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[Voltgloss]

Remember:  from scum's perspective, if one of them gets lynched today, they lose the game.  With Follow-the-Cop, they are doomed.

Then why in the world would QVist counterclaim?

Because you both expected that I had investigated Qvist and learned he was scum.  From your perspective, it would explain why I switched from mainly suspecting Axxle to mainly suspecting Qvist.

So Qvist figured counterclaiming was his only hope.

[Axxle]

I don't think Volt would have pushed your wagon so hard if he were scumbuddies with you, so if he flips scum you're cleared in my mind.  Therefore asher would have to be scum.

So your theory is that I, joth, and ash voted 1-2-3 in immediate and quick succession on yuma on Day 2, all three of us being scum?

With me having replaced in after Day 2 started, and thus having no "opportunity" to converse with my supposed "scumbuddies?"

I didn't really take that into account but I think you guys got cocky since you thought just one more mislynch + some WIFOM the next day would get you the win.

[yuma]

I don't think Volt would have pushed your wagon so hard if he were scumbuddies with you, so if he flips scum you're cleared in my mind.  Therefore asher would have to be scum.

So your theory is that I, joth, and ash voted 1-2-3 in immediate and quick succession on yuma on Day 2, all three of us being scum?

With me having replaced in after Day 2 started, and thus having no "opportunity" to converse with my supposed "scumbuddies?"

I didn't really take that into account but I think you guys got cocky since you thought just one more mislynch + some WIFOM the next day would get you the win.

not sure who "you guys" is referring to but i am anything but cocky right now....

[Axxle]

Volt joth ash

[Captain_Frisk]

In the history of f.ds, when has the counter claimer been wrong?

In the very first game.  M-I.

He was fingered as scum.  Doesn't work.

[ashersky]

In the history of f.ds, when has the counter claimer been wrong?

In the very first game.  M-I.

He was fingered as scum.  Doesn't work.

I counter claimed in hydras and was mislynched.  Is that what you are asking?  I counter claimed you in MX (different role) and was not lying (again) and we won.

In the games I've been in, I think all fake claims have been the first claim.  Not saying that's what's happening here, but it is my experience.

[Captain_Frisk]

In the history of f.ds, when has the counter claimer been wrong?

In the very first game.  M-I.

He was fingered as scum.  Doesn't work.

I counter claimed in hydras and was mislynched.  Is that what you are asking?  I counter claimed you in MX (different role) and was not lying (again) and we won.

In the games I've been in, I think all fake claims have been the first claim.  Not saying that's what's happening here, but it is my experience.

Thats my feeling as well.  I don't think we've ever seen a counter claim other than M-1 and in that case it was the caught scum false claiming.

[Captain_Frisk]

Notice how 100% rock-solid sure Axxle is that I am scum and Qvist is town.

Now notice how all the rest of you are unsure as to which of us (me or Qvist) is town and which is scum.

Your unsurety is how town SHOULD feel, and act, in this situation.  You don't know which of us is the liar, and you're trying to figure it out.

Why is Axxle so 100% rock-solid sure? 
There is only one explanation:  he knows which of us is town.  (Me.)  And he knows because he is scum.  (With Qvist.)

Remember:  from scum's perspective, if one of them gets lynched today, they lose the game.  With Follow-the-Cop, they are doomed.

So Axxle's only, ONLY, chance, is to convince you all that I am scum, get me lynched, and hope that you don't all lynch him on the final day after lynching Qvist tomorrow.

That's why he is trying so very hard.  It's his (and Qvist's) only hope.

Would you be willing to lynch Axxle first?

[ashersky]

Notice how 100% rock-solid sure Axxle is that I am scum and Qvist is town.

Now notice how all the rest of you are unsure as to which of us (me or Qvist) is town and which is scum.

Your unsurety is how town SHOULD feel, and act, in this situation.  You don't know which of us is the liar, and you're trying to figure it out.

Why is Axxle so 100% rock-solid sure? 
There is only one explanation:  he knows which of us is town.  (Me.)  And he knows because he is scum.  (With Qvist.)

Remember:  from scum's perspective, if one of them gets lynched today, they lose the game.  With Follow-the-Cop, they are doomed.

So Axxle's only, ONLY, chance, is to convince you all that I am scum, get me lynched, and hope that you don't all lynch him on the final day after lynching Qvist tomorrow.

That's why he is trying so very hard.  It's his (and Qvist's) only hope.

Would you be willing to lynch Axxle first?

Frisk, this was my line of thinking as well when I asked if we should lynch someone other than one of the cops.  I mean, I suppose they could then investigate each other, but we know where that would go, if they both lived.  The doctor has a 50% chance of protecting the real cop.  I don't know, I think it's worth figuring out the pros and cons.

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk, this was my line of thinking as well when I asked if we should lynch someone other than one of the cops.  I mean, I suppose they could then investigate each other, but we know where that would go, if they both lived.  The doctor has a 50% chance of protecting the real cop.  I don't know, I think it's worth figuring out the pros and cons.

Why on earth would the cops investigate eachother?

[Axxle]

Not lynching a cop claim is a bad idea, you're just postponing it till tomorrow.

