don't, we lose, unless Beetle roleblocks the kill either night (~50%).
-scum has daychat and can coordinate quickhammers.
tl;dr let's lynch scum today please.
Flash townread
towny-ish?SA, Awaclus
scummy: Lalight, WW
null (not enough content): RR, Jake
Here are some numbers, although not the ones I'm looking for. Still, this is evidence that Pacovf plays more by the calculations, which looks sort of bad for Jake.
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So, the quickhammer thing is now a real-ish thing.
One of LaLight/RR is scum. If Space is town and the other scum were Awaclus, the hammer would happen, almost surely.
So if Space is town, it has to be Jake and Pac.
Or, Space is scum. Then one of Jake and Pac are bussing, or Awaclus is scum.
Damn.
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You are misremembering how things went. I said I wanted to lynch from the VTs (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=16911.msg683132#msg683132) literally 30 seconds after the first person (you) said that they wanted to lynch Lalight. I don't make posts that fast.
Fair enough, but it's still the case that you were protecting LaLight by going for the VTs who have a lower chance of being scum overall.
BTW, I always make abstraction of my own alignment when doing simple probabilities. I find them to be more honest that way.
I would buy that from you, but not from Jake. And the fact that Jake did it later means that I'm not buying it from you either.
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So 50% chance to lynch scum in the Beetles, compared to 40% in the VTs. On the other hand, if we lynch Beetle, we insta-lose, while if we lynch the Moon King, we insta-win.
So it's better to lynch a VT. We can argue about Beetles tomorrow.
Here!
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So basically we're sitting at
{Awaclus, Space, X}
or
{Pacovf, Jake, X}
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And X is Lalight?
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It doesn't matter.
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So basically we're sitting at
{Awaclus, Space, X}
or
{Pacovf, Jake, X}
Pro tip: it's the lower one.
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It doesn't matter.
It does to me.
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Vote: Jake
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It doesn't matter.
It does to me. It's literally a free lunch.
I've never played with Pacovf (I think) so I'd rather lynch Jake, just in case.
PPE-Why is there a PPE from RR?
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Lynching Jake is super good. I think he might really be the Moon King.
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You are misremembering how things went. I said I wanted to lynch from the VTs (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=16911.msg683132#msg683132) literally 30 seconds after the first person (you) said that they wanted to lynch Lalight. I don't make posts that fast.
Fair enough, but it's still the case that you were protecting LaLight by going for the VTs who have a lower chance of being scum overall.
...how, exactly, am I supposed to be protecting someone before they are under attack? Besides, I have already given my reasoning for why lynching among the VTs is better today, and both WW and gkrieg agree with me, so you've got literally nothing here.
BTW, I always make abstraction of my own alignment when doing simple probabilities. I find them to be more honest that way.
I would buy that from you, but not from Jake. And the fact that Jake did it later means that I'm not buying it from you either.
Don't you have it backwards? If I understand you correctly, you are saying that Jake using probabilities goes against character, which means we discussed it in the scum QT. But if he did it after me, he could have just rehashed my posts. It's only if he had posted it before me that your argument holds water.
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Don't you have it backwards? If I understand you correctly, you are saying that Jake using probabilities goes against character, which means we discussed it in the scum QT. But if he did it after me, he could have just rehashed my posts. It's only if he had posted it before me that your argument holds water.
He could have, but I don't think he would have unless you were his partner.
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Well, apparently your thinking is wrong.
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Well, apparently your thinking is wrong.
I don't think it is.
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FYI, I am out for the evening. Back in the morning.
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Speaking of which, I will barely be available tomorrow before deadline, and if I understand correctly, if we don't reach a majority, we no-lynch, which doesn't sound like something we want.
You know, just in case you have a vote laying around doing nothing. As Awaclus helpfully pointed out, we need *all* townies to vote on scum to get a lynch through.
Unless scum busses, I guess.
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hell lotta happen and i need to go to sleep. To sum up
1) I think we should lynch RR, he may be Moon king because WIFOM and I am 100% sure he's scum.
2) His partners are Awaclus/Space/WW, some of those guys. If we choose from them, I am inclined to vote Awaclus
PS: this cool ploy would look really good for Calamitas, would he be here. But i don't underestimate Awaclus and RR, they definitely could come up with something like this.
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Why not Jake?
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Why not pacovf?
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:p
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I'm more or less caught up now. Glad I haven't come back into the game dead.
gkrieg, remember how you figured me as an easy mislynch to push when you were scum? And how you mislynched me one or more times as a VT? I'm sorry I seem to come out with stuff that makes people want to vote for me when I'm trying to be useful, but I don't seem to have the knack for not doing so yet. Also, how much of your suspicion on me is based on thinking WW isn't scummy, and using a process of elimination? And how many times has scum!WW pulled the wool over everyone's eyes and won while everyone thought he was towny?
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Ok hold up awaclus your case is bull I WANT TO LYNCH A BETTLE. I've never said otherwise.
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Wait why me? I jump of for a hour and all of a sudden I'm scum??? I say we lynch one of the beetles. I'm gonna break down some numbers on why. Ok if we lynch one of the bettles we have a 50% of hitting scum and a 50% chance of hitting town. If we lynch a vt we have a 40% chance of hitting scum and a 60% chance of hitting town making it more likely to hit town than the other option. Now someone may say that these are just vts at mylo but remember that the monkey has chosen to claim vt so at ethier choice we have the chance of losing a pr. This is why I like the idea of lynching one of the bettles today because the numbers favor our chance at hitting scum more with that option. Also we're at mylo so it doesn't matter what role we lynch. ( Come on let's be realistic that bettle only has a 20 or 16% chance of hitting scum tonight if we lynch wrong so therefore I say we go with the numbers) Also I think WW is the other town vt.
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Ok hold up awaclus your case is bull I WANT TO LYNCH A BETTLE. I've never said otherwise.
I noticed that earlier but chose to not point it out because it doesn't make that big of a difference. The key is that you're claiming that you have 40% odds of hitting scum if you lynch a VT, which is not true if you are a VT yourself as you claim to be, since they would be 50%, and that you're saying almost the exact same thing that pacovf was saying.
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Ok hold up awaclus your case is bull I WANT TO LYNCH A BETTLE. I've never said otherwise.
I noticed that earlier but chose to not point it out because it doesn't make that big of a difference. The key is that you're claiming that you have 40% odds of hitting scum if you lynch a VT, which is not true if you are a VT yourself as you claim to be, since they would be 50%, and that you're saying almost the exact same thing that pacovf was saying.
I was laying out the overall numbers for the town based off the number of people in the game not my pm or reads. Therefore there is 5vts, 2 are scum 2/5 is 40%
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Ok hold up awaclus your case is bull I WANT TO LYNCH A BETTLE. I've never said otherwise.
I noticed that earlier but chose to not point it out because it doesn't make that big of a difference. The key is that you're claiming that you have 40% odds of hitting scum if you lynch a VT, which is not true if you are a VT yourself as you claim to be, since they would be 50%, and that you're saying almost the exact same thing that pacovf was saying.
I was laying out the overall numbers for the town based off the number of people in the game not my pm or reads. Therefore there is 5vts, 2 are scum 2/5 is 40%
But why would you specifically have a preference towards lynching a Beetle since you know that the odds are 50% from your perspective either way?
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I'm more or less caught up now. Glad I haven't come back into the game dead.
gkrieg, remember how you figured me as an easy mislynch to push when you were scum? And how you mislynched me one or more times as a VT? I'm sorry I seem to come out with stuff that makes people want to vote for me when I'm trying to be useful, but I don't seem to have the knack for not doing so yet. Also, how much of your suspicion on me is based on thinking WW isn't scummy, and using a process of elimination? And how many times has scum!WW pulled the wool over everyone's eyes and won while everyone thought he was towny?
Are you trying to argue that I'm scum?
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I don't think WW is scum.
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Ok hold up awaclus your case is bull I WANT TO LYNCH A BETTLE. I've never said otherwise.
