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[popsofctown]

Jo wtf dude.  surely there's something in the rules about copy-pasting from the QT.

[popsofctown]

Unless you can establish why you need to know, I won't answer.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.

1) I need to know because I'm a player in this game.
2) I need to know because the only other player who took this approach to dodging my question turned out to be mafia.
3) I need to know because I allowed the only other player who took this approach to dodging my question to successfully dodge my questions.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what approach needs to be taken to escape my examination.
4) I need to know because early on I made a big deal about holding everyone accountable for what they write, and that's what I'm doing here.
5) I need to know because to fail to hold you accountable would make me feel like a owaitIcantusethatwordorPopsmightwannavoteforme (but it sort of rhymes re-suplicant.  Sort of.)

I've already posted my analysis of that post and why it gave me a townread, and I did so day 1. 

During those 56 seconds or whatever it was, I reread your post and realized the correct interpretation.  I'm a fast reader I guess.  I can read a paragraph in a few seconds.  It's amazing.  You'd think there'd be competitions for this.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

3). His playstyle does not suggest mafia to me. He was too irritating, and indeed, it got him into some trouble. We have killed irritants for less. I can't see him deciding to play that way as mafia.

[sarcasm] The mafia team is me, pops, and O. Our master plan was to all three play crazy, irritate everyone, and get ourselves lynched ASAP. We're really good at this game. [/sacrasm]

But like you said in 919, "you can't argue with results".

[jotheonah]

3). His playstyle does not suggest mafia to me. He was too irritating, and indeed, it got him into some trouble. We have killed irritants for less. I can't see him deciding to play that way as mafia.

[sarcasm] The mafia team is me, pops, and O. Our master plan was to all three play crazy, irritate everyone, and get ourselves lynched ASAP. We're really good at this game. [/sacrasm]

But like you said in 919, "you can't argue with results".

You've either got a memory like a steel trap or ... or I don't even know, that was impressive.

Yeah, though. The question you have to ask yourself is not just "is it working?" but "did we have any reason to suspect or even hope that it would work?"

I for one am expecting O's accomplices to be a good deal subtler than him in playstyle.

[Captain_Frisk]

Let's tread carefully.

Deadline is next Tuesday - It's not super soon - but we managed to come down to the wire on Day 2 - and that was with an extra week on account of DSell V/La. 

I'm finding the pile on me very interesting, but I'm not sure what to make of it yet.  I should be suspicious - but I don't understand why I am more suspicious than J or Pops.  Pops getting off the hook for attacking O strikes me as odd when he didn't vote for him.  J getting off the hook for being J is also interesting.

My voting history looks scummy - and I can't yet decide if Pops' vote is just a bad read - or if he's pushing for it because he knows that I'm a juicy target who isn't actually scum.  I tend to think that the remaining Mafia members won't push super hard to lynch me - because they know they are in deep [saboteur] when I flip. 

RobZ - are you planning on posting your suspicions at any point? 

@DSell - I had O in my "maybe willing to lynch" bucket during the list creation - not quite the "willing to lynch" you are trying to pin on me.  When the "case" was put together - I didn't see anything that looked out of place for O behavior (this is the same dude who (as town) - gave a suspected serial killer a perfect excuse to 50/50 shot at shooting him or me).  It felt to me like we were just randomly picking someone who looked reasonably scummy that we could lynch without any real reason. 

Props to Tables - no matter what happens today - I look forward to the after-discussion on how on earth that worked.

[Captain_Frisk]

The scum choice is to hammer the sucker. We're talking about the textbook busing situation. And saying that CF and I are scum because we were hanging around not hammering is just silly.

J - please don't put me in the same sentence with you.  I see you either trying to get me in trouble when you flip Mafia - or clear yourself when I flip town. 

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Unless you can establish why you need to know, I won't answer.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.

1) I need to know because I'm a player in this game.
2) I need to know because the only other player who took this approach to dodging my question turned out to be mafia.
3) I need to know because I allowed the only other player who took this approach to dodging my question to successfully dodge my questions.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what approach needs to be taken to escape my examination.
4) I need to know because early on I made a big deal about holding everyone accountable for what they write, and that's what I'm doing here.
5) I need to know because to fail to hold you accountable would make me feel like a owaitIcantusethatwordorPopsmightwannavoteforme (but it sort of rhymes re-suplicant.  Sort of.)

I've already posted my analysis of that post and why it gave me a townread, and I did so day 1. 

During those 56 seconds or whatever it was, I reread your post and realized the correct interpretation.  I'm a fast reader I guess.  I can read a paragraph in a few seconds.  It's amazing.  You'd think there'd be competitions for this.

Excellent non-answer, especially given the lack of antecedents.  Please, kind sir, give me post #'s for the red "posted", the purple "that post" and the maroon "your post" you reference. (Hopefully, they are all the same post, and I've not troubled you unduly.)

