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[Insomniac]

Hmm I am ok with a CF, Jo or Shraeye lynch right now :s

That is bad. All three of us cannot be scum. Ergo, you should not be ok with any of us dying.

I don't want all of you dead but I see valid reasons for each of you to be lynched.

[Robz888]

Hmm I am ok with a CF, Jo or Shraeye lynch right now :s

That is bad. All three of us cannot be scum. Ergo, you should not be ok with any of us dying.

This Jo quote I will not be putting into my profile.

[jotheonah]

Hmm I am ok with a CF, Jo or Shraeye lynch right now :s

That is bad. All three of us cannot be scum. Ergo, you should not be ok with any of us dying.

WHAT?

The English language failed me here because there are two ways to read "you should not be ok with any of us dying."  What I meant was "You should not be equally ok with any of the three of us dying." Which, now that I think of it, is in direct opposition to my supporting a random lynch. Ok, whatever, you can support all three major wagons and pretend that constitutes an opinion.

[Insomniac]

Essentially the case on Jo is mine so I'm biased to think its good.
Shraeye has made me nervous by putting me as lower suspicion than himself twice.
Captain_Frisk hasn't been too involved. Fanned the flames a bit of a town on town argument.

Of the three I am the least on with the cf lynch. But he is the most likely target

[Voltaire]

Vote Count 1.11

jotheonah (2) - shraeye, Insomniac
Captain_Frisk (3) - Robz888, Archetype, jotheonah
SwitchedFromStarcraft (1) - Eevee
shraeye (2) - Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft

Not voting: ashersky

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is today, September 18, at noon forum time (~62 minutes from now)

Please note Vote Count 1.10 mis-stated the amount of time remaining. Deadline remains noon forum time (noon EST).

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Voltaire - If we get to the deadline and two or more people have the same vote total, what happens?

I can answer that - if nobody hits 5 - nobody is lynched.... regardless of other vote totals.

From the rules:
1. Whomever has the most votes currently on them at lynch deadline is lynched

In the case of a tie, the first person to reach the highest total is lynched. If you want to no-lynch, you must vote for "No Lynch," and it must either reach a majority, have the highest vote total, or win the tiebreaker.

Voltaire: Was the part that is now in bold in the rules and I missed it?

No. It is how this situation was handled in ZM1 (though it never came up). I will add it to the rules so it is clear going forward.

Is that methodology more manipulatable by players than some other method? (I don't have another method to suggest, because I want to get this in quickly). Consider the following (maybe worst case) hypothetical scenario:

Yesterday (in real life yesterday), player X got to 4 votes.  The game proceeds to today, with other suspects accruing votes. We get to the deadline, with no clear consensus, and three people have two votes each, including player X.  So X gets lynched, based primarily on the events of yesterday.

As town, this will make me much more hesitant to vote AT ALL, except at the deadline, robbing me of the information-gathering component of my only weapon, my vote.  It also robs all other players of the ability to analyze my vote, if I'm not voting. And in my analysis, people who don't vote until the deadline look scummy.

[Voltaire]

Is that methodology more manipulatable by players than some other method? (I don't have another method to suggest, because I want to get this in quickly). Consider the following (maybe worst case) hypothetical scenario:

Yesterday (in real life yesterday), player X got to 4 votes.  The game proceeds to today, with other suspects accruing votes. We get to the deadline, with no clear consensus, and three people have two votes each, including player X.  So X gets lynched, based primarily on the events of yesterday.

As town, this will make me much more hesitant to vote AT ALL, except at the deadline, robbing me of the information-gathering component of my only weapon, my vote.  It also robs all other players of the ability to analyze my vote, if I'm not voting. And in my analysis, people who don't vote until the deadline look scummy.

These are the rules that were used in ZM1, and they are the rules we are using in ZM2. It is up to the players to decide how they wish to play in this setting. Personally, I think the rules are working just fine.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

...
Of the three I am the least on with the cf lynch. But he is the most likely target.

Unless Robz or Ash or Jo move their vote.  If Jo moves his vote now, it may result in his own lynch. Am I wrong in seeing this as a problem?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

VOLTAIRE- Thanks for the quick response.  I may be making mountains out of molehills.

[shraeye]

Well golly.  62 minutes, eh?  I can explain the "im not good at theory" vs. hey check out this mathematical symmetry.

I'm not good at mafia theory.  Which hopefully has nothing to do with symmetry in lists of combinations.  That's all combinatorics, and I've got a paper published in that I think.  I can see how those two seem contradictory, but when it comes to mafia, I'm more or less lost.  An example is the finer points of "town should strive to keep parity odd...?"  I've seen ehunt make huge posts that he and other claim are 100% convincing, and I'm still confused as to how that can be true.

As for Insomniac being lower than me on the list, yeah.  That happened.  The mixing up of the symbols was how I mistyped my second list (with myself at the bottom).  It turns out that I didn't mix up the symbols because I initially put insom<shraeye.  But then I looked and saw a whole list of >>>>>< and said "silly me, how did I mix up that symbol *switch to>*, when I really just switched the names"

So that's my fluff "defense" post, and the next one will be the good stuff.  who should we lynch?

