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[liopoil]

What about teproc too?

[Robz888]

Extremely busy today, sorry. Um, I haven't done of those? I don't know. I guess mail-mi is the scummiest, but there really isn't anyone in this pool that makes me say "definitely town, do not lynch." I most resistant to lynching Ichimaru, I suppose. Sort of just gut feeling that he is a newbie townie.

What do you think about lio? Do you think no scum were involved in ash's lynch?

On lio, I really thought he was scumm on Day 1, and in some ways he's done exactly what I expect from scum lio (steadily increased participation), but on the other hand--and this is a big thing--my memory is that he has stood up two scrutiny on both Day 1 and Day 2, and that's something that's townie. Or at least something I think is townie. Now, the reaosn I'm hesitant to say this is I'm actually having trouble remembering what's happened in this game (exactly 36 games in is my breaking point I guess), and it could be that lio got less pressure than I remember yesterday.

As for ash's lynch, it was mainly driven by me, who is town, and Voltaire, who I take to be town and am operating under the assumption that he is town for this analysis anyway. So yes, I could see it being all town. Wouldn't be the first time that's ever happened.

What about teproc too?

Teproc, I think got a lot of pressure yesterday, but almost none Day 1, so I wouldn't give him the sort of stamp-of-towniness that lio gets for surviving the pressure.

Mail-mi never got any wagon going against him at all really, desite beingf scummy to at least a few, so that's probably the best bet at the moment.

Yuma has gotten absolutely zero pressure, which is actually very scummy. He's had a much smaller presence than usual too, ostensibly due to VLA.

Ichi I think has gotten a mid amount of scrutiny, more than yuma and mail-mi but less than teproc and liopoil.

[Voltaire]

You think lio was under pressure yesterday?

[mail-mi]

okay reads:

teproc
ichi
robz
yuma
liopoil.

Am I still voting teproc? I should be. vote: teproc3

oh and sorry, i haen't been paying as much attention to this game as I should, a lot of stuff has been happening lately.

Please elaborate and give reasons for the rankings, mail-mi.

Only Robz hasn't done one of these so far.

Teproc: bad voting and day 2 stuff
Ichi: I didnt think so before but he fits  bill for Newbie scum pretty well.
Robz:null
Yuma: hasn't done anything to make me suspicious, but it's yuma so...
Liopoil: same as yuma without the but it's yuma part

[Robz888]

You think lio was under pressure yesterday?

Now, the reaosn I'm hesitant to say this is I'm actually having trouble remembering what's happened in this game (exactly 36 games in is my breaking point I guess), and it could be that lio got less pressure than I remember yesterday.

[Teproc]

Bad voting ? Not being on mislynches is bad now ?

I guess you would say that.

[Voltaire]

In my memory, lio got no pressure at all from anyone but yuma (and I think mail-mi sheeping him) yesterday. In my memory, it never developed into a serious wagon.

[Ichimaru Gin]

okay reads:

teproc
ichi
robz
yuma
liopoil.

Am I still voting teproc? I should be. vote: teproc3

oh and sorry, i haen't been paying as much attention to this game as I should, a lot of stuff has been happening lately.

Please elaborate and give reasons for the rankings, mail-mi.

Only Robz hasn't done one of these so far.

Teproc: bad voting and day 2 stuff
Ichi: I didnt think so before but he fits  bill for Newbie scum pretty well.
Robz:null
Yuma: hasn't done anything to make me suspicious, but it's yuma so...
Liopoil: same as yuma without the but it's yuma part

I'd appreciate at least a word of justification for why you think I'm newbie scum.
This sounds like a 180 to OMGUS, just cause I put you at 2nd scummiest on my list.

[Voltaire]

My gut says lynch Teproc. But my gut is also very hungry.

So, fellow probablyICs e and Lekkit, what do you two think?

[Teproc]

In my memory, lio got no pressure at all from anyone but yuma (and I think mail-mi sheeping him) yesterday. In my memory, it never developed into a serious wagon.

This.

[Robz888]

In my memory, lio got no pressure at all from anyone but yuma (and I think mail-mi sheeping him) yesterday. In my memory, it never developed into a serious wagon.

Okay well I really have to re read but you wanted answers NOW

[Voltaire]

Okay well I really have to re read but you wanted answers NOW

No, not really, but you did show up to give answers NOW the moment you were called out.

[Teproc]

Okay well I really have to re read but you wanted answers NOW

No, not really, but you did show up to give answers NOW the moment you were called out.

Can we stop with that argument ? What do you want people to do, wait a little before they respond to quasi-IC's questions ? That's kinda dumb.

[Voltaire]

Not what I am saying. What I am saying is, Robz posts nothing until he is mentioned. Doesn't mean he's scum.

You have gotten extremely hostile lately, Teproc. That is not normal you.

[2.71828.....]