There should be competitions for correctly evaluating the worth of the time wasted for two players when questions remain unanswered versus the potential advantage gained by mafia from some small insight into the thinking of a player already acknowledged as inscrutable.  In such competitions, extra credit should be given when the latter variable is properly weighted for a) the fact that some players might change their style from game to game and b) the potential gain in credibility for a scum/mafia  player by expressing reluctance to enlighten scum/mafia players.

[Dsell]

@DSell - I had O in my "maybe willing to lynch" bucket during the list creation - not quite the "willing to lynch" you are trying to pin on me.

This is true, didn't mean to misrepresent. Your first two categories of "Want to lynch" and "Maybe willing to lynch" don't seem to have much in-between. But whatever, that's semantics. And my original point that you appeared to say one thing but do another is still valid, although as jo pointed out, there was plenty of incentive for mafia to hammer. Huh.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-2

Captain_Frisk (2): Axxle, popsofctown
jotheonah (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft

Not voting {6}: Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Tables, jotheonah

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

The scum choice is to hammer the sucker. We're talking about the textbook busing situation. And saying that CF and I are scum because we were hanging around not hammering is just silly.

J - please don't put me in the same sentence with you.  I see you either trying to get me in trouble when you flip Mafia - or clear yourself when I flip town.

Sorry. Saying that I'm scum for not hammering is silly. Saying that CF is sum for not hammering is perfectly acceptable. That better?

[Robz888]

Okay, I have been looking back over everything quite extensively.

My first big discovery is not so much a discovery as something I simply remembered: Frisk isn't a mafia member. Why? Here's why:

Vote Count 2-3

jotheonah (2): Galzria, Dsell
Glooble (1): Captain_Frisk
Galzria (1): jotheonah
Captain_Frisk (2): popsofctown, O

Not voting {6}: Robz888, Glooble, Tables, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

O was the second person to get on the Frisk wagon here. Granted, this is early in the round. Still, I can't see a mafia getting on a wagon against their fellow mafia and being the second vote here, with no other leading contenders for lynch. That is a risk they don't need to take.

This leaves Jo, Dsell, and Axxle2, in my suspicions.

The important thing here is that Jo and Dsell absolutely cannot both be mafia. Dsell voted for Jo more consistently than any other person did, which is quite a feat, being that I voted for Jo all the time. Also, Jo and Axxle2 probably can't both be mafia, because Axxle2 kept his vote on Jo all day round 1--back when he was Green Opal. Mind you, Jo very well could have been the lynch on Day 1. So Jo cannot be mafia along with either of these people.

O and Jo could both be mafia. And O could be mafia with Dsell or Axxle2, or both together. But Jo and Dsell cannot be mafia, and Jo and Axxle2/Opal cannot be mafia. Because O is mafia, Frisk is not.

Which means that if I still think Jo is mafia, I must look at Pops or Glooble. (SFS had a key vote parked on Jo Day 1, so he's out, and also for his claim, which I believe). There is a vote that casts some doubt on Pops/Jo (that's vote 2-13), and also I think O/Pops is not likely. And then of course the Jo/Glooble thing has the twin claim problem.

So I end up setting aside Jo. Which leaves me with Dsell and Axxle.

Interestingly enough, Dsell, Axxle2, and O never voted for each other at any point in the game, with one exception--Axxle2 was the 5th vote to kill O on Day 2. (I'm 95% sure of that, at least. Hopefully one of them can correct me if I'm wrong. I went through the whole thing and I'm pretty sure.)

On Day 1, Dsell and Axxle2 voted for the same person (Jo.) O voted for thoerel. None voted for the actual kill Axxle. Which is a great move, if you can pull it off. They very well might have. On Day 2, Dsell voted Jo, O voted Galzria, and Axxle2 was the 5th vote on O. I am willing to say that O was PROBABLY going to be killed by the time Axxle2 placed that vote. Though I admit this is the biggest wrench in the theory.

The evidence makes me more confident of Dsell, however, than Axxle2.

I must admit it is only recently that I began to even consider Dsell. He was not an Axxle1 voter. Also--and this is important--I thought he was a Vigilante, off a hunch. It seemed to me he would have killed theorel, because they argued. But now I'm not sure we have anymore Vigs.

To reiterate: Despite having more suspicion of Jo individually, Dsell seems the more likely mafia when I start looking to ferret out 2 more mafia members.

This overturns some of my earlier theories, but hey, I'm looking at new evidence. And I've been doing pretty well so far. Thoughts?

[Tables]

Okay, read everything that's happened day 3, and it's pretty interesting (when is it not). It more or less seems the only two constants are SFS and I are almost certainly town.

