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[Captain_Frisk]

Seriously.  Is there any reason to not start voting on this right now?  We could have our night time over the weekend and have a nice fresh day 5 waiting for us Monday morning to put off work

[Axxle]

Seriously.  Is there any reason to not start voting on this right now?  We could have our night time over the weekend and have a nice fresh day 5 waiting for us Monday morning to put off work

Because I'm not mafia and DSell is SK?

Day stuff is my job, but you don't respect my job.

Who should we have lynched yesterday?

[Robz888]

Seriously.  Is there any reason to not start voting on this right now?  We could have our night time over the weekend and have a nice fresh day 5 waiting for us Monday morning to put off work

I'm not sure I want to move quite that quickly, because the discussion is helpful anyway if we turn out wrong, and we haven't even heard from Glooble or Tables yet.

Still, I'm having a hard time coming up with a reason not to lynch Axxle next. There are simply more reasons he would have survived if he's scum (mafia or SK). If he's not scum, the only reason he could have survived is if the scum wanted him to---to create confusion? I'm not sure either scum team would rather have some minimum amount of confusion in exchange for protecting a member of the town, especially given that both scum groups (mafia and SK) want the other to die in the night, and would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.

[Captain_Frisk]

Seriously.  Is there any reason to not start voting on this right now?  We could have our night time over the weekend and have a nice fresh day 5 waiting for us Monday morning to put off work

Because I'm not mafia and DSell is SK?

Day stuff is my job, but you don't respect my job.

Who should we have lynched yesterday?

Pops' lack of commentary on this situation is very concerning. 

However, I believe that even if Tables claimed full cop right now and said hands down Pops was the mafia - I'd still think the case against you is stronger.

[Axxle]

would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.

Excluding a rolecop.

I don't like how you keep assuming things about the setup like it's fact.  You said before you're pretty sure there's no SK.  You say you don't think there's a doctor.  You say you don't think there's a rolecop.  etc

[Axxle]

would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.

Excluding a rolecop.

I don't like how you keep assuming things about the setup like it's fact.  You said before you're pretty sure there's no SK.  You say you don't think there's a doctor.  You say you don't think there's a rolecop.  etc

Meaning it's annoying, not scummy.

[Voltgloss]

would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.

Excluding a rolecop.

I don't like how you keep assuming things about the setup like it's fact.  You said before you're pretty sure there's no SK.  You say you don't think there's a doctor.  You say you don't think there's a rolecop.  etc

No burn intended, but there isn't a rolecop.  No roles beyond those listed in the Intro post can possibly be in this game.

[Axxle]

would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.

Excluding a rolecop.

I don't like how you keep assuming things about the setup like it's fact.  You said before you're pretty sure there's no SK.  You say you don't think there's a doctor.  You say you don't think there's a rolecop.  etc

No burn intended, but there isn't a rolecop.  No roles beyond those listed in the Intro post can possibly be in this game.

Argh.  Need to read that again.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.

Excluding a rolecop.

I don't like how you keep assuming things about the setup like it's fact.  You said before you're pretty sure there's no SK.  You say you don't think there's a doctor.  You say you don't think there's a rolecop.  etc

No burn intended, but there isn't a rolecop.  No roles beyond those listed in the Intro post can possibly be in this game.

And this is essentially a moderator repeat of a previous moderator post, so it shouldn't throw anyone.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh - just to be clear - I didn't really think that Volt was burning Axxle.  +1,000 to volt for being an outstanding mod.

[Axxle]

Oh - just to be clear - I didn't really think that Volt was burning Axxle.  +1,000 to volt for being an outstanding mod.

Seconded.

To clarify what I think the mafia did:
If DSell was a 1shot vig and the mafia let me die then there would be 3 night deaths and DSell would be exonerated and we might lynch mafia today.
If DSell was a 1shot vig and the mafia prevented me from dying then there would be 2 night deaths and DSell would be questioned and a non-mafia would be lynched today (me or DSell) giving mafia almost a second free night phase.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Axxle

I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change.  We need 5 out of 8.  Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it. 

At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Vote: Axxle

I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change.  We need 5 out of 8.  Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it. 

At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.

Frisk, where do you put likelihood that there is precisely one remaining mafia, vs two?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

AFK for the next few hours.

[Axxle]

Took a while, but I upvoted all of Voltgloss's posts.  whew.

Trying to figure out who the mafia could be.  Really wasn't expecting the Joth flip.  I suggest everyone have a theory of who mafia could be if I flip town, because I will.

