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[Jive Junkie]

Think you've got what it takes to be the game release Nostradamus? Then sally forth with a bold prediction as to when Goko Dominion will officially be (re)released to the public!

Rules:
- Only 1 vote per date. The first post with a particular date will be counted, others will not. Popular dates (such as those coinciding with certain game conventions) may get snapped up quickly, so act fast!
- The closest date will win, with ties going to the later date - for example, if it's released 9/20 and people guessed 9/19 and 9/21, 9/21 would win (yes, it's arbitrary, but you're strategy game players and can take that into account).
- Release is defined as when the game is officially released to the public for the second time (the first being in mid-August 2012), regardless of its condition or even if it needs to be taken down yet again. Note: a beta test is not the same thing as a release.
- Prediction must be posted at least 48 hours before any official release announcement is made, and at least 7 days before the actual release.
- You may not edit your prediction - posts that have been modified will not be counted (with the exception of this one )
- You may vote "never", but you must also supply a date at which the official cancellation (or going out of business) announcement is made. If "never" does take it, the closest date wins.

What will you win? Pride! A claim to fame! The love and adoration of hundreds! Or, maybe if you go bug theory, a custom title?

My prediction: November 20, 2012.

For latest list of entries, click here.

[yuma]

stardate 41153.7

[Captain_Frisk]

Think you've got what it takes to be the game release Nostradamus? Then sally forth with a bold prediction as to when Goko Dominion will officially be (re)released to the public!

Rules:
- Only 1 vote per date. Popular dates (such as those coinciding with certain game conventions) may get snapped up quickly, so act fast!
- The closest date will win, with ties going to the later date - for example, if it's released 9/20 and people guessed 9/19 and 9/21, 9/21 would win (yes, it's arbitrary, but you're strategy game players and can take that into account).

What will you win? Pride! A claim to fame! The love and adoration of hundreds! Or, maybe if you go bug theory, a custom title?

My prediction: November 20, 2012.

Votes should be gathered secretly to avoid gaming the system.

[Jive Junkie]

Votes should be gathered secretly to avoid gaming the system.

Since the stakes aren't devastatingly high (although, love and adoration are pretty sweet), I'm OK with people gaming the system to some extent. However, point taken, I'll add a couple more rules that should make this a bit less abusable.

[Insomniac]

Think you've got what it takes to be the game release Nostradamus? Then sally forth with a bold prediction as to when Goko Dominion will officially be (re)released to the public!

Rules:
- Only 1 vote per date. Popular dates (such as those coinciding with certain game conventions) may get snapped up quickly, so act fast!
- The closest date will win, with ties going to the later date - for example, if it's released 9/20 and people guessed 9/19 and 9/21, 9/21 would win (yes, it's arbitrary, but you're strategy game players and can take that into account).

What will you win? Pride! A claim to fame! The love and adoration of hundreds! Or, maybe if you go bug theory, a custom title?

My prediction: November 20, 2012.

Votes should be gathered secretly to avoid gaming the system.

I bid $1 Bob.   Oops wrong game.

[greatexpectations]

october 19, 2012. a little disappointing that i had to include the year in the prediction.

[Captain_Frisk]

We also need to define launch.  How long does it need to be up to count?  If it launches on Tuesday, but isn't stable till Friday - which date is it?

[jsh357]

never, they'll go under

[Jive Junkie]

stardate 41153.7

OK, so according to this yuma has officially voted Tuesday, April 30, 2363.

[HiveMindEmulator]

Are we talking about the next time it's released or the final time it's released?

[yuma]

stardate 41153.7

OK, so according to this yuma has officially voted Tuesday, April 30, 2363.

that would be correct

[Jive Junkie]

never, they'll go under

You may not have intended it, but this is now a valid entry - please specify the date at which they announce their cancellation/going out of business. 

Are we talking about the next time it's released or the final time it's released?

The next time.

[Kirian]

18 October 2012

If they don't have a working site by Essen, their licensors are going to start talking about breach of contract.

[werothegreat]

December 25th, 2012.  Just in time for the Mayan apocalypse.

[Davio]

[..]

