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[ashersky]

I realize I also inadvertently broke Standard Rule #7.  I apologize for that, and accept any punishment that comes my way.

[ashersky]

And here's how that post was supposed to post.

Flavor:
1. Flavor will be based on the Hunger Games series. It spans over all three of the books.
2. The game has been set up to openly remove flavor as a factor in game solving, decisions, etc. Though, if you know the story, you'll get some kicks out of the flavor

Per the mods themselves, flavor cannot be used in game solving and is not a factor in decisions.  We made a decision when we chose items, therefore the flavor could not have been a factor.  And now we are trying to solve the game in part by using the flavor of items, which again, is not important.

I would think that means that either faust is lying or the mods lied.

(In actually, I don't think that's particularly required to be true.  The mods did not lie, but I believe as a mod it is impossible to design a game around a flavor without that flavor impacting the game itself.  I assume our mods really like the flavor, so of course the set-up, the items, etc. will be infused with the flavor.  Consciously or unconsciously, the mods did allow flavor to impact game decisions and possible solving.  That is not a fault or a complaint, just my opinion.  It just makes for difficult reconciliations.

Mockingjay was something that was in the item list.  That means something specific to people who know the flavor, but not to others.  If whatever the Mockingjay thing is relates in anyway to flavor, the people choosing with knowledge were advantaged over those who didn't.

And faust's claim that he was able to figure out the items is just confirmation of that.)

[Jimmmmm]

Just to make it stand out -- I accidentally modified the second post of the game (the one with rules in it) by clicking the wrong option on the post when I went to quote it.

Do you have those rules saved somewhere?  I hope you do, and you can just re-copy over my mistake.

Sincerest apologies.

Bahahaha!

[scolapasta]

Just to make it stand out -- I accidentally modified the second post of the game (the one with rules in it) by clicking the wrong option on the post when I went to quote it.

Do you have those rules saved somewhere?  I hope you do, and you can just re-copy over my mistake.

Sincerest apologies.

I have a copy, if needed, but as an image, not text. (I had it in a browser tab and have an extension that "hibernates" the page and takes a screen shot. If you need it, let me know)

[ashersky]

Is 2 out of 13 of a set of 20 a generally accepted scientific standard to prove a hypothesis?  Like, "hey, this medicine worked on 2 out of 13 people, must work for all!"?

I really don't know, as I'm no scientist.  But seems suspect.

Also, as I have said multiple times, my item directly contradicts faust's hypothesis.

This isn't science. This is game. Designed by a person/people who have somewhat similar experiences with Mafia to the people playing. The items were very likely created with ideas of how they would be interpreted in mind (because you should keep these things in mind when designing a game). Maybe they deliberately made some items with unexpected effects. Maybe some items have unexpected effects because they couldn't think of what else to use or because people have different expectations. But the fact remains that we seem to have evidence to suggest that the mods generally tried to create items whose effects match their flavour.

Well, see my epic posting fail for why I see that as an issue.

My main point, though, which no one seems to focus on, is that faust is scummy for trying to get the entire population to believe one thing based on what I think is flimsy evidence, and his only expansion on his reasoning up to this point has been to say his and his district partner's items matched his guesses.

All he had to do was walk back his confidence level on his assumption, or admit that maybe his post was a bit exaggerated, or say stuff like "we seem to have evidence to suggest that the mods generally tried to create items who effect match their flavour" instead.

[ashersky]

Just to make it stand out -- I accidentally modified the second post of the game (the one with rules in it) by clicking the wrong option on the post when I went to quote it.

Do you have those rules saved somewhere?  I hope you do, and you can just re-copy over my mistake.

Sincerest apologies.

I have a copy, if needed, but as an image, not text. (I had it in a browser tab and have an extension that "hibernates" the page and takes a screen shot. If you need it, let me know)

Nice!  Definitely save that until the mods respond.

[Jimmmmm]

I think you have a really good point actually. Unless the mods completely randomised the items and Bow and Arrow just happened to land on Vig, and the other ones that faust knows just happened to land on the ones that made sense to him, it's not true that knowing the flavour is completely unhelpful. Obviously basically everyone knows what a bow and arrow is, but those that don't know the flavour surely have less idea what jewelry or a rose might do because they don't know how these things were used in the story.