Sorry, I feel unproductive and not very useful right now.  It has been a hectic IRL day and I don't see things slowing down a lot tomorrow.  I am actually moving Saturday, but hopefully I will have some down time Sunday where I can sit down and get some good reads in.

[Teproc]

Hostile ? I thought I was being light-hearted, but I guess it doesn't come through that way. Sorry then.

[Voltaire]

Hostile ? I thought I was being light-hearted, but I guess it doesn't come through that way. Sorry then.

It's all good. I realized after posting that that what you'd written could be interpreted multiple ways, and I took the non-charitable one. My bad.

[Teproc]

So, here's an interesting exercise. Now that we know that ash was town, how do we think scum reacted to the faust fakeclaim ? They wouldn't have had any reason to disbelieve it, in which case faust was pretty much the best mislynch ever for them. So that's from #806 to #970

I'll look at Ichimaru first, because he's the first of my lynch pool to post in that time frame :

Phone post:

Isn't claiming vengeful normally something that gets you lynched?
So why would Faust claim it?
It's almost like he wants to get lynched.
The whole "this is going nowhere" thing kinda cinches if for me

One thing that strikes me as odd in this post (his first one after the claim) is that first question. As a newbie (that's not meant to be mean by the way, just in case), why would Ichimaru think that claiming Vengeful is something that gets you lynched ? The two I can think of are :
- Ichimaru is Vengeful, so he did some research on how to play the role, and got the idea that it was bad to claim as Vengeful (which might be true, I haven't given it that much thought tbh)
- Ichimaru is scum, and has discussed possible fakeclaims with his partners in the QT.

That's not where I was going with this, but I thought it was worth noting.

Back on track :

I find Faust's claim completely scummy. That, and the fact that he just disappeared after making it. His excuse does not hold up in my mind either.
We need a lynch today, and I think Faust is it.
vote: Faust

So, consistent with the "jumping with glee" approach to the faust fakeclaim.

Looking at Robz next.

[yuma]

My gut says lynch Teproc. But my gut is also very hungry.

vote: no no lunch?

[Teproc]

Robz then.

I'm more likely to think faust is scum post-claim. Vengeful is absolutely the thing scum would claim here. They actually want to proactively claim that if they can, probably. And faust wasn't in any danger, was he? I have to check. If he really, really isn't in any danger, I may actually want to lynch him after all. Yeah.

Yeah, there were only two people voting for him. So he had no reason to claim, but did, in order to put out the kind of claim that scum really really wants to make.

Fausr, do you disagree that that's what you did? We really gotta understand you here, man.

That's his first response (these posts are consecutive). Is Vengeful "absolutely" the thing scum would claim here, really ? I guess it might be, since it can't be proven wrong unless you get lynched/killed, and you can manipulate your reads in interesting ways.

Robz then goes into his plan to make faust stumble on his fakeclaim thanks to mafiascum being down. I'm not sure, but I think this is townie. I think scum wants town to believe faust's claim and lynch him for it, on the basis that if you think either of faust and ashersky is scum, the faust lynch is good for town.

After that, he goes after e for his inconsistency on faust. So yeah, I think Robz's reaction here is very townie actually.

[Teproc]

liopoil's first reactions (again, those are consecutive posts)

before any of us say anything further regarding the claim, I let's have faust fully explain why he claimed, and why he says he will vengekill ashersky no matter what.

talking more will just give scum!faust ideas.

3, there's no way a chairs lynch is happening anyway.

Lastly, it seems that an eevee lynch isn't happening. the other clear options are faust and me, and I don't like either of those options. E now is at 3 votes and I think has a chance of happening, and is suspicious.

I am very, very tempted to vote for e, but the one thing holding me back is your 3. Why would e, as scum, do something as suspicious/crazy as vote for chairs (even if that's good for scum) when it's clear chairs isn't going through?

Also, mail-mi is an option. He may only have two votes but other people have called him scummy as well.

I realize mail-mi is an option, but I don't think he's as scummy as e. re: #3, I don't really think it's that weird. He could honestly think that town could be convinced to lynch chairs. He might be trying to fish for chairs' role.

The first one seems like a pretty standard response to a weird claim, the second reads townie because it's exploring other lynches.*

Then he goes along with Robz's plan by retaining information and discrediting the correct information brought by e and myself.

* Note : I realize that scum could very well assume that faust is going to get lynched and sit on some other wagon to enjoy the town cred, but e was the most likely non-faust lynch at that point, so I feel safe giving some credit to Robz and liopoil for going after e at that point.

Except he then votes faust (4) :

faust was active again at 17:22 forum time...

I'll go ahead and Vote: faust now. Worst case scenario his explanation is good and I unvote, so yeah, why not vote now.

He's still going after faust hard in #966.

Put him in the "jumping with glee" category as well then. He does have that one post still enquiring about other lynches, but he's pretty clearly pushing for faust after that. As I said earlier, I do think the Robz plan was a somewhat townie response (since I think scum would want faust's claim to be believed), so his participation in that does look good.