What will you win? Pride! A claim to fame! The love and adoration of hundreds! Or, maybe if you go bug theory, a custom title?

My prediction: November 20, 2012.

Custom titles should be reserved for proven admins/moderators and people who've actually won something meaningful.







/misplaced arrogance. 

[Fabian]

[..]

What will you win? Pride! A claim to fame! The love and adoration of hundreds! Or, maybe if you go bug theory, a custom title?

My prediction: November 20, 2012.

Custom titles should be reserved for proven admins/moderators and people who've actually won something meaningful.







/misplaced arrogance. 

So not the Dutch Championship then?

trollface.jpg

[Robz888]

Let's do December 9, 2012.

[AdamH]

October 20, 2012

[Insomniac]

October 1, 2012

[jmieden]

October 7, 2012. It's my birthday.

[Schneau]

I will also select my birthday... next year: September 19, 2013

[Tdog]

September 29, 2012

[Jive Junkie]

To make things easier for new Nostradamuses (Nostradami?) not to duplicate a previous prediction, here's a list so far:


September 29, 2012 - Tdog
October 1, 2012 - Insomniac
October 7, 2012 - jmieden [jmieden's birthday]
October 18, 2012 - Kirian [1st day of Essen]
October 19, 2012 - greatexpectations [2nd day of Essen]
October 20, 2012 - AdamH [3rd day of Essen]
November 20, 2012 - Jive Junkie [Tuesday before Thanksgiving]
December 9, 2012 - Robz888
December 25, 2012 - werothegreat [Christmas, also around the Mayan Apocalypse]
September 19, 2013 - Schneau [Schneau's birthday]
April 30, 2363 - Yuma [Encounter at Farpoint]
NEVER (announce date of fail not yet predicted) - jsh357

[michaeljb]

December 12. Because 12/12/12

[bedlam]

October 30, 2012. - I wish I could pick my birthday, 10/19, but that's been taken.

[DStu]

April 30, 2363 - Yuma [Encounter at Farpoint]

In which timeline?

Edit: I just imagine Goko doing Kremin-style modification of the timeline until they manage to release...

[enquerencia]

I'll go with October 25th, 2012.  That's my birthday.  I see that's a common "strategy" in this game, but also it would be sweet if it came out on my birthday, and I got to play it on my birthday, and I won some intangible thing like adoration, etc.

[brokoli]

December 31, 2012.

Because it's the last chance before 2013.

[DStu]

Do we already have 13.0.0.0.0 maya-date?

[Christy]

20th November 2012, I decided it was a special date so I could pick a special date for this.

[aaron0013]

I can feel it .....It's...It's......November 13, 2012!

[Kirian]

Do we already have 13.0.0.0.0 maya-date?

I believe most scholarly research suggests that's actually last year.

[Jive Junkie]

Do we already have 13.0.0.0.0 maya-date?

I believe most scholarly research suggests that's actually last year.

Oh, is the popular date of 13.0.0.0.0 = December 21, 2012 wrong?

[Kirian]

Do we already have 13.0.0.0.0 maya-date?

I believe most scholarly research suggests that's actually last year.

Oh, is the popular date of 13.0.0.0.0 = December 21, 2012 wrong?

Hrm, my apologies; I had read somewhere that things had been miscalculated (i.e. everything should have been 2011), but I can't find that reference now.

[Jive Junkie]

Do we already have 13.0.0.0.0 maya-date?

I believe most scholarly research suggests that's actually last year.

Oh, is the popular date of 13.0.0.0.0 = December 21, 2012 wrong?

Hrm, my apologies; I had read somewhere that things had been miscalculated (i.e. everything should have been 2011), but I can't find that reference now.

Aww, too bad! I had been looking forward to presenting that to my superstitious coworker.

  : Oh my God, it's only 3 months away! What's going to happen?! Oh my Goooood!
  : Hmm, according to this, the real end date happened last year.
  : So what are we living in now? Oh. My. God.

[eHalcyon]

Do we already have 13.0.0.0.0 maya-date?

I believe most scholarly research suggests that's actually last year.

