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[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

As I was falling asleep, I thought of something I've been trying to remember ever since I posted 2548. Jo voted for himself 1793, and in 1800 he closed with this sentence:

"I'll unvote when Robz is convinced that I'm really ok with dying and not just faking it."


15 minutes and 3 posts later (1803) he unvoted, having heard nothing from Robz, and deflected with:

"But Robz, one peep out of you and it goes right back on."

Now I know we don't really lynch liars, but I thought I'd bring this up for the Day 4's de rigueur discussion and dismissal of a Jo lynch.

I'm not trying to derail the Dsell/Tables situation, just didnt want to not remember again in the morning.  Good night.

[Robz888]

Okay,

If we believe Dsell, and I suppose we should, it seems the only thing to do is lynch Jo, and have Dsell shoot Axxle. That leaves:

Dsell, Robz888, SFS, Tables, Pops, Glooble, Frisk

Let's say we lose SFS and Tables to the SK and remaining mafia member. That leaves, tomorrow:

Dsell, Robz888, Pops, Glooble, Frisk

As long as that group contains no more than 2 scum (probably 1 mafia + plus SK) we are still okay-ish. And if Jo and Axxle were both scum misses, Dsell is probably a liar.

Does this sound good?

[Robz888]

Separately, I should note again that I just... don't... buy the Dsell claim. Even though I should. Don't know what to do about it, though. Killing him seems like a huge risk.

Thoughts?

[Dsell]

If I were mafia, I would have hammered C_F because everyone knows that looking for scum in the hammer is a fallacy...

Axxle being suicidal is really crazy. I see no reason why he would want this is if he's town (or mafia for that matter) so I tend to agree with pops that it's a survivalist tell. So now I actually am pretty suspicious. But that's what he's going for anyway...he wants us to lynch him? Axxle are you being a martyr so your analysis will be proved true? Because I HIGHLY disagree with this idea. We should ALWAYS be trying to lynch scum, I think.

Jo still holds that weird special position where I don't know if he's mafia or SK but it seems likely enough that he's one or the other.

Dsell, Robz888, Pops, Glooble, Frisk

As long as that group contains no more than 2 scum (probably 1 mafia + plus SK) we are still okay-ish. And if Jo and Axxle were both scum misses, Dsell is probably a liar.

See, this is the frustrating thing about the position I'm put in. I have no control (well minimal control) over the lynch, and apparently everyone else (including the mafia!) is going to tell me who to kill at night, and if it doesn't work out, then lynching me is the backup plan. Oh and we may have a roleblocker/jailer/bulletproof SK in the mix! I'm mostly inclined to neither confirm nor deny whether I will perform the agreed-upon kill in order to give the mafia the least information possible. I could probably be convinced to follow blindly but I frankly don't like it. I can say that if I survive the night I will be 100% honest about my night actions tomorrow.

[Robz888]

Dsell, just so you know, if you do not confirm who you are going to kill ahead of time, I will absolutely call upon the town to lynch you right now. So, we need this settled before anything can go forward.

There is no way to verify your actions unless you announce your shot choice ahead of time. I believe it should be Axxle, and we should lynch Jo (as I am more worried about the latter being a one-shot immune SK, and still you, should have shot him last night.)

Why did you not shoot Galzria or Jo last night, again? It was clear that Galzria was a high target to be mafia, something basically everybody thought, and you had your own suspicions about Jo. This is why it's hard for me to believe your claim.

[Dsell]

I didn't shoot Galz or Jo because I was not SURE they were mafia, and didn't want to ruin the one advantage I could give the town. Woodcutter has so much potential to hurt the town that it seems like a no-brainer to me to wait until the end game where both your reads are based on more information AND you simply have a better chance of hitting mafia by virtue of a smaller pool of options. In my opinion, it's better to have not used the shot than to use the shot on town. Even if they seemed extremely scummy to me (and I don't think I can say that about either jo or Galz, quite scummy, but not overwhelmingly so) I think it's always better to wait.

I really don't see how this is not completely obvious. Do you trust your reads so much that you would feel confident to use your single shot on night 1 or 2?