[Captain_Frisk]

Essentially the case on Jo is mine so I'm biased to think its good.
Shraeye has made me nervous by putting me as lower suspicion than himself twice.
Captain_Frisk hasn't been too involved. Fanned the flames a bit of a town on town argument.

Of the three I am the least on with the cf lynch. But he is the most likely target

Ok - so you think Jo is the scummiest - and you're voting him.  Check
Shraeye - I agree that putting you lower than Shraeye on the subject list is strange
Me - Not involved?  Compare my posts with say - archetype or RobZ.  Fanning the flames on town on town?  The townie that you're currently voting for?  I don't understand this logic at all.

If I didn't have a gut feeling that you were town - I'd be all over you.

Do you really think that Jo is scummy?  That as scum - he'd be so obvious in distracting us for half the day?

[shraeye]

VOLTAIRE- Thanks for the quick response.  I may be making mountains out of molehills.

Quick aside: yeah, I think it's possible for that to be gamed, and I guess I haven't read the details enough to see whether "first to max number x" is invalidated by dipping below x for a brief time. 
Like, votecount 1.4 A:3 B:2...votecount 1.5 A:2 B:3...votecount1.6  A:3 B:3...who gets lynched?

But when I'm voting, I'm just thinking like it's a normal deadline. so get my vote behind someone who I think is scum and hopefully they also have a high chance of actually being lynched.

[shraeye]

Essentially the case on Jo is mine so I'm biased to think its good.
Shraeye has made me nervous by putting me as lower suspicion than himself twice.
Captain_Frisk hasn't been too involved. Fanned the flames a bit of a town on town argument.

Of the three I am the least on with the cf lynch. But he is the most likely target

Ok - so you think Jo is the scummiest - and you're voting him.  Check
Shraeye - I agree that putting you lower than Shraeye on the subject list is strange
Me - Not involved?  Compare my posts with say - archetype or RobZ.  Fanning the flames on town on town?  The townie that you're currently voting for?  I don't understand this logic at all.

If I didn't have a gut feeling that you were town - I'd be all over you.

Do you really think that Jo is scummy?  That as scum - he'd be so obvious in distracting us for half the day?

In short, yeah.  I mean, he admitted that it's blitz mafia, the choice time to try out crazy ideas and gambits.  So play the "there's NO WAAAY i could be mafia and act this blatently" card actually feels like a serious possibility for joth.

[Captain_Frisk]

In short, yeah.  I mean, he admitted that it's blitz mafia, the choice time to try out crazy ideas and gambits.  So play the "there's NO WAAAY i could be mafia and act this blatently" card actually feels like a serious possibility for joth.

Interesting.  That's actually pretty compelling.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Well golly.  62 minutes, eh?  I can explain the "im not good at theory" vs. hey check out this mathematical symmetry.

I'm not good at mafia theory.  Which hopefully has nothing to do with symmetry in lists of combinations.  That's all combinatorics, and I've got a paper published in that I think.  I can see how those two seem contradictory, but when it comes to mafia, I'm more or less lost.  An example is the finer points of "town should strive to keep parity odd...?"  I've seen ehunt make huge posts that he and other claim are 100% convincing, and I'm still confused as to how that can be true.

As for Insomniac being lower than me on the list, yeah.  That happened.  The mixing up of the symbols was how I mistyped my second list (with myself at the bottom).  It turns out that I didn't mix up the symbols because I initially put insom<shraeye.  But then I looked and saw a whole list of >>>>>< and said "silly me, how did I mix up that symbol *switch to>*, when I really just switched the names"

So that's my fluff "defense" post, and the next one will be the good stuff.  who should we lynch?

Yeah, I'm not so much concerned with "that happened" as I am that it happened twice, I've asked you about it directly once and indirectly with my wall-o-quotes post above, several others have commented on it, and it's still not been addressed, just sloughed off.

I'm also still waiting for the next post with whatever you have as "good stuff".

[shraeye]

So I'm rereading and catching up simultaneously, and joth just leaves me with a general bad feeling in my face.  It really feels like a crazy ploy he's trying out as scum because this is Blitz.  His morning statements have cooled off some and made him seem less out there until he decided to break logic in #348.  His defense of that in #352 also makes no real sense to me.  This seemed like he was about to shift to not #1 on my list until I read those two.  Now I'm feeling like scum-joth said "oh man, crazy scum gambit didn't work.  Time to start working for a real vote, passing out some town cred to shray and insom...good thing it's too late for them to turn away from frisk"

As for SFS, he's still at #2 and I think eevee had the right read there.  Somebody else mentioned that he didn't like SFS actions, I think that was Frisk.  That longer post Frisk made (#330) sounded pretty good.  If nobody else is getting this from joth, I would want to back down to voting for SFS.  This has a small chance to surpass the Frisk wagon, and Frisk is probably equal to ashersky right now in my mind.  Both are just slightly more suspicious than me.

I'm trying to find words on my SFS read.  The fence-sitting is a smaller part of it.  Your response to eevee last night was a bigger part.  The "jokingly ignore suspicion" part.  Additionally, you called Frisk out on talking football last night, while you were the one engaging him in it.

