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[Dsell]

Also, I admit that night 3 works better if Frisk is the only mafia left, but it still works and makes sense if he has a partner.

[Dsell]

Because, Frisk, it's much crazier to think I no-killed when it brings suspicion on me than to think YOU no-killed when it brings suspicion on me.

[Robz888]

Okay, let's say there are 2 mafia left, which is what we all assume, for balance reasons. We know it's not me or Tables, because we led the kill O thing. That leaves:

Frisk-SFS
Frisk-Glooble
Frisk-Dsell
SFS-Glooble
SFS-Dsell
Dsell-Glooble

Glooble and Frisk cannot be a pair. Frisk and Dsell cannot be a pair. So we have:

Frisk-SFS
SFS-Glooble
SFS-Dsell
Dsell-Glooble

If I am willing to rule SFS out entirely, that would actually make it fairly clear who the mafia are. Interestingly enough, SFS has voted for Frisk, and refused to remove the vote. Which is... weird, since Frisk is his most likely scum buddy, if he is mafia.

But if I believe SFS, I am pretty much forced to conclude that Dsell and Glooble are mafia, or at least lying scum.

The thing is that probably all three of Dsell, Frisk, and Glooble are scum. We just have to lynch a mafia, not the SK.

Of the three of them, Glooble is the one whose behavior makes least sense as SK, relative to mafia, I think. So he's the one I would stake as mafia.

Thoughts? I'm really just talking to Tables and SFS at this point.

[Captain_Frisk]

Okay, let's say there are 2 mafia left, which is what we all assume, for balance reasons. We know it's not me or Tables, because we led the kill O thing. That leaves:

I'd like to question this assumption - even if I agree with pretty much all of your conclusion except for the implication that I"m a serial killer. 

If lynching your mafia co-hort is illegal, then the only possible solution is DSell + Me - because we're the only ones left who didn't vote O.  I don't think you and Tables can keep living on the "well we lynched O" thing any more, just like we can't auto clear SFS and tables because of the SFS day 2 claim.

I think understand why glooble and I can't be a pair.  At least - it would be pretty crazy for him to try to lynch me. 

Why can't I be a pair with DSell?

[Robz888]

Okay, let's say there are 2 mafia left, which is what we all assume, for balance reasons. We know it's not me or Tables, because we led the kill O thing. That leaves:

I'd like to question this assumption - even if I agree with pretty much all of your conclusion except for the implication that I"m a serial killer. 

If lynching your mafia co-hort is illegal, then the only possible solution is DSell + Me - because we're the only ones left who didn't vote O.  I don't think you and Tables can keep living on the "well we lynched O" thing any more, just like we can't auto clear SFS and tables because of the SFS day 2 claim.

I think understand why glooble and I can't be a pair.  At least - it would be pretty crazy for him to try to lynch me. 

Why can't I be a pair with DSell?

Well, look, when I say "we know it's not me or Tables" what I mean to say is, that doesn't fit the evidence, so it's not likely. I don't know it for sure. It's possible that SFS and Tables are mafia, they engineered the reveal to gain  town credit, and then were happy to kill O, knowing we would never, ever look at them as mafia again. Could that have happened? Yes. I just doubt it.

I believe that mafia would vote and accuse fellow mafia under certain circumstances. I just don't believe they would do this if they didn't have to. Grujah was going to be lynched until I told everybody to stop. Then I narrowed it down to O and Galzria, and put it to everybody else to say which. Tables said O. For this reason, I think neither me nor Tables should be considered as mafia. If either of us are mafia, we killed fellow mafia O fairly needlessly.

Now, O's fellow mafia may have voted for him. I just assume they wouldn't have led the wagon against him when there was no need of it. So, though Glooble did vote for O, and it was a mitigating factor in previous rounds, it's not the most relevant thing to me anymore.

Frisk, I'm looking at who is accusing who now. Dsell and Glooble are not accusing each other, even though I gave them plenty of opportunity to do so. They are both firing at you. If you and Dsell are mafia, Dsell doesn't accomplish much by convincing the town to kill you. The fact that they both think it's you, but if it's you there's no one left for you to be mafia with except I guess SFS, makes me think it's Glooble and Dsell.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok - I'm just reacting to your statement of things as fact vs. extremely likely.

