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[jotheonah]

No, that goes here. Although it is a little surreal flipping back and forth between two towns that want me dead. Maybe we should make it a race? Whoever kills me first wins?

[O]

I'm going to think hard before playing 2 simultaneous mafia games on this forum again...

[Captain_Frisk]

Well, as I'm likely to be lynched, and it's my own fault, and I deserve to be lynched, really, and all that stuff, I will go ahead and throw out my fourth and final suspect.

Unvote
Vote: Axxle

Just watch him. All through the game I've gotten this sense of needing to control the game, not wanting to let it get too chaotic. I know that doesn't always mean scum, but I've gotten a scummy vibe. And he's done a lot of things, down from posting those articles on, that serve the dual purpose of gaining our trust and regulating our behavior to his standards. For some reason that's where I want my vote to be when I flip town.

Now this one's more confusing, but probably still meant to be MIII....

Really?  Seems like it belongs here.  Axxle did post a n00b friendly article in the beginning of this game.  I don't know if I agree that he's been trying to control the game and mold our behavior to his standards.

[Robz888]

As my vote indicates, I am all for lynching Jo. We may have rung just as much useful info out of this round as we can. I say that because the convo is fizzling a bit, and I don't feel like enough good accusations are being tossed out. I'd really like a Night's worth of info to help us out at this point.

Why SHOULD we lynch jotheonah? for bad town play, we could scum hunt more

I think his bad town play is indicative of him being mafia, or at least as much an indicator as I am liable to get this round.

In MII, Jo fought tooth and nail against any accusations against him. The way he has sort of hung his head in shame, to me, is his best tactic for survival as mafia: just hope we forget about it. And there's a good chance we will.

[theorel]

@Insomniac
I'd actually like to hear some analysis from you.  Who are you suspicious of?  (I assume still Pops, anybody else?)  You asserted that there were three ahead of Jo, who are they?

@Robz:
I'm curious what sort of reaction you expect from town when under pressure.  This is the main reason I see no value from people's pressured responses.  It looks to me like:
If they ignore it and scumhunt, they're deflecting (mafia tell).
If they defend it or accuse back, they're defensive (mafia tell).
If they claim VT, they're mafia.
If they're silent, they're mafia.
If they crack, they're mafia.
Of course, those are all obvious mafia play, and mafia wouldn't be obvious, so they're town.
Even if you're not willing to respond openly, I hope you'll consider if there is actually a behavior you expect or if you change it to fit whatever fake-tells show up.

@SFS, when you get back: any suspicions?  I'm pretty sure you didn't think jo was mafia...so who is?

@O. What about you? still think this stage has no info?

@Grujah, you got anything to add?

--
I'd like to hear more opinions on Galzria's #760.  (and to add to it jo's recent vote)

Glooble will probably be around soon-ish, I'd like to hear from him.

Plenty of folks not weighing in yet...I'm going to be quiet until tonight.  I think I dominated the days discussion a bit too much (and for that I apologize).  So hard to resist responding...I can see why this thread gets so big so fast.

[Axxle]

I'm going to think hard before playing 2 simultaneous mafia games on this forum again...

At least not with the same players.

Just watch him. All through the game I've gotten this sense of needing to control the game, not wanting to let it get too chaotic.

I like having control and removing chaos in games like this where it's easy for it to get out of hand.

[Robz888]

@Robz:
I'm curious what sort of reaction you expect from town when under pressure.  This is the main reason I see no value from people's pressured responses.  It looks to me like:
If they ignore it and scumhunt, they're deflecting (mafia tell).
If they defend it or accuse back, they're defensive (mafia tell).
If they claim VT, they're mafia.
If they're silent, they're mafia.
If they crack, they're mafia.
Of course, those are all obvious mafia play, and mafia wouldn't be obvious, so they're town.
Even if you're not willing to respond openly, I hope you'll consider if there is actually a behavior you expect or if you change it to fit whatever fake-tells show up.

If they ignore it and scumhunt, I'm less likely to think they are mafia.
If they defend or accuse back, it depends on the tone.
If they claim VT, it's a townie bad move or a mafia move.
If they're silent, who knows.
If they crack, I'm likely to suspect mafia. It matters how crazy the crack is.
And I'll add one: If they defend themselves, appear to be losing the argument, and disengage from the debate... I expect they are mafia.

But I really, really, really don't like Jo's comment: "Should I just vote for myself?" It's not the same as what Morgrim did. Morgrim actually DID vote to kill himself, and that was crazy. Jo wants us to think he knows he has screwed up and is fine with dying, but he doesn't actually vote to die.

So yes, I see him as mafia, as best I can see anybody as mafia right now.

[popsofctown]

Joth isn't 50% likely to be scum.  Maybe like 25% after that weak Axxle poke.

It's that that's combined with the VT claim and the info in his wagon that matters.