[Ichimaru Gin]

So, here's an interesting exercise. Now that we know that ash was town, how do we think scum reacted to the faust fakeclaim ? They wouldn't have had any reason to disbelieve it, in which case faust was pretty much the best mislynch ever for them. So that's from #806 to #970

I'll look at Ichimaru first, because he's the first of my lynch pool to post in that time frame :

Phone post:

Isn't claiming vengeful normally something that gets you lynched?
So why would Faust claim it?
It's almost like he wants to get lynched.
The whole "this is going nowhere" thing kinda cinches if for me

One thing that strikes me as odd in this post (his first one after the claim) is that first question. As a newbie (that's not meant to be mean by the way, just in case), why would Ichimaru think that claiming Vengeful is something that gets you lynched ? The two I can think of are :
- Ichimaru is Vengeful, so he did some research on how to play the role, and got the idea that it was bad to claim as Vengeful (which might be true, I haven't given it that much thought tbh)
- Ichimaru is scum, and has discussed possible fakeclaims with his partners in the QT.

That's not where I was going with this, but I thought it was worth noting.

Back on track :

I find Faust's claim completely scummy. That, and the fact that he just disappeared after making it. His excuse does not hold up in my mind either.
We need a lynch today, and I think Faust is it.
vote: Faust

So, consistent with the "jumping with glee" approach to the faust fakeclaim.

Looking at Robz next.

The way Faust handled his claim and the subsequent "Oh I lied so that there would be something to analyze". Was just plain scummy. All that means is that almost everyone ended up wanting to lynch him--town and scum albeit for different reasons. I thought this had already been established.

As to the second part of your post, I think you're miscontruing what I said. Claiming vengeful in the way that Faust did, threatening to kill Ash and basically trying to blackmail people out of lynching him (when there wasn't even much of a wagon on him at that point) is just--like I said--almost asking to be killed. At least at that point (I don't know about now), I couldn't see a town narrative where claiming vengeful would be helpful to town. And it most definitely wasn't--as it hijacked the rest of the day and almost assured a mislynch of Faust. At this point, I am not going to be claiming anything.
I guess there would be some scenarios where claiming vengeful would be helpful to town, but I can't think of any.

The fact that I think claiming vengeful is something likely to get someone lynched simply reflects my opinion based upon what preparation I had done before the game started--and trying to think possible scenarios out. We already seem to disagree on the scumminess of someone having received no suspicion.

Yes, I am a newbie, but I did my best to read over old games, the setup, and articles on Mafiascum. So using the argument that me having knowledge of something that you think I theoretically couldn't/wouldn't have without being scum is just silly.

[Teproc]

yuma's first reaction

I am going to withhold judgement on faust until/if we hear from him. I will not be online during the deadline. I will be at work and unable to post, so hopefully we will hear from him soon.

i will get online before leaving for work--something I generally don't, but I'll get up early just for you guys...

I think I am still comfortable with my vote on 2.7, but want to go through my list of people not excluded from my town list.

And then a big post where he votes Eevee and wants to wait for faust to explain his claim.

Once faust does explain, yuma doesn't see the town narrative for his claim and puts faust at L-1 because his alternative lynches (liopoil, Eevee) don't look like they're happening.

Hm. Well this doesn't tell me much. yuma is yuma, so his whole reaction here is very reasonable, but he does end up voting for faust. Basically, he's doing exactly what I think scum!yuma would do (get faust lynched while looking very townie) but it is very easy to see town!yuma act in the exact same way, so... still null on yuma.

PPE : Ichimaru, I want to stress again that I'm sorry if I appear to be disrespectful in my analysis of you, that's not the intention. I guess I thought you hadn't done that much research because you didn't know what OMGUS was, and that's a pretty basic term (although I have never read strategy articles on mafiascum, I only read a bunch of games here, so my perspective might be biased here).

I'll point out that what I'm doing here is not pointing fingers at people for lynching faust, I'm just trying to see how scum would have reacted to his claim, and I think your behavior fits that. I think it is very valuable to look at the reactions to faust's claim because we have new info : ash is confirmed town now. So anything that "has already been established" about that has to be reexamined imo.

[Teproc]

mail-mi has, like, three posts in that time frame, all about wanting to lynch/convince a dead faust to target e and then switching over to Eevee because the e lynch isn't happening.

Overall, this hasn't been as fruitful as I expected. I do think it makes me want to not lynch Robz today, as I think he comes out the towniest here.

[Lekkit]

I wish I had more time, less work and a less upset stomach. Too much happening for me to actually do something productive here today. On the bright side I have the day off tomorrow since I had to work today. I really hope I won't be feeling as beat as I did yesterday.

I'd like to put this up for discussion. If we lynch scum today, should I go for the suicide hiding? I think it might be worth it since we are then left with only 1 mafia. And it would confirm my claim. The problem is that I don't really have very strong scum reads this game and hiding behind town and getting double killed would be really bad.