Looking over this day's notes, a few people jump out at me:

Frisk - lots of reasons have been given for him. Being on the wrong place of three wagons, O's treatment of him, and... I think that's it. But Joth's points make a lot of sense to me. Frisk had every reason to hammer and didn't, if he was scum, and as town had little reason to not hammer. O was fairly far down on his list, and waiting for a claim would certainly be sensible. I also don't want to place too much trust in what O did the first two days, as he could easily have been trying to set someone up. That's not to say it's useless to look at, but, I'd prefer evidence from elsewhere.

Joth - his play has been much better today, and he's made some good points (e.g. the above). I also feel some of the arguments he's made today - regarding Axxle and Robz, are believable. However this sudden shift in behavior, especially after O got lynched for somewhat crazy, is slightly jarring. He was also rolefishing for a Vig earlier (2370), which is a black mark.

Robz - the insistence there isn't a SK, when honestly, none of the best explanations we can posit are expecially good, strikes me as far too overconfident. In addition, after discussion started about Robz being a potential SK, which of course was bad for Robz, he immediately tried to change the subject. This came after he tried to quash discussion about their being a SK in the first place anyway, and both of these feel somewhat scummy. He's also, to some degree, been trying to control the discussion today. I feel like, until I started looking seriously at his posts today he was very likely town, but now, I'm much less certain. Could someone (not Robz himself) give me some good reasons for him being town, so I can weigh up what I know about him?

Pops: Despite my suspicion on Robz from the above, I do agree that Pops is very likely town. On the other hand, I also agree with Glooble's analysis regarding him, mainly that the post 2324 seemed overly defensive when he wasn't under fire. On the other hand, he barely defended himself when he WAS under fire, so I have no idea what to make of this.

SFS, Axxle, DSell and Glooble haven't struck out at me in a way I want to highlight (yet). For SFS, he's still likely town. Axxle and DSell I have my eye on, Glooble I also have my eye on, but less.

[Tables]

Robz, just two things to be careful of. Firstly, we may well only have two mafia members, so their might only be one more partner, not two. Secondly, you jump to very strong conclusions (stating things as impossible) based on information provided to us by the mafia (indirectly, but still). Even excluding that, you seem to overlook potential WIFOM plays which I fully expect O would be happy to perform, making 'obviously' bad plays for his teammates in order to clear them and the like. In short, I think you've laid out a good case for probabilities, but not certainties, and stating them that way makes me less comfortable with the arguments.

[Robz888]

Ah, Tables! Looks like I beat you to the big explanatory post by like a minute. Please read and respond to me. I'm close to voting for Dsell, for the reasons I give.

I much, much, much, much prefer voting and accusation pattern analysis then "so and so makes scummy arguments, blah." But anyway, I deeply regret quashing all the SK talk. You're right it's not nearly as implausible as I first thought. And I understand why it has reflected poorly on me.

Still, it's just not something I care about right now, and at several points in the game, people have acted like the SK is more important than finding mafia, when we don't even know that there is an SK.

When you say I feel scummy, though, I assume you mean you think I am SK. Which I understand. I hope you see that I can't really be a member of the mafia. I derailed the previous day's lynch of an innocent, Grujah, and called for the deaths of O and Galzria, which led us to kill O, who was mafia.

Anyway, thoughts on Dsell and what I said about who could be with who?

[Robz888]

Robz, just two things to be careful of. Firstly, we may well only have two mafia members, so their might only be one more partner, not two. Secondly, you jump to very strong conclusions (stating things as impossible) based on information provided to us by the mafia (indirectly, but still). Even excluding that, you seem to overlook potential WIFOM plays which I fully expect O would be happy to perform, making 'obviously' bad plays for his teammates in order to clear them and the like. In short, I think you've laid out a good case for probabilities, but not certainties, and stating them that way makes me less comfortable with the arguments.

Okay, then mentally change in your head every time I say "this" to "probably this." It's still very possible you and SFS are mafia. But I'm not seriously considering it, because I have better evidence in other places.

We can't have only 2 mafia for 15 people. Even 2 and an SK in 15 doesn't seem like much to me. Gotta be 3, I think.

I can see them voting for each other, but not at crucial-ish junctures, unless they have to. No way Opal/Axxle2 or Dsell join a bandwagon against fellow mafia Jo that was likely to kill him on Day 1.

[Dsell]

@Robz, I believe that I've only voted for 2 people (Jo and Galz) total in these three days, so I don't think it's fair to say that I'm suspicious based on having never voted for X and Y. Furthermore, I feel that O was buddying up to me somewhat day 1. He defended me on at least two occasions and was extremely suspicious of and voted for Theorel, who misrepresented me though I thought he was town. At the time I thought O was being rather more helpful than in previous mafias, but obviously he was looking to gain town points.

Robz, I also think it's dangerous that you're clearing C_F simply because O voted for him at one point. This was O's third mafia game, and I think that we can't necessarily trust the standard "scum" and "town" play. That's not to say that we can't analyze what people do, of course, but remember that the mafia WANT to do things that we would not expect mafia to do. ESPECIALLY when that mafia is O.