[Robz888]

Ok - I'm just reacting to your statement of things as fact vs. extremely likely.

Got it. There are NO facts. Only extreme likelihoods. I use one when I mean the other just for the sake of brevity.

[Dsell]

I know we have to assume 2 more mafia but you can't cite "balance issues" as a reason why there must be 2 more. Have you ever balanced a mafia game? Has voltgloss before this? I'm sure that Volt did his utmost to make it balanced, but he said 2 to 4 mafia. We've ruled out 4 with certainty but we can't rule out 2, it's a legitimate option. Whether it seems balanced or not. But anyway, it doesn't change much for right now. Robz, I didn't see Glooble's roleclaim as a threat to myself, you made it that way. Maybe I should be gunning for Glooble, but when I really can't trust anyone, why should I trust you over his claim? It seems unlikely that you're mafia, yes, but would I put a risky gambit past you? Never. Frisk has been scummy for a while now, but his wagon petered out before. I really think we are on to something here and it's frustrating to see it get me so much heat. It's mafia III all over again, but town can win here, too.

I'm a town woodcutter, like Grujah before me. Ok, believing makes you have to believe some funky things, I get that. But believing I'm mafia forces you to accept some truly crazy ideas.

[Robz888]

Dsell, there's no obvious "here are the mafia" scenario that explains the last two evenings. I have to believe crazy things regardless. I'm shocked that Jo was not the SK and Axxle was not a mafia. I truly, strongly believe those things were the best explanations.

But with only 4 possible mafia suspects left from my perspective (you, Frisk, Glooble, and SFS), and two of them are not attacking each other very much and have both made convenient role claims, well, it looks like you two to me.

[Captain_Frisk]

But believing I'm mafia forces you to accept some truly crazy ideas.

Here's a possible scenario that describes you being mafia that I don't think relies on any crazy ideas:

You are the mafia roleblocker.  Someone else (lets say glooble) is your goon.  Night 3 your goon made your night kill, because you wanted to block.  The kill either hit SK for no effect, or was protected by town protection.  You may have even tried to kill Axxle to keep your claim alive, but your goon was roleblocked.

Last night - either your protection prevented a SK kill, or town protection prevented one of the kills.  The other protection failed, or maybe the town only had a 1 shot blocking.

What there are the crazy ideas in this scenario?

[Dsell]

But believing I'm mafia forces you to accept some truly crazy ideas.

Here's a possible scenario that describes you being mafia that I don't think relies on any crazy ideas:

You are the mafia roleblocker.  Someone else (lets say glooble) is your goon.  Night 3 your goon made your night kill, because you wanted to block.  The kill either hit SK for no effect, or was protected by town protection.  You may have even tried to kill Axxle to keep your claim alive, but your goon was roleblocked.

Last night - either your protection prevented a SK kill, or town protection prevented one of the kills.  The other protection failed, or maybe the town only had a 1 shot blocking.

What there are the crazy ideas in this scenario?

No crazy ideas, only false information. Are you saying there is a town roleblocker besides Glooble who has not counterclaimed and blocked Glooble, my supposed goon? Or are you saying that Glooble, who's not my goon, is lying and blocked my actual goon? Perhaps you mean that Axxle was jailed? By a traitorous town doctor?

[Captain_Frisk]

No crazy ideas, only false information. Are you saying there is a town roleblocker besides Glooble who has not counterclaimed and blocked Glooble, my supposed goon? Or are you saying that Glooble, who's not my goon, is lying and blocked my actual goon? Perhaps you mean that Axxle was jailed? By a traitorous town doctor?

Yes - I am saying that in the scenario in which Glooble is your goon - that we have unclaimed town protection.  Neither RobZ, Tables, nor I have claimed anything.  That protection is necessary in order to explain night 3 without the use of the nokill explanation.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Okay, let's say there are 2 mafia left, which is what we all assume, for balance reasons. We know it's not me or Tables, because we led the kill O thing. That leaves:

Frisk-SFS
Frisk-Glooble
Frisk-Dsell
SFS-Glooble
SFS-Dsell
Dsell-Glooble

Glooble and Frisk cannot be a pair. Frisk and Dsell cannot be a pair. So we have:

Frisk-SFS
SFS-Glooble
SFS-Dsell
Dsell-Glooble

If I am willing to rule SFS out entirely, that would actually make it fairly clear who the mafia are. Interestingly enough, SFS has voted for Frisk, and refused to remove the vote. Which is... weird, since Frisk is his most likely scum buddy, if he is mafia.

