Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[jotheonah]

Remember when ash got all excited because no one was asking or expecting him to have a plan and he'd finally escaped that meta?

[ashersky]

--the rest of the post is not required--

why not policy-vote MiX for the way he handled the EoD1?

As a PR, I think I handled D1 well: there were exactly 2 wagons, one on me and one on the other person, they died instead of me, and my PR was of greater utility than theirs could ever be. The only reason math was hammered is because scum got in my way, and they paid the price. The way EoD1 would've gone is: math claims, people back off, people go for me, I redirect them to another wagon, we 1v1 me and that wagon, then we exile that wagon (even if I have to claim in the process). Saying there was a better thing for me to do is having the hindsight (and math's flip) that I couldn't have in EoD1.

With that out of the way, I'm sure we can agree that voting ash and voting me are 2 very different things? I'm claiming a PR and I have no real counterclaims, ash is executing a plan, something he said D1 that he would rather not be known for, this is much more consistent with scum!ash. Unless you think he can be Vig? If so, why?

Your description of your D1 reminds of when flat-Earthers explain to me why the Earth is flat.  They just so earnestly believe it.

[ashersky]

Edit after posting:

I wanted to say: It is MiX's ability to lie as well as he tells the truth that makes him a very good mafia player.  Because even when he is telling the truth, it so clearly sounds like lies.

This is a comment on MiX in general, not about his current alignment.

[ashersky]

The off-wagon argument raised by faust is a good one.  We have gotten a bit off track with traditional forms of analysis this D2.

[ashersky]

faust (2): SpaceAnenome, Ashersky
Ashersky (2): Joth, MiX
gkrieg (1): faust
MiX (1): Dylan32
EFHW (1): WestCoastDidds
Not Voting (2): EFHW, gkrieg

Copied the latest VC here for reference.

The way I see it, the breakdowns we are discussing here are:

1. faust vs. Space vs. Gkrieg
2. Dylan vs. WCD vs. EFHW

Everyone else is just off the table D2 for me for various reasons.  I'll post on these in a bit.

[WestCoastDidds]

Faust, you said that you'd prefer we don't exile either of MiX or Ash.  Is there any reason why that you can share right now?

But also, there is like for sure scum off the mathdude wagon, yes? Scum doesn't just pile all of their resources onto a terrible-looking misexile?

The only unflipped people there are you, gkrieg, Space. So assuming you are town, you should believe that there is scum to find here, and I think you townread Space.

For you, faust, why is a 1 in 3 shot better than a 1 in 2 shot? For WCD, why is a 1 in 2 based on wagon analysis better than a 1 in 2 based on conflicting claims?

I’m not fully convinced, but I’m investing a bit of faith in faust’s “trust me” that we shouldn’t exile Ash today.

[MiX]

Edit after posting:

I wanted to say: It is MiX's ability to lie as well as he tells the truth that makes him a very good mafia player.  Because even when he is telling the truth, it so clearly sounds like lies.

This is a comment on MiX in general, not about his current alignment.

Thank you, I've worked very hard to make my lies as believable as possible. It just turns out I'm very hard to believe in general.

--the rest of the post is not required--

why not policy-vote MiX for the way he handled the EoD1?

As a PR, I think I handled D1 well: there were exactly 2 wagons, one on me and one on the other person, they died instead of me, and my PR was of greater utility than theirs could ever be. The only reason math was hammered is because scum got in my way, and they paid the price. The way EoD1 would've gone is: math claims, people back off, people go for me, I redirect them to another wagon, we 1v1 me and that wagon, then we exile that wagon (even if I have to claim in the process). Saying there was a better thing for me to do is having the hindsight (and math's flip) that I couldn't have in EoD1.

With that out of the way, I'm sure we can agree that voting ash and voting me are 2 very different things? I'm claiming a PR and I have no real counterclaims, ash is executing a plan, something he said D1 that he would rather not be known for, this is much more consistent with scum!ash. Unless you think he can be Vig? If so, why?

Your description of your D1 reminds of when flat-Earthers explain to me why the Earth is flat.  They just so earnestly believe it.

That's adorable. Just like those arguments, mafia doesn't ground itself on logic, so the comparison's accurate. It's not about whether I was right in how I should've played EoD1, it's about what I believe is right, that lets you get a read on me.

I guess the conclusion here is: policy votes are bad, ash's scum and that's why I'm voting him. But I just want to convince Space to vote ash, so I'll probably say anything to get what I want at this point.

