Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Dsell]

@Robz: who did you shoot at yesterday? It might help us track down mafia.

It's also quite possible that YOU are the SK and bulletproof.

Also, would you elaborate on the jo/C_F interaction that you think makes C_F town?

[Axxle]

Ok - so as long as a town roleblocker didn't block DSell and / or town doctor didn't protect Axxle, then it is confirmed that there is scum within that pair.  Agreed? 

The only other scenarios I can think of are:

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)
- Axxle is really a doctor / roleblocker and falseclaimed VT yesterday - and protected himself from the DSell shot.  This one is even worse because it involves town lying, and intentionally wasting DSell's shot.

Most roles can't target themselves by default.

[Voltgloss]

- Axxle is really a doctor / roleblocker and falseclaimed VT yesterday - and protected himself from the DSell shot. 

Roles cannot self-target.

[Captain_Frisk]

- Axxle is really a doctor / roleblocker and falseclaimed VT yesterday - and protected himself from the DSell shot by targeting DSell. 

Roles cannot self-target.

Thx - Fixed

[Axxle]

And I'm sorry this is being seen as defensive. Perhaps this will help?

Unvote.

Vote: jtotheonah

When I flip town, lynch Axxle and/or whoever drops this hammer.

I want to hmmer on principal. Not going to iPhone hammer though.

[Dsell]

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This is the problem, if the mafia has a roleblocker they had incentive to block my shot whether Axxle was town (or SK) or Mafia. If he's mafia it protects him for at least one night, if he's town it puts a lot of suspicion on both of us.

[Dsell]

And I'm sorry this is being seen as defensive. Perhaps this will help?

Unvote.

Vote: jtotheonah

When I flip town, lynch Axxle and/or whoever drops this hammer.

I want to hmmer on principal. Not going to iPhone hammer though.

But if he's mafia, he knew he would be targeting town. Not hammering on a mostly-inevitable mislynch gets him town points.

[Captain_Frisk]

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This is the problem, if the mafia has a roleblocker they had incentive to block my shot whether Axxle was town (or SK) or Mafia. If he's mafia it protects him for at least one night, if he's town it puts a lot of suspicion on both of us.

That suspicion comes at the cost of a kill.  I agree that it's more plausible than Axxle falseclaiming VT when he could really roleblock you as town, but it still strikes me as unconventional.

@Axxle - I've already answered that accusation from SFS.  Do you want me to dig?

[Robz888]

I take back what I said about strongly considering the possibility Dsell is lying. I'll consider it still, but I sort of totally forgot that we could have a Mafia Roleblocker. Anyway, let's look at the possible scenarios for how Axxle lived:

A) Dsell is lying, and he did not shoot Axxle.
B) Dsell shot Axxle, but Dsell was roleblocked.
C) Dsell shot Axxle, but Axxle was protected by the doctor.
D) Dsell shot Axxle, but Axxle is one-shot immune.

I believe these are the only possible scenarios. Let's examine each of them.

C) This is the one that can be ruled out, I think. Everyone was comfortable with the Axxle shot, even Axxle (!). So if the town has a doctor, I don't know why he would cause such confusion. If he really didn't want Axxle to die, he would have objected to the plan. I also just don't think we have a doctor, at this point.

So I'm ruling out C. As for the rest.

A) If Dsell is lying, and did not shoot Axxle, I can think of only one reason: they are both mafia. Right? Why would Dsell put his reputation on the line if it wasn't worth saving Axxle to him? If Dsell is the SK, he would still want to kill Axxle, I think.

D) If D is true, it can only be true because Axxle is the SK. In this scenario, Dsell could be town or mafia.

B) Here's the most interesting one: the roleblocking one. So, I had totally forgotten about the Mafia Thief, the Roleblocker. Here is the description from the intro thread.

You are Mafia, a Mafia Thief {Roleblocker}.  Your partner(s) are [Player Name(s)].

During the night phase you may talk with your partners here [QuickTopic link].
Each night phase, one of you or your partners may perform the factional kill.
Each night phase, you individually may perform a roleblock on another player in the game.  You cannot block and kill in the same night.

You win when the Mafia obtain a majority or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

Emphasis mine. Let's say Axxle is the Mafia Thief. He knows he needs to protect himself, because he knows for sure Dsell will kill him. So he has to roleblock Dsell. This leaves him unable to perform the factional kill, because he can only do one or the other. This would explain why there was no mafia kill, and would mean that Axxle is the only remaining mafia.

