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[shraeye]

This would fit wth the AHoppy/nkirbit/theorel team I proposed above.  All 3 are currently on xeiron.

[shraeye]

In fact, I think I am getting more confident in AHoppy being scum here, nkirbit as a likely partner.

[shraeye]

Yeah, nkirbit jumping to the mail-mi wagon day1; that is really what gave it legs over the much more convincing AHoppy case (a case that nkirbit said he agreed with except for one reservation...which was removed eventually).

I think those are the causes of the misdirection day1. 

Vote: AHoppy

[shraeye]

That's L-1

[Archetype]

Vote Count 2.5

xeiron (3) theorel, AHoppy, nkirbit
AHoppy (4) Twistedarcher, Eevee, xeiron, shraeye
Not Voting (1) chairs

With 8 alive you need 5 to lynch. The day will end on July 23rd.

[Eevee]

And now we just need chairs to hammer!

[nkirbit]

Well, Ahoppy is correct in that I did visit TA last night.  Can you confirm this, TA?  You should be able to.

[Twistedarcher]

Confirmed

[nkirbit]

Ugh, I really don't like this.  I know I'm town, and feel like if even if we're correct here, I'm the obvious mislynch target tomorrow.

[AHoppy]

well I wish town the best of luck.  sorry I've played this game so poorly.  I hope you guys can survive tomorrow.  It's a bummer that it had to be me.  I'm sure you guys will regret this.

[nkirbit]

Wait, hold on, don't hammer yet.  I'm working on something.

[nkirbit]

TA:  Did you get a letter from me?

[nkirbit]

well I wish town the best of luck.  sorry I've played this game so poorly.  I hope you guys can survive tomorrow.  It's a bummer that it had to be me.  I'm sure you guys will regret this.

This doesn't feel very towny to me.  I'm still deciding, but this doesn't help Ahoppy.

[shraeye]

well I wish town the best of luck.  sorry I've played this game so poorly.  I hope you guys can survive tomorrow.  It's a bummer that it had to be me.  I'm sure you guys will regret this.

Pretty much only if you're scum is there a tomorrow.  This whole bit sounds really insincere.

[Twistedarcher]

And now we just need chairs to hammer!

This is the scummiest post of the game!

No consideration of Ahoppy's claim, whatsoever. Just a "one more vote!"

Trying to push chairs, who's been really jumpy with bandwagons, to hop on.

This post screams "End the game now and Eevee/Xeiron / whomever win!"

Goes against everything I've thought but wow wow wow this post makes me so suspicious.

[Twistedarcher]

TA:  Did you get a letter from me?

Yes. Want me to post it?

[nkirbit]

If you could, please.  I was just confused by the "Nkirbit would make sense" part of the following message.  You would have know, had you gotten the message.  I know that you could have been trying to shield my role, but it's possible that you didn't actually get my message.. I thought it was worth clearing up, though.

I can confirm that I was targeted by one player last night. Nkirbit would make sense.

Nkirbit claiming will not help with reads. Nkirbit, don't claim.

[Twistedarcher]

You realize that me post your letter amounts to you item claiming, right?

I'm not sure what information you want me to withhold / what you want me to post..

[Twistedarcher]

And yes, I was just trying to not out your role.

[nkirbit]

Yeah.  I'm confident you got it now, so don't bother.

I still am worried about Shraeye's views about me for sure being Ahoppy's partner.  I unvoted Ahoppy because I was uncomfortable with Xeiron voting him (as I was day1 with Xeiron voting mail-mi, and regrettably didn't follow through on), and am voting Xeiron now because he was by far my top read, although I think his defense against my points was actually solid.

I'm assuming we need three consecutive lynches to win, and if lynching Ahoppy today will inevitably lead to myself being lynched tomorrow, you can see why I'm hesitating here.  I do think Ahoppy is a good lynch today, but we don't just need a good lynch today.  We need a good lynch today, and tomorrow, and the day after, and I'm worried about it.

But, Ahoppy being scum makes so much sense, and we're going to have to lynch him eventually to win (if he's scum).  So, Intent to hammer Ahoppy.  I don't think we're actually waiting for him to claim anything at this point, but I'm going to give anyone who has a cop-claim or something like that time to step forward.

[Twistedarcher]

My skin is crawling since Eevee's most recent post that we're really wrong...but man, this is what I've thought is the correct lynch for awhile now. I'm just worried it's something like Xeiron/Eevee/someone, could even be you, or Shraeye, or someone. Ugh

[nkirbit]

For some reason, I've had a sinking feeling about a TA/Shraeye/? scumteam all day.  But I've gone through and done re-reads looking for evidence, and can find nothing, and don't want to play this game based on my feelings.

And yes, of course I'm worried about a Xeiron/Eevee/? scumteam where the ? isn't Ahoppy.

[Twistedarcher]

If Ahoppy flips scum, I'd be interested to look at Chairs, who has jumped on literally every wagon of the game, with the exception of this one. (this may be less true than I think it is, but that's just my impression). Theorel would probably be my best guess for Ahoppy's partner, though. I think Ahoppy flipping scum would also clear Xeiron.

[nkirbit]

In case you were wondering where I got this from.

Paper makes one of the following powers.

1-shot Doublevoter
1-shot Mailman
1-shot Tracker

You have to guess what it does after you have guessed that paper can be used alone.