Someone somewhere said something along the lines of "X is only 50% likely to be scum" and I wanted to point out that's not an only.  I usually understand and accept most of the lynches I participate in are 30% or 40% accurate and that that is good enough.

Well I've had some hot streaks, though.  If I was 30% or 40% accurate though, that would be ok.

[Dsell]

Why SHOULD we lynch jotheonah? for bad town play, we could scum hunt more

But that's just it...if we just put it down as bad town play and accept that he's a vanilla townie then he basically has a free pass from suspicion for the rest of the game. If we decide not to lynch him then it will be no surprise when he survives every night consistently. "Accidentally" claiming VT is a very smart mafia ploy because it is the perfect excuse for survival night after night. If it's true, the mafia will believe it and kill others who are more likely to be roles, and if it's false and he's mafia, well then the mafia's chance of winning just got MUCH better. Investigative roles could be used but in a closed (or is it open?) system like this game where we don't know which roles exist or how many there are, that can be incentive for mafia to falseclaim and say "yeah he's town" or "he's mafia, let's get him!"

It's not an airtight plan but my vote is going to stay put for now because I think jo is the best chance at hitting mafia we have, at least at this time. Town: please ask yourself if you think jo is that terrible of a player. I'll admit that it really looked like bad townie play to me but I just can't reconcile his background in debate and his overall good play with these catastrophic "blunders."

[jotheonah]

As my vote indicates, I am all for lynching Jo. We may have rung just as much useful info out of this round as we can. I say that because the convo is fizzling a bit, and I don't feel like enough good accusations are being tossed out. I'd really like a Night's worth of info to help us out at this point.

Why SHOULD we lynch jotheonah? for bad town play, we could scum hunt more

I think his bad town play is indicative of him being mafia, or at least as much an indicator as I am liable to get this round.

In MII, Jo fought tooth and nail against any accusations against him. The way he has sort of hung his head in shame, to me, is his best tactic for survival as mafia: just hope we forget about it. And there's a good chance we will.

MII was a small town, and I felt like it was REALLY IMPORTANT to stay alive, even as a VT. This time, it's a big town. I didn't set out to get lynched, but I made a series of increasingly terrible plays and realized I was the optimal day one lynch for the town, informationally. And also for metagame reasons I suppose. So the resignation is pro-town in this situation. The tooth-and-nail was pro-town in the MII context.

I get so high strung when I get really into defending myself. And in this game, I'm just not feeling it.  Briefly, when I did try to defend myself, it just made me more suspicious, so that didn't seem helpful. I AM town. But I've been playing really indefensibly. So I won't defend. You can either lynch me, and I will accept it and hope it's as informative as pops was saying it was, or keep me alive and, starting Day 2, I can try to pick up the pieces and play in a more orthodox way. It's really up to you all.

[Insomniac]

I'm going to think hard before playing 2 simultaneous mafia games on this forum again...

So not everyone who plays mafia is robz?

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm going to think hard before playing 2 simultaneous mafia games on this forum again...

So not everyone who plays mafia is robz?

I thought it was common knowledge that I am RobZ's main alternate account?

[Insomniac]

@theorel: I see your request, I will prepare a large post later tonight when I'm not at work

[Axxle]

Even if we don't lynch J today, he does not have a free pass for the rest of the game.  There are enough of us suspicious of him that he's going to have to tread lightly if he is mafia.  He can still make mafia tell just like any other mafia.

[Dsell]

@Robz:
I'm curious what sort of reaction you expect from town when under pressure.  This is the main reason I see no value from people's pressured responses.  It looks to me like:
If they ignore it and scumhunt, they're deflecting (mafia tell).
If they defend it or accuse back, they're defensive (mafia tell).
If they claim VT, they're mafia.
If they're silent, they're mafia.
If they crack, they're mafia.
Of course, those are all obvious mafia play, and mafia wouldn't be obvious, so they're town.
Even if you're not willing to respond openly, I hope you'll consider if there is actually a behavior you expect or if you change it to fit whatever fake-tells show up.

I do not like this analysis at all! You are basically acquitting anyone who is about to be lynched! Let me turn the question around and ask you: What sort of reaction do you expect from a mafia under pressure? If it is any of the reactions above (which you intended to be comprehensive), then it's obvious town play. But then you've just acquitted the mafia!

[Dsell]

Also, I'm leaving very soon and will be gone for several hours.

[theorel]

I do not like this analysis at all! You are basically acquitting anyone who is about to be lynched! Let me turn the question around and ask you: What sort of reaction do you expect from a mafia under pressure? If it is any of the reactions above (which you intended to be comprehensive), then it's obvious town play. But then you've just acquitted the mafia!

