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Author Topic: Mafia XV - GAME OVER - TOWN WINS  (Read 161304 times)

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yuma

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #675 on: November 20, 2012, 11:48:37 am »

and you are spending too much time tunneling and not looking elsewhere.
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #676 on: November 20, 2012, 11:48:43 am »

and you are not understanding what I am trying to say.

Let me try again.... scum didn't want to all be on my wagon come after my flip of town and being mislynched.

So instead they expressed town reads on me, and wanted townies to lynch me instead. But now they don't have enough townies to get a lynch on me, but are hesitant to vote for me because that would make that person--not you munch, you have enough town reads now that you are more likely to be the NK then the lynch tomorrow--the lynch tomorrow resulting in a scum lynch tomorrow.

Am I making any sense or are you really not getting what I am trying to say.

everytime I post you dont' understand it? Is it me, or is it you?

My town reads are going to evaporate if you flip town.
*Town reads on me
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #677 on: November 20, 2012, 11:50:40 am »

and you are not understanding what I am trying to say.

Let me try again.... scum didn't want to all be on my wagon come after my flip of town and being mislynched.

So instead they expressed town reads on me, and wanted townies to lynch me instead. But now they don't have enough townies to get a lynch on me, but are hesitant to vote for me because that would make that person--not you munch, you have enough town reads now that you are more likely to be the NK then the lynch tomorrow--the lynch tomorrow resulting in a scum lynch tomorrow.

Am I making any sense or are you really not getting what I am trying to say.

everytime I post you dont' understand it? Is it me, or is it you?

My town reads are going to evaporate if you flip town.
*Town reads on me

How?

I mean really... at this point for me to get lynched it would require Eevee, Qvist, Frisk or Axxle to drastically change their opinion on me and hammer me. Who would be scummier. Someone who had a read and stuck with it or someone who was wishywashy and then changed it?

To me the obvious answer is the wishywashy person. And that is why I am voting Qvist and wouldn't be at all surprised to see him hammer me.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #678 on: November 20, 2012, 11:57:07 am »

Isn't this precisely the situation I outlined?  If I am town and Yuma is town, it would be pretty easy to have cruised to a victory with a mislynch today (hammer yuma) and a mislynch tomorrow (lynch me for pushing town yuma so hard).  This didn't happen (and I think Yuma being town scum is the cause). 

That was a bad typo..

I may need to take you off my "townie" list.
Aww, c'mon.  Typos = scumslip now?

Did you read M8?

I said at one point: "I have a 0% chance of flipping town"
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #679 on: November 20, 2012, 11:57:49 am »

yuma, I think your hypothesis is very sensible, and the opposite some people are proposing is at least as convoluted if not more.


Frisk, how? I haven't seen qvist's tunneling on you as a towny thing, how does that make everything we agree on completely null?


Everyone, I'd like to hear your take on ashersky. Would you vote for him and why?
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #680 on: November 20, 2012, 12:01:14 pm »

Frisk, how? I haven't seen qvist's tunneling on you as a towny thing, how does that make everything we agree on completely null?

If you add an extra townie into the mix, then we're getting further and further away from "lynch them all and win"
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #681 on: November 20, 2012, 12:03:04 pm »

Vote: ashersky then?

I like your like of thinking Frisk, and basically only disagree on Qvist.

No.  if you disagree with qvist, then my argument is shot.  Also, we can't just start lynching until we figure out who we think is town in that set.

Just reread this.  Looks real scummy for Eevee: 
-CF proposes 5 people of which he thinks 3 are scum and that if he is correct and we can absolve one of that list, lynching the other 4 would win the game.
-Eevee reiterates that he thinks that Qvist (not on CFs list) is scum (had voted for Qvist for a similar reason to Yumas argument; "town reads for no reason are scummy" [I think here it is worth noting that earlier Eevee was expressing a lot of opinions on gut and is now saying this is a scum trait])
-Having said this, Eevee agrees to go along with CF's plan.  If he thinks that Qvist is scum then, while he might agree that a plan based on a certain premise is sound, it would be a bad idea to just start killing off CF's short list.  Also he was comfortable going ahead with killing off CF's short list before one player was removed from it (which was a necessary condition for the plan ending in a town win).

