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[Robz888]

But I don't suspect those people... I'm not sure but it doesn't seem like they are mafia...

[Galzria]

Robz, outside of your ridiculous argument about all the Mafia being amongst 4 people, can you please explain WHY you're so sure Grujah is town? "OMG he got a quick wagon" didn't stop you from thinking Jo was scum D1. Axxle's wain developed over 3 RL days (even though it was wrong). But the only argument you've actually made so far obviously didn't bother you about Jo when his wagon rolled to l-1 on D1. So what gives? Protecting much?

[Robz888]

I'm not really protecting Grujah. I think he did do things to merit suspicion, which is why I suspected him in multiple previous posts. He was a top suspect of mine previously, until Glooble and Jo moved way up in my estimation.

Indeed, I would be OKAY with seeing him killed, because hey, he might be mafia, and if he's not, it goes a long way toward proving my theory.

What gives me pause about Grujah is, as I've said, the fact that he rapidly accrued votes from 6 people, 5 of whom had voted to mislynch Axxle the day before. You and I both voted to kill Morgrim, and we both voted to kill Kuildeous in MII. Remember?

[Galzria]

But I don't suspect those people... I'm not sure but it doesn't seem like they are mafia...

But of that's true, it means ALL the Mafia are amongst 4 people. As I (which I admit, you cannot know) am not Mafia, that leaves just 3. Do you see why I would have a serious problem with the likelihood of this scenario? You've got to see that AT LEAST one of your "probably not scum" reads must be wrong.

[Galzria]

I'm not really protecting Grujah. I think he did do things to merit suspicion, which is why I suspected him in multiple previous posts. He was a top suspect of mine previously, until Glooble and Jo moved way up in my estimation.

Indeed, I would be OKAY with seeing him killed, because hey, he might be mafia, and if he's not, it goes a long way toward proving my theory.

What gives me pause about Grujah is, as I've said, the fact that he rapidly accrued votes from 6 people, 5 of whom had voted to mislynch Axxle the day before. You and I both voted to kill Morgrim, and we both voted to kill Kuildeous in MII. Remember?

Yes, and I made it quite clear I did NOT want you to. I wanted you to go after Jo instead.

[Robz888]

But I don't suspect those people... I'm not sure but it doesn't seem like they are mafia...

But of that's true, it means ALL the Mafia are amongst 4 people. As I (which I admit, you cannot know) am not Mafia, that leaves just 3. Do you see why I would have a serious problem with the likelihood of this scenario? You've got to see that AT LEAST one of your "probably not scum" reads must be wrong.

At least one of my "probably not scum" reads IS wrong, probably. But I don't know which one. And I don't have any evidence for which one. So I would rather shoot for mafia in the small group of people I highly suspect than in the moderate sized group of people I don't particularly suspect. Cant you see that?

[Robz888]

I'm not really protecting Grujah. I think he did do things to merit suspicion, which is why I suspected him in multiple previous posts. He was a top suspect of mine previously, until Glooble and Jo moved way up in my estimation.

Indeed, I would be OKAY with seeing him killed, because hey, he might be mafia, and if he's not, it goes a long way toward proving my theory.

What gives me pause about Grujah is, as I've said, the fact that he rapidly accrued votes from 6 people, 5 of whom had voted to mislynch Axxle the day before. You and I both voted to kill Morgrim, and we both voted to kill Kuildeous in MII. Remember?

Yes, and I made it quite clear I did NOT want you to. I wanted you to go after Jo instead.

Fine, but the mafia CAN win by pooling their votes for mostly the same people...

[Axxle]

*continues eating popcorn*

Robz, watch out behind you! *Galz swings axe*

Galz is being incredibly stubborn in trying to twist Robz's statements.

[Galzria]

But I don't suspect those people... I'm not sure but it doesn't seem like they are mafia...

But of that's true, it means ALL the Mafia are amongst 4 people. As I (which I admit, you cannot know) am not Mafia, that leaves just 3. Do you see why I would have a serious problem with the likelihood of this scenario? You've got to see that AT LEAST one of your "probably not scum" reads must be wrong.

At least one of my "probably not scum" reads IS wrong, probably. But I don't know which one. And I don't have any evidence for which one. So I would rather shoot for mafia in the small group of people I highly suspect than in the moderate sized group of people I don't particularly suspect. Cant you see that?

This. This is fine. But you haven't been saying this until now. Look at my post prior to joining Grujah's wagon. I believed there was a likely Mafia (or two) there as well. I wasn't GOING to vote until Axxle's actions (or lack thereof).

So: Jo, C.F., Pops (shared Axxle's D1 wagon),  O and Glooble.

Glooble's play was VERY suspicious as bussing. He hopped on early, came back, and found his partner at L-1. Your post have him a perfect reason to jump ship without waiting for your detailed post.

Pops you know how I feel.

Jo I would be happy to lynch

C.F. Has been very active, but shadowy. If Jo flips Mafia, I would HIGHLY suspect him. Otherwise, I just have a town feel for.

That leaves O... Which I admit, I have trouble reading. Similar to how you've claimed difficulty reading me. I can't point to a post where I think he pro-town tells (unlike with you), but I there are, to me, SO MANY people I feel better about.