Oh, is the popular date of 13.0.0.0.0 = December 21, 2012 wrong?

Hrm, my apologies; I had read somewhere that things had been miscalculated (i.e. everything should have been 2011), but I can't find that reference now.

Aww, too bad! I had been looking forward to presenting that to my superstitious coworker.

  : Oh my God, it's only 3 months away! What's going to happen?! Oh my Goooood!
  : Hmm, according to this, the real end date happened last year.
  : So what are we living in now? Oh. My. God.

I read that before too.  Maybe one of these?

https://www.google.ca/search?q=mayan+calendar+2011&sugexp=chrome,mod=3&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

October 28, 2011?

[Cuzz]

Let's go with Dec. 1 2012.

[Polk5440]

November 30, 2012. Black Friday.

[greatexpectations]

just tossing this out there...i estimate that isotropic will hit 10 million games played on november 24. it would be kind of cool to see isotropic hit that before goko comes out.

[SharpWave]

Feb 2nd, 2013, for anything resembling a well made product.  We might see a thing where the store works but the cards are still buggy sometime mid-December.

[Jive Junkie]

September 29, 2012 - Tdog
October 1, 2012 - Insomniac
October 7, 2012 - jmieden [jmieden's birthday]
October 18, 2012 - Kirian [1st day of Essen]
October 19, 2012 - greatexpectations [2nd day of Essen]
October 20, 2012 - AdamH [3rd day of Essen]
October 25, 2012 - enquerencia [enquerencia's birthday]
October 30, 2012 - bedlam [All Hallows' Eve... Eve]
November 13, 2012 - aaron0013 [he feels it]
November 20, 2012 - Jive Junkie [Tuesday before Thanksgiving]
November 23, 2012 - Polk5440 [Black Friday!]
December 1, 2012 - Cuzz
December 9, 2012 - Robz888
December 12, 2012 - michaeljb [12/12/12]
December 25, 2012 - werothegreat [Christmas, also around the Mayan Apocalypse]
December 31, 2012 - brokoli [release has to happen before 2013!]
February 2, 2013 - SharpWave [assuming that Goko will not be released before it's a well-made product]
September 19, 2013 - Schneau [Schneau's birthday]
April 30, 2363 - Yuma [Encounter at Farpoint]
NEVER (announce date of fail not yet predicted) - jsh357


Looks like the predictions so far seem pretty bifurcated between October/Essen optimists and December+ pessimists. Maybe that means the few November people are the realists...

[Kirian]

Looks like the predictions so far seem pretty bifurcated between October/Essen optimists and December+ pessimists. Maybe that means the few November people are the realists...

Um... my October date was highly pessimistic, not optimistic.

[ftl]

I'll put in a vote for October 21! (2012)

[Razzishi]

October 17, 2012.  Gaming the system.

[Polk5440]

What do you mean Black-Friday-question-mark? Oh, wait. I screwed up. Black Friday is the 23rd this year. Can I change my prediction?

[jotheonah]

November 25th. 25ths seem popular.

[jsh357]

Oh, as for the failure announcement: I predict around January 1st

[Ozle]

November 5th 1985!

Zaps?! Where we're going we won't need Zaps!

[AdamH]

JSYK, when I said my date of 10/20, I had no idea it was during Essen. I didn't even know what Essen was until I Googled (TM) it. I just thought of a date, which was 10/19, saw that it was already taken, agonized for about 5 minutes whether or not to take the day before or after it, and eventually decided pessimistically.

+1 for using the word "bifurcated"

[aaron0013]

Not that it matters too much, but I actually said Nov. 13. Go November realists!

[Graystripe77]

Announce date of fail: October 27th, 2012

[Tables]

October 3rd

Based on current beta progress, the fact they've got a Q&A lined up and it being the same day of the week as the previous launch (IIRC)

[aaron0013]

October 3rd

Based on current beta progress, the fact they've got a Q&A lined up and it being the same day of the week as the previous launch (IIRC)

Wish I could believe that...

[Tables]

Personally, I think there's a case of blind leading the blind here. People voting November and beyond is pretty absurd, but because it's been happening, people are willing to do it because it doesn't look stupid any more.