I guessed incorectly 1-shot Mailman.

1-shot Doublevoter would make sense with Shraeyes "I think this power is town" claim.
It also makes with Shraeyes reads on chairs.

Chairs, can you claim if you sent paper to someone N0?

So, Xeiron here doesn't even know if the paper causes 1-shot doublevoter or 1-shot tracker.  He doesn't know that Shraeye was sent paper N0.  He correctly guesses that paper gives doublevoter, not tracker (although I guess that makes more sense?) and correctly guesses that this is what Shraeye was referring to when he said he had a power that was "powerful for scum".  It's another coincidence for Xeiron, and there have been a lot.

Oh. At the time, I was too frustrated that xeiron had revealed this to notice that jump.  that is a pretty big jump based on the information that xeiron claims to have had.  This lends support to the theory that xeiron does indeed have doublevote, which shows that he chose not to hammer AHoppy when he was at 3 votes, even though he now says he's ok with lynching AHoppy.

also while typing up his read and thinking about things, I was wondering if him posting that my power was more of a warning to his scummates.  That seems like a crazy conspiracy theory, but after xeiron says that I have doublevote, Eevee immediately unvotes AHoppy.  That could implicate xeiron/AHoppy/xxx as the team, xxx could be Eevee, but I don't think that's as necessary as AHoppy being a partner.

Let me explain step by step my thinking behind guessing Shraeye has paper.
I was at that time thinking Ta, Ahoppy, and Theorel as the scumteam (I do that now as well, but I have been some to and fro in the meantime).
Shraeye said that he had a item that was so powerful it had to come from town. If my scumteam theory is correct that would mean from Chairs, Nkirbit or Eevee. I knew chairs could send a potetial powerful item, and I knew chairs flavor-investigated me while he sent it to me. I also knew Chairs flavor-investigated Shraeye N0. It would be natural for chairs to send an item to the one he investigated, as that is the one he had (would have after the night) the most information on.
Since it made sence both for Chairs to send paper to Shraeye, and for Shraeye to recieve paper from Chairs, I guessed that is what happened. It is a jump, but not a big one.

Can someone explain this to me?  I just re-read Chairs, and nowhere did he say that he flavor investigated Xeiron.  How would Xeiron know this?  Am I missing where Chairs said he flavor investigated Xeiron?

I have to head to the airport.  I'll be back in a couple of hours.

[chairs]

In case you were wondering where I got this from.

Paper makes one of the following powers.

1-shot Doublevoter
1-shot Mailman
1-shot Tracker

You have to guess what it does after you have guessed that paper can be used alone.

I guessed incorectly 1-shot Mailman.

1-shot Doublevoter would make sense with Shraeyes "I think this power is town" claim.
It also makes with Shraeyes reads on chairs.

Chairs, can you claim if you sent paper to someone N0?

So, Xeiron here doesn't even know if the paper causes 1-shot doublevoter or 1-shot tracker.  He doesn't know that Shraeye was sent paper N0.  He correctly guesses that paper gives doublevoter, not tracker (although I guess that makes more sense?) and correctly guesses that this is what Shraeye was referring to when he said he had a power that was "powerful for scum".  It's another coincidence for Xeiron, and there have been a lot.

Oh. At the time, I was too frustrated that xeiron had revealed this to notice that jump.  that is a pretty big jump based on the information that xeiron claims to have had.  This lends support to the theory that xeiron does indeed have doublevote, which shows that he chose not to hammer AHoppy when he was at 3 votes, even though he now says he's ok with lynching AHoppy.

also while typing up his read and thinking about things, I was wondering if him posting that my power was more of a warning to his scummates.  That seems like a crazy conspiracy theory, but after xeiron says that I have doublevote, Eevee immediately unvotes AHoppy.  That could implicate xeiron/AHoppy/xxx as the team, xxx could be Eevee, but I don't think that's as necessary as AHoppy being a partner.

Let me explain step by step my thinking behind guessing Shraeye has paper.
I was at that time thinking Ta, Ahoppy, and Theorel as the scumteam (I do that now as well, but I have been some to and fro in the meantime).
Shraeye said that he had a item that was so powerful it had to come from town. If my scumteam theory is correct that would mean from Chairs, Nkirbit or Eevee. I knew chairs could send a potetial powerful item, and I knew chairs flavor-investigated me while he sent it to me. I also knew Chairs flavor-investigated Shraeye N0. It would be natural for chairs to send an item to the one he investigated, as that is the one he had (would have after the night) the most information on.
Since it made sence both for Chairs to send paper to Shraeye, and for Shraeye to recieve paper from Chairs, I guessed that is what happened. It is a jump, but not a big one.

Can someone explain this to me?  I just re-read Chairs, and nowhere did he say that he flavor investigated Xeiron.  How would Xeiron know this?  Am I missing where Chairs said he flavor investigated Xeiron?

I have to head to the airport.  I'll be back in a couple of hours.

As a sharing flavor cop, when I investigate somebody they know it.


Somebody mentioned something about how I haven't been on this wagon - I think I've been pretty clear all day that I have, in fact, been on this wagon, but I've been markedly reserved because I want to ensure that we're right.

I'll give it another hour or so in case anybody else has something they want to say before we push this button, but intent to hammer as well.