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[ashersky]

Assuming MiX shot, he targeted a bad guy with bulletproof?  Seems unlikely he would forget to put in an order.

Glad I can still read gkrieg correctly.

What huddled group was faust whispering to?

[faust]

Assuming MiX shot, he targeted a bad guy with bulletproof?  Seems unlikely he would forget to put in an order.

There would have been a decent argument to be made for not shooting I think. But, it's also possible he shot a Traitor (or Bulletproof scum I guess, but noone in their right mind would pick Bulletproof).

What huddled group was faust whispering to?

I don't know! My correspondence with huddled groups is news to me too.

[faust]

ashersky, would you care to explain your vigilante claim now?

[ashersky]

ashersky, would you care to explain your vigilante claim now?

So, a few things.

1) I never claimed to be a vigilante.
2) I am happy to explain my counterclaim.  To do, I need some quotes:

I forgot that the Traitor has a 1-shot BP. Might be worth counterclaiming then I suppose. It doesn't matter because there will be no counterclaim.

I read this post from faust and immediately decided to counterclaim.  I, as many others here would probably agree, absolutely felt that I could not allow faust making such an omnipotent statement to go unchallenged and unproven wrong.  The post rubbed me entirely the wrong way, so I decided immediately, without reading the rest of the thread.

I then read the rest of the thread, saw no other counterclaim to that time, and posted:

I’ll bite.

I am counter-claiming MiX.

vote: faust

I did exactly what faust said would not happen, thereby proving that faust is not infallible.  That's all there is to it, really, as far as my motivation goes.

[ashersky]

Further:

Were I claiming vigilante, I would have used those words at some point, would have claimed a target (such as mcmc), etc.

Also, I pointed out that I tried to aim the vigilante shot at MiX:

If it helps, I attempted to aim the vig shot at MiX in my QT last night.  I am not lying.

This will be proven post-game when QTs are made public.

[ashersky]

Now, as to the "good/bad" play argument; there is no right answer, only opinions.  Here are a few:

--had mafia mistaken my claim as a vigilante claim, as faust appears to have done, they may have been hesitant about which claimant to NK.  That may have saved MiX for another night.  This did not come to pass.

--regardless, I do believe that MiX believed my claim for what it was, and would not have shot me last night.  That means my claim improved his odds of shooting a mafia member at night by removing one town member from his potential pool.

--the claim did inspire at least a few players to take a look at other players instead of either MiX or myself, thereby producing more minutes of study on possible mafia members and not town members.

I'm fine with being exiled now, if that's the consensus.  Remember that two of you six are not aligned with the rest, though.  Let me know if you prefer my vote be on or off wagon.

[ashersky]

Assuming MiX shot, he targeted a bad guy with bulletproof?  Seems unlikely he would forget to put in an order.

There would have been a decent argument to be made for not shooting I think. But, it's also possible he shot a Traitor (or Bulletproof scum I guess, but noone in their right mind would pick Bulletproof).

I fully agree with you that choosing BP is not optimal.

[faust]

faust making such an omnipotent statement

I think the word you are looking for is omniscient 

[faust]

Vote: Dylan32

Although I am also quite tempted to vote ash.

[jotheonah]

So MiX is 2 for 2 hitting scum. Good for him. Do we think there’s any chance he breadcrumbed his target? That’s probably the first thing I’ll look for on a re-read.

[faust]

So MiX is 2 for 2 hitting scum. Good for him. Do we think there’s any chance he breadcrumbed his target? That’s probably the first thing I’ll look for on a re-read.

Why do you asssume MiX shot at all? He said this:

Says the guy that wanted to essentially hammer the vig. Honestly, I'm no longer useful, since one of the scum has a 1-shot bulletproof, and the bodyguard's dead. I'm just an IC...a MIC if you will.

Now granted, there is an amount of WIFOM involved, but shooting was never a great idea at this stage of the game.

[jotheonah]

Maybe you’re right. My own read of MiX’s personality is that he’d take the shot.

In retrospect, we should have directed his shot or  made him claim his target. Then we’d have a chance of having caught  scum today.

ash, all I’ll say is that if you’re honest with yourself about your play yesterday you’ll see that the bad outweighed the good— in addition to the possible benefits you listed, the detriment was that youcc be rested an amorphous amount of noise that pre-occupied the town and kept us from focusing on scum hunting. All for the sake of contradicting an off-hand comment from faust. I think the claim is anti town for that reason alone.

What I’m trying to figure out is whether it’s actually something scum!ash does.

[WestCoastDidds]

Joth, I 100% think MiX takes the shot! I’ll reread the latter part of D2 when I get a chance.

[faust]

Glad I can still read gkrieg correctly.

I am kind of curious whether this is an attempt to spin the narrative or just something ash thought but never shared. I don't think ash gave a read on gkrieg beyond like early D1. In fact I got the distinct impression that he agreed with some of the things I pointed out.

