Also Robz what happened to your pairing cross-referencing analysis?
My analysis was so similar to Volt's that I didn't bother with it. But here is how I would rank my suspicions based on people.
High: Kuildeous, Insomniac
Moderate: Jtheonah, Galzria
Low: Voltgloss
None: Bozzball
If I eliminate the people who I have low suspicion for, and I eliminate pairings where there have been recent accusations and voting and tension, I'm left with K-I as the run away most suspicious pairing left. G-J is something to be aware of, they seem so on the same page, but... Volt and me are like that, so I know it can happen organically. There's also J-I and G-I, but.... J-I are fighting a bit now. Really, I'm left with K-I. If I throw Volt back into the mix there are more possible pairings (Bozzball, too), but J-I is the big one.
OK, rereading everything has certainly not made everything clear. In fact, quite the contrary. But all my most probable pairings at this point except one include Kuildeous. Re-reading has made me more convinced of his guilt, and I think maybe Galzria is right that I'm overthinking with my second-guessing. I especially notice how his day 2 play has consisted of wildly throwing his accusations from one person to the next in a way that lines up with public opinion. And Galzria has convinced me that his vote will be informational.
I'm actually ready to cast vote #3 for K, but I don't want to do so abruptly since it is the penultimate vote that opens up for the hammer, etc. So I'm pulling a Volt here. Unless something drastic happens between now and then, I'm casting a vote for Kuildeous shortly after midnight EST tonight. Even if my vote is the hammer.
In the meantime, let's keep talking it out.
Sidebar: One thing my re-read has made clear is I now agree with assessments about bozzball. Very very high chance he's town. Very low chance he's playing a high-risk mafia silent act game. So for the moment Unvote.
This raises my suspicion of you, Volt can pull a Volt because he did it on day 1. You doing it seems like a good way to hedge when you lynch innocent
Why is J doing this suspicious, like at all? Seems perfectly reasonable to me.
It's stuff like this that makes me really suspect Insomniac and Kuildeous. Their reasoning just doesn't seem as sound as other players. Like, I've been suspicious of J. I have some worries that I have brought up before. But, this point that Insomniac raised is just not a suspicion point at all. I don't see how it is. And as I've said before he keeps bringing up points against me that aren't good arguments. His main problem with me is that I cast a wide web of suspicion, but I'm pretty sure J has cast at least a comparable web, and Galzria a bigger web, and Kuildeous a MUCH bigger web. So it seems to me like he keeps coming up with distortions of the truth, which is what the mafia have to do, because they are trying to convince us of something that is wrong (whereas townspeople are trying to convince each other of something they're not sure about).
And I'm more concerned about the wide web of suspicions when there aren't good explanations underlying them, and Kuildeous's aren't so great. This is not to say that he doesn't make good points at all. I like his analysis of needing to lynch, what happens on each day, etc. But, you know it's easy to score points with posts like that. And it really looks to me like Insomniac is trying to bail him out because they are both mafia.
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Topic: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters GAME OVER Mafia Wins! (Read 96298 times)