I noticed that earlier but chose to not point it out because it doesn't make that big of a difference. The key is that you're claiming that you have 40% odds of hitting scum if you lynch a VT, which is not true if you are a VT yourself as you claim to be, since they would be 50%, and that you're saying almost the exact same thing that pacovf was saying.
It doesn't make a big difference!! It's like half of your case that me and pacovf are scum buddies because we both tried to steer towards a vt lynch when we were going to "lynch LL"
There 50% but in terms of lynching. If we lynch a bettle then we have two choices whereas with a by lynching a by we have 5 choices. I would rather analyze two people rather than 5. Plus theirs a pretty majority consensus I think that LL is scum (which I do think). Also why are fighting when you want to lynch a bettle too.
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I'm more or less caught up now. Glad I haven't come back into the game dead.
gkrieg, remember how you figured me as an easy mislynch to push when you were scum? And how you mislynched me one or more times as a VT? I'm sorry I seem to come out with stuff that makes people want to vote for me when I'm trying to be useful, but I don't seem to have the knack for not doing so yet. Also, how much of your suspicion on me is based on thinking WW isn't scummy, and using a process of elimination? And how many times has scum!WW pulled the wool over everyone's eyes and won while everyone thought he was towny?
Are you trying to argue that I'm scum?
I think you're town too but I'm not totally sure yet
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Though if SA is town and WW is scum, I don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous. Unless he is playing the long game in a blitz game. So if WW is scum, so is SA. If WW is town, then it's either Awaclus and Jake or Awaclus and SA. On the other hand, I doubt LL or Jake are scum with SA, since both put a third vote on SA.
This is a totally flawed piece of analysis. I'm town, and I think there's every possibility that WW is scum. You seem to be totally letting him off the hook for something he didn't even really do, if the fact that you "don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous" is really your excuse.
I had WW, LL, and Jake on my wagon at post #223, when, as you say, it "starts getting dangerous".
At post #237, LL unvotes. If you're giving anyone towncred for leaving a hot wagon, it probably ought to be LL, not WW.
Then at post #241, WW left to vote instead for Jake, pretty much as soon as I'd stopped looking like such a likely a target for the mislynch.
Can't everyone else see how flimsy and useless an argument that is?
PPE 7-ish
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It doesn't make a big difference!! It's like half of your case that me and pacovf are scum buddies because we both tried to steer towards a vt lynch when we were going to "lynch LL"
There 50% but in terms of lynching. If we lynch a bettle then we have two choices whereas with a by lynching a by we have 5 choices. I would rather analyze two people rather than 5. Plus theirs a pretty majority consensus I think that LL is scum (which I do think). Also why are fighting when you want to lynch a bettle too.
98% of my case is that you said 40% instead of 50%.
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Though if SA is town and WW is scum, I don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous. Unless he is playing the long game in a blitz game. So if WW is scum, so is SA. If WW is town, then it's either Awaclus and Jake or Awaclus and SA. On the other hand, I doubt LL or Jake are scum with SA, since both put a third vote on SA.
This is a totally flawed piece of analysis. I'm town, and I think there's every possibility that WW is scum. You seem to be totally letting him off the hook for something he didn't even really do, if the fact that you "don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous" is really your excuse.
I had WW, LL, and Jake on my wagon at post #223, when, as you say, it "starts getting dangerous".
At post #237, LL unvotes. If you're giving anyone towncred for leaving a hot wagon, it probably ought to be LL, not WW.
Then at post #241, WW left to vote instead for Jake, pretty much as soon as I'd stopped looking like such a likely a target for the mislynch.
Can't everyone else see how flimsy and useless an argument that is?
PPE 7-ish
Having LL and Jake on your wagon isn't dangerous because they're both scum.
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Can everyone say which of LL/RR they think is lying?
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Can everyone say which of LL/RR they think is lying?
LL is lying.
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I'm more or less caught up now. Glad I haven't come back into the game dead.
gkrieg, remember how you figured me as an easy mislynch to push when you were scum? And how you mislynched me one or more times as a VT? I'm sorry I seem to come out with stuff that makes people want to vote for me when I'm trying to be useful, but I don't seem to have the knack for not doing so yet. Also, how much of your suspicion on me is based on thinking WW isn't scummy, and using a process of elimination? And how many times has scum!WW pulled the wool over everyone's eyes and won while everyone thought he was towny?
Are you trying to argue that I'm scum?
If one of the two of us has to be scum, then obviously it has to be you, from my perspective. I can't argue it exactly, because I don't have a strong case that doesn't rely on subjective information. What I'm trying to do is remind gkrieg to take into account the fact that he'll be playing into scum's hands if he scumreads me simply because you're being generally townread.
It's probably worse if you are town, really -- when I flip town, the only rescue for town comes from a correct RB at night, and then in N2, they'd have to pick between you (assuming they still believe that one of the two of us has to be scum), or an actual scum.
From my perspective, exactly one of {LL,RR} is scum, and then exactly two of {WW, Paco, Awa, Jake} are scum. I think Awaclus's actions are the most towny, and I'd had a reasonable townread on Paco... his recent argument fail runs against that, but then it runs against that precisely in your favour, which is at best confusing if you're really not scum. Jake is the person I'm most confident is scum, especially given Awaclus's recent case, which I totally agree with.
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Can everyone say which of LL/RR they think is lying?
LL is a scummy person
-
Can everyone say which of LL/RR they think is lying?
LL is lying.
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Can everyone say which of LL/RR they think is lying?
I've just re-read them both, and I'm still not sure :-( I'm leaning towards LL lying simply because RR was on the verge of looking like an IC before he counterclaimed LL. I'm not sure how we'd have collectively reacted if RR had allowed everyone to assume he was Monkey.. when one of the claimed VTs turned around and tried to counterclaim Monkey, that would have been distinctly awkward fro the person who's already lied once.
The other thing in RR's favour is the QTs issue. He was pretty clear about not having a QT early on, and it was clearly something on his mind, which makes more sense if he's a PR with no QT, rather than just a VT with no QT, which seems normal enough to me. I'd accidentally read him earlier as being slightly anti-town in his assertion of Awaclus's townslip, in that I'd assumed that the targeting town PR would have a QT, because that's what's happened in the vast majority of games I've played in... so in claiming no-QT, I thought RR was inadvertently also claiming non-PR, which didn't seem completely pro-town.
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Though if SA is town and WW is scum, I don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous. Unless he is playing the long game in a blitz game. So if WW is scum, so is SA. If WW is town, then it's either Awaclus and Jake or Awaclus and SA. On the other hand, I doubt LL or Jake are scum with SA, since both put a third vote on SA.
This is a totally flawed piece of analysis. I'm town, and I think there's every possibility that WW is scum. You seem to be totally letting him off the hook for something he didn't even really do, if the fact that you "don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous" is really your excuse.
I had WW, LL, and Jake on my wagon at post #223, when, as you say, it "starts getting dangerous".
At post #237, LL unvotes. If you're giving anyone towncred for leaving a hot wagon, it probably ought to be LL, not WW.
Then at post #241, WW left to vote instead for Jake, pretty much as soon as I'd stopped looking like such a likely a target for the mislynch.
Can't everyone else see how flimsy and useless an argument that is?
PPE 7-ish
Oh, mostly I have a very hard time seeing both you and WW being scum at the same time, and from there it's just process of elimination. Look at it this way, if WW is scum, why isn't he quickhammering you with one of {LL,RR} ?
@gkrieg: I don't have a strong preference between {LL,RR}, both have been scummy in different ways, and I would rather wait for a flip before choosing. If I had to give an answer now, I guess I would say RR is a bit scummier.
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RR was on the verge of looking like an IC before he counterclaimed
Really?
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Oh, mostly I have a very hard time seeing both you and WW being scum at the same time, and from there it's just process of elimination. Look at it this way, if WW is scum, why isn't he quickhammering you with one of {LL,RR} ?
Well, by that logic, you and Jake have to be the two VT-claimed scums. I think it's pretty likely, but I also think that there's a non-zero chance of it being only one of you, and the other scum (which would have to be WW or Awaclus) realising that you might have a better chance of willing if you don't expose yourselves enough to give the real Beetle a high enough chance of blocking you.