[Robz888]

I didn't shoot Galz or Jo because I was not SURE they were mafia, and didn't want to ruin the one advantage I could give the town. Woodcutter has so much potential to hurt the town that it seems like a no-brainer to me to wait until the end game where both your reads are based on more information AND you simply have a better chance of hitting mafia by virtue of a smaller pool of options. In my opinion, it's better to have not used the shot than to use the shot on town. Even if they seemed extremely scummy to me (and I don't think I can say that about either jo or Galz, quite scummy, but not overwhelmingly so) I think it's always better to wait.

I really don't see how this is not completely obvious. Do you trust your reads so much that you would feel confident to use your single shot on night 1 or 2?

Yes, but you have to use the shot now, and it's not so fundamentally different than if you had used it last night, except now we get in big trouble if it turns out you were lying, or are wrong about who the right kill is. Do you see that? And I think most people would shoot by now. That was my understanding, that most people with the ability to kill usually use it, fairly soon. I think if I were you I would have used it on either Galz or Jo last night.

[Glooble]

Ugh, bad timing. I was at a show last night, got home late, went to bed because I have to be at work in 45 minutes. So in brief:

I am not a vig.

I am currently leaning towards lynching Axxle. I am not sure I believe DSell's claim, but it is supported by his earlier behavior. If it's a mafia gambit, he's laid some groundwork for it.

[Glooble]

And I agree if we let DSell live, we need to assign him a target and lynch him if that person doesn't die. That way if DSell is mafia, the town controls the mafia's kill tonight.

CF seems the best choice to me, merely based on POE.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-13

Axxle (2): popsofctown, jotheonah
jotheonah (1): Axxle

Not voting {6}: Dsell, Glooble, Robz888, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Captain_Frisk

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Thursday, July 12, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[Captain_Frisk]

Why not kill jo is the big question. I totally buy multiple 1-shot Vigs.

And I agree if we let DSell live, we need to assign him a target and lynch him if that person doesn't die. That way if DSell is mafia, the town controls the mafia's kill tonight.

CF seems the best choice to me, merely based on POE.

These posts aren't too far apart.

@RobZ - killing DSell is less "risky" than letting him live - but only because the worst case scenario is that he's telling the truth - but then everything else goes wrong.  (We mislynch someone else, DSell kills an innocent, Mafia Night Kills, Serial Killer Night Kills (and hits town)

The worst case on killing him is:
- Falselynch DSell, Serial Killer Kill on town, Mafia NK on town.

Now, on the flip side - we can also potentially win straight out letting DSell live:
Lynch Mafia, Mafia NK's serial killer, DSell Shoots mafia.

How do we validate DSell's claim?  Lets say he claims to shoot someone - like me. 

Tomorrow - the rest of you wake up, and SFS and I are both dead (town).  This doesn't actually clear DSell.  He could actually still be a serial killer.

There is also the problem of the announcing of target:

- If he is truthful - and announces - mafia / SK can elect to No kill / target the same person to make DSell look like a liar - and incite us to lynch him tomorrow.
- If he doesn't announce - then he doesn't prove anything - because he can then react to the result of the night kills and tailor his claim appropriately.  Let's say hypothetically that tomorrow only 1 person dies.  Dsell can claim his target was blocked - drawing out a role claim.  Sure - DSell will get killed for lying, but he was going to die today anyway - and he got an extra day of life and a roleclaim out of it.

Is this Wine in Front of Me?  It's too early to drink it.

I'm on board with a DSell lynch or an Axxle / Jo lynch / kill combo, but I have to say that I'm nervous on both.  How do I get down from this fence?

[jotheonah]

Why not kill jo is the big question. I totally buy multiple 1-shot Vigs.

Pretty sure he meant "Why didn't Dsell kill jo?" is the big question, not "Why don't we kill jo?"

Given that that's consistent with his posting to date.

[Captain_Frisk]

Why not kill jo is the big question. I totally buy multiple 1-shot Vigs.

Pretty sure he meant "Why didn't Dsell kill jo?" is the big question, not "Why don't we kill jo?"

Given that that's consistent with his posting to date.

Fair point - I imagine that you and I read Jo killing differently, but now that you point it - out - that does make sense.

