OK so before anything -
there are back to back Vote Counts labeled as 1.11 and it cost me roughly an hour of my life trying to figure out why I was insane while I went through all of this. Kidding, but not
but also it is back to back 1.11's.
Ahem...
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.
2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)
*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*
3) Yes, there has to be a multi-shot RB since Galz flipped 1-Shot RB.
4) Mason should not claim today. Dumb. Math is fun, just do it. In Town's worst case scenario (albeit, given said mason is not lynched or killed), their claim value tomorrow is way more valuable tomorrow than it is today.
5) VCA from yesterday
There are two different ways to look at the actions of yesterday. We now know that Galz was Town (less important), but we also know that II was Town. At the end of the day, there was a lot of non movement, followed by a lot of movement. I need to go and break down how the Galz wagon pick up to begin with piece by piece, but towards the end I have it down. Here where we were are at 1.11:
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (6): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria, EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester
We know that Galz and II are Town and that XXR wasn't moving. The day draws very very close to end and no one wants to jump any ship. It would either take 2 people out of SS, Space, Swan, JK, EFHW to hammer Galz... or 1 person out of Robz, II, Skumpy, TA to hammer Simon.
I am going to go ahead and remove myself from my own logic moving forward, feel free to re do it under a difference precedent.
At this point there are two pools of players:
1) The players on Simon [SS, Space, GK, EFHW]
2) The players on Galz [Robz, Skumpy, TA]
From my PoV there are 4 unknowns on 1 wagon, and 3 unknowns on the other. So I find it unlikely... like extremely unlikely... that all three skum are on the same wagon at this point. I am not ready to yet dive into "how many on each" so for now, I am just going with there is at least 1 on each (also the XXR factor to be potentially added in).
At 1.11 - Any of Robz, Skumpy, or TA could of switched onto Simon and hammered them. This obv did not happen. Also not to be forgotten, unknown to the time Town!II could of hammered as well.
At 1.11 - 2 of any out of SS, Space, GK, EFHW could of collectively hammered Town!Galz.
--- Here is the fun part. At this point in time, Robz had been absent with no intent of joining. Also TA had just "had enough" with the False New nonsense and said they were out. So, from any earning town PoV (or skum for that matter), neither of those players were moving.
Pay attention boys and girls, this is where shit gets fun...
My above note is not speculation, getting ahead of that now. Robz had been Semi VLA like the entire game and there was no reason to believe he was to be here at the DL. Even if he "was expected" we are talking about a matter of 16 minutes at this point. I am torn on the TA-bailing thing because I both think that was a weak-ass move but also it makes my skin curl whenever anyone uses the phrase "Fake News". Either way - important note is that assuming from a Town POV - neither of them were coming back.
This leaves exactly one player left capable of hammering Simon - Skumpster.
Then, we have me and SS stating we do not want to go over to Galz, and there is some speculation stuff and whatever you can go and read it yourself... and then... EFHW switches over to Galz (super weakly I might add) due to "Town!II making a good statement".
This flips the wagon. Now it is 1.12 (or 1.11x2)
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria
Galzria (6): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester, EFHW
So at this point, after the EFHW switch we have a brief period of time in which Galz was L-1 (like less than 3 minutes). Now, what makes it fun is that II switched off onto Simon (but since we know Galz and II were both Town this means about dick). However, when II switches to Galz, it flips the wagon back to Simon L-1 and Galz L-2.
NOWWWWWWW, of the active players, either Skumpy OR EFHW can hammer Simon.
Instead what happens is SS says "if no one hammers Simon in the next minute I will hammer Galz". Then, if they didn't already know, there was an updated VC showing that Galz was L-2, in addition to my statement "Someone hammer Simon". Not to mention the numerous point outs of how the hammer situation was not the same in many messages prior given the switches. Then SS voted anyways. And then of course II hammered which I wasted 2 days of paranoia on.... but they flipped Town.
So here is where I am at. We know II and Galz are Town, and we know who was present and not. We can deal with the present vs the not present later - because whether the not present were skum or town, if skum knew they were not present they would still act accordingly and town would have to do so as well. This obv gives skum the upper hand, but again, we can do better speculation now than on that concept.
I would like to focus that speculation on Simon, SilverSpawn and EFHW.
with one speculation.
If Skum knew that some of the absent players were in fact skum, they would of had to move accordingly (only important if it was a town vs town wagon). But, still to be considered. At the end of it, Simon is probably skum. But the most reliable choice is SS.
Simon was the other major wagon, so I tend to take a lot of that person's actions out of the equasion because good town will do anything to stay alive.
EFHW did the weird switch back and forth thing, which is skummy af and they need to be looked at (and if SS gets lynched and is town it is like 100% efhw)... but, if SS is skum and EFHW is town then EFHW would be choosing between two unknown wagons just trying to push the lynch through.
SS is just skummy as hell. The random "IDK its not hammer hammer", the timing of votes, just like everything. Not to mention conf!Town Galz top skum read.
Vote: SilverSpawn