b) Tables reaction on Day2 (in 1214) to my investigation result was (quoting only the applicable part of the post, italics mine for separation from my prose in this post)
"SFS, thanks for that. Now I'm not going to survive past night 2, most likely (unless a doctor protects me)."
This struck me as an odd reaction, because out of the twelve (15 -3) people remaining the morning of Day2, the very worst case scenario (4 mafia, one SK) was seven remaining town. If you subtract me cause I'm VT at that point (and mafia would be aiming elsewhere, hoping to hit a power role) that leaves 6 town. I don't think 1 in 6 odds merits a claim of "most likely I die tonight". However, if Tables were mafia, feigned outrage would be a good play in that circumstance, as it might help to cement presumption of town-ness in our minds. Also, most people told me what horrible town play it was on my part. Tables didn't take this tack.
I also think someone should take another look at Robz. I don't think it would be thorough town play to omit scrutiny of all the folks we're currently reading as town, and I suspect Robz will agree.
You (pretty much) cleared me, early on day 2, when nobody else had looked at me. That made me (as I pointed out a few times during the game) the most likely town person at that time, and also the most likely mafia kill. After the post I kinda realised actually, I probably won't die, because doctor WIFOM, and indeed I didn't. It had nothing to do with us being likely to lose, more to do with, I was going to die, and dying isn't fun.
If Tables was bulletproof SK, he would know SFS was lying and very likely would have killed him by now. If he was investigative-immune, he would likely be under the impression that SFS was town. Analyzing the possibilities here isn't super fruitful, obviously. But the fact that it didn't give the town much real information actually causes me to doubt it a bit more than I would have before.
I don't think this is really important, but I've run the scenario in my head now, and basically this would be a terrible think for SK!Me to do. It would blow the false cover the mafia had accidentally given me AND telegraph to the mafia I was the SK (who else would kill SFS? Not a vig, and not a (at that point mafia hunting) SK, as SFS was looking very town. The mafia would figure it out immediately). So the town would probably put me under scrutiny and the mafia would very willingly shove it along.
Alright other thoughts now.
I WAS thinking Glooble/Frisk scum, DSell SK based mostly on it being the best night explanation. But after reading the days, I'm leaning much more strongly towards... I'm not sure. My main suspects are still DSell, Robz, Glooble and Frisk. Ironically after having been the only person pretty much saying I was not certain of SFS's obvtown before, I'm much more confident in him now. If I had to wager at the teams, I'd go for DSell/Robz as mafia, and... actually, not sure of killer. Maybe DSell is killer and, uh... I dunno who the other scum is.
So let's start. Robz first, because he's been so scummy today alone. "Nobody claim!" then "Everybody claim!" then ... silence on the matter. Not even a reply to me saying no. Just nothing. Then eventually after about a day, agreeing claiming would be bad. This just rings of mafia trying his luck. On top of that, despite Robz repeated claims I and him can't be mafia, I can certainly imaging he'd have taken the high risk O bus to try and elevate himself to this position.
Now, I really need someone else to go back and check this, but... I felt during day 2, I was pretty much the main person starting and leading the O wagon, with Robz joining soon after it looked like it was taking off. Robz seems to like to paint a slightly different story, with him being at the front along with me. Why does that matter? Well, which rings of mafia bus more: Starting a bandwagon out of the blue on your teammate, or joining one that looks like it might have ground and pushing it? I'd say it's the second: If the first is the case, that does make me less suspicious of Robz.
Finally in post 3164 we have this possible scumslip:
... I don't see how Frisk can be the only mafia left. If Glooble and Dsell are not lying aboutt heir roles, we had kind of a lot of townie power to help us with... 2 mafia total and an SK? Neither mafia a Godfather, even?...
(Emphasis mine)
HuhWHA? How could you possibly know that? How could it actually matter? Why even mention it as town? I just don't see how you could say anything like that unless it was a scumslip. Explain. Now.
Frisk I'll look at next:
...4 votes ends the game dude. 2 of those votes can come from mafia.
(Emphasis mine)
You sound awfully confident in that. Mind explaining why 4 votes definitely ends the game? I could only see you knowing that if you were mafia and knew there were two scum left...
Other than that... I don't have much on you, actually. Mostly neutral to slightly town read stuff.
Glooble third and... eh. On the one hand I kinda don't believe the claim. On the other, it would make the total roles of the game (some assumptions in here):
Townie x6
One shot cop
Woodcutter
Roleblocker
Doctor
Village Idiot
Mafia Goon x2 (one might be Godfather)
Mafia Roleblocker
Serial Killer
Hmm... I can actually see that setup being plausible. In fact... I'm not sure the mafia Blocker is needed if DSell is mafia, so, eh. For now, yeah, Glooble's claim is not unbelievable. Okay. Otherwise asides from the claim you've been mostly unremarkable (in a literal way, that is).
DSell... most of the evidence against him comes from the night phases. He can't explain Night 3 with his own suspects, without contradicting himself or relying on some very strange events. He also felt like he was hurrying things along earlier today (3116), but mostly, the evidence is scenario based, not post based. Cases where he's mafia or killer are much easier to explain than ones where he's town and his claim is true. And of course his claim is a good one to use as the killer or as the mafia. Generally all that stuff is/has been beaten to death so I won't go into it any more.
So I'm just going to say one final thing, which isn't directly relevant to anything now but wanted to let it be known. Yesterday I was somewhat inactive and intentionally didn't vote; I wanted to see what wagon would build up on Axxle, especially if he flipped scum, and without myself on it, I thought it could be informative. Unfortunately he flipped town, but that does make me think the mafia were probably happy to egg it along and make it happen as quickly as possible. I mean, the town were doing it already, but maybe someone would have come along and said wait a sec, maybe he's telling the truth.
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Topic: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (GAME OVER - MAFIA WINS!) (Read 335817 times)