So what about the SK kill? I would guess that we have a town roleblocker as well, and the town roleblocker hit the SK. I guess it's possible the SK did no kill. I guess it's also possible we have 2 mafia and no SK, although that seems really unbalanced, with all these townie one-shot vigs and other roles.

Anyway, in all scenarios, I think Axxle is a scum, and should probably be our lynch. Thoughts?

[Axxle]

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This is a scary scenario, but still doesn't explain where all the shots went.  Mafia and SK would still have wanted to NK someone.

But if he's mafia, he knew he would be targeting town. Not hammering on a mostly-inevitable mislynch gets him town points.

If Joth was hammered then, I would have given no one town points.

@Axxle - I've already answered that accusation from SFS.  Do you want me to dig?

Accusation?

[Robz888]

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This is the problem, if the mafia has a roleblocker they had incentive to block my shot whether Axxle was town (or SK) or Mafia. If he's mafia it protects him for at least one night, if he's town it puts a lot of suspicion on both of us.

I don't think the mafia would block your shot if you were town and making it against a town. In fact, I am certain they wouldn't. The reason is because they know they need to get the SK, they can't win with an SK, still around, and eveyr person who isn't them is a potential SK. So I don't think they would have stopped you from killing Axxle.

[Robz888]

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This is a scary scenario, but still doesn't explain where all the shots went.  Mafia and SK would still have wanted to NK someone.

I think it's very, very important to note that the same mafia person can not roleblock and factional kill. The lack of a mafia factional kill speaks to me of the fact that there is only one remaining mafia, and he chose to do the block instead of the kill.

[Captain_Frisk]

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This is a scary scenario, but still doesn't explain where all the shots went.  Mafia and SK would still have wanted to NK someone.

But if he's mafia, he knew he would be targeting town. Not hammering on a mostly-inevitable mislynch gets him town points.

If Joth was hammered then, I would have given no one town points.

@Axxle - I've already answered that accusation from SFS.  Do you want me to dig?

Accusation?

Sorry - i thought you were accusing me of being mafia for not being willing to hammer because it would point the finger at me per J's instructions.

As for missing shots, town roleblocker blocks SK, Mafia shoots bulletproof SK, or DSell is actually SK and was mafia roleblocked by accident.  Also - both mafia and / or SK could no kill to cause additional confusion as to why Axxle didn't die. 

No matter what though - its unlikely - and this is why I asked for agreement - it is overwhelmingly likely that there is scum in the set of {DSell, Axxle2}.  RobZ suggests that we start with you.  His argument matches what is scribbled in my notebook, but I'm trying to drum up some viable scenario in which you survive without being scum.

[popsofctown]

Why'd you idiots lynch jo

[Captain_Frisk]

I think it's very, very important to note that the same mafia person can not roleblock and factional kill. The lack of a mafia factional kill speaks to me of the fact that there is only one remaining mafia, and he chose to do the block instead of the kill.

I don't think this is fact:

3 semi plausible scenarios i can come up with:
1.  DSell and Axxle are both mafia.  One of them (the shooter) is random thwarted by town doctor protection (or roleblocking - although Axxle2 would be the likely target here).  The other (roleblocker) roleblocks the serial killer.
2.  Town roleblocker hits the serial killer.  Axxle2 is the shooter.  DSell is the town vig.  Mafia roleblocker blocks DSell's vig.
3.  DSell is mafia2, Axxle2 is serial killer.  DSell (shooter) shoots Axxle2 -> bulletproof.  Axxle2's kill is blocked by the town doctor.  Mafia3 smiles and nods. 

Here's the question: We just finished Mafia III - where there were 3 mafia, 1 serial killer, and 9 town.  With more town, would you really expect to have less scum?

[Captain_Frisk]

Why'd you idiots lynch jo

This is a rhetorical question, right?  Clearly - if we are idiots, it explains our behavior.

[Robz888]

Why'd you idiots lynch jo

Fine, you get to gloat this time, Pops. Whatever. Do you have thoughts on how to proceed? Like, we should almost certainly lynch Axxle, right?

[Robz888]

I think it's very, very important to note that the same mafia person can not roleblock and factional kill. The lack of a mafia factional kill speaks to me of the fact that there is only one remaining mafia, and he chose to do the block instead of the kill.