Unless there's some major issue that arises, I don't see it not being out by the end of October. It's just, crazy if that happens.

[Fabian]

Personally, I think there's a case of blind leading the blind here. People voting November and beyond is pretty absurd, but because it's been happening, people are willing to do it because it doesn't look stupid any more.

Unless there's some major issue that arises, I don't see it not being out by the end of October. It's just, crazy if that happens.

I mean, thinking it'll be out by October is fine, and you might be right, and you might be a favorite to be right.. but calling anything else "absurd" is like super duper infinity absurd. You know this has been in the works for like 16* years by now right with extremely slow progress, and with like 10 major issues and a billion minor issues left to sort out?

* I think.

[Tables]

I know the issues which are there probably better than anyone not on the Goko team, given I've been the one going through the bug reports and stuff. Maybe I'm being a bit too strong with my prediction there, but, just, for it to not come out in the next six weeks, when all of the big bugs have been sorted and the intent is to go into public beta next anyway, is just, how long can you wait with something like this?

[Jive Junkie]

Um... my October date was highly pessimistic, not optimistic.

Relative to this predicting group as a whole, though, you're optimistic

What do you mean Black-Friday-question-mark? Oh, wait. I screwed up. Black Friday is the 23rd this year. Can I change my prediction?

Not that it matters too much, but I actually said Nov. 13. Go November realists!

Changed!

Personally, I think there's a case of blind leading the blind here. People voting November and beyond is pretty absurd, but because it's been happening, people are willing to do it because it doesn't look stupid any more.

Unless there's some major issue that arises, I don't see it not being out by the end of October. It's just, crazy if that happens.

You're right, I definitely think it's the case of the blind leading the blind. Having my opening post predict November 20 has surely had some effect (note that it's right near the median). But, seeing as a lot of us didn't make the beta, all we have to go on are the tidbits the testers throw us, the nature of software releases in general (just look at Valve), and the way the first release went.

All signs point to DELAY, especially since if they ship another buggy pile of manure, their credibility will completely vanish. If you're right and all the major bugs have been worked out, and they're just polishing it now, I'd love being pleasantly surprised in October. But it would be disastrous if they rushed this thing out again, and my later release date prediction actually indicates optimism at their unwillingness to cave in to a silly marketing deadline a second time if the product isn't ready.

[aaron0013]

I know the issues which are there probably better than anyone not on the Goko team, given I've been the one going through the bug reports and stuff. Maybe I'm being a bit too strong with my prediction there, but, just, for it to not come out in the next six weeks, when all of the big bugs have been sorted and the intent is to go into public beta next anyway, is just, how long can you wait with something like this?

Cool! I haven't heard anything about public beta. From the time they went from closed to live, I thought they were skipping an important step.

But realistically, how is open beta going to be different than the real thing? It seems like it would have the same chance of the server being swamped and people hating their guts.

[Captain_Frisk]

I predict today?  Do I win the thread?

[Schneau]

I predict today?  Do I win the thread?

It remains to be seen.

[DStu]

I predict today?  Do I win the thread?

- Prediction must be posted at least 48 hours before any official release announcement is made, and at least 7 days before the actual release.

[Tables]

- Prediction must be posted at least 48 hours before any official release announcement is made, and at least 7 days before the actual release.

Everyone rejoices in their shared loss!

[Captain_Frisk]

Everyone rejoices in their shared loss!

It's possible that this works on multiple levels.

[Jive Junkie]

- Prediction must be posted at least 48 hours before any official release announcement is made, and at least 7 days before the actual release.

Everyone rejoices in their shared loss!

Actually tdog would win with his prediction of September 29.

But since there has been no official announcement, and people have been reporting crazy bugs, this does not sounds like an official release. Seems like a mistake release, or a really clumsy transition into a public beta. Whatever the case, my faith in Funsockets Dominion is not exactly going up!

[Tables]

No, the predictions started on the 17th. That's less than 7 days before release.

[Jive Junkie]

No, the predictions started on the 17th. That's less than 7 days before release.

