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[Robz888]

You have to see the problem here: you are as likely to be scum as anyone else, and the theory you're advancing is easily exploited in any case, and especially in the case that you are scum.

[SpaceAnemone]

There is no way I would ever want to lynch either of you today. In that case we will be faced with another "two-player-lynchpool-LyLo" and I will never be 100% sure about either one of you. I much prefer just one of these, with an almost guaranteed win afterwards and the same situation with more info in the worst case.

Consider also that we're putting an awful pressure on teamlyle if we go the lylo route. He's said he doesn't feel confident doing reads on people, and yet we're subjecting him to being the IC with the deciding vote. I dislike that especially because you and I have probably not pleased him a great deal by aiding in his early death, and because Robz is a very good arguer, so I feel like any OMGUS sentiments will not be on town's side.

[Calamitas]

Having me a as scum is probably the only possibility where scum might assume a no-lynch as the likeliest scenario (fron your perspective that should have a 1/3 probability).

But either way, even if one of robz/SA is the rb, our chances don't get worse. In case we hit the scum in the other group and that one isn't the rb, the game won't be lost but would result in a final LyLo with robz and SA. Same lynchpool, just later with more info.

[Calamitas]

There is no way I would ever want to lynch either of you today. In that case we will be faced with another "two-player-lynchpool-LyLo" and I will never be 100% sure about either one of you. I much prefer just one of these, with an almost guaranteed win afterwards and the same situation with more info in the worst case.

Consider also that we're putting an awful pressure on teamlyle if we go the lylo route. He's said he doesn't feel confident doing reads on people, and yet we're subjecting him to being the IC with the deciding vote. I dislike that especially because you and I have probably not pleased him a great deal by aiding in his early death, and because Robz is a very good arguer, so I feel like any OMGUS sentiments will not be on town's side.

We will have that LyLo at some point anyways. Even if we lynch the scum out of robz/SA there is one left to pick off.

[Robz888]

There is no way I would ever want to lynch either of you today. In that case we will be faced with another "two-player-lynchpool-LyLo" and I will never be 100% sure about either one of you. I much prefer just one of these, with an almost guaranteed win afterwards and the same situation with more info in the worst case.

Consider also that we're putting an awful pressure on teamlyle if we go the lylo route. He's said he doesn't feel confident doing reads on people, and yet we're subjecting him to being the IC with the deciding vote. I dislike that especially because you and I have probably not pleased him a great deal by aiding in his early death, and because Robz is a very good arguer, so I feel like any OMGUS sentiments will not be on town's side.

OMG SO scummy. Please, someone, tell me you see this.

I actually think Calamitas's plan makes sense, except it is ridiculously easy to game if Calamitas is on the scum team (and even if he's not, really).

[Calamitas]

There is no way I would ever want to lynch either of you today. In that case we will be faced with another "two-player-lynchpool-LyLo" and I will never be 100% sure about either one of you. I much prefer just one of these, with an almost guaranteed win afterwards and the same situation with more info in the worst case.

Consider also that we're putting an awful pressure on teamlyle if we go the lylo route. He's said he doesn't feel confident doing reads on people, and yet we're subjecting him to being the IC with the deciding vote. I dislike that especially because you and I have probably not pleased him a great deal by aiding in his early death, and because Robz is a very good arguer, so I feel like any OMGUS sentiments will not be on town's side.

OMG SO scummy. Please, someone, tell me you see this.

I actually think Calamitas's plan makes sense, except it is ridiculously easy to game if Calamitas is on the scum team (and even if he's not, really).

It isn't gameable, just the advantage would be gone. In case the rb is in {robz, SA} lynching out of that group is as good as no-lynch and otherwise no-lynch is strictly better.

[Robz888]

Having me a as scum is probably the only possibility where scum might assume a no-lynch as the likeliest scenario (fron your perspective that should have a 1/3 probability).