Me - Well, if I had been lynched over my case on Pops I would've been fine because it would (I feel) likely lead to a Mafia death afterwards. If I get lynched over THIS however, I will NOT be happy, because it sets YOU up to fall, and I don't think you're scum, so the town losses two members, not counting NK's.

So... Yeah. That's my thoughts on the members of your "theory".

[Tables]

I'm looking at the names on the lists so far, and it's interesting. Ideally I'd like DSell and Frisk's opinions, but I'll continue as is for now.

I'll also point out I've simplified the lists slightly, to a binary system (high/low). If you dislike how I simplified what you said, point it out and I'll see how if affects things. I'm also not going to bother formatting this because, lazy, but you should get the gist of it (first name is the user, remaining names are the people they wanted to vote, in the order they gave).

Galz   Pops   Joth   Axxle   Grujah   Glooble   DSell
Dsell                  
Robz   Galz   O   Joth   Grujah      
Frisk                  
O   Pops   Joth   Glooble   Grujah      
Glooble   O   Grujah   Pops   Galz   Axxle   
Pops   Galz   O   Grujah   Axxle2      
Tables   O   Joth   Pops   Grujah      
Grujah   Axxle   O   Glooble   Joth      
Joth   Axxle   Grujah   Pops   Galz   O   
SFS   Joth   Grujah            
Axxle   Galz   O   Grujah   Joth   Glooble   Pops

Firstly everyone that's submitted a list except Grujah is happy with him being lynched. This makes me more confident he's town, as either the mafia have decided they're happy to bus him, or the mafia know he's somewhat scummy and can easily make him look suspicious. ... Did I mention the dream I had a few days/week ago? This is remarkably like that scenario. Of the two options, the second seems far more likely - there's no especially good case against Grujah except, he's been lurking.

The next two highest are Joth and O. Joth isn't a candidate of Pops (who gave a good reason for not wanting to lynch Joth (today) and Glooble (who is of course the twinclaim). O isn't a candidate of Galz or SFS, neither of whom have given good reasons for not putting him on (hardly surprising, as he hasn't been the focus of discussion for good chunks of two days...). This makes me somewhat uncomfortable - Galz isn't one of my scumreads and neither is SFS, so by my own logic this would likely make the mafia be trying to egg an O lynch on.

Next are Galz and Pops - notably who both put each other first on their lists (I don't know whether their lists were fully ordered though). I think I said this before of them, but I feel like they're two town members getting at each other's throats with the mafia pushing them. But... only Glooble, Axxle and Joth listed both as suspects (and Axxle has Galz top, Pops bottom). So if the mafia are pushing for suspicion onto both of them, they're being very careful, or otherwise are some of the three listed people. I'd actually be willing to cede one is likely mafia (and I personally think Pops as mentioned), but unlikely both.

Axxle is also there on 5, interestingly with the two most frequently elected candidates putting him top, and lower elected candidates putting him bottom.

I think I'm going to try and re-analyse this tomorrow afternoon, although that really doesn't give us much time. But for now (at risk of being accused of casting the first stone) I think O is probably the best candidate. He's not unanimously chosen and is the highest chosen excluding those, and of those electing him, he's the first or second pick 6 times out of 7.

[Galzria]

*continues eating popcorn*

Robz, watch out behind you! *Galz swings axe*

Galz is being incredibly stubborn in trying to twist Robz's statements.

More scum lies. Are you incapable of understanding "I don't think you're Mafia and could point to a single, particular, pro,town post you made"? Or is it just convenient to try and posh two townies to do your work for you?

[Dsell]

Oh. My. Gosh there are a lot of new pages.

Hey guys I'm back from vacation. I haven't read yet and I'm really tired after a long day in the car, but I will start reading tonight and try to get a substantive post in hooopefully tomorrow and then get back in the swing of things.

[Axxle]

*continues eating popcorn*

Robz, watch out behind you! *Galz swings axe*

Galz is being incredibly stubborn in trying to twist Robz's statements.

More scum lies. Are you incapable of understanding "I don't think you're Mafia and could point to a single, particular, pro,town post you made"? Or is it just convenient to try and posh two townies to do your work for you?

r u saying that? I honestly not cant tell.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm looking at the names on the lists so far, and it's interesting. Ideally I'd like DSell and Frisk's opinions, but I'll continue as is for now.

I'd like to re-iterate that I don't agree with this if we don't have a plan on how to lynch.  I think towngalz also once had issue with things like this - but no time to look it up - interesting that he isn't complaining today. 

In order:

Want to lynch
Pops - My #1 suspect.  I have a strong feeling that he is either mafia, or my #2 is.  If he flips town - I stronly want to lynch #2 tomorrow.
Galz - My #2 only because I've been wrong about him before, and because of the 2 of them, I'd rather have him alive and pops dead, than the other way around.
Joth - my vote is on him now - I do think there is a reasonable chance that he is mafia, and flipping him will reduce alot of noise from the system if he is not.  If he is Mafia - then a big ol FOS @ #2.  He could have stopped acting crazy a long time ago... and has continued to avoid doing so.