PPE: this is relevent to CF and Eevee's back and forth
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #682 on: November 20, 2012, 12:03:50 pm »

yuma, I think your hypothesis is very sensible, and the opposite some people are proposing is at least as convoluted if not more.


Frisk, how? I haven't seen qvist's tunneling on you as a towny thing, how does that make everything we agree on completely null?


Everyone, I'd like to hear your take on ashersky. Would you vote for him and why?

I have been suspicious of him all game. I felt that his early game votes were forced and lack credibility, in all reality were probably an attempt to get on a wagon early.

Since then he has been very lurky. Not adding much to the conversation at all.

I would be very willing to vote for him and have in the past. I think I still prefer Qvist at this moment, especially after my back and forth on him and his preparation and postulation in what looks like a movement toward voting for me.
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #683 on: November 20, 2012, 12:04:37 pm »

Isn't this precisely the situation I outlined?  If I am town and Yuma is town, it would be pretty easy to have cruised to a victory with a mislynch today (hammer yuma) and a mislynch tomorrow (lynch me for pushing town yuma so hard).  This didn't happen (and I think Yuma being town scum is the cause). 

That was a bad typo..

I may need to take you off my "townie" list.
Aww, c'mon.  Typos = scumslip now?

Did you read M8?

I said at one point: "I have a 0% chance of flipping town"

Naw I dont read old games.  However, I think the typo is more excusable as it followed a very hypothetical argument where Yuma is town.  Its easy to make that typo when I had hypothetically stated Yuma was town a half dozen times.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #684 on: November 20, 2012, 12:06:14 pm »

Isn't this precisely the situation I outlined?  If I am town and Yuma is town, it would be pretty easy to have cruised to a victory with a mislynch today (hammer yuma) and a mislynch tomorrow (lynch me for pushing town yuma so hard).  This didn't happen (and I think Yuma being town scum is the cause). 

That was a bad typo..

I may need to take you off my "townie" list.
Aww, c'mon.  Typos = scumslip now?

Did you read M8?

I said at one point: "I have a 0% chance of flipping town"

Naw I dont read old games.  However, I think the typo is more excusable as it followed a very hypothetical argument where Yuma is town.  Its easy to make that typo when I had hypothetically stated Yuma was town a half dozen times.

Or you know Yuma is town?

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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #685 on: November 20, 2012, 12:07:27 pm »

Frisk, how? I haven't seen qvist's tunneling on you as a towny thing, how does that make everything we agree on completely null?

If you add an extra townie into the mix, then we're getting further and further away from "lynch them all and win"
Lol, I know myself to be town, so I'd obviously switch qvist and myself. and it's not like we have to pick all our subsequent lunch targets now, just hitting one mafia is sufficient.
more info to make good decisions again tomorrow.
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #686 on: November 20, 2012, 12:09:06 pm »

Isn't this precisely the situation I outlined?  If I am town and Yuma is town, it would be pretty easy to have cruised to a victory with a mislynch today (hammer yuma) and a mislynch tomorrow (lynch me for pushing town yuma so hard).  This didn't happen (and I think Yuma being town scum is the cause). 

That was a bad typo..

I may need to take you off my "townie" list.
Aww, c'mon.  Typos = scumslip now?

Did you read M8?

I said at one point: "I have a 0% chance of flipping town"

Naw I dont read old games.  However, I think the typo is more excusable as it followed a very hypothetical argument where Yuma is town.  Its easy to make that typo when I had hypothetically stated Yuma was town a half dozen times.

Or you know Yuma is town?
What do you think of my actual case though?  You had pointed out earlier on your list that I have bad theory but I dont really see what is off by the case that I am proposing. 
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #687 on: November 20, 2012, 12:18:50 pm »

I have a 0% chance of flipping town
Welp.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #688 on: November 20, 2012, 12:20:12 pm »

yuma, I think your hypothesis is very sensible, and the opposite some people are proposing is at least as convoluted if not more.


Frisk, how? I haven't seen qvist's tunneling on you as a towny thing, how does that make everything we agree on completely null?