But either way, even if one of robz/SA is the rb, our chances don't get worse. In case we hit the scum in the other group and that one isn't the rb, the game won't be lost but would result in a final LyLo with robz and SA. Same lynchpool, just later with more info.

Well right, but it's WIFOM. If you say we should do it this way because the RB is in the other set, that means we should do it the other way, if you're scum, because the RB is not in the other set!

[SpaceAnemone]

We will have that LyLo at some point anyways. Even if we lynch the scum out of robz/SA there is one left to pick off.

Not necessarily! If we lynch the scum in your three-person set, and that's the RB (which we mostly agree is the most likely outcome), then Robz and I just kill each other in the night and town wins outright with no lylo.

I agree that lynching between me and Robz looks risky to you at the moment, but I'd really like you, WW and mcmc to consider targeter re-reads on each other.

And with that suggestion, I should really go to sleep.

[SpaceAnemone]

Huh.. I'm not getting PPE messages just now, sorry. Anyway, good night!

[Robz888]

There is no way I would ever want to lynch either of you today. In that case we will be faced with another "two-player-lynchpool-LyLo" and I will never be 100% sure about either one of you. I much prefer just one of these, with an almost guaranteed win afterwards and the same situation with more info in the worst case.

Consider also that we're putting an awful pressure on teamlyle if we go the lylo route. He's said he doesn't feel confident doing reads on people, and yet we're subjecting him to being the IC with the deciding vote. I dislike that especially because you and I have probably not pleased him a great deal by aiding in his early death, and because Robz is a very good arguer, so I feel like any OMGUS sentiments will not be on town's side.

OMG SO scummy. Please, someone, tell me you see this.

I actually think Calamitas's plan makes sense, except it is ridiculously easy to game if Calamitas is on the scum team (and even if he's not, really).

It isn't gameable, just the advantage would be gone. In case the rb is in {robz, SA} lynching out of that group is as good as no-lynch and otherwise no-lynch is strictly better.

You're saying it's better to lynch in the set that has the RB. In the case that you are scum, the RB is absolutely Space. If you're not scum, the RB could still be Space, because scum could have anticipated this situation.

[Robz888]

This theorizing is actually making me dizzy.

Let's say it's Space as the Goon and mcmc as the RB (the scenario you think is likely, yes Calamitas?). If we No Lynch, scum blocks me and shoots you, let's say. Then let's say we (teamlyle, WW, and me) lynch mcmc correctly, he flips scum RB. We go to night and I shoot Space and we win. Yay!

So to prevent that, instead, scum blocks and shoots me. Space is confirmed scum tomorrow, you lynch Space, mcmc kills you or WW, and teamlyle gets to decide between the survivor and mcmc. Teamlyle, who can't ask questions or do anything except vote.

Isn't that worse?

[Robz888]

Yeah, that's way, way, way worse. I'm not afraid of leaving it up to teamlyle (as Space seems to be), but teamlyle will have a harder time making the decision than anyone else, given that he can't ask questions.

[Calamitas]

Oh dang, missed that the vig would be able to shoot in case we lynch the rb out of {robz, SA}. So yeah, if we believe {SA, robz} is more likely to contain the rb we should lynch there today. But I still don't think that is the case since it is quite an assumption for scum that
1. Someone drafts this plan
2. Convinces everyone else to follow through
But anyways, going to bed now. Too late for me to think clear enough for this.

[Robz888]

Oh dang, missed that the vig would be able to shoot in case we lynch the rb out of {robz, SA}. So yeah, if we believe {SA, robz} is more likely to contain the rb we should lynch there today. But I still don't think that is the case since it is quite an assumption for scum that
1. Someone drafts this plan
2. Convinces everyone else to follow through
But anyways, going to bed now. Too late for me to think clear enough for this.

Wait, but even if it's the other way, the way you think, did you read my post? Scum could just not do that and leave it up to a severely disadvantaged teamlyle.