Maybe Willing to lynch
RobZ - Do not like this recent trend of angry posting.
O - O will never be clear in my book if he continues to play this way.
Axxle2 - my reasons for lynching him feel similar to Axxle1 - so I'm skeptical.  Smart Axxle-mafia-play, or just standard Axxleplay?

Likely unwilling to lynch
Dsell - not enough information
Grujah - Do not like that bandwagon
Glooble - Will not vote to lynch him before Jonah.
Tables - semicleared by SFS.  I hope mafia kills one of them tonight to clear this up.
SFS- ....

Will not lynch under any circumstances
Captain_Frisk.  Policy statement for ALL FUTURE MAFIA GAMES - LYNCH ME IF I EVER VOTE FOR MYSELF.

[popsofctown]

O lynch is go lynch

[jotheonah]

Vote: Galzria

The logic of his arguments is not up to snuff lately. For instance, he keeps saying to Robz that it doesn't make sense to be suspicious of the Grujah bandwagon but not of my Day 1 bandwagon, even though Robz has laid out the substantial differences between those wagons (including (A) the similarities between that and the Axxle1 wagon and (B) the fact that this wagon built much faster). There are other things too. He seems to feel like he can make Robz's theory crazy by repeating that it's crazy enough times.  Digging in + ignoring arguments = scummy, especially for Galz.

Not loving O either right now. But getting the scummiest vibe from G-money lately.

[Galzria]

Vote: Galzria

The logic of his arguments is not up to snuff lately. For instance, he keeps saying to Robz that it doesn't make sense to be suspicious of the Grujah bandwagon but not of my Day 1 bandwagon, even though Robz has laid out the substantial differences between those wagons (including (A) the similarities between that and the Axxle1 wagon and (B) the fact that this wagon built much faster). There are other things too. He seems to feel like he can make Robz's theory crazy by repeating that it's crazy enough times.  Digging in + ignoring arguments = scummy, especially for Galz.

Not loving O either right now. But getting the scummiest vibe from G-money lately.

You need to work on your reading comprehension mate. I've NEVER said that Grujah's wagon wasn't suspicious. I've said the exact OPPOSITE, many times, most recently on this very page. Either your being ignorant of that on purpose, or you need to go back and  reread very carefully.

Second, I compared Grujah's wagon to yours D1 because they DID roll just as quickly to L-1, but Robz had no problem with it when it was your head on the chopping block so quickly. The change in attitude struck me, and I was curious as to why.

I've also never said there is no merit in looking at Axxle's wagon. There are two people on both wagons I would be happy to lynch, with a decent feeling for hitting scum on: Pops, and You.

Robz's original argument WAS crazy. He's since dialed it back and admitted that he's probably got at least one read wrong. Saying "there is probably a Mafia amongst these 4" is different than saying "I really don't suspect these 8, so I think most of the Mafia are amongst these 4". He was standing by the second for the longest time, which made NO sense. It's ridiculous to think you've pegged the entire Mafia team D2 - and it's even more ridiculous to make that read based on the entire Mafia team voting together D1 and D2. It would be the greatest OMGUS play I've ever seen. Even in the smaller M-II game, with fewer Mafia, I did NOT want Robz on the same lynch as me D2. To believe 3+ would do so here is just... Well, crazy.

But as long as he's willing to admit that he's probably wrong on at least one of his reads, then yes, I agree that there was probably a Mafia (maybe two) on Grujah's wagon.

[Glooble]

I want to hear from DSell. He's been gone for a while, which will give him a different perspective. Maybe something will pop out at him that we missed while it was going on.

[jotheonah]

I still don't like the way you're arguing here, Galz.  You're repeating points instead of expounding on them. You have this affectation of "if you believe this you're just dumb" which I don't read as accurate, and I therefore read as an emotional manipulation of the argument.

[Galzria]

I still don't like the way you're arguing here, Galz.  You're repeating points instead of expounding on them. You have this affectation of "if you believe this you're just dumb" which I don't read as accurate, and I therefore read as an emotional manipulation of the argument.

There's really nothing left to say. At this point your being intentionally oblivious to the explanations. You, along with Axxle, are the two doing their absolute best to ignore what was ACTUALLY said, and seem intent on trying to keep Robz and myself arguing. For my part, I've at least reached a point where I believe what Robz is now saying is fair, so I'm not going to but into your attempts to keep townies arguing.

[Galzria]

Buy into*

[jotheonah]

You're right at least on one point. There's nothing more to say. You don't argue with scum, you try to convince others about them. And I've said my piece.

I don't like Galz's play lately. It's out of character.

[Captain_Frisk]

O lynch is go lynch

You ask us to put together a list - directly ignore questions on how we should use it - then you disappear for a while, and this is what you come back with?

Can't post more - have company for dinner - but seriously!

[jotheonah]

It's like ~16 hours til deadline. Volt, can we get a Vote Count?

[Glooble]

Well, I wanted to wait for DSell to weigh in, but we are getting up to the wire here. I, for one, feel very few qualms about this.

Vote: O

He's been giving me bad vibes all game, and has the best chance of a consensus being reached on him.