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[jotheonah]

Ok, I hate that I have to be the one to bring this up, because it's going to up my scumminess factor 100%

Is it time for a mass fullclaim?

(DON'T DO IT NOW, JUST WEIGH IN ON WHETHER IT'S A GOOD IDEA.)

Basically, if everyone claims we can evaluate the power balance and see how likely Dsell's role claim is to be true. It would also force the scum to either commit to their fake claim early or sacrifice it later, and if we set it up right, it could elicit a scum slip.  I don't know if we should, but it is an option for today and no one was saying it, so I thought I would go ahead and take the bullet.

Of course the big risk is that we have a doctor or a cop or something and we would be outing them.  But the chance to catch all the scum right now might be worth it?

[Robz888]

the big problem is, unlike yesterday, we don't have a rhyming solution.

dsell lynch is swell lynch
jo lynch is go lynch
pops lynch is tops lynch
axxle lynch is ... factual lynch?

"pops lynch is tops lynch" is pretty catchy.

And then the less popular lynches...

tables lynch is fables lynch
robz lynch is sobs lynch
gloob lynch is noob lynch

[Dsell]

It's also possible, though very unlikely, that grujah shot the serial killer and used up their one-shot bulletproof.

[Axxle]

Ugh.  I need to catch up with posts (at about #2728) but I want to post this before I get to work. 

I really don't know what I was going for.  I just strongly believed in DSell's claim and it looked like people were going to lynch so some kind of instinct took over that made me want to protect him at all costs.  I know you guys just can't ignore it since it's out there but... bleh.

[Dsell]

The idea that I'm serial killer is pretty dumb. I would not have made that huge argument that pointed the FOS squarely at myself.

[Robz888]

since we know Vigs were not responsible for those kills

This is not a fact.  Grujah could have killed insomniac / theorel - and either collided with a mafia kill / sk kill OR there could have been random protection.

But Grujah only had one-shot. So then the SK collided was was blocked on whatever day Grujah did the kill, and not on the other day? Yeah, that's possible.

@RobZ
What % chance do you believe DSell is telling the truth?
If he is town, what is the value of his un-used kill vs. the uncertainty that having him alive causes - as I don't believe we can clear him short of an investigative roleclaim. 

Asking myself these questions - I am starting to view lynching DSell as the "safe" play - and then look at everyone's interactions with DSell and his reads in that context on Day 4.  If DSell is SK, we're down to 1 night kill.  Even if he isn't, the worst that we're down to is 3 town - 2 mafia - 1 serial killer after the night.

The fact that DSell doesn't want to announce his kill target makes me slightly suspicious - but I can see both arguments.

Frisk, I can't put a % chance on it. I'm probably 55-45 in favor of him being a liar. I really don't know, though. At this point I think any combination is possible. There's just nothing to rule out, anymore. We could have Tables the Sk and Jo and Pops mafia. We could have Dsell and Axxle mafia and Frisk the SK. We could have Jo the SK and Axxle and Frisk the mafia.

I think it's going to be easier to pick up the pieces tomorrow when, like, a quarter of us are dead.

A good reason to keep Dsell alive anyway is that it puts the mafia and SK in an awkward position regarding him. SK doesn't know whether he's mafia or town, mafia doesn't know whether he's SK or town. There's a chance he doesn't use his shot, in which case they would regret not killing him up, but neither the mafia nor SK want to overlap a kill with each other. So do they go for him? If he dies, or there are three deaths, we learn the truth about him. Do they not kill him, or anyone, in order to make him look suspicious? But if he's neither, and both groups do that, we could actually have a night of no deaths! Which is good.

So I think keeping Dsell alive might be worth the nighttime consternation it causes our enemies, regardless of what role it is. It might result in us getting lucky.

[jotheonah]

ummmmmm did people see my post? because of all the possible reactions, one I definitely didn't see coming was it being completely ignored...

[Captain_Frisk]

The idea that I'm serial killer is pretty dumb. I would not have made that huge argument that pointed the FOS squarely at myself.

I'm not at all convinced this is what you are, but it's not an unreasonable theory. @L-1 - you felt the need to claim something.  At least a vig variant would give you an excuse to use your powers at least 1 more time.  Full vig might have been a safer claim as a serial killer - although it would be harder to keep justifying why you are alive night after night if you are mafia.