[Calamitas]

Yeah, that's way, way, way worse. I'm not afraid of leaving it up to teamlyle (as Space seems to be), but teamlyle will have a harder time making the decision than anyone else, given that he can't ask questions.

Teamlyle will make the final call in any given scenario. Assume we lynch SA correctly today, in that case we will still have a LyLo with teamlyle giving the final call. (Except SA flips rb and you hit the final scum).

[mcmcsalot]

Now again, but a bit more concise now:
Currently it is public knowledge that {Sa, robz} contains exactly one scum and exactly one vig.
Additionally it is known that {Calamitas, mcm, WW} contains 1 scum.
The scum in the latter group is overwhelmingly more likely to be the rb since scum wouldn't want to give the vig a shot if the fakeclaimed vig gets lynched today.
In case of a no-lynch, scum must reduce either playerpool.

There are two options then:
- The vig gets killed.
- Someone out of {Cala, mcm, WW} gets killed

In case of the first scenario we know the other one to be scum. We lynch him and are faced with a 2 player lynchpool.

In case of the second scenario, we lynch out of the two survivors out of {mcm, Cala, WW}. We have a 50% chance of hitting scum there. In case we hit the real scum, we have most likely hit the rb. In that case, if scum doesn't possess the switch anymore, the surviving vig kills the last scum (that one is confirmed) and the game is won.

yea i think this is smart but i need to run some other scenario's in my head. The only thing i can think of that gives me pause is that we almost currently have a 50% chance of winning. What you are saying get us to a 50% lynchpool in the first scenario and the second scenario. We currently have a 50% lynchpool between robz and space and if we get it right(we have to get a 50% guess right eventually) then scum will kill the townie of robz/space which we didn't lynch and we are left with me/cal/wither and while each townie will have a 50% we would need those townies to both get it right.

So in other words if we guess now between robz/space we have to guess again tomorrow. If we no lynch, tomorrow we open in one of the two scenarios cal laid out ans only have to guess once.

however if we no lynch we are leaving the game in the hands of teamlyle to make the 50/50 vote.

Lets just for the ease of explaination pretend that the remaining scum are me and robz and play the scenarios out with names

SCENARIO A (vig gets killed)
We no lynch and robz/me kill space.
Day 5 opens with robz/me/cal/ww and cal/ww know robz is scum so they lynch him.
I night kill cal and we open the day with me/ww. We would both vote eachother and make our cases and teamlyle would make the final vote.

SCENARIO B (one of ww/cal/me gets killed)
We no lynch and robz/me kill cal.
Day 5 opens with robz/me/space/ww. We would know one of Robz/space was scum and one of me/ww is scum.
Town has to make a correct 50/50 guess now and lets say we do and town lynches me. Robz then nightkills ww who would be ic.
Day opens with Robz/space who have to make their cases and have teamlyle decide.

So both of these scenarios get us to a 50/50 where a living town and living scum have to make cases to teamlyle. This may not be the worst idea in the world though i'm not sure i love it. Though I am not fully aware if scum can roleblock and nightkill at the same time. If they can't scenario B can go differently.

SCENARIO B.2 (we lynch mafia roleblocker on Day 5)(for ease of explanation pretend I am the mafia roleblocker and robz other scum)
We no lynch and robz/me kill cal.
Day 5 opens with robz/me/space/ww. We would know one of Robz/space was scum and one of me/ww is scum.
Town has to make a correct 50/50 guess now and lets say we do and town lynches me.
Robz then nightkills ww but Space would be able to vig Robz and Town Win.

SCENARIO B.3 (we other scum on Day 5)(for ease of explanation pretend I am the mafia roleblocker and robz other scum)
We no lynch and robz/me kill cal.
Day 5 opens with robz/me/space/ww. We would know one of Robz/space was scum and one of me/ww is scum.
Town has to make a correct 50/50 guess now and lets say we do and town lynches Robz.
I then Night kill space and if I can also roleblock then we open day 6 with me/ww making cases to teamlyle for a 50/50
If I can't also roleblock then space shoots with a 50/50 guess of me/ww.
Note if Space doesn't shoot here Day 6 opens with me/ww making cases to teamlyle for a 50/50 vote.