Anyway, either way I find that your lack of precision with the facts feels a lot more like scum trying to twist a set of occurrences into their chosen narrative than town trying to infer a game state based on facts.
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RR was on the verge of looking like an IC before he counterclaimed
Really?
Yes! Here's post #321, where Awaclus inferred that you're an IC, since at that point you were one of the three people who had not positively claimed to be a VT:
There's 2 VT in the setup.
And 5 VTs claimed, which means 3 of them are scum. And the 3 people who didn't claim VT are ICs.
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I'm more or less caught up now. Glad I haven't come back into the game dead.
gkrieg, remember how you figured me as an easy mislynch to push when you were scum? And how you mislynched me one or more times as a VT? I'm sorry I seem to come out with stuff that makes people want to vote for me when I'm trying to be useful, but I don't seem to have the knack for not doing so yet. Also, how much of your suspicion on me is based on thinking WW isn't scummy, and using a process of elimination? And how many times has scum!WW pulled the wool over everyone's eyes and won while everyone thought he was towny?
Are you trying to argue that I'm scum?
If one of the two of us has to be scum, then obviously it has to be you, from my perspective. I can't argue it exactly, because I don't have a strong case that doesn't rely on subjective information. What I'm trying to do is remind gkrieg to take into account the fact that he'll be playing into scum's hands if he scumreads me simply because you're being generally townread.
It's probably worse if you are town, really -- when I flip town, the only rescue for town comes from a correct RB at night, and then in N2, they'd have to pick between you (assuming they still believe that one of the two of us has to be scum), or an actual scum.
From my perspective, exactly one of {LL,RR} is scum, and then exactly two of {WW, Paco, Awa, Jake} are scum. I think Awaclus's actions are the most towny, and I'd had a reasonable townread on Paco... his recent argument fail runs against that, but then it runs against that precisely in your favour, which is at best confusing if you're really not scum. Jake is the person I'm most confident is scum, especially given Awaclus's recent case, which I totally agree with.
Play this scenario. You are town. RR/LaLight has a scum, they've been on all day. I've been on all day. You are at L-2.
How are you not dead?
I should be conftown to you.
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Oh, mostly I have a very hard time seeing both you and WW being scum at the same time, and from there it's just process of elimination. Look at it this way, if WW is scum, why isn't he quickhammering you with one of {LL,RR} ?
Well, by that logic, you and Jake have to be the two VT-claimed scums. I think it's pretty likely, but I also think that there's a non-zero chance of it being only one of you, and the other scum (which would have to be WW or Awaclus) realising that you might have a better chance of willing if you don't expose yourselves enough to give the real Beetle a high enough chance of blocking you.
Anyway, either way I find that your lack of precision with the facts feels a lot more like scum trying to twist a set of occurrences into their chosen narrative than town trying to infer a game state based on facts.
Okay, so it's been said. Town!You should be convinced it's Jake/Pac. It doesn't even matter who from LL/RR is scum.
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On RR/LL I'm still leaning towards town!LL and scum!RR, but much less than initially.
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If WW is scum we're screwed. I suppose I would be open to lynching Jake today. Out of Jake/Pacovf, I think he's slightly more likely. In a perfect world, we lynch LaLight today and Jake tomorrow, but if we flip flop that I guess I can live with it.
Look at how agreeable I am! Isn't that towny! ;)
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I like RR's idea of lynching LL
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Oh, mostly I have a very hard time seeing both you and WW being scum at the same time, and from there it's just process of elimination. Look at it this way, if WW is scum, why isn't he quickhammering you with one of {LL,RR} ?
Well, by that logic, you and Jake have to be the two VT-claimed scums. I think it's pretty likely, but I also think that there's a non-zero chance of it being only one of you, and the other scum (which would have to be WW or Awaclus) realising that you might have a better chance of willing if you don't expose yourselves enough to give the real Beetle a high enough chance of blocking you.
Anyway, either way I find that your lack of precision with the facts feels a lot more like scum trying to twist a set of occurrences into their chosen narrative than town trying to infer a game state based on facts.
I mean, I can describe all the possible scenarios in detail, and in fact I did it (partially, I just gave the idea behind the reasoning and some possible scenarios) a few pages ago. But it's pointless, because as you figured out by yourself, town!SA necessarily has to conclude that I am scum, and similarly, I conclude that you are scum. We can't possibly convince each other, so, what do you want me to do... Writing clear, detailed posts takes time, and I just don't see the use here.
There are marginal, somewhat contrived scenarios in which we are both town, but eh, do you really want me to go over them?
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Oh, mostly I have a very hard time seeing both you and WW being scum at the same time, and from there it's just process of elimination. Look at it this way, if WW is scum, why isn't he quickhammering you with one of {LL,RR} ?
Well, by that logic, you and Jake have to be the two VT-claimed scums. I think it's pretty likely, but I also think that there's a non-zero chance of it being only one of you, and the other scum (which would have to be WW or Awaclus) realising that you might have a better chance of willing if you don't expose yourselves enough to give the real Beetle a high enough chance of blocking you.
Anyway, either way I find that your lack of precision with the facts feels a lot more like scum trying to twist a set of occurrences into their chosen narrative than town trying to infer a game state based on facts.
Okay, so it's been said. Town!You should be convinced it's Jake/Pac. It doesn't even matter who from LL/RR is scum.
Sure, I'm like 80% sure it's Jake/Paco. My hesitation comes from the fact I've been played before by the "people should have been hammered by now" trick -- check out what Robz and Calamitas set up in M88 (Covert Affairs). LL, RR and Jake were also playing in that game, and gkreig was the mod, so at least two other townies should understand where I'm coming from.
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Oh, mostly I have a very hard time seeing both you and WW being scum at the same time, and from there it's just process of elimination. Look at it this way, if WW is scum, why isn't he quickhammering you with one of {LL,RR} ?
Well, by that logic, you and Jake have to be the two VT-claimed scums. I think it's pretty likely, but I also think that there's a non-zero chance of it being only one of you, and the other scum (which would have to be WW or Awaclus) realising that you might have a better chance of willing if you don't expose yourselves enough to give the real Beetle a high enough chance of blocking you.
Anyway, either way I find that your lack of precision with the facts feels a lot more like scum trying to twist a set of occurrences into their chosen narrative than town trying to infer a game state based on facts.
Okay, so it's been said. Town!You should be convinced it's Jake/Pac. It doesn't even matter who from LL/RR is scum.
Sure, I'm like 80% sure it's Jake/Paco. My hesitation comes from the fact I've been played before by the "people should have been hammered by now" trick -- check out what Robz and Calamitas set up in M88 (Covert Affairs). LL, RR and Jake were also playing in that game, and gkreig was the mod, so at least two other townies should understand where I'm coming from.
I actually don't remember because I was mislynched D-1 in that game like what's probably gonna happen here. That was a town loss like this will be if I get lynched
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#When you try that sweet, sweet appeal to emotion.
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#When you try that sweet, sweet appeal to emotion.
#when nobody believes you until the flip comes out and then they all cry cause they lost
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Well, by that logic, you and Jake have to be the two VT-claimed scums. I think it's pretty likely, but I also think that there's a non-zero chance of it being only one of you, and the other scum (which would have to be WW or Awaclus) realising that you might have a better chance of willing if you don't expose yourselves enough to give the real Beetle a high enough chance of blocking you.
Anyway, either way I find that your lack of precision with the facts feels a lot more like scum trying to twist a set of occurrences into their chosen narrative than town trying to infer a game state based on facts.
I mean, I can describe all the possible scenarios in detail, and in fact I did it (partially, I just gave the idea behind the reasoning and some possible scenarios) a few pages ago. But it's pointless, because as you figured out by yourself, town!SA necessarily has to conclude that I am scum, and similarly, I conclude that you are scum. We can't possibly convince each other, so, what do you want me to do... Writing clear, detailed posts takes time, and I just don't see the use here.
There are marginal, somewhat contrived scenarios in which we are both town, but eh, do you really want me to go over them?