@jotheonah - yes I did skip over that post.  I've never been involved in a massclaim - so I have no opinion.  Looked pretty good in M3 though.

[Dsell]

I think mass roleclaim is bad. In Mafia III it only worked because we had Axxle as rolecop.

[Captain_Frisk]

the big problem is, unlike yesterday, we don't have a rhyming solution.

dsell lynch is swell lynch
jo lynch is go lynch
pops lynch is tops lynch
axxle lynch is ... factual lynch?

"pops lynch is tops lynch" is pretty catchy.

And then the less popular lynches...

tables lynch is fables lynch
robz lynch is sobs lynch
gloob lynch is noob lynch

Hey - don't leave me out

Frisk lynch is ...risk lynch?  Wisk lynch?
SFS lynch is ... orange.

[jotheonah]

I actually thought about posting "Frisk lynch is risk lynch" but I was afraid it might actually catch on, and I do kinda want to lynch you still (sorry).

[Captain_Frisk]

It's also possible, though very unlikely, that grujah shot the serial killer and used up their one-shot bulletproof.

Along these lines - the mafia may have done the same thing.  I guess you didn't notice any of your night kills failing?

[Robz888]

Frisk lynch is bisque lynch. Anyway...

Jo, I've thought about the massclaim option. I'm sort of supportive of it, but it's probably a bad idea. Because 2-3 of us could just be lying. And it does tell the mafia and SK who to target. Of course, I'm not sure that either the mafia or SK could claim any role, because they would fear being murdered by the other.... Which now that I think about it, makes Dsell's claim more likely. If he's lying, and is a scum, whichever scum group he isn't a part of may just kill him. Maybe? Gosh, I wonder if they're more confused than we are.

We should PROBABLY wait to next round for massclaim. I don't think it helps us out here.

[Glooble]

SFS lynch is less-than-best lynch.

I don't think a mass roleclaim would reduce confusion. If we still have two more mafia and a SK (I know we might only have one mafia, but this is worst case scenario) and all the scum fakeclaim, then the town has a lot of potentially very confusing information parsing out which claims are true. The SK might also be confused, but the mafia more than like get to figure out the remaining town power role. If we have one. You'd think if we had a doctor/jailkeeper they would have blocked at least one kill by now, but with mafia, Sk, and multiple one-shot vigs, maybe they did.

Another thing is, right now even if we don't have a doctor or jailkeeper, I'm willing to bet the fear of such a role has saved Tables and SFS's lives the past few nights. The only reason I could think scum wouldn't target them (aside from the staggeringly unlikely scenario where Tables is the Godfather) is fear of a protective role. So if we tell the scum that there is no protective role, one of those two will probably die tonight. We should be aware of that.

[Glooble]

Posted this before I saw Robz's reply, just fyi. Also, what I said about "why not kill jo" did indeed mean "why didn't DSell kill jo?" but I understand how my wording was unclear.

[popsofctown]

Dsell needs to have his nightkill selected for him, and then perform it.  Announcing it isn't enough, scumDsell would just announce a townie's name.  Lynches are democratically decided the way this will be, town overall exert more control. 

If he doesn't want to do it he can die.

[Robz888]

Dsell needs to have his nightkill selected for him, and then perform it.  Announcing it isn't enough, scumDsell would just announce a townie's name.  Lynches are democratically decided the way this will be, town overall exert more control. 

If he doesn't want to do it he can die.

Yes, yes absolutely. Yes.

[Captain_Frisk]

brisk lynch!  That one is alot more powerful... a nice walk on an autumn day over to have a brisk lynch of good old Captain_Frisk.

---- so where does this leave us? ----

We all want to lynch everyone else, except for Tables and SFS... and we want to let DSell live for a day, and we probably want him to target someone.

List time:

That leaves 6 of us:

The double-bad voters:
pops
Jonah
Frisk

The potential bussers:
RobZ
Glooble
Axxle

Semi-off the table:
SFS
Tables
DSell

Note: I'm going to assume 2 mafia + 1 serial killer for the rest here - because after looking at the setup of M3 - I tend to think that we can't have less scum for more people - and since no-one has counterclaimed DSell - we have unexplained night kills which implies SK.

