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[iguanaiguana]

So basically, we need lynch one scum in three tries, and we win the game. Scum is essentially in the opposite of a triple MyLo situation. They need to get three mislynches through on exactly three players to win the game (or at least get Hydrad to kill one of them for them).

[iguanaiguana]

I guess it looks like Hydrad NOT shooting is still best for us tonight. It doesn't improve our worst case scenario at all and the longer we delay, the more likely that one of our PRs can find scum, or save someone from a NK, or what have you.

[iguanaiguana]

Now, on to reads. I guess my lynch priorities are like this now:

Witherweaver > silver > Joseph > Ashersky > Awaclus.

So Awaclus is the towniest now, and here's why: he claimed last. I don't know exactly how scum got pigeonholed into both claiming VT, but I'm guessing it has to do with being afraid of claiming the same modifier as someone else and getting caught that way. With Awaclus as the last to claim, there's just no way he claims VT as scum. That's way too dangerous for him. And he's smart enough to read the situation and be aware of the horrible odds for scum if he claims VT.

For the same reason that Awaclus' claim is credible, Ash and Joseph's claims are now less credible, because unless both of them are scum, scum!them wouldn't have known that their partner would later claim a PR. I'd go ahead and say that Ash/Joseph is probably an unlikely pairing though. It's unlikely that they both gambit to "accidentally" claim VT in order to win. Well, then again, Ash claimed masons with Gkrieg. So maybe he would try something that stupid.

At any rate, here's the even MORE clinch thing: The most unlikely pairing is probably Ash/Awaclus. Let's not forget about their fight at the beginning of the day. Ash said agreeing with Awaclus was scummy, Awaclus said "some stuff" (I'm not going to try to repeat it, lol). It seemed pretty authentic. It didn't look like scum partners at all. So basically, as long we don't lynch one of these two, and they aren't partners, we win the game. Hey, that's good odds. I'm (almost!) willing to bet the game on those odds.

Finally, why WW? Well here's the thing. This is something I noticed about WW in simply simpler. When he's scum, his fake reads suck. Like, go look up my neighborhood with WW in Simply Simpler where he tried to encourage me to lynch literally the weakest town players in the game. And he's doing the same thing here: picking on people calling them scummy and ignoring others' (and his own) actual scummy behavior.

As for silver, I'm inclined to let him live one more day. I think he's probably scum and his interactions with WW (well, more like WW's ignoring him) has been very partnery, but he has been a lot townier since I called him out on being scum. So as much as I think that he's actually just acting towny out of self-preservation because someone noticed that he's scum for once, I don't think he's the BEST lynch for today.

My lynch pool is basically the top three. I think an Ash or Awaclus lynch is pretty bad.

[iguanaiguana]

Though WW, if you want, go ahead and humour me with one big bright bold and beautiful essay about why you are town here, despite not doing a towny thing the entire game.

Until then,

Vote: WW

[iguanaiguana]

Actually, no,

Unvote

No one should vote for real until all 4 ICs agree on who to lynch. After that, we can all vote and any VT claimer can hammer. This solution gives scum the least control over who we lynch.

For now my "vote" is on WW, but I want to hear from Hydrad, e, and Haddock.

[2.71828.....]

As you outlined earlier, there is absolutely no reason that we need to be afraid of a lynch

I appreciate the gesture, but it is unnecessary. Keep your vote

[Hydrad]

wow now that you say it like that it looks like we are pretty favored.

sounds good to me

[Witherweaver]

Sorry, whose scummy behavior am I ignoring?  I liked rest of the post, but the part about me feels forced and arbitrary.

And in my neighborhood in my scum game, my only goal the was to make you think I was town, not direct your reads one way or the other.

[2.71828.....]

I feel like vote: Joseph

sounds fun right now

[iguanaiguana]

Sorry, whose scummy behavior am I ignoring?  I liked rest of the post, but the part about me feels forced and arbitrary.

And in my neighborhood in my scum game, my only goal the was to make you think I was town, not direct your reads one way or the other.

Well, you know I'm being authentic at this point at least! The person you've commented on very little is silver.

In our neighborhood, you called Roadrunner scummiest, then Hydrad, then Ampharos and Jimmmmm. All of those people were town. It was the scummiest thing you said in our neighborhood. It was a 'pick on the less active/newer players' strategy, and I'm arguing you're doing the  same here, just with less content and more lurking.

[iguanaiguana]

As you outlined earlier, there is absolutely no reason that we need to be afraid of a lynch

I appreciate the gesture, but it is unnecessary. Keep your vote

I am just thinking along the lines of turning our 90-93% chance of winning into far more of a chance of winning than people think.

[2.71828.....]

As you outlined earlier, there is absolutely no reason that we need to be afraid of a lynch

I appreciate the gesture, but it is unnecessary. Keep your vote

I am just thinking along the lines of turning our 90-93% chance of winning into far more of a chance of winning than people think.

Then just vote for joseph and lynch scum.

[iguanaiguana]

As you outlined earlier, there is absolutely no reason that we need to be afraid of a lynch

I appreciate the gesture, but it is unnecessary. Keep your vote

I am just thinking along the lines of turning our 90-93% chance of winning into far more of a chance of winning than people think.

Then just vote for joseph and lynch scum.