But if I believe SFS, I am pretty much forced to conclude that Dsell and Glooble are mafia, or at least lying scum.

The thing is that probably all three of Dsell, Frisk, and Glooble are scum. We just have to lynch a mafia, not the SK.

Of the three of them, Glooble is the one whose behavior makes least sense as SK, relative to mafia, I think. So he's the one I would stake as mafia.

Thoughts? I'm really just talking to Tables and SFS at this point.

Robz - I'm concerned about everyone but me at this point, but I am concerned about you and Tables least. Glooble comes and goes on my list, sometimes approximating my level of suspicion for Dsell and Frisk. He may have me fooled, but I believe his roleclaim and target for last night, which means Frisk is scum of one variety or another.

This is not the only data I have on Frisk.  His non-vote for O I read as straight up "won't vote for my partner".  If there were only two mafia in the game, he wouldn't add ANY momentum to a wagon on his partner.  Whether this helps us decide there is only one remaining mafia, I don't know.  I can't speak intelligently to balance issues for a game I've never played.

Frisk is also beginning to juxtapose my name with his, as if to try and find a way to link us.  This is a good ploy if he is one of a mafia pair, because even if he gets lynched, the remaining mafia would not be completely lost, especially if they could get the town to lynch me.  O (who was mafia) aimed a post at me a hundred years ago (885) that said "you and Frisk sure agree on a lot".  It made me laugh, and I replied (in 886) with "For now ". Now I'm being linked with Frisk again (by Frisk), and it feels like a subtle mafia message.

As to Dsell, I keep working back to a portion of night 3.  It is just hard for me to believe that Dsell fired a shot.  If he did, then one of the following had to happen (regardless of the other non-deaths):

A) Dsell was blocked by mafia.  I can't see this happening if Dsell was town, cause I think mafia gains more (in the then-current game state) from the death of a townie Axxle (bonus if Axxle happens to be the SK) than from the confusion they can create by blocking a vig.  I also can't see it happening if Dsell was mafia, because it's too juicy an opportunity for mafia to miss - mafia Dsell could have had a free pass by town for the rest of the game, his roleclaim having been "proven". I also can't see it happening even if mafia suspected Dsell was the SK.  Mafia would just let townie Axxle die, then NK the SK.  My conclusion: Dsell wasn't roleblocked by mafia.

B) Dsell was blocked by town.  I can't see any town player roleblocking him, for multiple reasons.  First, we gain information on TWO players (the target AND Dsell) if he's not blocked.  Second, no one objected to the choice of Axxle as Dsell's target, and there was plenty of opportunity for discussion.  I tried to prompt some of that by asking a lot of question about the relative merits of shooting Frisk over Axxle.  Third,  though we were wrong about Axxle, he looked bad enough that any town member would likely not stop the shot.  My conclusion:  Dsell wasn't roleblocked by mafia.

c) Axxle was protected (specifically by town, as there no mafia or scum with protective powers, and there are no jailkeepers).  This is unlikely for reasons two and three in Item B above. In addition, given the discussions at the time, and the consensus, a townie would have had to be absolutely certain that Axxle was town to protect him and thereby deny us the knowledge about Dsell's claim.  A cop could have had that certainty, but a cop can't protect.  I can't see a doctor protecting Axxle under the conditions at the time.  My conclusion: Axxle wasn't protected.

Which leads me to: Dsell lied. However, I agree that if he is the SK, we need to wait to kill him.  So the next question I need to answer for myself is: was Pops the mafia kill or the SK kill last night?

[Dsell]

Dsell, there's no obvious "here are the mafia" scenario that explains the last two evenings. I have to believe crazy things regardless. I'm shocked that Jo was not the SK and Axxle was not a mafia. I truly, strongly believe those things were the best explanations.

But with only 4 possible mafia suspects left from my perspective (you, Frisk, Glooble, and SFS), and two of them are not attacking each other very much and have both made convenient role claims, well, it looks like you two to me.