[SpaceAnemone]

Maybe you’re right. My own read of MiX’s personality is that he’d take the shot.

I completely agree with this, and think he will have taken a shot.

Joth, I 100% think MiX takes the shot! I’ll reread the latter part of D2 when I get a chance.

Since MiX credited me a lot with his choice of shot for N1, I tried to be clear that faust was my top scumread going into N2. Unfortunately, the thread locked a couple of minutes earlier than I was expecting, so I didn't get to post that "last thoughts" collection I was working on in time, but I think my vote being on faust and my refusal to take the hammer at least helped underline that it was a genuine scumread.

Of course, MiX is a law unto himself, so maybe there's a crumb I missed pointing to someone entirely different. For now, though, I think if he did shoot it would be faust (or ash on the outside), and if he didn't, he'll be utterly perplexed that we'd even consider he would take a shot, and there's probably not an in-between option :-P

[faust]

I think if he did shoot it would be faust

This is wild. you are aware that MiX townread me, yes?

[faust]

Some notes as I do a reread (probably more of a re-skim).

- we get some very early pressure on mcmc by Space and Robz. That is kind of the sort of thing that scum want to be a part of. But I never goes anywhere.
- we have a little joth wagon of {mcmc, faust, ash}. I find it vaguely notable that ash and mcmc are voting together here; if ash is scum I could imagine him following a "all scum on the same wagon" sort of approach.
- Space later doubles down on the mcmc vote. This is a point where it would have been very easy to abandon a bus - Space was the only person on mcmc anyways, and discussion had moved elsewhere.
- as of vote count 1.4 we have 2 sort-of alternative wagons for the mathdude thing, maybe. One is Space, supported by mathdude and Robz (i.e. all town), the other is EFHW, supported by Didds and MiX (where Didds could still be scum)
- gkrieg starts the MiX wagon, and Didds jumps immediately. I feel like Didds did a lot of convenient agreeing
- when Space joins the MiX wagon, they're still very open to going for mathdude. Seems like scum could have taken a stronger stance here. After all, scum already got what they want - mathdude outed as a PR.

That's like, notable D1 stuff.

[ashersky]

ash, all I’ll say is that if you’re honest with yourself about your play yesterday you’ll see that the bad outweighed the good— in addition to the possible benefits you listed, the detriment was that youcc be rested an amorphous amount of noise that pre-occupied the town and kept us from focusing on scum hunting. All for the sake of contradicting an off-hand comment from faust. I think the claim is anti town for that reason alone.

What I’m trying to figure out is whether it’s actually something scum!ash does.

I feel like I disagree here, but I think defining the bad and the good are such subjective things when it comes to a specific day in a specific game.  There's also the fact that had things gone differently, the balance of "good" and "bad" things would also change, and probably in a different way for each person.

Like, say in a best case scenario, MiX shot mafia that wasn't bulletproof AND mafia shot me instead of MiX at least in part because of my play.  Then I believe even you would say that the "good" outweighed the "bad" for the day.

That there are multiple possible outcomes/universes at each decision point is what makes certain plays good, even when they turn out to be bad.  You weigh the possible outcomes, decide if the good ones are worth the risk of the bad ones, and go for it, or not.

All in all, I feel like the result in this universe was a wash.

[jotheonah]

FYI "youcc be rested an amorphous" is an autocorrect mess that should have been "you generated an enormous"

[WestCoastDidds]

faust, your argument that appealed to me yesterday was that it was likely that at least one scum was off the mathdude wagon.  It wasn't gkrieg, and I know it wasn't me.  That leaves Space.

How are you feeling about them?

[EFHW]

Glad to see we're back. Swamped lately, but should surface soon.

[Swowl]

Vote Count 3.0:

Dylan32 (1): faust
Not Voting (6): WestCoastDidds, EFHW, SpaceAnenome, Joth, Ashersky, Dylan32

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to Exile.
Day 3 starts now and ends Monday, March 15th at 6:30pm Forum Time.

[ashersky]

I just want to lay this out, as it came to me overnight:

From any single town perspective out there, you should be looking for two mafia in five players.  Basically, take the player list, subtract yourself and me, and you have a nice pool with which to work.

That is, of course, if you think I didn't do what I did as a mafia member.

[faust]

faust, your argument that appealed to me yesterday was that it was likely that at least one scum was off the mathdude wagon.  It wasn't gkrieg, and I know it wasn't me.  That leaves Space.

How are you feeling about them?

Looking back at things, I don't quite think Space makes a lot of sense as mcmc's partner. I guess if they're the Traitor the case might be stronger? But I'm not interested in a Space exile today. If we're looking off-wagon, I prefer you.

[faust]

I just want to lay this out, as it came to me overnight:

From any single town perspective out there, you should be looking for two mafia in five players.  Basically, take the player list, subtract yourself and me, and you have a nice pool with which to work.

That is, of course, if you think I didn't do what I did as a mafia member.

Or you could subtract me! If you think I didn't do what I did as a mafia member.