What I called you out for is pushing an argument that was based on provably incorrect facts about WW's voting history in order to make me out to be likely scum. I think that in itself is a sign that you are scummy, because you're twisting facts to fit a narrative, not building conclusions based on facts. Now, to me you might be conf!scum from your voting patterns (modulo aforementioned marginal cases). However, that inference requires certainty that I'm a VT, which I can't exactly transmit to the rest of town. Therefore I need to show them some other, more easily verifiable actions that make you look scummy.. I'm not trying to convince you of anything; I'm trying to make gkrieg and the others take a more careful look at what you're saying.
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Argh.. how is it 01:30 already? Have to be asleep. G'night all.
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What I called you out for is pushing an argument that was based on provably incorrect facts about WW's voting history in order to make me out to be likely scum.
Wait, what are those incorrect facts? I have a feeling there is just a misunderstanding about something I said, but I take these accusations seriously.
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Though if SA is town and WW is scum, I don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous. Unless he is playing the long game in a blitz game. So if WW is scum, so is SA. If WW is town, then it's either Awaclus and Jake or Awaclus and SA. On the other hand, I doubt LL or Jake are scum with SA, since both put a third vote on SA.
This is a totally flawed piece of analysis. I'm town, and I think there's every possibility that WW is scum. You seem to be totally letting him off the hook for something he didn't even really do, if the fact that you "don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous" is really your excuse.
I had WW, LL, and Jake on my wagon at post #223, when, as you say, it "starts getting dangerous".
At post #237, LL unvotes. If you're giving anyone towncred for leaving a hot wagon, it probably ought to be LL, not WW.
Then at post #241, WW left to vote instead for Jake, pretty much as soon as I'd stopped looking like such a likely a target for the mislynch.
Can't everyone else see how flimsy and useless an argument that is?
PPE 7-ish
Ok, I owe you an apology. In my reread, I completely missed that Lalight unvoted in 237, and I did not pay enough attention to your post here this afternoon (I had my head elsewhere).
I guess I need to reevaluate the possible scum teams, with the consideration that, in fact, WW can be scum if SA is town. Which, as far as I can see, gives the scum team WW, Jake, LL/RR... (WW, Awaclus, LL/RR is too ridiculous to contemplate, IMHO) But then again, why don't they quickhammer? So it doesn't change my final conclusion. At this point, either scum is being rude and toying with us, or you have to be scum. I guess it could also be overly cautious scum, but maaaaaan if it's that just get it over with.
Ugh, this game has taught me to dislike MYLO even more than I already did. I wish it weren't possible to quickhammer, or that we didn't need to have all town on board of a lynch to get it through. Or both.
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From about 10:30 PM forum time to maybe 5 AM forum times is super slow.
I'm going to bed in a few minutes.
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I'll make my choice in the morning. I'll try to do it before 11/11:30 AM.
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I should be awake for deadline
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Vote Count 1.10:
LaLight (1): RR
SA (3): Jake, Pacovf, gkrieg13
WW (1): SA
RR (1): LaLight
Jake (1): Awaclus
Not Voting (1): WW
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.
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The vote count looks super bad. Haven't all townies already pretty much concluded that Jake is scum, why am I the only one voting for him?
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The vote count looks super bad. Haven't all townies already pretty much concluded that Jake is scum, why am I the only one voting for him?
From my pov, Paco and his buddying of WW were being a distraction. I can sort of see it being Paco-WW rather than Paco-Jake. I mean, yes, if it's Paco-WW then WW-plus-X could have hammered me by now, but then if it's not WW, a scum-team of Paco-Jake-X could have hammered me earlier when I had WW and gkrieg on my tail. So scum have definitely been toying with us, but it's not altogether clear whether they were doing it before, or now, or both.
I need to go back and take a look at all the other wagons, since the only ones that stick in my head right now are the ones that were on me. I'll go and do that soon, though I should really stop being half asleep and get myself to the office first. Stupid lack of sleep...
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Vote Count 1.7:
LaLight (2): gkrieg13, Awaclus
SA (1): Jake
WW (1): SA
Jake (1): Pacovf
RR (1): LaLight
Not Voting (2): RR, WW
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.
Where did Paco's vote for Jake come from here? It's very handy that he seems to be voting for his most likely scum-buddy, but I can't actually see him laying down the vote anywhere. Can anyone else see where this came from?
(Mostly just pointing this out so that a possibly-wrong vote count can't be used in evidence for the everyone-wants-to-vote-for-Jake argument, in case that becomes relevant).
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The vote count looks super bad. Haven't all townies already pretty much concluded that Jake is scum, why am I the only one voting for him?
From my pov, Paco and his buddying of WW were being a distraction. I can sort of see it being Paco-WW rather than Paco-Jake.
I can't really see WW being scum.
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Okay, so the other wagons are mostly on LL, being voted for by Awaclus, gkrieg and then also RR. The only other one who gets multiple votes is WW, with both me and Paco voting for him at one point.
That's actually kind of depressing for me. Awaclus and RR are the only two who haven't been on a multi-person wagon while voting for me. I have no strong explanation as to why the scum-team didn't just hammer me when it was either {WW, LL, Jake}, or now when it's {Jake, Paco, gkreig}, other than that they want to keep hidden while turning me into an obvious mislynch target, in order to maximise their chance of winning N1.
As for what this says about scum, I think LL is probably more aware of how many mislynches I've had than anyone else (except maybe gkreig!). Of the two main distinct wagons on me, I think the earlier wagon (with WW and gkreig) is less likely to be the one where scum's deliberately skipping the qh opportunity, because they would still have had reason to hang on and see whether they could out our PRs at that earlier stage of the game.
In terms of the claimed-VTs, I still feel most suspicious about Paco's recent play, so I feel like he's a better lynch. Granted, his play could just be designed to draw heat off Jake-the-Moon-King, but also I think there's still an outside chance of WW being his partner instead of Jake.
vote: Paco for now. I'm happy to move to Jake for town consensus later if nobody else is as worried over Paco as I am.
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The vote count looks super bad. Haven't all townies already pretty much concluded that Jake is scum, why am I the only one voting for him?
From my pov, Paco and his buddying of WW were being a distraction. I can sort of see it being Paco-WW rather than Paco-Jake.
I can't really see WW being scum.
Some of my suspicion on him is likely due to omgus because of how much he went after me early on, combined with paranoia about how he's really good at appearing towny as a scum. (The post I made above, where I figure that he's more likely to be non-scum than the people voting for me later, was made before I'd read your PPE).
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I have no strong explanation as to why the scum-team didn't just hammer me when it was either {WW, LL, Jake}, or now when it's {Jake, Paco, gkreig}
I do! Both of those sets contain two people from the scum team (LL+Jake in first set, Jake+Paco in second set), so it was never possible for scum to hammer you.
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Vote: Paco
I have something I'll share later
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Vote: Paco
I have something I'll share later
There isn't a whole lot of later. What's your reason for delaying?
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Vote: Paco
I have something I'll share later
There isn't a whole lot of later. What's your reason for delaying?
Never mind.
How confident are you that WW is town?
And WW, how confident are you that SA is town?
I wanted to vote for Paco and I still did, but SA's vote is making me question myself.
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How confident are you that WW is town?
Not ultra-confident, but I trust that Awaclus is town, so I'm borrowing extra confidence from him. WW's play has been definitely too hostile/aggressive for my liking, which I feel is a tactic for pushing people to agree with you when your cases aren't strong enough to carry things through on their own.
Reading independently, without taking Awaclus into account, I'd put maybe
Paco-Jake: 70%
Paco-WW: 20%
WW-Jake: 10%
(Though unfortunately those particular numbers don't have anything solid and computable behind them).
I wanted to vote for Paco and I still did, but SA's vote is making me question myself.
Ask yourself what I've actually done to draw suspicion other than be at the blunt end of some scum-forced wifom around voting patterns, and a bunch of assertions from WW/Paco that I must be part of whatever scum team they want to throw out there.
