NOTE: I have not watched this season yet, and am avoiding this thread like the plague. I'll post my thoughts when I catch up.
You should catch up! It's a good season.
Fine episode again (this was the one where Joaquin went home, for reference to Robz). Some thoughts:
Jenn in a good position and a lot of fun to root for. Mike has really cleaned up after a slow start, I'd put them two as the two most likely to win right now. I guess we'll see how good Tyler is as a player now that he is potentially in trouble for the first time. I think he has still played well, but his position isn't looking too good now and he's been very invisible lately. I'm officially giving up hope on Joe, I like him a lot but he is just not a very good survivor player. He definitely should have offered a place in the NC alliance for Sierra, it's two girls roughly her age, Will who must seem fun even from afar and Joe who everyone ever must have a crush on, what's not to love for her? She even said she hates all her options multiple times, Joe should really have offered her a new one. It's never a promising sign when everyone is throwing your name around all episode and you only get one confessional, Joe seems to just be floating around hoping everything will turn out fine and amazingly, that's exactly what happened here. Dan had a strong showing in the challenge, he's hanging in there surprisingly well. Shirin really impressed me with how well she took Max being voted out. I really liked how she realized her situation is bad, but tried to think of ways of fixing it instead of feeling sorry for herself. Honestly, she seems like someone that would be fun to have in your life. I'm hoping she'll find another friend in the island before she gets voted out. Joaquin gained my respect for taking the blindside in stride. "This was my faith, and I'm going to take it with a smile on my face" is the best way to go out of survivor.
So, seems like it's merge time next episode. Are Mike, Dan, Kelly and Sierra and the no collars forming a power alliance? That would leave Shirin, Hot Rod (it's really so easy), Tyler and Carolyn in trouble. That would be really interesting, since the alliance would be 4 no collars and 4 blue collars with Will knowing he is on the bottom on one side and Sierra really hating one person on the other and generally not feeling very in with them. Seems like Mike was the one that got her to stay with them this episode and is generally keeping her in the fold, so it will be interesting to see how he does going forward. Again, this was a really strong episode for Mike.
The challenges have been fun this season, by the way.
I'm liking Jenn, Joe and Shirin the most. Tyler seems to have played well but needs to do something more than avoid making mistakes now. Carolyn's stock fell this episode. Kelly is still a potential winner, her position in the game seems good and I don't think they could have made her look any better in the fiasco with the challenge. I hate Sierra. I feel the swing votes are often people I most dislike, I guess that's because they are often people who feel wronged by their alliance and act really whiny about it. Hali is still boring to me, but I don't actively dislike her. It's hard to say what Will will do, he definitely has the cards to getting far but needs to play them well. He won't get to the end ever by just riding the NC alliance, but it really gives him room to maneuver. I'm holding out hope he won't just stay idle until he is in the bottom and voted out, but we'll see.
It could also be that NC and BC don't go together, but I think the NC 4 will be in the majority no matter what (which is fine by me, I like them). The other option I see possible is NC staying with Carolyn, who would bring in Tyler and maybe Shirin (?), which would leave Rodney, Mike, Sierra, Dan and Kelly (later, as I think the bonds she's formed with the no collar will have some value) in trouble.
Either way, Jenn is looking good, so officially calling her to win now! The NC4 seems to be in a power position, but Hali and Joe seem incapable of making any moves, and while Will seems capable of moves, it's still highly questionable if he's capable of good moves. If they go with the WC, I see Tyler and Carolyn as her biggest competition, and if they go with BC, I see Mike and Kelly as the 2nd and 3rd most likely winners.
Looking forward to Rodney's reaction to the boot next week. It's going to be great tv.