[EFHW]

Also faust has a history of reading me incorrectly and pushing for my misexile, as do I with incorrectly pushing his.

I know you think you read me well, but we have the same history. Why did you vote for me?

[jotheonah]

Ash seems to think ignoring the case on him will make it go away. Please help me prove him wrong.

[faust]

Faust, you said that you'd prefer we don't exile either of MiX or Ash.  Is there any reason why that you can share right now?

But also, there is like for sure scum off the mathdude wagon, yes? Scum doesn't just pile all of their resources onto a terrible-looking misexile?

The only unflipped people there are you, gkrieg, Space. So assuming you are town, you should believe that there is scum to find here, and I think you townread Space.

I think this logic assumes that the mafia know the traitor, because otherwise having the two mafia on-wagon with a traitor that was already on wagon is not a ridiculous idea.

Yes it is.

[faust]

Also faust has a history of reading me incorrectly and pushing for my misexile, as do I with incorrectly pushing his.

Lol how about you back this up with evidence?

[faust]

Faust, you said that you'd prefer we don't exile either of MiX or Ash.  Is there any reason why that you can share right now?

But also, there is like for sure scum off the mathdude wagon, yes? Scum doesn't just pile all of their resources onto a terrible-looking misexile?

The only unflipped people there are you, gkrieg, Space. So assuming you are town, you should believe that there is scum to find here, and I think you townread Space.

Is this your case against me? I'm the scum with mcmc that decided to stay off-wagon? It was a quick exile, you really think that the two scum didn't both end up on the mathdude wagon?

This is ridiculous. I didn't just "happen" to be a quick exile. Scum made it a quick exile. The dropped the hammer; they had full control.

[faust]

Faust, you said that you'd prefer we don't exile either of MiX or Ash.  Is there any reason why that you can share right now?

But also, there is like for sure scum off the mathdude wagon, yes? Scum doesn't just pile all of their resources onto a terrible-looking misexile?

The only unflipped people there are you, gkrieg, Space. So assuming you are town, you should believe that there is scum to find here, and I think you townread Space.

For you, faust, why is a 1 in 3 shot better than a 1 in 2 shot? For WCD, why is a 1 in 2 based on wagon analysis better than a 1 in 2 based on conflicting claims?

I think ash and MiX are both town.

[faust]

--the rest of the post is not required--

why not policy-vote MiX for the way he handled the EoD1?

As a PR, I think I handled D1 well: there were exactly 2 wagons, one on me and one on the other person, they died instead of me, and my PR was of greater utility than theirs could ever be. The only reason math was hammered is because scum got in my way, and they paid the price. The way EoD1 would've gone is: math claims, people back off, people go for me, I redirect them to another wagon, we 1v1 me and that wagon, then we exile that wagon (even if I have to claim in the process). Saying there was a better thing for me to do is having the hindsight (and math's flip) that I couldn't have in EoD1.

With that out of the way, I'm sure we can agree that voting ash and voting me are 2 very different things? I'm claiming a PR and I have no real counterclaims, ash is executing a plan, something he said D1 that he would rather not be known for, this is much more consistent with scum!ash. Unless you think he can be Vig? If so, why?

Your description of your D1 reminds of when flat-Earthers explain to me why the Earth is flat.  They just so earnestly believe it.

I'm keeping this post for you post-game explanation of why counterclaiming was a good idea.

[Swowl]

Vote Count 2.5:

faust (2): SpaceAnenome, Ashersky
Ashersky (2): Joth, MiX
gkrieg (2): faust, WestCoastDidds
MiX (1): Dylan32
EFHW (1): gkrieg
Not Voting (1): EFHW

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to Exile.
Day 2 ends Saturday, March 6th at 5:55pm Forum Time.

[faust]

Faust, you said that you'd prefer we don't exile either of MiX or Ash.  Is there any reason why that you can share right now?

But also, there is like for sure scum off the mathdude wagon, yes? Scum doesn't just pile all of their resources onto a terrible-looking misexile?

The only unflipped people there are you, gkrieg, Space. So assuming you are town, you should believe that there is scum to find here, and I think you townread Space.

For you, faust, why is a 1 in 3 shot better than a 1 in 2 shot? For WCD, why is a 1 in 2 based on wagon analysis better than a 1 in 2 based on conflicting claims?

I’m not fully convinced, but I’m investing a bit of faith in faust’s “trust me” that we shouldn’t exile Ash today.