[TheMunch]

So we gotta figure out if we lynch one of qvist/volt and figure out which is scum, who the scumbuddy is, right?  But we might be wrong with who we lynch, meaning we would lose the investigation results.  Do we gain enough from lynching axxle to know which of the two cops is telling the truth?  I'm actually liking lynching axxle.  Only problem is if he is actually not scum...

[Captain_Frisk]

Not lynching a cop claim is a bad idea, you're just postponing it till tomorrow.

I'm talking to Volt.

[Voltgloss]

Would you be willing to lynch Axxle first?

I would prefer to lynch Qvist, because I know 100% sure he is scum.
I have 95% certainty that Axxle is scum.

Lynching Qvist is better because then I can then investigate Axxle and confirm my 95% read to 100% certainty.  Or, if it's the 5% possibility of him just playing really really really badly as town, then we figure that out without a mislynch.

I think Qvist-or-me should be resolved today, while the town has a mislynch to spare. 

So at this point - no.  The town should lynch Qvist, who is 100% guaranteed scum.  I don't see a reason to settle for less.

[Voltgloss]

Thats my feeling as well.  I don't think we've ever seen a counter claim other than M-1 and in that case it was the caught scum false claiming.

That IS what happened here.  Qvist counterclaimed because he expected me to say "I investigated Qvist and he is scum, which is why I've been focused on him all Day 3."

[Captain_Frisk]

Thats my feeling as well.  I don't think we've ever seen a counter claim other than M-1 and in that case it was the caught scum false claiming.

That IS what happened here.  Qvist counterclaimed because he expected me to say "I investigated Qvist and he is scum, which is why I've been focused on him all Day 3."

Go back and reread qvist and the number of times he calls out axxle for lurking.

[Voltgloss]

Go back and reread qvist and the number of times he calls out axxle for lurking.

"Calls out," or "asks for advice?"

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm going to bed.  I don't want to talk too much without qvist online as well.

Qvist - tell us when I'll be available for some heart to heart.

[Voltgloss]

Hydra counterclaim is an inapplicable example.  It was Lylo there; scum had less on the line.  If they won the him-or-me, they won the game.  If they lost the him-or-me, they could still win on the following day.  Therefore, it made sense for scum to affirmatively force a him-or-me by fakeclaiming out of the gate.

Here, we have a mislynch to spare.  If I were scum going out of my way to force a him-or-me, I am guaranteeing that scum loses if I lose the him-or-me; but even if I win, scum has NOT won (because I'd be lynched the following day and then we'd still have to win at Lylo).

To sum up:
- In Hydra, scum WON if they won the him-or-me, and STILL COULD WIN even if they lost it.  So it made sense for them to force the him-or-me by fakeclaiming.
- Here, scum LOSES if they lose the him-or-me, and STILL COULD LOSE even if they win it.  So it makes no sense for scum to force the him-or-me.  They were forced into it instead.  By me, as town.

[ashersky]

Hydra counterclaim is an inapplicable example.  It was Lylo there; scum had less on the line.  If they won the him-or-me, they won the game.  If they lost the him-or-me, they could still win on the following day.  Therefore, it made sense for scum to affirmatively force a him-or-me by fakeclaiming out of the gate.

Here, we have a mislynch to spare.  If I were scum going out of my way to force a him-or-me, I am guaranteeing that scum loses if I lose the him-or-me; but even if I win, scum has NOT won (because I'd be lynched the following day and then we'd still have to win at Lylo).

To sum up:
- In Hydra, scum WON if they won the him-or-me, and STILL COULD WIN even if they lost it.  So it made sense for them to force the him-or-me by fakeclaiming.
- Here, scum LOSES if they lose the him-or-me, and STILL COULD LOSE even if they win it.  So it makes no sense for scum to force the him-or-me.  They were forced into it instead.  By me, as town.

Am I crazy for getting scummy feelings from these types of posts from VG?  They're like pre-planned arguments for why his scummy-seeming claim isn't actually scummy.  Lots of evidence and reasoning.  But then again, they are good arguments.  Bah, this sucks.

[Captain_Frisk]

You are not crazy.

[Captain_Frisk]

Hey guys, just because I'm conf town and I can lurk whenever I feel like it doesn't give the rest of you an excuse!  We still need to find Qvist / Volt's partner.

[Voltgloss]

Frisk, what are your thoughts on my #1267?

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh, I have lots of thoughts on it, but I'm very interested in the non ICs. 

Why do you think QVist chose me to "fake" investigate?

[Voltgloss]

Why do you think QVist chose me to "fake" investigate?

One or both of the following reasons:

1.  As a new scum player, trying to answer the question "if I were Cop, who would I have investigated," Qvist reasoned that the correct answer is "whoever I claimed most often to be scum - I'd want to try to confirm my biggest scumread."  When in fact the better use of a Cop's power is on someone who is a null read to the Cop.

2.  My suspicions as voiced during Day 3 had two significant changes from Day 2:  (1) I suspected Qvist more than anyone else, even Axxle; and (2) I was convinced you (Frisk) were town.  Qvist, as scum knowing that they let the Cop get away with an investigation last night, would reasonably assume I had investigated either him or you.  By claiming to have investigated you - my own most likely Town investigatory target - Qvist could sow confusion by making it appear I was "copying" his investigation result.

#1 is the simpler explanation and thus probably more likely.