I suspect that by flavour they were referring to flavour texts and the point is you shouldn't feel obligated to read that text.

I think we can conclude that there is a (likely quite substantial) subset of the items for which the flavour helps inform the function, but that doesn't necessarily hold true for every single item.

[scolapasta]

Flipping two correct is proof that faust knows the other 11?  Or that the deck is marked?  Or could faust have just been lucky?  I am continually waiting for some explanation or proof how faust knows his 13 guesses are all very nearly perfect.

I don't think anyone's suggesting that "Flipping two correct is proof that faust knows the other 11".
Hypothesis: The mods generally tried to align the flavour and mechanics of the items.
Result: 2 items have mechanics in line with their flavour.
Conclusion: The hypothesis is very likely correct.

Obviously any two people could have different ideas how of what an item should do, but given that 2/2 items match, it's very likely that the mods in fact did try to do this.

And now back to the debate!

When you've quoted faust, you've left out a key part of what he said:"As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye"

I don't think faust was claiming that all 13 objects he guessed where correct (even if her were scum, how would he be able to confirm 13?), just that, as Jimmmmm captures above, it is possible to have a guess based on item name. i.e. that knowing someone's item can give you some idea of their role.

And my "not buying it" is that it feels like you are deliberately taking faust out of that context, in order to create chaos and suspicion.

[Jimmmmm]

My main point, though, which no one seems to focus on, is that faust is scummy for trying to get the entire population to believe one thing based on what I think is flimsy evidence, and his only expansion on his reasoning up to this point has been to say his and his district partner's items matched his guesses.

This is what faust said:

PUBLIC POLL:
Which is more powerful "Mockingjay pin" or "Trident"?   Which one would go earlier in the draft order? Does your answer change now that we know LaLight is high up? Which one is scum most scared of?  If you can answer ANY of these questions then congrats, you're clairvoyant and it probably isn't fair for you to play this game in the first place.

Well, I'm pretty sure that the Bandages are some kind of Doctor variant and scum want to kill whoever has them.

And if you're working with the assumption that the items are inherently unknowable, then I also don't see how all this claiming business is supposed to help us.

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

Okay so the base question was: Do people higher in the draft order likely have generally better items? shraeye seemed to make the point that there are some items which seem really ambiguous (I have no idea what a mockingjay pin might do). But this does not imply that none of the items are guessable (at least the general idea of them). faust made the point that items that seem guessable probably are. Bow and Arrow seems to have to do with killing. Bandages seems to have to do with protecting. There are a number that seem to have to do with investigating. If faust was right about some, then it's highly likely that he was right about others, and also that those high in the draft order guessed correctly (albeit roughly) what some of the items do and also highly likely that scum is able to guess what some of the items do.

[ashersky]

I mean, is the argument between “inherently unknowable” (shraeye) and “inherently knowable” (faust)?

Seems to me a more nuanced answer in the middle is likely.  It’s not like Trident awarded someone with Congrats, you are Tridely, the Trident-Wielder; at night you may stab someone with your trident.

Maybe trident is a lightning rod, maybe it is of decorative use, maybe it is huge and you can hide behind it. 

Was one of my guesses right?  Possible.  Does that make the items “inherently knowable”?  No. That just makes me lucky. (Or familiar with flavor.)

The Jimmmmm explanations are much more believable to me than the faust one, and is closer to correct in my opinion than the shraeye one. 

[shraeye]

I think we can conclude that there is a (likely quite substantial) subset of the items for which the flavour helps inform the function, but that doesn't necessarily hold true for every single item.

It's insane to think that it was totally randomized.  And it's insane to think that any player can 100% guess everything at this point.  My contention is that WE DO NOT KNOW what #1 drafted.  Mix apparently thinks he does.  I get the impression that other people think so as well.  Or at least think that "earlier drafting = more powerful item". 

The subset of "early drafters" might very well have overall more powerful items, but I don't understand how in the face of so much uncertainty (item-meaning, possibly getting blocked from your first choice, and what powers each player ranks as "best") people are still worried that revealing the draft order will give scum an advantage.