Sure. I get this. It's logical from a certain perspective. My role claim definitely looked convenient at the time, though I'm not sure how you can look back on it and say it's convenient for me now. Glooble's claim, well that's tougher. If he's mafia and trying to lynch town, then definitely it's convenient, except that it makes no sense in terms of night 3, and the mafia would want to make a claim that fits into all that to look legitimate. We haven't attacked each other much, and that's because you are the one who asserted that our claims counter each other. As far as I can tell, the most likely night 3 scenario means they don't actually conflict.

I think there should be more analysis on SFS. I think I may attempt that later on today.

Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.

[Robz888]

Okay, the only 4 suspects for mafia are Frisk, Dsell, SFS, and Glooble. 3 of them are attacking the other guy, Frisk. Like, non-stop. I don't see how Frisk can be the only mafia left. If Glooble and Dsell are not lying aboutt heir roles, we had kind of a lot of townie power to help us with... 2 mafia total and an SK? Neither mafia a Godfather, even?

Because I do think there have to be 3 mafia total, and 2 remaining, I tend to see the one person who everybody is going after as the one likely to be innocent. That's Frisk. I think.

[Captain_Frisk]

Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.

Nope. 

I'm suggesting that on night 3, one of the following may have occured - and are not crazy:

1.  Mafia may not have targeted Axxle (to frame his as SK) - or because they thought he was SK and didn't want to waste their shot on bulletproof.  The mafia NK was then blocked by the true SK, or by a doctor.  Actually - you and Glooble being roleblocker + goon and blocking Axxle while not killing him makes sense here if you believed him to be SK.
2.  Non DSell Mafia may have targeted Axxle and were roleblocked by a town roleblocker.

[Robz888]

Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.

Nope. 

I'm suggesting that on night 3, one of the following may have occured - and are not crazy:

1.  Mafia may not have targeted Axxle (to frame his as SK) - or because they thought he was SK and didn't want to waste their shot on bulletproof.  The mafia NK was then blocked by the true SK, or by a doctor.  Actually - you and Glooble being roleblocker + goon and blocking Axxle while not killing him makes sense here if you believed him to be SK.
2.  Non DSell Mafia may have targeted Axxle and were roleblocked by a town roleblocker.

Well, no to that last part. Either Glooble is the Town Roleblocker or there is no Town Roleblocker. If there is one, he would counterclaim. Now, we might have a Doctor, whether or not Glooble is lying.

[Dsell]

Robz, it appears that our only investigative role was a one-shot, and i feel that woodcutters can easily be liabilities to the town rather than assets. So a lot of help could really be a lot of hurt if weren't careful.

[Captain_Frisk]

@RobZ

Well, that was interesting, to say the least. I'm not convinced a massclaim immediately is the best move. I'm also not convinced we couldn't have both a roleblocker AND a doctor, so I'm not even convinced a counterclaim to either role would be beneficial. That said, Glooble's claim doesn't really explain the lack of kills, which makes me wonder... I think he might be rolefishing.

Until a consensus on the way to proceed is reached, do NOT claim Roleblocker or doctor or anything else.

[Robz888]

@RobZ

Well, that was interesting, to say the least. I'm not convinced a massclaim immediately is the best move. I'm also not convinced we couldn't have both a roleblocker AND a doctor, so I'm not even convinced a counterclaim to either role would be beneficial. That said, Glooble's claim doesn't really explain the lack of kills, which makes me wonder... I think he might be rolefishing.

Until a consensus on the way to proceed is reached, do NOT claim Roleblocker or doctor or anything else.

Well I agree that we could have a Roleblocker and a Doctor. And I guess we could have a Roleblocker and a One-Shot Roleblocker. But there's no way we have 2 regular Roleblockers. If there is another Roleblocker, that person knows Glooble is a liar. I don't see anyone pushing the anti-Glooble case as aggressively as I am, so I am concluding that nobody else is a Roleblocker. Truly, if that assumption is false, that person should probably claim...

[Robz888]

Never mind, I guess we need our Roleblocker to stop the SK or mafia kills hopefully, right?

