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[Dsell]

I never said the role claim was a good strategy. Those are your words. I said that I didn't see how it was a bad strategy. I asked people to explain that and they did. Later, I started referring to it as a mistake - deferring to the general wisdom that it's bad strategy. What is a mistake other than a bad strategy you didn't realize was bad at the time?

Just to be clear, in that post did you mean to reveal yourself as VT or was it an accident?

[jotheonah]

Because I wasn't thinking of a VT claim as a role claim per se (it's just what everyone is assumed to be) it didn't even register as a controversial thing when I posted it. I just wanted to say "hey, now that I think about it I'm ok with being lynched if it helps the town informationally"

In that statement, if you believe it, is kind of an inherent VT claim, because why would a power role townie be ok with being lynched? So the making it explicit was a mistake, but, like, if you imagine that post without the role claim, it basically reads the same to me.

Does that answer your question?

Either way - bad decision dinosaur. My town strategy was pretty much to see what would happen if I didn't self-censor at all, on the theory that the mafia would self-censor a lot so doing the opposite would make me look townish. I think the moral of the story is no, that doesn't work.

[Dsell]

@jo

Yes, it answers my question, but I'm still not sure that I believe it. It just sounded to me like you were sometimes saying it was an accident and sometimes saying "well it was my strategy and it doesn't matter either way." I wasn't clear on the point, so I wanted an official statement.

[Tables]

Okay, read up to now again (no idea how my last post actually managed to get through, the forum was crapping out for me). The more I read Axxle's posts now, the more of a scum read I'm getting on him. Some of those recent posts (from page 36 onwards) seem to ignore suspicion on him first, and where it is answered, his defences seem very poor. Asides from some town things he did early in the game (stifling theory discussion, attempting to stifle humour), he's contributed not a lot with each post. I haven't done a full check, but I think the only time he's made relatively long posts has been when people have prompted him, which feels like he's trying to avoid saying too much (even if I'm incorrect about this, at least most of his longer posts have been following prods).

That said, the bandwagon on him developed quite quickly, and I'm not confident enough to place a vote yet, especially considering my haphazard internet access. Although (sorry, this is slightly stream of consiousness) the voters seemed to all have legitimate reasons for their votes, and none of the bandwagoners were especially notorious at all - Frisk if my records are correct hasn't placed anything but a first vote on someone, until Axxle, Joth is Joth, Pops hasn't been bandwagoning at all, and I think that leaves SFS as the only one I'm really interested in.

[Glooble]

Okay, so going over the development of this Axxle bandwagon, I am starting to see people's points. His voting record makes him a very good scum candidate - he jumps on both bandwagons, at the best possible time to not draw attention - too early and ou're "leading the charge", too late and it looks like you're just trying to hammer before the town wises up. I imagine this is how Mafia reacts when a bandwagon develops on a townie - get your vote in before it loses steam, maybe help pump it up, make it look like the case is gaining momentum, etc.
The things that I said early on made him read very town to me are now looking like obviously calculated moves intended to gain allies. Posting articles for people to read does shape how many town members, especially those new to the game, will scum hunt in a particular way, which I originally thought was a poor mafia move, but it might be a brilliant one - if a significant number of townies are looking for particular scum tells, all the scum have to do is avoid those tells. Trying to make the town's procedures conform to a certain standard makes it much easier for scum to hide for the rest of the game, while also making Axxle look like a hero.
With potentially four scum, conventional wisdom says six votes is close to putting us in hammer territory. So casting vote six implies a level of conviction I'm still not comfortable with quite yet. I am close. If any Axxle voters have more concrete evidence to offer up, I will likely vote that way.

Pre-post edit: I was writing this up at the same time as Tables' post, and we seem to be reaching similar conclusions. Do with that what you will.)

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk if my records are correct hasn't placed anything but a first vote on someone, until Axxle, Joth is Joth, Pops hasn't been bandwagoning at all, and I think that leaves SFS as the only one I'm really interested in.