PPE 27 I hope this isn't redundant

[Robz888]

If we lynch Space now... this will be interesting.

If I shoot scum, we win (1/3 chance).

If I shoot town (2/3) chance, it's up to teamlyle.

If I don't shoot at all, it's a more traditional MYLO.

Do you think I should definitely even shoot? There's a 2/3 chance I make things a lot worse...

[Calamitas]

Mcm, will respond tomorrow since phone posting and it being 4:26 for me. Please just don't lynch anyone up until then.

[Robz888]

*if Space is the RB. If Space isnt, it doesn't matter. Well, maybe they won't block me, because they would want me to kill town probably.

[Robz888]

Mcm, will respond tomorrow since phone posting and it being 4:26 for me. Please just don't lynch anyone up until then.

That's fine, get some sleep. This is exhausting.

[Robz888]

I thought of something else, though! If scum has the 1-night switch, can they use it to nullify teamlyle's shot? Hey mods, can scum shoot and switch in the same night? And does it work to keep a Restless Spirit rendered obsolete through the next voting period? Because then we can't afford to let it go to that. They could have the switch still, couldn't they?

[Robz888]

I thought of something else, though! If scum has the 1-night switch, can they use it to nullify teamlyle's shot? Hey mods, can scum shoot and switch in the same night? And does it work to keep a Restless Spirit rendered obsolete through the next voting period? Because then we can't afford to let it go to that. They could have the switch still, couldn't they?

teamlyle's vote**, not shot. Sorry, brain running 100 miles a minute here

[Calamitas]

If we lynch Space now... this will be interesting.

If I shoot scum, we win (1/3 chance).

If I shoot town (2/3) chance, it's up to teamlyle.

If I don't shoot at all, it's a more traditional MYLO.

Do you think I should definitely even shoot? There's a 2/3 chance I make things a lot worse...

You definitely shoot. Definitely.
Assume you don't shoot anf you get killed. We have
{mcm, WW, Cala} surviving with teamlyle as additional vote. I think we should actually no-lynch there because the advantage of a two-player-lynchpool in comparison to a three-player-lynchpool is too big to be balanced off by more discussion.

If we are not speaking of no-lynch but off a vig shoot with an additional 1/3 chance of winning this becomes undebatable. We would have a 5/6 chance of winning if you both would use random.org for your picks, an even better one with you using your brains.

[Robz888]

Mcmc, your post was very redundant, which is good! It's basically the exact same thing I went through in my head.

I am really worried the No Lynch option could very much play into the hands of scum at worst, and at best puts the game in teamlyle's hands, which is bad for a number of reasons and maybe just like super duper bad if the switch works the way I think it does?

[Robz888]

If we lynch Space now... this will be interesting.

If I shoot scum, we win (1/3 chance).

If I shoot town (2/3) chance, it's up to teamlyle.

If I don't shoot at all, it's a more traditional MYLO.

Do you think I should definitely even shoot? There's a 2/3 chance I make things a lot worse...

You definitely shoot. Definitely.
Assume you don't shoot anf you get killed. We have
{mcm, WW, Cala} surviving with teamlyle as additional vote. I think we should actually no-lynch there because the advantage of a two-player-lynchpool in comparison to a three-player-lynchpool is too big to be balanced off by more discussion.

If we are not speaking of no-lynch but off a vig shoot with an additional 1/3 chance of winning this becomes undebatable. We would have a 5/6 chance of winning if you both would use random.org for your picks, an even better one with you using your brains.

You are right about that, what about the switch? And are you trying to engineer a teamlyle ending in which you've switched him to VT and you just win?