The only thing I can see is the QT issue that you asserted that I hadn't spotted, when in fact it wasn't something I missed at all -- I thought you were being anti-town in trying to out yourself or Awaclus as a VT (reducing scum's possible PR-pool) at the time. The fact that both you and LL have now said that even Beetle doesn't have a QT shows that whichever one of you it was, I was wrong about my assumption that a targeting PR would necessarily have a QT... please don't let my mistake there colour your judgement because you will have known all along that even Beetle didn't have one, and you might not have thought that VTs would assume otherwise.
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FWIW, I've definitely PM'd night actions to ashersky in games modded by him before, so I assumed that he'd do the same here.
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I'm fine with lynching pacovf but I would much rather lynch LL because I'm pretty sure he's the moon king which would mean instant win for us.
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I'm fine with lynching pacovf but I would much rather lynch LL because I'm pretty sure he's the moon king which would mean instant win for us.
Why would you even think that?
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I'm fine with lynching pacovf but I would much rather lynch LL because I'm pretty sure he's the moon king which would mean instant win for us.
Why would you even think that?
Because he's scum.
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I'm fine with lynching pacovf but I would much rather lynch LL because I'm pretty sure he's the moon king which would mean instant win for us.
Why would you even think that?
Because he's scum.
Yeah, and possibly he's saying it now because Paco isn't currently online to counsel him to do otherwise? It's certainly a very "Jake" thing to say, whereas for most of this game, he's been very reserved.
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I'm fine with lynching pacovf but I would much rather lynch LL because I'm pretty sure he's the moon king which would mean instant win for us.
Why would you even think that?
Because if I was scum ( I'm not) then I would want to claim beetle as the moon king because people would not want to lynch the one shot they have of preventing a loss if they mislynch.
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I'm fine with lynching pacovf but I would much rather lynch LL because I'm pretty sure he's the moon king which would mean instant win for us.
Why would you even think that?
Because he's scum.
Yeah, and possibly he's saying it now because Paco isn't currently online to counsel him to do otherwise? It's certainly a very "Jake" thing to say, whereas for most of this game, he's been very reserved.
Or I could be trying to improve my town game because what I was doing before wasn't working.
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Vote Count 1.11:
SA (3): Jake, Pacovf, gkrieg13
RR (1): LaLight
Jake (1): Awaclus
Pacovf (2): SA, RR
Not Voting (1): WW
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.
That's in less than 3 hours.
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Vote:LL
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I also dislike the idea of lynching LL because just by a numbers perspective he's been scum a lot recently (M94 etc) and I doubt that he can be scum so many games in a row.
This is absolute rubbish as a line of reasoning! Unless Ash assigned roles using people's recent roles as some kind of input (which I assume we're pretty much guaranteed that he didn't do), then the chance of anyone here being scum is equal, regardless of how much or how little they've been scum in other games.
Yeah good point but I think LL has played differently than previous games (M94) where he was scum.
How did LL play differently in previous games?
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I'm fine with lynching pacovf but I would much rather lynch LL because I'm pretty sure he's the moon king which would mean instant win for us.
Why would you even think that?
Because if I was scum ( I'm not) then I would want to claim beetle as the moon king because people would not want to lynch the one shot they have of preventing a loss if they mislynch.
Have you ever been in a one-on-one claim situation as scum?
Have you ever witnessed one that did *not* result in one of the claimants getting lynched?
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Posting stuff as I see them.
Vote: LaLight
I'm like 50% sure he's scum.
Bad
Man, I'm super towny. Even in my first couple of posts, you can clearly see that I'm town because I'm thinking from a town perspective.
Worse
Yeah, I think the 50% thing is a little bit towny at least. It's probably not super-hard for scum to work it out, but coming from Awaclus, I lean infinitesimally towards town.
Very bad. Are you guys trying to get lynched?
vote: space
Vote: Space
I think you are confusing this for a bastard game.
Weird. Notable an that if one of them are scum, surely both are.
Oh, I remember now I voted Space for coming in and not doing anything---specifically, not voting. I like this, but it doesn't apply as well to Space, since Space is a cautious town player.
What the hell? Fo you understand that one mislynch and we lose?!
LaLight's first thing. Scum 100% thought about Day 1 quicklynches for the win, that's why I wasn't too thrilled with this opening. On the other hand, it's believable that town!LaLight thinks about things this way.
Flurry of nervous posts insisting that we unvote follows. We don't.
Yeah like fake vote in italics don't actually vote because we're at mylo
First thing Jake says. Also scummy.
So Space, Jake, Awaclus? Could be.
It can't be :(
Yeah, I think the 50% thing is a little bit towny at least. It's probably not super-hard for scum to work it out, but coming from Awaclus, I lean infinitesimally towards town.
50%?
It's 50/50 for any townie other than gkrieg as to the alignment of other players... and I'd imagine that's easier for a townie to spot than for a scum. It wouldn't surprise me coming from someone like Calamitas in either alignment, but from Awaclus it feels a bit townie.
This actually makes their partnership less likely. It's a bad enough argument that you don't want to make it to argue for your partner's towniness.
If you want to think about it in the meantime, I already figured out that scum would claim 1 VT and counterclaim both PRs for sure, so you can use that as a starting point.
Awaclus discusses massclaim possibility. Generally town proposes these kind of plans more than scum. There is, of course, the possibility of scum planning, where Awaclus proposes massclaim, proposes how scum would react, and they do something different to make him look more town.
Also:
Yeah, I think the 50% thing is a little bit towny at least. It's probably not super-hard for scum to work it out, but coming from Awaclus, I lean infinitesimally towards town.
50%?
It's 50/50 for any townie other than gkrieg as to the alignment of other players... and I'd imagine that's easier for a townie to spot than for a scum. It wouldn't surprise me coming from someone like Calamitas in either alignment, but from Awaclus it feels a bit townie.
Isn't that also something that scum could talk about in their QT beforehand anyway, which makes it more likely to come from scum?
Yeah, but I'm not scum so I don't have a QT.
Not a townslip. It's an Awaclian thing to say, as either alignment. RR looks a little bad for such confident insistence that it's a slip.
So Space, Jake, Awaclus? Could be.
Or Space/WW/Pacovf?
I mean by your logic we would have just hammered Awaclus.
No? You were L-3, Paco L-2
So then what are you so worried about?
Because now you and IC vote for the same person. Either you're scum, or SA is scum or there can be a quickhammer, that's what.
Hmm.. even knowing I'm town, I don't feel terribly confident in WW's guilt just because there's no quickhammer. There's a decent chance of the NK not happening (we have an RB), and at that point, we have a strong idea of who the scums are. If we correctly lynch the Moon King, we win.
Hedgy and unhelpful, with an extra sprinkle of "hey guys I'm town" thrown in.
Yeah, I think the 50% thing is a little bit towny at least. It's probably not super-hard for scum to work it out, but coming from Awaclus, I lean infinitesimally towards town.
50%?
It's 50/50 for any townie other than gkrieg as to the alignment of other players... and I'd imagine that's easier for a townie to spot than for a scum. It wouldn't surprise me coming from someone like Calamitas in either alignment, but from Awaclus it feels a bit townie.
Isn't that also something that scum could talk about in their QT beforehand anyway, which makes it more likely to come from scum?
Ah, re-reading the set-up, scum has daychat, so that's worth considering both from the quickhammer angle and from the point of view of them making coordinated arguments.
Add on a helpful filling of "I'm not scum because I just got this from reading the setup and not by using said daychat because I'm scum".
Ok, let's just conclude the setup discussion and go back to scumhunting:
-if we mislynch, then either Beetle roleblocks the nightkill (~20% chance) or we lose.
-if we lynch correctly, then either we win outright (33%) or we have to find another scum tomorrow. If we don't, we lose, unless Beetle roleblocks the kill either night (~50%).
-scum has daychat and can coordinate quickhammers.
tl;dr let's lynch scum today please.
Flash townread
towny-ish?SA, Awaclus
scummy: Lalight, WW
null (not enough content): RR, Jake
Pacovf has been gone for a while, comes back with a much-balanced reads list. Noteworthy that scum!Pac has to be partners with scum!Jake, and Jake is null here. Good chance LaLight is scum if Pac is, otherwise he listed his team together in null.