[Robz888]

Dsell, yeah, that's true. Fair points. I just don't see O laying a vote on Frisk at that time when we are just getting started on Day 2, and looking for bandwagons.

[Dsell]

Dsell, yeah, that's true. Fair points. I just don't see O laying a vote on Frisk at that time when we are just getting started on Day 2, and looking for bandwagons.

I'm not sure that I do either but I wouldn't put it past O. And while this is probably a point for C_F, there are also quite a few strikes against him. I don't know if he's the best choice for the lynch today but I don't feel super comfortable with him around, either. The problem I'm finding is that the more I go back and look at things the scummier people are looking to me.

[Robz888]

I don't think you are doing anything specifically to make yourself scummy, Dsell. But by process of elimination I am sort of closing in on you.

[Dsell]

I don't know what to say except that while your PoE is admirable (because I do not think you are mafia), it's wrong.

But of course this is what mafia would say too. Seriously though, re-examine some of your steps, asking yourself how the mafia would want to make those situations look, because your logic is shaky. You have to take into consideration the mafia giving themselves insurance.

[jotheonah]

Thinking Robz is SK doesn't necessarily make me distrust his scumhunting.

But if he's correctly identified the team, and he's been fingered, that's bad for his wincon.

Currently, IF there's an SK, the town consists of: 2 mafia, 1 SK, 6 town. We lynch mafia tonight. SK and mafia both kill town. Tomorrow we're at 1 mafia, 1 SK, 4 town. We lynch the other mafia, SK kills somebody. 1 SK, 3 town. We kill the SK. For an SK win, he needs us to mislynch at least once more, pretty much.

So, basically, if my earlier analysis is right and Robz is SK, it's in his best interest to lead us away from the mafia if he has identified them.

But I actually like his mafia analysis a lot and it rings "true Robz" to me.  So I either have to throw out my SK theory or distrust RObz's hunting.

Or, I could trust Robz's hunting and re-evaluate his SKness based on tomorrow's flip.  But I'd be more ready to vote Axxle (PoE + scumminess) then Dsell (PoE with no scumminess)

[Captain_Frisk]

Very Scummy:
Captain_Frisk - for how O's treated him throughout the game.

But of course this is what mafia would say too. Seriously though, re-examine some of your steps, asking yourself how the mafia would want to make those situations look, because your logic is shaky. You have to take into consideration the mafia giving themselves insurance.

I already tried that defense DSell - and it resulted in pops voting on me.

@Tables - I'll own up and admit that I was on the wrong place on 2 wagons (Axxle1, O - although if pops is mafia then I should get a rebate).  I'll even take a ding for my FoS @ Galzria - as I was highly suspicious of him.

I will not accept being on the wrong place on the Grujah wagon.  I did start it, but when I woke up the next morning and saw that the wagon looked pretty damn shady - I backed out.  As for that being scummy or not, its scummy to stay on and lynch innocent, its scummy to jump off and hope that the momentum carries it home... everything is scum.

However - look who immediately gave me grief:

Holy Probable Outcome, Batman! We almost killed the person I voted to kill! The horror!

Maybe I am overly sarcastic this morning, but this town is driving me up the wall. Let's lynch Grujah and get it over with. We can play the "which mafia are on that wagon?" game tomorrow.

I regret getting my hands dirty in the Galz-O debacle only because it's another freaking distraction for the most distractable town in the history of mafia and it's not a conversation that needs to be happening before we've seen a flip.

[Captain_Frisk]

Nothing in 3 hours? 

[jotheonah]

CF, we could start a little fight between us that would make us both look bad, if you want?

Personally, I think that starting a wagon, staying on it, and then being among the first to remove your vote after someone else (Robz) pretty much killed it does nothing for your credibility. That's a great move for someone who already knew Grujah was town. However, O (confirmed scum), Galzria (confirmed townie) and I all felt like Robz's "Stop now" post was suspicious - just as likely a mafia saving his partner as a townie trying to stop a mislynch.

I had my read and you had yours. You took your vote off, I tried to get people to put more on.  But neither of those things is de facto scummy. The fact that I was joined in my pursuit of Grujah by both a confirmed scum and a confirmed, respected townie proves it.

[Robz888]

@Jo, Your point about the Serial Killer does indeed make a lot of sense. And I know I've brought this suspicion on myself, so I can't fault you for thinking it at all.

I still think we probably have 2 more mafia, rather than a SK. But I have the luxury of knowing I'm not SK. If we do have SK, I have no idea who it is. It would mean that we either have a Roleblocker, or that Grujah never used his power. I really hope we have a Roleblocker, or something else. I suspect we might still have another power person out there. This could potentially help us.