Haha, good catch! If this is official (for the sake of online Dominion, I hope not), maybe they released early just to spite this thread

[Tables]

Well, it's public beta. I'm still not sure if it was intended but we'll see.

[Insomniac]

Turns out it was intended, and you can give them money now even though all of the adventure act 2s are broken (except maybe base?) and all the act 1's are broken except for DA and Base. And even the act 2 you can play isn't fun.

[Tables]

Adventures still have a number of kinks to be fixed, and it doesn't seem entirely consistent in what works and what doesn't.

[SharpWave]

TDog wins?

[Jive Junkie]

TDog wins?

Nope, it's just a public beta, not an official release. Though depending on how it goes, Tdog could be in good shape.

[Watno]

October 16th

[Tables]

TDog wins?

Nope, it's just a public beta, not an official release. Though depending on how it goes, Tdog could be in good shape.

No, reread the TC's first post.

- Release is defined as when the game officially becomes available to the public for the second time (the first being in mid-August 2012), regardless of its condition or even if it needs to be taken down yet again.

It's a public beta, but it's officially available to the public, regardless of it's condition. Therefore, nobody wins.

[Jive Junkie]

TDog wins?

Nope, it's just a public beta, not an official release. Though depending on how it goes, Tdog could be in good shape.

No, reread the TC's first post.

- Release is defined as when the game officially becomes available to the public for the second time (the first being in mid-August 2012), regardless of its condition or even if it needs to be taken down yet again.

It's a public beta, but it's officially available to the public, regardless of it's condition. Therefore, nobody wins.

That's quibbling, and you know it. The spirit of the contest is the official release, not a beta, public or otherwise. I'll edit the text so rules lawyers will be happy.

[Tdog]

I claim a victory.

[Tables]

If you didn't intend that rule to mean 'Public Beta is okay', then what on earth was it referring to? I had presumed (and my vote very clearly indicates it) that a public Beta counted as a launch. Lots of things go from public beta to final product with basically only minor changes between the two, and some publicity.

[Jive Junkie]

If you didn't intend that rule to mean 'Public Beta is okay', then what on earth was it referring to? I had presumed (and my vote very clearly indicates it) that a public Beta counted as a launch. Lots of things go from public beta to final product with basically only minor changes between the two, and some publicity.

The rule was supposed to clarify whether it would be the 2nd release, 3rd release, final release, etc. In the event that something like the first release happened, where they had to pull the plug again. I see that the wording was apparently not clear enough.

Anyway, a beta test shouldn't count as an official release. A lot of people (myself included) don't join public betas of games they're not particularly invested in because the bugs will detract or even ruin your initial playthrough of it. It's not finished, it's not something they'd send to press to review (maybe preview), and it's not something that casual fans would really want to put themselves through.

I will join this beta, because it's one of my favorite games, and am willing to help out if I can.

[blueblimp]

It's not really a beta if they are charging real money.

[Jive Junkie]

The updated list:

November 5, 1985 - Ozle [gone huntin for Biff]
September 29, 2012 - Tdog
October 1, 2012 - Insomniac
October 3, 2012 - Tables [Q&A date]
October 7, 2012 - jmieden [jmieden's birthday]
October 16, 2012 - Watno
October 17, 2012 - Razzishi [gaming the system]
October 18, 2012 - Kirian [1st day of Essen]
October 19, 2012 - greatexpectations [2nd day of Essen]
October 20, 2012 - AdamH [3rd day of Essen]
October 21, 2012 - ftl [4th day of Essen]
October 25, 2012 - enquerencia [enquerencia's birthday]
October 30, 2012 - bedlam [All Hallows' Eve... Eve]
November 13, 2012 - aaron0013 [he feels it]
November 20, 2012 - Jive Junkie [Tuesday before Thanksgiving]
November 23, 2012 - Polk5440 [Black Friday!]
November 25, 2012 - jotheonah [25 by popular opinion]
December 1, 2012 - Cuzz
December 9, 2012 - Robz888
December 12, 2012 - michaeljb [12/12/12]
December 25, 2012 - werothegreat [Christmas, also around the Mayan Apocalypse]
December 31, 2012 - brokoli [release has to happen before 2013!]
February 2, 2013 - SharpWave [assuming that Goko will not be released before it's a well-made product]
September 19, 2013 - Schneau [Schneau's birthday]
April 30, 2363 - Yuma [Encounter at Farpoint]
NEVER - October 27, 2012 announcement - Graystripe77
NEVER - January 1, 2013 announcement - jsh357


We're heading into the first [real] predictions, but it looks like the beta still needs some work. The Essen dates may be in a good position now...