I can confirm that this is correct.  I feel alot more comfortable starting a vote on someone, because I know this is for my own personal suspicions, rather than potentially a mafia manipulator, and the 1st vote is alot safer than a later, from a "how much time do I have to monitor the situation just in case it gets out of control"

As for speed - I would say its been slower, but that just might be the forum downtime  Galz started banging this drum @ post 760, which was 2.5 days ago.  We're now almost 200 posts later.  The J stuff all seemed to pile on faster, but I'd have to go back and check.  We're also getting stuck @ 5 votes, instead of 6.

[Captain_Frisk]

So casting vote six implies a level of conviction I'm still not comfortable with quite yet. I am close. If any Axxle voters have more concrete evidence to offer up, I will likely vote that way.

Take your time - we are truly in no rush.  I would also be wary of casting vote #6 as well.

So - we have some defenders.  RobZ, O, DSell - who are all unconvinced of the "case" against Axxle.

Can you provide anything that gives a town read on Axxle?  Any examples of what you would consider to be pro town play?

I'm with Galz (spider sense tingling!) that J is not off the hook - but I would assume that with at least 11 town, if we lynched Axxle AND he flips town, he'd get a strong consideration for some night time actions.

[O]

So casting vote six implies a level of conviction I'm still not comfortable with quite yet. I am close. If any Axxle voters have more concrete evidence to offer up, I will likely vote that way.

Take your time - we are truly in no rush.  I would also be wary of casting vote #6 as well.

So - we have some defenders.  RobZ, O, DSell - who are all unconvinced of the "case" against Axxle.

Can you provide anything that gives a town read on Axxle?  Any examples of what you would consider to be pro town play?

I'm with Galz (spider sense tingling!) that J is not off the hook - but I would assume that with at least 11 town, if we lynched Axxle AND he flips town, he'd get a strong consideration for some night time actions.

The fact that Axxle has 5 votes against him with like.. absolutely no case against him.

Also, I found his mafia theory discussion pretty townish, even if I disagree with it.

[Dsell]

Can you provide anything that gives a town read on Axxle?  Any examples of what you would consider to be pro town play?

After looking at a bunch of Axxle's posts, I don't really have any examples of "really pro-town" play. I'm certainly not convinced that he's town but I'm also really unconvinced that he's mafia. I could conceivably see myself voting for him if a really strong case is made or if he says something that strikes me wrong, but at this point I wouldn't feel right about voting for him because I cannot justify voting for someone who I think is probably town over someone I feel strongly to be mafia.

[Dsell]

So basically, C_F, no I can't provide anything that makes me read Axxle as town. I definitely don't mean to defend him but I don't see what makes his case so strong.

[Dsell]

Oops, *I don't see what makes the case against him so strong.

[Robz888]

So casting vote six implies a level of conviction I'm still not comfortable with quite yet. I am close. If any Axxle voters have more concrete evidence to offer up, I will likely vote that way.

Take your time - we are truly in no rush.  I would also be wary of casting vote #6 as well.

So - we have some defenders.  RobZ, O, DSell - who are all unconvinced of the "case" against Axxle.

I wouldn't say that I am 'unconvinced' of the case against Axxle. I'm just not really sure what the case is in the first place, other than his vote switching. And I am convinced of the case against Jo.

[jotheonah]

This keeps happening:

Everyone who's voting for Axxle: "This is my case against Axxle"
O and RObz: "I don't get it. What's the case against Axxle?"

O and Robz, what don't you get here? Many people are answering your questions and you're acting as if they're not.

pops, where are you and what do you think about all this nonsense?

[O]

Because every "this is my case against Axxle" post seems to be a contentless post.

[jotheonah]

The posts contain words. Those words form sentences which have a meaning. That meaning is a rationale for voting for Axxle, a list of his plays that read as potentially scummy accompanied by explanations for why those plays make sense as mafia.

You can say those arguments are bad, that is one thing. But I am baffled by your assertion that the arguments are nonexistent. It seems quite odd.