I don't think this is fact:

3 semi plausible scenarios i can come up with:
1.  DSell and Axxle are both mafia.  One of them (the shooter) is random thwarted by town doctor protection (or roleblocking - although Axxle2 would be the likely target here).  The other (roleblocker) roleblocks the serial killer.
2.  Town roleblocker hits the serial killer.  Axxle2 is the shooter.  DSell is the town vig.  Mafia roleblocker blocks DSell's vig.
3.  DSell is mafia2, Axxle2 is serial killer.  DSell (shooter) shoots Axxle2 -> bulletproof.  Axxle2's kill is blocked by the town doctor.  Mafia3 smiles and nods. 

Here's the question: We just finished Mafia III - where there were 3 mafia, 1 serial killer, and 9 town.  With more town, would you really expect to have less scum?

Sorry, I didn't mean to say my interpretation was fact, just that it's a strong contender.

1. Yes, this is a possible scenario. I agree. It might be very likely, except there is no way a town doctor protected Axxle. If he did, we should hang that doctor for treason. The answer: lynch Axxle.

2. Yes, I think town roleblocker hitting SK might be what happened regardless of the whole Axxle/Dsell situation. Under this scenario, we should still kill Axxle, right?

3. Yes, and then lynching Axxle is still pretty good.

All your conclusions lead to Axxle lynch, right? Then we agree.

[Robz888]

I think MIII was un-balanced in favor of scum, especially given the cop mistake that occurred. We could have 2 mafia and 1 SK, with no strong roles, just one-shots.

[Captain_Frisk]

I think you're right RobZ.  The clincher for me is that Axxle2 voted for the plan that would get him shot.  He had to assume protection - either in the form of bulletproof, or protection. 

I can't think of truly plausible scenarios that involve Axxle2 being town and DSell not shooting him.  If DSell had come out and said "Hey guys - I know you told me to shoot Axxle, but I really really really liked Captain_Frisk instead - so I shot at him instead - then this is plausible.

The best I had was:

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This scenario is missing 2 kills though

Axxle2 - can you put forth a plausible scenario in which you are not scum? 

This might be the shortest day in MIV history.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This is a scary scenario, but still doesn't explain where all the shots went.  Mafia and SK would still have wanted to NK someone.

But if he's mafia, he knew he would be targeting town. Not hammering on a mostly-inevitable mislynch gets him town points.

If Joth was hammered then, I would have given no one town points.

@Axxle - I've already answered that accusation from SFS.  Do you want me to dig?

Accusation?

Sorry - i thought you were accusing me of being mafia for not being willing to hammer because it would point the finger at me per J's instructions.

As for missing shots, town roleblocker blocks SK, Mafia shoots bulletproof SK, or DSell is actually SK and was mafia roleblocked by accident.  Also - both mafia and / or SK could no kill to cause additional confusion as to why Axxle didn't die. 

No matter what though - its unlikely - and this is why I asked for agreement - it is overwhelmingly likely that there is scum in the set of {DSell, Axxle2}.  RobZ suggests that we start with you.  His argument matches what is scribbled in my notebook, but I'm trying to drum up some viable scenario in which you survive without being scum.

emphasis mine
Why does this phrasing ring so false to me? It's such an odd concept, the mafia roleblocking somebody by accident. Given they can talk and vote and throw a party and all before deciding on their nightkill. But superimpose the fact Dsell had claimed, had triggered all the attendant scrutiny/discussion, was involved in the dealmaking, etc. Now I grant you that there are viable reasons the mafia may have roleblocked Dsell, but if they did it, it was most certainly NOT by accident.  This is off somehow.

[Robz888]

By the way, if we have any one-shot roleblockers among the town, and you used your powers, please reveal yourselves. There is no point in keeping quiet about it.

[Captain_Frisk]

This is off somehow.

That's true.  I don't really have an explanation.  I think i might have started with the assumption that the mafia could have blocked the SK by accident (meaning random chance), but then realized that there would still be a kill unless DSell was the SK, and as I wrote that in, didn't re-consider that the scenario no longer made sense.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

VOLTGLOSS - JUST SO WE ARE ABSOLUTELY CLEAR

True or false: Whenever there are two mafia remaining, and at least one is a roleblocker, then the roleblocker can exercise his power to roleblock on NightA, AND the OTHER mafia can still make the mafia kill on NightA.

[Voltgloss]

VOLTGLOSS - JUST SO WE ARE ABSOLUTELY CLEAR

True or false: Whenever there are two mafia remaining, and at least one is a roleblocker, then the roleblocker can exercise his power to roleblock on NightA, AND the OTHER mafia can still make the mafia kill on NightA.

True.