[aaron0013]

I'm still going for Nov. 13.  The feeling is getting stronger......and closer!

[aaron0013]

Hehe, goodbye Essen. Happy birthday enquerencia! The feeling continues to get stronger!

[Joseph2302]

Feb 23rd 2013

[Schneau]

I'd say we're about half way through the guesses at this point! Something in 2013 isn't looking so crazy now!

[shraeye]

Boom! Sign me up for January 20th, 2013.  Because I'm feeling it.

[shraeye]

Boom! Sign me up for January 20th, 2013.  Because I'm feeling it.

Wait, that's a Sunday.  Give me the following Monday, January 21st.

[aaron0013]

I've still got one more day!

[cactus]

My belated prediction:

I'm just not seeing how this whole Goko thing can have a happy ending. Maybe they're about 50/50 or 60/40 whether they will get their act together enough to have another (non-silent) release.... but even if they do manage to try another official release I can't see it being a success....

So.... I'm predicting that development and communication will continue to slow down and become more sporadic over the first quarter of 2013, followed by another few months of complete radio silence, and the final announcement that Goko dominion can't be made to work properly won't come until.... 2nd July 2013.

Put it in you're calendar folks.

[michaeljb]

Performing a bit of thread necromancy, mostly to share my own prediction: late Spring, or whenever Guilds comes out. In the private beta, all of the published cards are now up except for Possession, Black Market, and Stash. It's certainly plausible they'll have all the cards (including Guilds) done by Guilds' release date. Not having all of the cards available at the attempted August launch was one of the loudest complaints I remember seeing over and over, so solving that problem plus having the Guilds available on real life release would be very good for Goko.

Anyway here's the updated list in case anyone's still interested


January 21, 2013 - shraeye
February 2, 2013 - SharpWave [assuming that Goko will not be released before it's a well-made product]
Feb 23rd 2013 - Joseph
June 15, 2013 - michaeljb [guesstimation for "late Spring" Guilds release date] (edit note: previously just "Spring")
September 19, 2013 - Schneau [Schneau's birthday]
April 30, 2363 - Yuma [Encounter at Farpoint]
NEVER - July 2 announcement - cactus

[Ozle]

Pretty sure 'Spring' is not allowed!

If it is I will go for sometime between 2013 - 20187

Although, guilds release date should be.

[Beyond Awesome]

I am going to say Feb. 15th.

[pinkymadigan]

Pretty sure 'Spring' is not allowed!

If it is I will go for sometime between 2013 - 20187

Although, guilds release date should be.

If we're allowed to link it to other variable-type dates (like "guild's release date"), then mine is going to coincide with 'Goko's Dominion release date'.

[michaeljb]

OK, um Cornucopia came out in June right? So I guess I'll say June 15.

[michaeljb]

January 21, 2013 - shraeye
February 2, 2013 - SharpWave [assuming that Goko will not be released before it's a well-made product]
February 15, 2013 - Beyond Awesome
February 23, 2013 - Joseph
June 15, 2013 - michaeljb [guesstimation to coincide with "late Spring" Guilds release date]
September 19, 2013 - Schneau [Schneau's birthday]
April 30, 2363 - Yuma [Encounter at Farpoint]
December 31, 20187 - Ozle
NEVER - July 2 announcement - cactus

[Ozle]

Heh, I have already had a proper guess so you can't really count mine.

Although If I get another one I will go for

August 4th, 1997!

[michaeljb]

Ah I missed your time travel one since it was at the top of the list haha

[WanderingWinder]

April 1st.