That's the point I was trying to make, and apparently it's turned into a totally irrelevant philosophical crisis.

[shraeye]

What I do not know, despite the mod's answers and looking at people interpreting those posts is:

Exactly when would the badguy QT have opened?

Unless I'm reading wrong (likely), I have seen multiple answers to this so wanted to know what page I should be operating from.

[shraeye]

I mean, is the argument between “inherently unknowable” (shraeye) and “inherently knowable” (faust)?

Seems to me a more nuanced answer in the middle is likely.  It’s not like Trident awarded someone with Congrats, you are Tridely, the Trident-Wielder; at night you may stab someone with your trident.

Maybe trident is a lightning rod, maybe it is of decorative use, maybe it is huge and you can hide behind it. 

Was one of my guesses right?  Possible.  Does that make the items “inherently knowable”?  No. That just makes me lucky. (Or familiar with flavor.)

The Jimmmmm explanations are much more believable to me than the faust one, and is closer to correct in my opinion than the shraeye one.

All of the who's right / who's wrong aside....

who is scummy, ash?

[shraeye]

i currently have many townreads but not very many scumreads. I need to do a reread, which I hope I can get to tonight or tomorrow.

Give me your gut reaction on the scum-radar.  I don't care if you can't back itup.

[shraeye]

We have heard a lot from a relatively few people it seems. Where is everyone else?

Can you give me a breakdown on who's said "a lot" and who's said "a little"?

Does content matter in your assessment, or does ash get points for each and every "talk with faust about knowability" post?

[shraeye]

And the role conveniently provides a cover for when you're caught killing someone.

I fully believe e.  100%

You believe that he's a vig or that he's town?

All the above.

[shraeye]

Also. I want to know why people are jumping on the Scola wagon.

You think they shouldn't have?

[shraeye]

I guess that kind of got answered, but also not really

I'm feeling vote: mail-mi

Compared to how much you were feeling mail-mi then, how much are you feeling mail-mi now? 

[shraeye]

wow this thread is moving fast! im trying to keep up lol

Still lost?  What sticks out?

[ashersky]

I mean, is the argument between “inherently unknowable” (shraeye) and “inherently knowable” (faust)?

Seems to me a more nuanced answer in the middle is likely.  It’s not like Trident awarded someone with Congrats, you are Tridely, the Trident-Wielder; at night you may stab someone with your trident.

Maybe trident is a lightning rod, maybe it is of decorative use, maybe it is huge and you can hide behind it. 

Was one of my guesses right?  Possible.  Does that make the items “inherently knowable”?  No. That just makes me lucky. (Or familiar with flavor.)

The Jimmmmm explanations are much more believable to me than the faust one, and is closer to correct in my opinion than the shraeye one.

All of the who's right / who's wrong aside....

who is scummy, ash?

Between you guys, faust is scummy.

[Swowl]

What I do not know, despite the mod's answers and looking at people interpreting those posts is:

Exactly when would the badguy QT have opened?

Unless I'm reading wrong (likely), I have seen multiple answers to this so wanted to know what page I should be operating from.

Every QT that was not district QTs, were opened for the first time at the beginning of Drafting Phase 1. This was included in the OP.

[Swowl]

Just to make it stand out -- I accidentally modified the second post of the game (the one with rules in it) by clicking the wrong option on the post when I went to quote it.

Do you have those rules saved somewhere?  I hope you do, and you can just re-copy over my mistake.

Sincerest apologies.

Shit happens. We will re-do the post. Thanks for the heads up.

[Swowl]

I realize I also inadvertently broke Standard Rule #7.  I apologize for that, and accept any punishment that comes my way.

There will be no punitive action for this. We accept it as an accident.

[ashersky]

Thank you all for your understanding.

[Swowl]

Vote Count 1.5:


Ashersky (4): EFHW, Glooble, LaLight, scolapasta
E! (3): faust, Cayvie, Mail-Mi
LaLight (2): E!, WCD
EFHW (2): ADK, MiX
Shraeye (1): RaptorSlayer
faust (1): Ashersky
Scolapasta (1): Shraeye
Mail-Mi (1): Jimmm


Not Voting (1):  Lekkit,


Deadline is 9:15pm Forum Time on March 24th.