Everyone, I'd like to hear your take on ashersky. Would you vote for him and why?
Can you start with an explanation of why you're voting for ashersky?
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #689 on: November 20, 2012, 12:23:44 pm »

Possible theory: Scum yuma has identified Qvist as the most likely town to hammer him, so he's trying to shame him out of it by planting the idea in all of our heads that whoever hammers him must be scum.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #690 on: November 20, 2012, 12:24:26 pm »

Since then he has been very lurky. Not adding much to the conversation at all.
As a hydra partner to Eevee, I can verify this is also a his town behavior.  I don't recall his scum behavior though so it could be a null tell.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #691 on: November 20, 2012, 12:27:14 pm »

Yeah, we really haven't seen ashersky in a long time.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #692 on: November 20, 2012, 12:27:33 pm »

Since then he has been very lurky. Not adding much to the conversation at all.
As a hydra partner to Eevee, I can verify this is also a his town behavior.  I don't recall his scum behavior though so it could be a null tell.

Axxle, yuma was talking about ashersky there.  Not Eevee.

And I am frankly inclined to agree with him.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #693 on: November 20, 2012, 12:30:23 pm »

I think an ashersky lurker lynch would acceptable to me in and of itself. But the fact that it's been pushed heavily by my top two scumspects, yuma and Eevee, means that it's either a bad idea or I've been way off-base all along. (Which I admit is more than possible).
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #694 on: November 20, 2012, 12:32:16 pm »

I feel like it would be helpful to have a Day 2 chronology of who everyone has (1) voted for and (2) announced suspicion of but haven't voted.  I don't have time to prepare that atm, but maybe someone else does?  If not I'll try to get to it when I can - I can't guarantee when that will be though.

I think an ashersky lurker lynch would acceptable to me in and of itself. But the fact that it's been pushed heavily by my top two scumspects, yuma and Eevee, means that it's either a bad idea or I've been way off-base all along. (Which I admit is more than possible).

I am of a similar mindset, jo.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #695 on: November 20, 2012, 12:33:34 pm »

yuma, I think your hypothesis is very sensible, and the opposite some people are proposing is at least as convoluted if not more.


Frisk, how? I haven't seen qvist's tunneling on you as a towny thing, how does that make everything we agree on completely null?


Everyone, I'd like to hear your take on ashersky. Would you vote for him and why?
Can you start with an explanation of why you're voting for ashersky?
Because he is scummy. Lurking, not taking positions. Basically, I think he is scum waiting on town to mislynch yuma. In a situation like this, I would expect scum to stay in the sidelines.
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #696 on: November 20, 2012, 12:33:48 pm »

I feel like it would be helpful to have a Day 2 chronology of who everyone has (1) voted for and (2) announced suspicion of but haven't voted.  I don't have time to prepare that atm, but maybe someone else does?  If not I'll try to get to it when I can - I can't guarantee when that will be though.

I think an ashersky lurker lynch would acceptable to me in and of itself. But the fact that it's been pushed heavily by my top two scumspects, yuma and Eevee, means that it's either a bad idea or I've been way off-base all along. (Which I admit is more than possible).

I am of a similar mindset, jo.

Thirded.
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #697 on: November 20, 2012, 12:35:40 pm »

Can we get an updated Votecount?  I know there hasn't been much change in a while but I know that at least Axxle unvoted and there hasn't been a votecount in a bit.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #698 on: November 20, 2012, 12:40:18 pm »

yuma, I think your hypothesis is very sensible, and the opposite some people are proposing is at least as convoluted if not more.

but the point of both is that looking for scum off my wagon has a high percentage of finding scum. This is the biggest reason I abandoned my ashersky vote and went elsewhere.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #699 on: November 20, 2012, 12:41:14 pm »

This is unofficial, but I think correct:

Qvist (1) - yuma
yuma (4) - Voltgloss, jotheonah, TheMunch, ashersky
Eevee (1) - Captain_Frisk
ashersky (1) - Eevee

Not voting (2) - Qvist, Axxle

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline: November 26 2012, Noon PST
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