Yeah sorry but I think that RR may be scum here. I also dislike the idea of lynching LL because just by a numbers perspective he's been scum a lot recently (M94 etc) and I doubt that he can be scum so many games in a row.
I think this is Jake's first thing this game, and boy is it stupid.
(*checked; not his first thing, he said one thing I had pointed out above)
Ok, let's just conclude the setup discussion and go back to scumhunting:
-if we mislynch, then either Beetle roleblocks the nightkill (~20% chance) or we lose.
-if we lynch correctly, then either we win outright (33%) or we have to find another scum tomorrow. If we don't, we lose, unless Beetle roleblocks the kill either night (~50%).
-scum has daychat and can coordinate quickhammers.
tl;dr let's lynch scum today please.
Flash townread
towny-ish?SA, Awaclus
scummy: Lalight, WW
null (not enough content): RR, Jake
I sorta agree with this but awaclus seems different this game. He's not being as annoying and he's actually explaining things (sorta). It feels like he is trying to be more towny this game which for me is a bit off so slight scum read on awaclus
Well this is more redeeming; not a bad way to think about Awaclus.
Morning all.
vote: WW
The no-hammer argument grew on me with time.
Generally bad, played around a lot with "WW could be scummy", finally votes with appeal to previous deliberation. Pac had just voted: one scum and one town there; is scum more likely to initiate or to get on second?
Some more discussion and explanation of the quickhammer argument follows.
Submitting this post, continuing to read.
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I doubt I will be able to log in again today, so this is my last post before deadline.
Yes, the strongest argument behind SA's wagon is just the fact that they haven't been lynched yet. Sorry, SA, it sucks to be lynched over no fault of your own, but that's the only solid evidence we have right now, everything else can be faked as scum (you could argue it's scum toying with us, but then we should have lost already anyway, so meh), so that's why it's such a compelling argument. For what it's worth, I don't like this type of scumhunting either, I find it boring, but that's how the game has evolved.
That being said, the fact that SA, Awaclus and RR are suddenly switching gears and targetting me now that the deadline is so close should make everyone else feel better about an SA lynch. WW, LL, we need your vote now.
PPE 4: phone posting, have to leave now.
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There is a chance my argument regarding hammering and {Space, Awaclus} vs. {Pac, Jake} is wrong. It would involve unavailability of the two remaining scum to secure the hammer, which is possible as LaLight is in different time zones than most of us (though so is Space and Pac), and RR is sometimes mobile or otherwise online but not posting.
Let me recheck. We have been sitting on
Space: Jake, Pac, Gkrieg
for quite some time. If Space is town, a team of {Awaclus, X, RR/LL} could jump on the Space wagon and hammer for any X, as long as they're both online. Awaclus is always very active, LL active enough, RR may be harder to coordinate, but I still believe like it would have been done.
So, if Space is town, both scum are on wagon, and it has to be {Jake, Pac}.
If Awaclus is scum, then town!Space would be hammered by above, so Space must also be scum. So {Space, Awaclus} can happen.
Is {Space, Jake/Pac} not possible? I seemed to think so before. It would mean Jake/Pac is bussing, but that's not impossible.
So that's not so good, it means we have one of:
{Jake, Pac}
{Awaclus, Space}
{Jake, Space}
{Pac, Space}
which invalidates some of much assumptions before.
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Oh, I just realized, outing Beetle did not allow scum the guarantee kill from quickhammer. Beetle blocks, so nothing can prevent him from correctly targetting the scum killer.
So actually the entire argument is a little bit bad.
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So, if Space is town, both scum are on wagon, and it has to be {Jake, Pac}.
I'm telling you, that is the case.
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Well, one person left to claim, one PR left to claim. That's... rather unexpected, but ok.
Cool. Vote: pacovf
I'm tentatively inclined to say that it's pacovf/WW/Jake.
Oh, we are lynching now? What's the reasoning?
Why unexpected? Did you have some previous assumption about RR's role?
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So, if Space is town, both scum are on wagon, and it has to be {Jake, Pac}.
I'm telling you, that is the case.
Why not Pac then? He's closer to a lynch.
Also, how do you know this?
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You feel however you want as long as you lynch LaLight.
Walk me through your last ~15 minutes please.
Got to class, saw we had a sub, hopped on the forum, saw a fake claim, skimmed everything else
Did you respond to LaLight immediately after you saw his claim?
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You feel however you want as long as you lynch LaLight.
Walk me through your last ~15 minutes please.
Got to class, saw we had a sub, hopped on the forum, saw a fake claim, skimmed everything else
Did you respond to LaLight immediately after you saw his claim?
No, like it says, I skimmed everything else
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I'm fine with lynching pacovf but I would much rather lynch LL because I'm pretty sure he's the moon king which would mean instant win for us.
He'd rather lynch LaLight because the scum team is Pacovf/LL/Jake and he'd prefer to out as few scum people as he can.
I now think Jake is the moon king.
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I'm fine with lynching pacovf but I would much rather lynch LL because I'm pretty sure he's the moon king which would mean instant win for us.
He'd rather lynch LaLight because the scum team is Pacovf/LL/Jake and he'd prefer to out as few scum people as he can.
I now think Jake is the moon king.
And yet you're not voting Jake...
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I'm fine with lynching pacovf but I would much rather lynch LL because I'm pretty sure he's the moon king which would mean instant win for us.
He'd rather lynch LaLight because the scum team is Pacovf/LL/Jake and he'd prefer to out as few scum people as he can.
I now think Jake is the moon king.
And yet you're not voting Jake...
I'll switch if I think he's more likely.
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So, if Space is town, both scum are on wagon, and it has to be {Jake, Pac}.
I'm telling you, that is the case.
Why not Pac then? He's closer to a lynch.
Also, how do you know this?
Sure, Pac is fine. Vote: pacovf I guess I had somehow convinced myself that Jake is the Moon King, but I don't know that for sure.
And the reason why I know this is that I know I'm town, I'm pretty sure you're town, and Jake/pacovf makes so much more sense than any other possible combination, besides I kind of think Space is town too.
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I'm fine with lynching pacovf but I would much rather lynch LL because I'm pretty sure he's the moon king which would mean instant win for us.
He'd rather lynch LaLight because the scum team is Pacovf/LL/Jake and he'd prefer to out as few scum people as he can.
I now think Jake is the moon king.
Or I would like to win the game straight away so we don't have to take the chance of losing tomorrow. Plus My strongest scum read is on LL so I obviously want to lynch LL.
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Voting histories:
Pac: Awaclus, LaLight, Me, Me, Space
Jake: Space, LL
Space: Me, Pac,
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I'd actually rather lynch Jake than Pac.
I'm no longer convinced of my partnership argument relying on quickhammering from before.
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Though {Jake, Pac} is still a more likely scenario than {Jake, Space}.
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Either of Jake or Pac is fine.
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Vote: Jake
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Btw what's really convenient in a Blitz game is turning on email notifications for the thread, that way you can get a notification in your smartphone every time someone posts.
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I thin it's {Pac, Space or Awaclus} It doesn't look like LL is going to happen so i'll Vote: Pacovf
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I thin it's {Pac, Space or Awaclus} It doesn't look like LL is going to happen so i'll Vote: Pacovf
That's really nice of you.
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There is WIFOM there, but this makes King!Jake more likely in a team of {Jake, Pac}. (Not taking into account that King is in LL/RR.)
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Eh, screw it, I'm set on Jake/Pac. If it's a loss it's a loss. It's basically a 1-day game, at some point we'll have to roll the dice.
Would prefer Jake first.
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Fine I'm Monkey. I wan't going to fully claim until tomorrow so I don't get night killed which is why I claimed VT. That said don't have a preference on who we lynch as longs as it's between LL (preferably) or pacovf who are my two strongest scum reads.
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Waiting for a counterclaim...
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Fine I'm Monkey. I wan't going to fully claim until tomorrow so I don't get night killed which is why I claimed VT. That said don't have a preference on who we lynch as longs as it's between LL (preferably) or pacovf who are my two strongest scum reads.