Would the mafia tend to split up on the potential O bussing, or all stay in one pod?    If one could bus, then why not both?  I'm having a hard time viewing both Jonah and Pops as mafia with O.  I could believe any combination of RobZ / Glooble / Axxle2, with a little less suspicion on Glooble - although the same PoE analysis that pointed @ DSell would point to him.

I could see all of us as a Serial Killer, including the folks off the table - except for SFS.

I'm leaning toward an Axxle2 lynch + a DSell target on... I don't know who.  I'm starting to believe DSell, and the double bad voters are so scummy that it's almost like we're begging for it.

Is it time for a pops / Tables style suspicion list?

[Dsell]

@pops, that's pretty much what I meant, anyway. I just want to do a formal announcement so that it's clear or in case there is no consensus.

[Robz888]

brisk lynch!  That one is alot more powerful... a nice walk on an autumn day over to have a brisk lynch of good old Captain_Frisk.

---- so where does this leave us? ----

We all want to lynch everyone else, except for Tables and SFS... and we want to let DSell live for a day, and we probably want him to target someone.

List time:

That leaves 6 of us:

The double-bad voters:
pops
Jonah
Frisk

The potential bussers:
RobZ
Glooble
Axxle

Semi-off the table:
SFS
Tables
DSell

Note: I'm going to assume 2 mafia + 1 serial killer for the rest here - because after looking at the setup of M3 - I tend to think that we can't have less scum for more people - and since no-one has counterclaimed DSell - we have unexplained night kills which implies SK.

Would the mafia tend to split up on the potential O bussing, or all stay in one pod?    If one could bus, then why not both?  I'm having a hard time viewing both Jonah and Pops as mafia with O.  I could believe any combination of RobZ / Glooble / Axxle2, with a little less suspicion on Glooble - although the same PoE analysis that pointed @ DSell would point to him.

I could see all of us as a Serial Killer, including the folks off the table - except for SFS.

I'm leaning toward an Axxle2 lynch + a DSell target on... I don't know who.  I'm starting to believe DSell, and the double bad voters are so scummy that it's almost like we're begging for it.

Is it time for a pops / Tables style suspicion list?

Um, actually this makes me suspicious of you. There is no way I am a member of the mafia. I derailed the killing of innocent Grujah, requested a consensus on whether to kill O or Galzria, then was like the first or second person to vote for O, and then O died and was mafia. So the fact that you can believe any mafia combination that includes me (and you said Glooble was the one with less suspicion??? Not me?), makes you look very, very bad, once again. Because it looks like you forgot the fact that I cannot be mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

@RobZ Testy!

[Robz888]

@RobZ Testy!

Well yes, I am testy. I cannot be the mafia, it is ludicrous to suggest otherwise. I have admitted that I could be the Serial Killer, and I understand why my speeches have made people think I'm the SK. Emphatically, I cannot be the mafia.

New plan: Lynch Jo, shoot Frisk.

[jotheonah]

0-2 pops
3-5 me
6-8 Frisk

9, try again.

Lynch Axxle, Dsell shoots whoever the last digit of this post's timestamp lands on.

[jotheonah]

pops it is.

[Captain_Frisk]

I have thought about suggesting myself for this, because I fully realize that I will eventually be lynched, unless we have already discovered the SK. Since I believe Jo is probably most likely to be the SK--and he is the one who keeps reminding everybody (along with Tables, ugh) that I am the top SK suspect--I would agree to this, I guess, on the condition that we lynch Jo. If Jo doesn't flip SK, Dsell can shoot me.

The problem here is two-fold. One is a theoretical problem that doesn't actually exist, because I'm actually town, but I'll point it out anyway: the SK is either investigative immune or one-shot immune. If it's me, and I'm one-shot immune, Dsell wouldn't be able to kill me. Again, I know this is not the case, but someone will probably bring it up. Of course, this is the problem no matter who we shoot.

The other problem is that if Jo flips town, great, I have agreed to be killed. I am also town, I die. And that's very possibly town loss right there.

I did agree with you previously - but then it was this post above that I didn't like.  The semi-agreeing to be killed thing felt wrong to me - for the same reasons that we've been giving Jonah and Axxle.