[Robz888]

Vote: Axxle

I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change.  We need 5 out of 8.  Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it. 

At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.

Frisk, where do you put likelihood that there is precisely one remaining mafia, vs two?

SFS, I personally believe we have only one more mafia and a SK, based on the lack of death last night.

[Captain_Frisk]

As far as I understand it - there are 3 possibilities re # of mafia remaining:

1
2
3

3 is almost 0 because it seems exceptionally likely that we have a serial killer. 

So we have 1 mafia and 1 sk, or 2 mafia and 1 sk.

I know that M3 looked slanted toward mafia... but we have more players, and the town still won that one.  I find it unlikely to think that we would truly have fewer mafia.

Then again, this is my 2nd game of mafia, and the 2 games I read before this were smaller.  Since you asked me to put a % chance on it... I'd say 90%. 

Then there's the game state:  I believe Axxle to be mafia.

If we only had 1 remaining mafia (lets say its Axxle, and he is a roleblocker - pretty much the only way to survive)... the only thing this accomplishes is that he now looks like a bullet proof serial killer.  He survives 1 extra day.

In this situation - Axxle should absolutely not have voted for a plan that results in him being targeted by DSell.  He's screwed.

If Axxle is not mafia - but there is only 1 out there, then Axxle is a bullet proof serial killer.  There is no other way for him to have survived, unless DSell is mafia and targeted someone else and lied about it (why wouldn't he just kill Axxle?)  If this is the way he flips, then I'll entertain the possibility of only 1 remaining mafia - but I'm not sure how it would change the game.  You'd still be hunting mafia. 

I could see an advantage to convincing people that there is only 1 mafia remaining - very useful if Axxle2 flips mafia.

I don't see any advantage in assuming there is only 1 mafia remaining.  Why wouldn't you assume the worst case scenario?

[Axxle]

Vote: Axxle

I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change.  We need 5 out of 8.  Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it. 

At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.

Frisk, where do you put likelihood that there is precisely one remaining mafia, vs two?

SFS, I personally believe we have only one more mafia and a SK, based on the lack of death last night.

2 mafia 1 sk and 1 one shot vig means that the game could end Day 1.  That is dumb, really really dumb, for real.

[Axxle]

Vote: Axxle

I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change.  We need 5 out of 8.  Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it. 

At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.

Frisk, where do you put likelihood that there is precisely one remaining mafia, vs two?

SFS, I personally believe we have only one more mafia and a SK, based on the lack of death last night.

2 mafia 1 sk and 1 one shot vig means that the game could end Day 1.  That is dumb, really really dumb, for real.

Err, night one.

[Axxle]

Vote: Axxle

I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change.  We need 5 out of 8.  Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it. 

At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.

Frisk, where do you put likelihood that there is precisely one remaining mafia, vs two?

SFS, I personally believe we have only one more mafia and a SK, based on the lack of death last night.

2 mafia 1 sk and 1 one shot vig means that the game could end Day 1.  That is dumb, really really dumb, for real.

Err, night one.

And even more likely with 2 vigs.

[Robz888]

Blargh, you're right. I don't know. The lack of death last night is baffling.

[Robz888]

Maybe we should have a massclaim.

We have 8 people left alive. Let's say we believe the roleclaims of SFS and Dsell. That leaves 6 unknown people. If we have 1 SK and at least 1 mafia, that brings the total of unknown roles down to 4. If we think there has to be another 1 mafia at least--and I guess you're right, there probably is--that leaves us with only 3 townies of unknown roles.

I know that I am one of them. And let's say Tables is one, based on SFS's investigation. And then either pops or Glooble. Probably Glooble, whose O vote I always thought was acquitting.

Then everybody else (Pops, Axxle, and Frisk) are a SK or mafia. Hey now, that actually makes some sense.

Of course if Tables was the investigative immune SK, then that would leave room for one of these people to be cleared. Or if I am the SK (which people believe) that could also clear one of them. Finally, if Dsell is a mafia or SK, again, we could have one of them in the clear.

Massclaim?

[Robz888]

Well, kill Axxle, massclaim next round maybe, I guess.

[Axxle]

I just remembered that Mafia might have shot bullet immune SK which puts DSell being 1-shot vig back within the realm of possibility.

[Axxle]

Looking back yesterday, pops is so friggin unhelpful.

I'm willing to venture that the rest of the scum are DSell, Pops, and... err... probably not Robz, Tables, or SFS.  I already think CF is leaning town.  Glooble/pops team and DSell SK?