No you're not.
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Waiting for a counterclaim...
20$ on me getting counterclaimed by scum and us losing.
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I hope Awaclus is town because this would be an actual, real-life example of Awaclus playing a sensible and helpful town game. It actually does make him seem scummier, but it's not worth going down that path.
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Vote: Paco
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I'm dead either way as I'm basically conftown.
I'm monkey, kill Jake.
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RR Jake is scum.
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Being right feels good!
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I'm monkey
I knew that, you kind of outed yourself when you said you wanted to hear from RR when he was the only one who hadn't claimed yet.
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RR and Jake are scum.
RR, believe me when I tell you Jake is scum.
Which one do you mean?
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I'm monkey
I knew that, you kind of outed yourself when you said you wanted to hear from RR when he was the only one who hadn't claimed yet.
Nice.
Vote: Jake
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Vote: WW Wow I thought you were town. Guess I thought wrong
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I'm monkey
I knew that, you kind of outed yourself when you said you wanted to hear from RR when he was the only one who hadn't claimed yet.
Yeah.. I kind of thought I might but I wanted to give a hint in case I needed to prove myself to town.
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Vote: Jake
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RR and Jake are scum.
RR, believe me when I tell you Jake is scum.
Which one do you mean?
The second. "RR, Jake is scum."
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I'm monkey
I knew that, you kind of outed yourself when you said you wanted to hear from RR when he was the only one who hadn't claimed yet.
Yeah.. I kind of thought I might but I wanted to give a hint in case I needed to prove myself to town.
Well, this is working out perfectly so it was fine.
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Okay so, Jake partner is almost surely Pac. Awaclus is almost impossible, Space is very very unlikely.
Now he's been harping LL for quite some time, but I think it started well after LL was a viable lynch. So, LL is pretty possible. I don't think RR is unable to be the partner, though.
But actually it almost doesn't matter.. we can just lynch Pac tomorrow.
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vote: Jake
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We need Space to come back, too, right? Otherwise we all have to move to Pac.
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Wow I can't beleive you all fell for that by WW. Lynch him tommorw
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Well, or LaLight.
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Wow I can't beleive you all fell for that by WW. Lynch him tommorw
If there even is one Most likely not.
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Well, or LaLight.
Nope. He wouldn't lynch the Moon King for town cred.
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Space is online.
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Request Vote Count
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Space, are you here? Can you check in?
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Poke: Space
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Vote: Jake
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Okay so, Jake partner is almost surely Pac. Awaclus is almost impossible, Space is very very unlikely.
Now he's been harping LL for quite some time, but I think it started well after LL was a viable lynch. So, LL is pretty possible. I don't think RR is unable to be the partner, though.
But actually it almost doesn't matter.. we can just lynch Pac tomorrow.
I guess I shouldn't be so hasty. Pac/Jake is not 100%: my previous arguments about quickhammer were flawed. Tomorrow is still a MyLo type situation, so do the reading and due diligence.
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Yay
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Well unless he really is king
That's hammer, right?
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I think that's the hammer.
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WW, RR, Awaclus, gkrieg, Space is 5 people.
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So. Jake, are you scum?
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He is. Better question is, is he the King.
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So. Jake, are you scum?
You're all scum!!!! You've stolen my crown!! THIEVES THIEVES!!
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Good
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Day 1 Final Vote Count:
SA (1): Pacovf
RR (1): LaLight
Jake (5): WW, RR, Awaclus, gkrieg13, SA
WW (1): Jake
Not Voting (0):
With 8 alive, it took 5 to lynch.
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The Moon King has been lynched! Town wins!
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Hell yeah
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Sweet.
This setup has been rough for scum.
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So LaLight was really scum?
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So LaLight was really scum?
Yeah.
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Is there a QT? What was the plan with claiming Beetle?
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Is there a QT? What was the plan with claiming Beetle?
I don't have it now, phoneposting.
Funny thing is that my story about breadcrumbing is true, though i wanted to claim Monkey, so it started with "monitor" and ended with attention is a key" but i really lost it.
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Here's my mysterious reason for voting Pacovf: He told me I had a 1/5 chance of roleblocking scum. He didn't account for LaLight. I was going to block LaLight because it would've made sooooo much sense for him to perform the kill.
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Here's my mysterious reason for voting Pacovf: He told me I had a 1/5 chance of roleblocking scum. He didn't account for LaLight. I was going to block LaLight because it would've made sooooo much sense for him to perform the kill.
I can give the QT https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/BiNsEwBJGXLV2
This setup is really hard for scum as soon as there's a massclaim.
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Plan was to out and kill the Beetle so we win and distract attention from Jake. But we would never have a second night.
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Speccy: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/GQpqquub6T2w
The mass claim is something that has to be planned for by scum, like anything else.
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Setup is awesome. It could go either way. And we couldn't coordinate to qh SA when WW and gkrieg were voting.
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Rerun is open: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=17091.0
Priority to spectators from this game, but open to all.
I hope you all enjoyed the game -- the thing I love about blitz is the hectic pace, the insane pressure, and the different strategies that need to be employed.
Plus, we can run it over and over quickly. This first rerun will use the same ruleset, but a more knowledgeable playerbase. It is always interesting to see how things change.
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So this was super fun to spectate! We thought this would be rough for town, I actually think town just played an amaaaaazing game here.
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And we have a obvious mvp
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As far as MVP...this is really tough. To me, both Awaclus and WW stood out for outstanding town play.
Awaclus...wasn't himself this game, in the best way possible. (Don't take that as an insult, man.). His reads were strong, he thought things through and actually posted that stuff (probably not all of it, but enough), and he pushed the right people. Solid throughout the game.
WW made a great call with his claim, and the second half of the day really stood up and took charge. In a lot of ways, he played the role of the IC when the IC wasn't around. The arguments he made really helped sway the other townies and the scum couldn't fight his posts.
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From Ash in Speccy:
"Scum's win condition is to have a majority. They don't auto-win at 3 vs. 3.
It's 6 alive, 4 to lynch."
Why wouldn't the game just be ended? Scum can just admit who they are, never vote, and wait until a kill goes through.
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Oh okay, I guess you explain that players can still make a mistake. But, still, never voting would guarantee scum victory in 3v3, right?
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Oh okay, I guess you explain that players can still make a mistake. But, still, never voting would guarantee scum victory in 3v3, right?
Only if Beetle is dead.
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I think WW should be MVP
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PS I lied as town, Shraeye would be proud.
I think it was the right move.. it would have maybe been a little better if I had claimed before a couple more people. If one of RR/Space were scum, they'd have known Monkey lied and it could have influenced their claim. That's actually what I suspected with RR... there was such a delay for his claim that fit perfectly into scum trying to figure out how to react to Monkey fake claiming. The Beetle thing was weird, and my first reaction was that he just said the wrong name. Turns out it was all coincidence.
If I had been at greater risk of getting lynched I probably wouldn't have claimed VT, because the IC-ness was more important than the deception. As it was, I didn't really expect to get lynched. Though also the upshot isn't that great, because it began to be clear that I would be the NK if we didn't lynch a Bettle regardless.
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Oh okay, I guess you explain that players can still make a mistake. But, still, never voting would guarantee scum victory in 3v3, right?
Only if Beetle is dead.
I do need to address the stalemate idea. If Beetle successfully blocks X times in a row, seems like we ought to give town the win.
The hard part in making this work with NKs is this thing here. The original version of this that we used to play just had a vengekill for the first lynched scum.
But basically it boils down to:
If you mislynch on D1, you need to successfully avoid the death on N1 or you are in a losing situation 99% of the time.
I originally had some wonky voting rules for the 3 v 3 situation, but it wasn't feasible without either giving away who scum is or letting them lynch as a team for the win anyway.
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Oh okay, I guess you explain that players can still make a mistake. But, still, never voting would guarantee scum victory in 3v3, right?
Only if Beetle is dead.
Right, but no majority is a no lynch, correct? In theory Beetle can continually choose correctly and the game goes on forever, but that chance shrinks like 1/3^n. There is no way scum can die and they can just wait out their next kill attempt at night.