Alright, I said I wouldn't respond, but if this legitimately confusing it may be important to some people.  I do and will completely ignore what any person under pressure says.  If they defend themselves they're just as much mafia as they were before, or conversely just as much town.  If I have determined that you are likely mafia, and you go under pressure there is nothing YOU can say that will convince me otherwise, you can claim VT, you can suicide, you can roleclaim, I don't care, it's a move to try to get out of pressure, or temporary insanity induced by pressure.  Now someone else might make some points refuting evidence, pointing elsewhere, etc...but nothing you says will matter.  So, no acquitting, no condemning, you may as well be silent as pops, it's not going to influence my vote.

[Robz888]

I do not like this analysis at all! You are basically acquitting anyone who is about to be lynched! Let me turn the question around and ask you: What sort of reaction do you expect from a mafia under pressure? If it is any of the reactions above (which you intended to be comprehensive), then it's obvious town play. But then you've just acquitted the mafia!

Alright, I said I wouldn't respond, but if this legitimately confusing it may be important to some people.  I do and will completely ignore what any person under pressure says.  If they defend themselves they're just as much mafia as they were before, or conversely just as much town.  If I have determined that you are likely mafia, and you go under pressure there is nothing YOU can say that will convince me otherwise, you can claim VT, you can suicide, you can roleclaim, I don't care, it's a move to try to get out of pressure, or temporary insanity induced by pressure.  Now someone else might make some points refuting evidence, pointing elsewhere, etc...but nothing you says will matter.  So, no acquitting, no condemning, you may as well be silent as pops, it's not going to influence my vote.

But... why would you think like that? You don't expect townies and mafia to behave differently when confronted with death?

[Axxle]

But... why would you think like that? You don't expect townies and mafia to behave differently when confronted with death?

It sounds similar to what Galz is trying to do right now with votes on me, although to an extreme.

[popsofctown]

Joth, why do you want me to wait for tomorrow?  Give me content now.  Convince me you're Innocent Child with the scumhunting of a Cop and I will not lynch you today.

[theorel]

@Robz
Not noticeably, no.  Why would they? That's just straight-up bad play.

To clarify: I do expect different people to behave differently, but I don't expect different roles to behave differently.

And the kicker is that I do expect mafia and townies to react differently to a building lynch.  I expect townies to be a little more uncomfortable with it, because they don't really aren't 100% sure...maybe 50%, maybe 30%.  The mafia though are sure, and they're trying to convince others to do it too, with flimsy information and bad logic.  Now not all the time, obviously.  They want to be scum just enough to get away with it.  So a scum-tell to me is exactly that, trying to get away with scummy behavior, because they think they can.  So...I'll take my evidence for the 14 other people that weren't under pressure.  They did some interesting things, maybe you should look into it.

[jotheonah]

Joth, why do you want me to wait for tomorrow?  Give me content now.  Convince me you're Innocent Child with the scumhunting of a Cop and I will not lynch you today.

This would all be much easier if I were IC. I could just claim, ping, and go. But I think I see what you mean. If I want to reset as a sensible player, there's no reason to wait until tomorrow to do so. There is, however, reason to wait until I'm not at work and can do in-depth analysis instead of just casual posting.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

STARTED AFTER READING 866

@Theo - The only folks I've had my antennae raised on are Robz, Jo, and Axxle.

My first vote for Robz was because I was irked.  I unvoted and revoted for him over the issues I called him out on - it was my first hint of something amiss with anyone.

Jo I no longer know what to think of.  I posted about how I didn't read his comment concerning self-voting as a threat to self vote, but rather as a fairly pointed probing question to Pops (which I don't think.  No one has responded to that thought, so it was likely written off.  In addition, I didn't read his VT roleclaim the same way everyone else did either at first, but when I went back and re-read it, I DID agree that it is in fact a roleclaim.  When I voted for him, I did it entirely for the reason I specified.

I'm watching Axxle too, and have requested (in my post at #807) player opinions on Galzria's post at #760.  I think Galz may be on to something, but apparently no one else does, though echoed my request in your post at 854. It seems small, but small is all I've got, because the things that are BIG indicators (Jo's comment about self voting) inklings are all I have to go on at my skill level.

I've also asked for other clarifications and have not heard from the addressees. Maybe there is a pattern in that - perhaps Mafia feels it can ignore anything coming from me.  I should go back and tabulate, as I may have blindly hit on 2 or 3 good suspects.

[O]

@O. What about you? still think this stage has no info?

On who we're voting for? Yea, I do. I don't buy that J is actually mafia.

Currently my suspicions are still on Popsofctown and on Captain Frisk, with a lesser suspicion placed on SwitchedFromStarcraft

[Galzria]

But... why would you think like that? You don't expect townies and mafia to behave differently when confronted with death?

It sounds similar to what Galz is trying to do right now with votes on me, although to an extreme.

Because I want the rest of the towns opinion, not yours. I already know yours, don't I?