Oh I just didn't want to explain my thinking to scum so they would be confused. Now others have explained what it is the ash could have done, so there is no longer any benefit to keeping quiet. Your post reads as though you believe I was claiming some sort of result on ash; that was not the intention.

[jotheonah]

The only way ash and MiX could both be town is if one is lying town. I refuse to reward or normalize town lying. I’m legitimately shocked that this is a controversial opinion.

[faust]

The only way ash and MiX could both be town is if one is lying town. I refuse to reward or normalize town lying. I’m legitimately shocked that this is a controversial opinion.

So you are arguing for a policy vote? I refuse to reward and normalize policy votes.

[jotheonah]

The only way ash and MiX could both be town is if one is lying town. I refuse to reward or normalize town lying. I’m legitimately shocked that this is a controversial opinion.

So you are arguing for a policy vote? I refuse to reward and normalize policy votes.

No. I think one of them is scum (it’s ash). That is based on a prior that town doesn’t lie. If that prior turns out to be wrong because some town player is blatantly playing against their wincon by lying, that will be a bummer but it will be their fault not mine and hopefully they will learn from it on future games.

[jotheonah]

I should say, based in part on that prior. It’s also based on my reads— the case I made earlier and his behavior today.

[WestCoastDidds]

Faust, you said that you'd prefer we don't exile either of MiX or Ash.  Is there any reason why that you can share right now?

But also, there is like for sure scum off the mathdude wagon, yes? Scum doesn't just pile all of their resources onto a terrible-looking misexile?

The only unflipped people there are you, gkrieg, Space. So assuming you are town, you should believe that there is scum to find here, and I think you townread Space.

For you, faust, why is a 1 in 3 shot better than a 1 in 2 shot? For WCD, why is a 1 in 2 based on wagon analysis better than a 1 in 2 based on conflicting claims?

I’m not fully convinced, but I’m investing a bit of faith in faust’s “trust me” that we shouldn’t exile Ash today.

Oh I just didn't want to explain my thinking to scum so they would be confused. Now others have explained what it is the ash could have done, so there is no longer any benefit to keeping quiet. Your post reads as though you believe I was claiming some sort of result on ash; that was not the intention.

Got it!

So, to Josh’s point, if Ash is town what’s with all the claiming? How does this make him town?

[faust]

The only way ash and MiX could both be town is if one is lying town. I refuse to reward or normalize town lying. I’m legitimately shocked that this is a controversial opinion.

So you are arguing for a policy vote? I refuse to reward and normalize policy votes.

No. I think one of them is scum (it’s ash). That is based on a prior that town doesn’t lie. If that prior turns out to be wrong because some town player is blatantly playing against their wincon by lying, that will be a bummer but it will be their fault not mine and hopefully they will learn from it on future games.

I think what you are describing is a policy vote. Otherwise, please let me know how you define policy voting, and how what you are doing differs from that.

I should say, based in part on that prior. It’s also based on my reads— the case I made earlier and his behavior today.

That's all well and fine and you are free to argue that ash is scum, just please don't mix it with arguments that we should exile someone because they're playing the game wrong.

[jotheonah]

Why does ash get special treatment?

When MiX claimed you drew the conclusion that either he was scum or that he was the vig. You said if he doesn’t get counterclaimed he’s IC.

Ash counterclaimed and suddenly you decided that makes him town. Why?

I guess what I’ve been trying to say is, the burden of proof is on you, faust. You’re the one making an extraordinary claim. I’m making the default claim: that when a PR is claimed and counterclaimed, at least one claimant is scum. Explain to me why we should deviate from that default assumption. If you can, I’ll switch my vote to gkreig.

[faust]

So, to Josh’s point, if Ash is town what’s with all the claiming? How does this make him town?

It doesn't; it makes him ash. Honestly the whole thing is NAI to me. I had a slight townread on ash before that and that hasn't gone away, though if some scum decided it would be a good idea to throw all scum votes behind a D1 misexile it would probably be ash.

[faust]

Why does ash get special treatment?

When MiX claimed you drew the conclusion that either he was scum or that he was the vig. You said if he doesn’t get counterclaimed he’s IC.

Ash counterclaimed and suddenly you decided that makes him town. Why?

You know ash's meta. Don't pretend otherwise. He has a history of lying as town. MiX does not. Most people do not, which is why most of the time you can believe what people say.