[Captain_Frisk]

@RobZ

Well, that was interesting, to say the least. I'm not convinced a massclaim immediately is the best move. I'm also not convinced we couldn't have both a roleblocker AND a doctor, so I'm not even convinced a counterclaim to either role would be beneficial. That said, Glooble's claim doesn't really explain the lack of kills, which makes me wonder... I think he might be rolefishing.

Until a consensus on the way to proceed is reached, do NOT claim Roleblocker or doctor or anything else.

Well I agree that we could have a Roleblocker and a Doctor. And I guess we could have a Roleblocker and a One-Shot Roleblocker. But there's no way we have 2 regular Roleblockers. If there is another Roleblocker, that person knows Glooble is a liar. I don't see anyone pushing the anti-Glooble case as aggressively as I am, so I am concluding that nobody else is a Roleblocker. Truly, if that assumption is false, that person should probably claim...

I strongly disagree with this.  Glooble already has plenty of suspicion.  If we assume that Glooble and DSell are the mafia, then if we roleblocker vs. doctor, then the person who really wants to know is the serial killer....

[Robz888]

I want to know because I want to know whether we should kill Glooble or not.

Although I see now why we need to keep the uncertainty about the roles going, because it's the only thing that might save us here. The mafia/SK could miss-kill, because they don't know about a Doctor, etc. I get it. It just sort of goes against my nature to not want to publicly figure out who everybody is at this point.

[Dsell]

Frisk, your point 1a is silly because framing Axxle as serial killer blows up in our faces when he flips town. Point 1b, that glooble and I are mafia but thought Axxle was serial killer, is, I must admit, remotely plausible. However, even in that case, it makes sense to shoot him and then have him be set up for a lynch and then be clear when he flips serial killer. It's worth the risk either way. Me being mafia and not shooting Axxle is crazy talk. Yet this is not the case, because Axxle was not blocked and he did not die.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Dsell, there's no obvious "here are the mafia" scenario that explains the last two evenings. I have to believe crazy things regardless. I'm shocked that Jo was not the SK and Axxle was not a mafia. I truly, strongly believe those things were the best explanations.

But with only 4 possible mafia suspects left from my perspective (you, Frisk, Glooble, and SFS), and two of them are not attacking each other very much and have both made convenient role claims, well, it looks like you two to me.

Sure. I get this. It's logical from a certain perspective. My role claim definitely looked convenient at the time, though I'm not sure how you can look back on it and say it's convenient for me now. Glooble's claim, well that's tougher. If he's mafia and trying to lynch town, then definitely it's convenient, except that it makes no sense in terms of night 3, and the mafia would want to make a claim that fits into all that to look legitimate. We haven't attacked each other much, and that's because you are the one who asserted that our claims counter each other. As far as I can tell, the most likely night 3 scenario means they don't actually conflict.

I think there should be more analysis on SFS. I think I may attempt that later on today.

Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.

Yes, I agree that everyone should re-examine me.  For the same reasons, someone should look at Tables. I'll try to get to that, since I'm the guy that got us into the "Tables must be ok" situation.  For now, the two recollections I have on Tables are (and these are not accusations, just observations):

a) Mafia godfather would return "town" to my investigation (as would SK that chose investigative immunity, but I agree with a previous poster that an SK worth his salt would choose the one-shot bulletproof option).

b) Tables reaction on Day2 (in 1214) to my investigation result was (quoting only the applicable part of the post, italics mine for separation from my prose in this post)

"SFS, thanks for that. Now I'm not going to survive past night 2, most likely (unless a doctor protects me)."

This struck me as an odd reaction, because out of the twelve (15 -3) people remaining the morning of Day2, the very worst case scenario (4 mafia, one SK) was seven remaining town.  If you subtract me cause I'm VT at that point (and mafia would be aiming elsewhere, hoping to hit a power role) that leaves 6 town.  I don't think 1 in 6 odds merits a claim of "most likely I die tonight".  However, if Tables were mafia, feigned outrage would be a good play in that circumstance, as it might help to cement presumption of town-ness in our minds.  Also, most people told me what horrible town play it was on my part.  Tables didn't take this tack.

I also think someone should take another look at Robz.  I don't think it would be thorough town play to omit scrutiny of all the folks we're currently reading as town, and I suspect Robz will agree.