As for Eevee, there's nothing I can say right now.  Eevee has been on my suspicion list for a while based on a pure gut reaction, but I haven't seen anything to actually warrent a vote.  And I've seen more thana  few things to warrent not voting for Eevee.  Archetype is now my #3, because I really dislike how little he's contributing other than a vote on someone who is giving me a nice town-read.

[shraeye]

Well golly.  62 minutes, eh?  I can explain the "im not good at theory" vs. hey check out this mathematical symmetry.

I'm not good at mafia theory.  Which hopefully has nothing to do with symmetry in lists of combinations.  That's all combinatorics, and I've got a paper published in that I think.  I can see how those two seem contradictory, but when it comes to mafia, I'm more or less lost.  An example is the finer points of "town should strive to keep parity odd...?"  I've seen ehunt make huge posts that he and other claim are 100% convincing, and I'm still confused as to how that can be true.

As for Insomniac being lower than me on the list, yeah.  That happened.  The mixing up of the symbols was how I mistyped my second list (with myself at the bottom).  It turns out that I didn't mix up the symbols because I initially put insom<shraeye.  But then I looked and saw a whole list of >>>>>< and said "silly me, how did I mix up that symbol *switch to>*, when I really just switched the names"

So that's my fluff "defense" post, and the next one will be the good stuff.  who should we lynch?

Yeah, I'm not so much concerned with "that happened" as I am that it happened twice, I've asked you about it directly once and indirectly with my wall-o-quotes post above, several others have commented on it, and it's still not been addressed, just sloughed off.

I'm also still waiting for the next post with whatever you have as "good stuff".

I made a read on Insom, and it was super town.  But I've already broadcasted that.  The more I do it, the more likely it is he will die tonight.  So I'm withholding the full explanation on purpuse.

[shraeye]

I'm going to have to go into a seminar soon, I'll see if I can sneak in the laptop, but I can't be banging away at the keyboard too much.  Let me leave with this piece of parting advice.  People need to consider it good and hard.

Essentially the case on Jo is mine so I'm biased to think its good.
Shraeye has made me nervous by putting me as lower suspicion than himself twice.
Captain_Frisk hasn't been too involved. Fanned the flames a bit of a town on town argument.

Of the three I am the least on with the cf lynch. But he is the most likely target

Ok - so you think Jo is the scummiest - and you're voting him.  Check
Shraeye - I agree that putting you lower than Shraeye on the subject list is strange
Me - Not involved?  Compare my posts with say - archetype or RobZ.  Fanning the flames on town on town?  The townie that you're currently voting for?  I don't understand this logic at all.

If I didn't have a gut feeling that you were town - I'd be all over you.

Do you really think that Jo is scummy?  That as scum - he'd be so obvious in distracting us for half the day?

In short, yeah.  I mean, he admitted that it's blitz mafia, the choice time to try out crazy ideas and gambits.  So play the "there's NO WAAAY i could be mafia and act this blatently" card actually feels like a serious possibility for joth.

[Insomniac]

30 minutes

[Insomniac]

@Frisk: Yes I think joth is scummy, shraeye had a good reason for thinking it joth though well its blitz try something crazy!. He had good reasons to think it would work too (SFS and Robz had voiced obvious support of it). And as I called him out on it more and more he backed down more and more which is what I would expect caught scum to do.

[Robz888]

I'm very tempted to switch to Jo, who is omega-super-scummy... but my Day 1 super scummy reads are never correct, so I think I'll ride out this random train and stick with Frisk.

[ashersky]

Got some unexpected free moments, so chiming in.  I was going to quote CF's last posts and point out that they reminded me of MX, where he was scum, but then reconsidered thinking that is really the only CF I know, so maybe it wasn't the fairest of reads, so I settled on this paragraph instead.

I could see Joth flipping scum if he really thought about trying the hail Mary random gambit since it was blitz.  But it seems more likely he's just town who made a misstep thinking it might be a good idea--I can relate to that from my own MX mistakes.

I'd say Shraeye and Robz tie for third on my descending list of possible scum reads, I guess.  Eevee next, then the rest.

SFS remains an enigma.  Any other thoughts with 23 minutes to go?

[Captain_Frisk]

All right, I'm convinced:

Vote: J to the whatever onah

If shraeye was really scum, he would have just switched over to me and sealed the deal.  I'm still #1 on the chopping block, but at least it gives someone a chance to not lynch me - which random (FOS: RobZ - REMEMBER THIS TOMORROW PEOPLE) or not - will still kill the townie I'm sure of.

Note - i think Asher and Archetype said they were out until evening, so SFS / Eeevee I think this is coming down to the 2 of you.

[shraeye]

Note - i think Asher and Archetype said they were out until evening, so SFS / Eeevee I think this is coming down to the 2 of you.

Or Robz, I would still accept a change of heart on the random thing.  It just feels dirty to not vote based on any sort of read at all.

[shraeye]

Or off the assumption that your reads are so bad, that they have no chance of being correct.  That's probably worse.