Remember when you were saying that about Haddock?

[2.71828.....]

As you outlined earlier, there is absolutely no reason that we need to be afraid of a lynch

I appreciate the gesture, but it is unnecessary. Keep your vote

I am just thinking along the lines of turning our 90-93% chance of winning into far more of a chance of winning than people think.

Then just vote for joseph and lynch scum.

Remember when you were saying that about Haddock?

Ancient history.

[ashersky]

Caught up.  Still a VT.

If 2.7 wasn't confirmed town, he could be me from Village Mafia and yet he'd be MVP as either alignment.

Can't we literally just Lynch any VTs we like in any order and have a very high probability of winning?

I think all VTs should list other VTs in scummy to towny order.  Then the ICs can just decide who to Lynch every day.

My strongest town reads all ended up ICs.

I'd say ss - ww/Awaclus - joseph is my order.

[iguanaiguana]

I like this fiery iguana we have here. Maybe we should call him a dragon rather than an iguana

Everyone's like "We have a high probability of winning" but I wasn't kidding at the start when I was saying I really really really want to win

[ashersky]

VTs: Joseph, Awaclus, ss, ashersky, WW

Haddock: Loud
iguana: Witness
2.7: Insane
Hydrad: Weak

Updated.

All I can say is, what the ploop?  Only Hydrad followed my plan when 2.7 and igu should have as well.

[ashersky]

Hmmm...so do we think the "insane" modifier works on all roles?  So an insane jailkeeper makes his target macho and strongwilled?

Loud is whatever.  Confirmable role.  Weak Vig is just a win.  I don't think Witness matters here, given all PRs are ICs.

Insane is the only worry.  If it doesn't work on non-investigative roles, it's basically a non-issue.

[ashersky]

My gut is Haddock, iguana, and Hydrad should use their powers at night.  2.7 should confirm whether insane messes with his specific role before deciding.  If he could end up strengthening scum by doing the opposite of whatever it is he does, (or killing town by being an insane doc or something that kills), he should not use his power.

[Hydrad]

My gut is Haddock, iguana, and Hydrad should use their powers at night.  2.7 should confirm whether insane messes with his specific role before deciding.  If he could end up strengthening scum by doing the opposite of whatever it is he does, (or killing town by being an insane doc or something that kills), he should not use his power.

oh? You know i'm pretty much going to kill a townie. I'm suuuper bad at finding scum with vig.

[Hydrad]

My gut is Haddock, iguana, and Hydrad should use their powers at night.  2.7 should confirm whether insane messes with his specific role before deciding.  If he could end up strengthening scum by doing the opposite of whatever it is he does, (or killing town by being an insane doc or something that kills), he should not use his power.

oh? You know i'm pretty much going to kill a townie. I'm suuuper bad at finding scum with vig.

actually maybe I can just roll a die. That might work out better then me trusting myself.

[ashersky]

So basically, we need lynch one scum in three tries, and we win the game. Scum is essentially in the opposite of a triple MyLo situation. They need to get three mislynches through on exactly three players to win the game (or at least get Hydrad to kill one of them for them).

I think you are looking at this wrong.

We have to catch 2 scum in 5 players.  We have two mislynches to burn.  The rest is ancillary to the whole thing.  Literally, the 4 PRs could do nothing and they're still ICs.  Just think of the setup as 4 ICs, 3 VTs, 2 scum.

I laid out how I think powers should play out.  I'm thinking Hydrad shooting is best.  Worst!Hydrad scenario:

D1 mislynch VT
N1 vig VT + NK PR
D2 mislynch VT
N2...Hydrad has 2 VTs to choose from.  He has a 100% chance of killing scum (and himself).
D3 LYLO with 1 vs 2

That's the "worst case" in this.  It basically guarantees scum has to try to kill Hydrad on N1.

This is all assuming none of the VTs are lying town (WW...?).

[Hydrad]

So basically, we need lynch one scum in three tries, and we win the game. Scum is essentially in the opposite of a triple MyLo situation. They need to get three mislynches through on exactly three players to win the game (or at least get Hydrad to kill one of them for them).

I think you are looking at this wrong.

We have to catch 2 scum in 5 players.  We have two mislynches to burn.  The rest is ancillary to the whole thing.  Literally, the 4 PRs could do nothing and they're still ICs.  Just think of the setup as 4 ICs, 3 VTs, 2 scum.

I laid out how I think powers should play out.  I'm thinking Hydrad shooting is best.  Worst!Hydrad scenario:

D1 mislynch VT
N1 vig VT + NK PR
D2 mislynch VT
N2...Hydrad has 2 VTs to choose from.  He has a 100% chance of killing scum (and himself).
D3 LYLO with 1 vs 2

That's the "worst case" in this.  It basically guarantees scum has to try to kill Hydrad on N1.

This is all assuming none of the VTs are lying town (WW...?).

ah sounds good!

[Joseph2302]

This is all assuming none of the VTs are lying town (WW...?).

Hope not, this had better not be like my RMM30 QT again....

[ashersky]

This is all assuming none of the VTs are lying town (WW...?).

Hope not, this had better not be like my RMM30 QT again....

It's been a trend lately, so I wanted to explicitly rule it out.

Lying as town is definitely far more skippable than you think.  So skip it.  Please.