Let's see, the cards still in the game:
2 dukes
2 captains
2 contessas
3 ambassadors
0 assassins.
my turn. I have 3 coins. hyramgraff has 2.
worst case scenario, hyramgraff has a duke and a captain (though most likely a contessa).
I have a duke and a ambassador. He can't steal my coins.
I play duke
he plays duke
I play duke
he plays duke
I have 9 coins, he has 8 coins.
Scenario A:
I coup, he discards captain
he coup, I discard ambassador
I play duke
he plays duke
I play duke
He plays duke
I coup, I win.
Scenario B:
I coup, he discards duke.
He coup, I discard duke. (if I discard ambassador, he can play captain on me. This will result in him winning).
I foreign aid
He foreign aids
I foreign aid
He foreign aids
I coup, I win.
If he has two captains, and he discards one after my first coup, and I discard ambassador, he wins. however, I know he does not have 2 captains. I know this because:
A) he has never drawn any cards. So he can only have two captains if that is what his initial two cards were.
B) I had a captain at an earlier point in the game
C) UoS never drew cards either, so the captain he has can't be the same one I had.
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I play
Duke. gg
Although, I suppose I could be lying about having a duke and ambassador. But I'm not.
Man, I got lucky to draw that duke to replace my contessa.