Alright, so re-reading here's what I got:
Not much.
Most of what has happened has been theory talk that I have a hard time getting any scum-hunting material out of. Then comes ash calling out raerae, and shareye calling out TA. One of these two gets much more attention than the other one: Ash's claim on raerae. Shareye brings this up in post #394. He claims that
And then the raerae/ash thing really took off; people were begging ash to say why, people were joining his wagon, voting for ash because he was being bull-headed, and all that jazz. But I recall only Twisted asking with any persistence about my vote on him.
If one of our "cases" was on scum, and one on town, I think I'd expect a bit more activity regarding both of the votes. If scum found their partner getting too much attention, they'd bring up the other person. And if scum saw everyone piling on the town-wagon, they'd focus on their partner and try to buy some cred that way.
The way the reactions fell, it seems more possible that raerae/TA are of the same alignment.
now, I think the reason only TA asked about shraeye's case on him was that it was about TA, and shraeye didn't really push his case. As I recall, ash hinted about information on raerae in about every other post he made (and he made quite a few). Shraeye, mentions it once and doesn't bring it up much after that. This may not have been the case, I just remember from my read-through, I can remember ash's firm stance on raerae, but I can't remember shraeye even saying anything about TA. That tells me he did not make his case very prominent (or not as prominent as TA). So this make me think that raerae is town. Scum could easily have jumped on shraeye's TA claim and tried to take some heat off of raerae, but they didn't. now, I'm not sure about the cred buying by scum. This early in the game? I'm not sure. So I'm not throwing out the idea that TA is scum, but I do think raerae is town off of this
Something quite concerning that I saw that nobody picked up on was something to do with xerion:
I fail to see how I put Ashersky in a bad spot. Yes, He might be a PR, but since this is role madness there should be no shortage of power roles. If he has an investigative role and already know raerae is scum, I do think he should claim so sometime during D1. If he don't, and we lynch raerae based on softclaims/cases from Ashersky and she flips town, we won't know if he is scum or just mistaken town. Remember that in his exemple he flipped the alignments. Had we lynched mcmc in that game without ash needing to claim, we wouldn't have caught him(ash) as scum.
My general belief if to DO claim results from investigations/watching/tracking/etc. unless you do not have to, if you caught scum. We probably have one or more doctor/protection role so it is not instant death to claim cop.
I did point it out because it is the among the most interesting things I have found in this game by now, because it might mean Ashersky is building up for a claim. If he is, that claim may be a fake, just as likely as a real one. Ashersky just had huge success with preparing for and then fakeclaimimg as scum. He would probably consider doing something like that again.
He says this like it's no big deal if we lynch a PR. It still is, especially if it's a super powerful role like cop or doctor. Additionally, EFHW brought up at some point that most of our roles are probably going to be 1-shot based on the fact that we can create our own PR's. People thought this meant that our PR's we create are going to be 1-shot. While this makes a lot of sense, I think it's more important to note that most of our initial PR's are probably 1-shot. If we're able to give ourselves a PR every night, I feel like an unlimited PR would be way OP. This being said, if ash is an investigative role, I'm not sure he would use up his 1 shot night 0. This also includes losing whatever item(s) ash is capable of giving away. Long story short, I don't like how unconcerned xerion is with a mislynch.
Thinking about it, so far, I'm not getting very strong reads on anyone. so for me at this moment, I'm not ready to lynch anyone. If I had to lynch anyone right now, I don't think I could. I would vote no-lynch right now if it was the deadline. But it isn't so I'll give it more time. I didn't quite get up to the point of spiritbears meltdown (if I can call it that). i kinda skimmed it and don't really know the details, but from what I remember from my quick read of it is that ti seems like town spiritbears. From mean girls, when spiritbears is under pressure he doesn't get too happy. He seems all towny and stuff until you try to call him out then he gets very defensive. normally I'd see that as scummy, but the spiritbears meta I saw in mean girls disagrees. I want to read more, but I wanted to get my current thoughts out there. I'll do more tomorrow (or possibly tonight, we'll see)
By the way: I'm also going to have limited access from saturday to saturday next week. I'll be traveling both saturdays and won't have much access those days, but I should have more access during the week. Thanks!
PPE: Regarding my post bloating with theory talk: I'm sorry, that's just who I am. I can grasp theory and it's easier for me to discuss. I'm not that great at reading people. Especially day 1 when there really isn't that much to go on. It's not that interesting to me. Later, once I have more information to go on I can contribute more fully. I know, nobody likes this, but I just find D1 just so hard to go on. so much hand waving and pointing fingers with very very little evidence. It seems mostly about meta and past experience. Neither of which I have.