[jotheonah]

What about having Dsell shoot Robz? I'm still pretty convinced he's SK.

We were all pretty much agreed that the prime kills today were myself or CF, probably CF, when Robz came along and threw Dsell into the mix. Much like yesterday, when he halted the Grujah wagon and redirected to O. If we lynch Dsell, the lynch has Robz's fingerprints all over it.  So IF Dsell is town, Robz seems like a great target to me.

Only the SK has a wincon that wants to hit scum one day and town the next.

If Dsell is scum, then we are maybe enticing him to kill a townie? But that's not so different than what he would have done if we hadn't forced him into a fakeclaim.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Volt - do we really have till Thursday?  You said it would be a 24 hour extension - but i thought the original deadline was Tuesday?  You giving us a break for 4th of July?

[Voltgloss]

@Volt - do we really have till Thursday?  You said it would be a 24 hour extension - but i thought the original deadline was Tuesday?  You giving us a break for 4th of July?

See bottom of my post #2617, quoted below.  Also, note that the deadline is (and has always been) next week, not this week.

Vote Count 3-9

[votecount snipped]

Lynch Deadline:  Thursday, July 12, 4:59 p.m. EDT

NOTE:  I just now realized I'd been saying "Tuesday, July 11" in previous votecounts - forgetting that Tuesday is July 10.  My intent was always for the lynch deadline to be Wednesday, July 11.  Extending the deadline due to the forum outage clears this up:  the lynch deadline is definitely Thursday, July 12.  Apologies for the confusion.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh wow.  I was fully thinking that the deadline was originally today!  Reading comprehension failure.

[Robz888]

What about having Dsell shoot Robz? I'm still pretty convinced he's SK.

We were all pretty much agreed that the prime kills today were myself or CF, probably CF, when Robz came along and threw Dsell into the mix. Much like yesterday, when he halted the Grujah wagon and redirected to O. If we lynch Dsell, the lynch has Robz's fingerprints all over it.  So IF Dsell is town, Robz seems like a great target to me.

Only the SK has a wincon that wants to hit scum one day and town the next.

If Dsell is scum, then we are maybe enticing him to kill a townie? But that's not so different than what he would have done if we hadn't forced him into a fakeclaim.

I have thought about suggesting myself for this, because I fully realize that I will eventually be lynched, unless we have already discovered the SK. Since I believe Jo is probably most likely to be the SK--and he is the one who keeps reminding everybody (along with Tables, ugh) that I am the top SK suspect--I would agree to this, I guess, on the condition that we lynch Jo. If Jo doesn't flip SK, Dsell can shoot me.

The problem here is two-fold. One is a theoretical problem that doesn't actually exist, because I'm actually town, but I'll point it out anyway: the SK is either investigative immune or one-shot immune. If it's me, and I'm one-shot immune, Dsell wouldn't be able to kill me. Again, I know this is not the case, but someone will probably bring it up. Of course, this is the problem no matter who we shoot.

The other problem is that if Jo flips town, great, I have agreed to be killed. I am also town, I die. And that's very possibly town loss right there.

[Captain_Frisk]

If we believe J's theory - there's no point in trying to shoot you - but rather we should lynch you instead.  If we try to shoot you - we don't stop your kill. 

How about:

Lynch J (policy lynch on self preservation)
Shoot Axxle (policy shot as per above)

Lynch you tomorrow for being SK if J isn't?

[Robz888]

If we believe J's theory - there's no point in trying to shoot you - but rather we should lynch you instead.  If we try to shoot you - we don't stop your kill. 

How about:

Lynch J (policy lynch on self preservation)
Shoot Axxle (policy shot as per above)

Lynch you tomorrow for being SK if J isn't?

Yeah, that was my earlier plan. I like it, except you and Dsell survive. But we can't get everything we want...

[Tables]

I'm beginning to think there are too many things here that can go wrong. In particular, has anyone suggested that the plan might not be a good idea (name two people, lynch one, shoot one)? If not, the mafia might know it's to their advantage, they can coax us away from shooting them and/or can prevent the kill. If that's the case, we're essentially being lead to a double-mislynch.