[O]

Ok, here's the main argument I've gathered:

Axxle has been on 2x bandwagons, after coming out against bandwagons.

I have said things against bandwagons in the past. If I voted for Axxle, I would be on my second bandwagon.

Derp.

[Captain_Frisk]

. It seems quite odd.

We are talking about O here.

[Robz888]

No, I totally agree with O. Maybe I haven't been paying good enough attention--the forum being down really through me for a loop-- but it seems to me that every time I ask about why we suspect Axxle, I get a non-answer (like Jo's here). The fact that no one can explain why everyone thinks it's Axxle is a pretty good way to differentiate a mafia-driven bandwagon from an evidence-based one.

Right now, I feel like the case against Axxle is like the Jabberwocky project from Better Off Ted http://www.movieweb.com/tv/TEzL2CCG1TWHDE/jabberwocky

[jotheonah]

Could it just be that we're looking for a subtler case then you are?

Axxle's behavior matches the profile of a low-profile Day 1 mafia player, that's what we're all trying to say. He seems to say more than he actually says and he's opportunistic in his voting, even well couching it in other reasons.

If you're on the hunt for someone dripping lousy with scum tells, it looks like a meaningless case. But if you're looking for a competent, subtle Day 1 mafioso, Axxle seems to fit the bill perfectly.

[O]

If by subtler... you mean weaker to the point of being nonexistent.

Barring idiotic actions by Axxle it's hard to see myself being willing to hammer him.

[Galzria]

I don't at all believe that my case is "nonexistant", nor do I believe C.F.'s is. I'm not as familiar with the cases brought by J, SFS and... Theorel? Gloobel? I don't recall who has the 5th vote (as has been noted, the forum's rocky status has me slightly disorientated).

It's all well and fine if you wish to IGNORE the case, but saying it isn't there is flat out wrong. There have also been a few others who have voiced concerns our suspicions, but not voted. This is, in my opinion, the strongest "bandwagon" that's rolled, because it's the only one that  HASN'T seemed to have people jumping to get on just for the sake of a lynch. At this point, if Axxle were to flip Mafia, it would be extremely telling. If he were to flip town, there would still be good information to be gained.

In comparison, if J flips Mafia, we gain little info since he shot himself basically, and if he flips town, it really doesn't help us, since there's enough suspicion from nearly EVERYBODY that nobody would look particularly scummy in light of his death.

[Captain_Frisk]

I don't at all believe that my case is "nonexistant", nor do I believe C.F.'s is. I'm not as familiar with the cases brought by J, SFS and... Theorel? Gloobel? I don't recall who has the 5th vote (as has been noted, the forum's rocky status has me slightly disorientated).

Unfortunately, Pops was the 5th vote.  That leaves 2 people with arguments, J (who could probably walk up here with someones username & password to verify the contents of the PM from Volt and no-one would believe him), SFS who's reasons were something akin to "I agree with CF", and pops, who gave no reason.

[jotheonah]

I believe Glooble gave a reason, but no vote.

[Galzria]

I don't at all believe that my case is "nonexistant", nor do I believe C.F.'s is. I'm not as familiar with the cases brought by J, SFS and... Theorel? Gloobel? I don't recall who has the 5th vote (as has been noted, the forum's rocky status has me slightly disorientated).

Unfortunately, Pops was the 5th vote.  That leaves 2 people with arguments, J (who could probably walk up here with someones username & password to verify the contents of the PM from Volt and no-one would believe him), SFS who's reasons were something akin to "I agree with CF", and pops, who gave no reason.

Fair enough. Like I said, it's been a bit hard to follow. I know I've seen two separate cases though (mine and yours). Pops... I would like to hear more from on this, because he chimed in early that he thought Axxle was one of the scummiest people here. Outside of trying to dictate how everybody plays, and offering nothing himself, I'm curious what else Pops saw on Axxle.

[Galzria]

I believe Glooble gave a reason, but no vote.

Tables also said he was going to review, but believed Axxle was showing scummy behavior.