PPE: okay
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I actually think I made a mistake in allowing No Lynches.
If we forced a lynch at 3 v 3, you basically force scum to pull off the perfect quickhammer or bus.
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No lynch wasn't an option in the original series, and shouldn't be here. That will be removed in the rerun.
It does change some calculus, too.
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Speccy: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/GQpqquub6T2w
The mass claim is something that has to be planned for by scum, like anything else.
Wow, even the speccy scumread me! What can I do to stop everyone wanting to mislynch me all the time? It's really depressing :-(
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Awaclus...wasn't himself this game, in the best way possible.
I was totally myself this game. The only things outside my usual town meta were these:
I'm like 50% sure he's scum.
Yeah, but I'm not scum so I don't have a QT.
Which I posted because apparently I have to do a better job at convincing everyone else I'm town.
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Good job. Shot out to WW and Awaclus, who played really well. I think we were unlucky with Jake being the Moon King, we would have played differently. Doesn't help tht I wasn't online at all the last 3 hours.
SA, I thought you actually played reasonably well, you were just unlucky with the way wagons formed.
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Awaclus...wasn't himself this game, in the best way possible.
I was totally myself this game. The only things outside my usual town meta were these:
I'm like 50% sure he's scum.
Yeah, but I'm not scum so I don't have a QT.
Which I posted because apparently I have to do a better job at convincing everyone else I'm town.
Yeah, I found you much easier to play with and townread this game than previously!
I'd vote for you for MVP over WW for this game :-) You drove the massclaim for all the right reasons, while WW made a big show of voting recklessly and would have gotten town quickhammered for an almost certain loss if scum had been a little more on the ball.
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i guess all RR claims look like fakeclaims to me
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Speccy: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/GQpqquub6T2w
The mass claim is something that has to be planned for by scum, like anything else.
Wow, even the speccy scumread me! What can I do to stop everyone wanting to mislynch me all the time? It's really depressing :-(
I mentioned this in my reread; you have a very cautious town style. This isn't bad at all, but overall scum has a tendency to play similarly. (Looks like hedgey scum, basically.) I was aware of this aspect of your meta, however, and it factored quite a bit into how I ended up reading you at the end. So it's not a terrible thing.
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Awaclus...wasn't himself this game, in the best way possible.
I was totally myself this game. The only things outside my usual town meta were these:
I'm like 50% sure he's scum.
Yeah, but I'm not scum so I don't have a QT.
Which I posted because apparently I have to do a better job at convincing everyone else I'm town.
Yeah, I found you much easier to play with and townread this game than previously!
I'd vote for you for MVP over WW for this game :-) You drove the massclaim for all the right reasons, while WW made a big show of voting recklessly and would have gotten town quickhammered for an almost certain loss if scum had been a little more on the ball.
I mean, this is flawed. You're overestimating how easy it is for scum to quickhammer and assuming I would just sit back and munch on popcorn and watch it happen.
In fact, I'd argue it had a very large influence in winning us the game. Jake voting you when you had a wagon was a huge factor into me seeing him as scum.
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What I want to point out is that town, in general, did play very well in this game. Not just me and WW, but everyone. Which is to say that it isn't an unreasonable thing to expect, and results were obviously great.
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Also, it was scum that came in and made a big deal about quickhammers being scary.
Gkrieg and I came in with productive voting. Look at all the activity it caused.
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Which isn't to say that it's without risk, but risks can be good.
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Awaclus...wasn't himself this game, in the best way possible.
I was totally myself this game. The only things outside my usual town meta were these:
I'm like 50% sure he's scum.
Yeah, but I'm not scum so I don't have a QT.
Which I posted because apparently I have to do a better job at convincing everyone else I'm town.
Yeah, I found you much easier to play with and townread this game than previously!
I'd vote for you for MVP over WW for this game :-) You drove the massclaim for all the right reasons, while WW made a big show of voting recklessly and would have gotten town quickhammered for an almost certain loss if scum had been a little more on the ball.
I mean, this is flawed. You're overestimating how easy it is for scum to quickhammer and assuming I would just sit back and munch on popcorn and watch it happen.
In fact, I'd argue it had a very large influence in winning us the game. Jake voting you when you had a wagon was a huge factor into me seeing him as scum.
The only reason I even voted was that pacovf kept telling me to put my vote somewhere in the QT
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I have a few thoughts, will post them when I have the time.
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Also, it was scum that came in and made a big deal about quickhammers being scary.
Gkrieg and I came in with productive voting. Look at all the activity it caused.
I agree with this. I think the early wagons were very important.
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Right, but ultimately it was because you were scum (whether you wanted to or you were following your partner's advice). Note that Pacovf's reasoning was to enable quickhammering.
My point is that such voting by scum gives information.
There was a lot of argument that 'reckless' voting is scummy because .. well, by some leap of logic, lynches are just going to magically happen. First, if town are quick to vote and quick to move votes, that actually makes quickhammering harder, not easier. Yes wagons can get to the critical L-3, L-2 points, but the quickhammer still has to happen, which requires scum being around, coordinating, and executing. During that time the votes can move. It's not like it just happens.
Second, voting and wagons force reactions, and reactions are how we get information. Early on Pac said there's no information from random voting, except LaLight came in with a flurry of posts insisting we all be careful and unvote, and Pac (allegedly!) voted LaLight because of this.
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To be fair, I think I played very close to my town self up until the massclaim approached, so I think anything you see there is just confirmation bias. Well, I avoided interacting with Jake, because his thought process confuses me, and I was scared I would end up forcing myself to vote for the Moon King. After the massclaim, the number of options open to scum that didn't lead to an automatic loss down the line were heavily reduced, so that's when my play was heavily affected by my alignment. Also, blitz. Not enough time to reread and look for things.
I think something I disliked about the setup is that even if everybody thinks a specific scum is town, scum can still lose. It forces your hand a whole lot more than in normal mafia games. If early on town targets the Moon King, there is nothing scum can do, they just lose.
I think quickhammers are definitely a thing in this setup, but only when two scum are online at the same time. Three, that's too hard. But two can pass by way faster than any one can react. You need town already in the wagon to see what's happening, not just any town. But yeah, the early concern was overblown (I did vote Lalight over it).
Also, Jake, you need to learn to stay focused under pressure. You flailed a lot this morning. :p When I told you to vote, I don't think I told you to vote for SA, just to vote. The more votes around, the better the chances that town ends up at L-2.
For the record, 3v3, as defined in the setup, is an unavoidable win for scum. If that had been changed after the fact, I would have been extremely annoyed. Possibly the game would be better with forced lynches, but you can't just change the rules mid game...
Oh, and gkrieg was extremely scary as IC. Pretty much every time he asked a question I started sweating :p It's uh fortunate that he wasn't online that often.
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I think you were a lot like your town self, at least as much as I could remember. I was still pretty null on you when we were arguing through that one part of the day.
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i think it's interesting that this setup almost reverses the normal town/mafia win chances. It's
Like in a normal game of town catches scum d1 it's over and even if they mis the first day or so they can still come back. In this game it's really if scum lynches town d1 it's game over, and even if they get lynched they as long as it isn't the king they still have a chance to comback.
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I think you were a lot like your town self, at least as much as I could remember. I was still pretty null on you when we were arguing through that one part of the day.
I noticed I did a few things differently as the game evolved, but not telling you what those are :P
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In retrospect, I must admit that I didn't consider the possibility of 2 scum fakeclaiming the same PR. But now that I've considered it, it really wouldn't have changed anything because it would have sucked for scum.
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Like in a normal game of town catches scum d1 it's over
This is a bit of a self-fulfiling prophecy. If scum thinks that their chances of winning are basically zero with a D1 scum lynch and they play accordingly, and then scum gets lynched, of course they will lose because they presumably spent a large amount of time defending their partner.
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In retrospect, I must admit that I didn't consider the possibility of 2 scum fakeclaiming the same PR. But now that I've considered it, it really wouldn't have changed anything because it would have sucked for scum.
It would have been fun though :P