But at the same time... it's DSell himself who seems most unhappy with the plan. I find it hard to put these two pieces of information together. Unless... DSell is mafia, his buddy is happy to blend in, but DSell has realised they won't be able to legitimately make two kills. Which... still doesn't answer why his buddy is acting differently. Hmm. Any thoughts on this, particularly from Robz/SFS/Glooble?

[Robz888]

I'm beginning to think there are too many things here that can go wrong. In particular, has anyone suggested that the plan might not be a good idea (name two people, lynch one, shoot one)? If not, the mafia might know it's to their advantage, they can coax us away from shooting them and/or can prevent the kill. If that's the case, we're essentially being lead to a double-mislynch.

But at the same time... it's DSell himself who seems most unhappy with the plan. I find it hard to put these two pieces of information together. Unless... DSell is mafia, his buddy is happy to blend in, but DSell has realised they won't be able to legitimately make two kills. Which... still doesn't answer why his buddy is acting differently. Hmm. Any thoughts on this, particularly from Robz/SFS/Glooble?

There are too many things that can go wrong no matter what we do. The problem with not doing the two people die plan is huge, though: we will have a mafia nk, and a SK nk, and we will have no idea whether Dsell was lying or not (if we have 3 kills, we can believe him, I guess).

I am also bothered by Dsell's take. For one thing, it baffles me that he didn't kill Jo or Galzria with his night shot. And, I don't like that he seems to want to not tell us who, or whether, he makes the night kill. And obviously he should realize why that's not okay.

Here's another line of possible thinking: It makse the most sense at this point that the Serial Killer was responsible for killing either Theorel/Insomniac and then either Galzria/Grujah, since we know Vigs were not responsible for those kills. Who do we think, as SK, would have killed those people? I've maintained that Insomniac and Grujah were the mafia kills, because those were both largely innocent seeming people who the mafia wouldn't want to keep around. Does the SK want to murder scum, rather than town? That would explain the targets. Do those targets indict certain people? I can't really see that it does. Although again, I always thought Dsell was the one who killed Theorel.

[jotheonah]

the big problem is, unlike yesterday, we don't have a rhyming solution.

dsell lynch is swell lynch
jo lynch is go lynch
pops lynch is tops lynch
axxle lynch is ... factual lynch?

"pops lynch is tops lynch" is pretty catchy.

[Captain_Frisk]

since we know Vigs were not responsible for those kills

This is not a fact.  Grujah could have killed insomniac / theorel - and either collided with a mafia kill / sk kill OR there could have been random protection.

@RobZ
What % chance do you believe DSell is telling the truth?
If he is town, what is the value of his un-used kill vs. the uncertainty that having him alive causes - as I don't believe we can clear him short of an investigative roleclaim. 

Asking myself these questions - I am starting to view lynching DSell as the "safe" play - and then look at everyone's interactions with DSell and his reads in that context on Day 4.  If DSell is SK, we're down to 1 night kill.  Even if he isn't, the worst that we're down to is 3 town - 2 mafia - 1 serial killer after the night.

The fact that DSell doesn't want to announce his kill target makes me slightly suspicious - but I can see both arguments.

[Dsell]

I think I'm ok with announcing the kill ahead of time. I was concerned that doing that and allowing others to decide upon who the kill will be gives too much influence to the mafia, but I can see how it's an impossible-to-verify situation that way. This is going to be confusing for both the town and the mafia either way so I just hope the mafia screws up or reveals their hand along the way. I think what I should do is to take the suggestions of everyone and make a final choice, announcing who I will shoot during the night, before the night starts. So please withhold from hammering the lynchee until I get a chance to make that announcement, because if I'm not on when night starts and I haven't revealed, I'm screwed.

As everyone's pointed out, the thing that worries me most is a bulletproof sk or a roleblocker, who could potentially frame myself and the person I decide to shoot, if they're town. If they're mafia, they'd be able to block but we may be on to them, which would put town in a strong position. If it's a serial killer I'd likely be dead anyway, and if that is the case the lynch is obvious. If they don't kill me or they're not bulletproof town is again in a strong position.