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[Captain_Frisk]

Note: Tables said he'd be out for 36 hours...so you're not going to get an answer to that question any time soon.

That's fine - I'm not especially worried about it.  I'm certainly not bad at Dominion, but this is very much a different beast - but I'm just not sure how I could read something by someone and say "Damn - that is some fine play - clearly this person is a master level mafia player"

[Robz888]

I am feeling an increasing town vibe from theorel.  Just look at all that original analysis.  Insane.

@J: Morgrim self voted to kill himself.  Of course that's not a mafia move.  And if he was doing so to try to save himself (some people tried to unvote) it might have actually worked.  I forget who was the second who self voted, can you remind me?

Galzria in M3.

Ok.

And J, you know what? Each self vote by town ended up in a town lynch. Imagine that! It's not a mafia move but it's also definitely anti-town. 

And just to let everyone know, I didn't say it before since I didn't want to add fuel to the theory fire, and the question of my wanting a quick lynch has come up.  I'm of the opinion that lynching town is worse than no lynch, but lynching someone that is 50% likely to be mafia and turns out to be town is better than no lynch.

What theorel says about DSell really bothers me, meaning I'm really doubting my J vote, so for now

Unvote

PEdit: and now it just looks like I'm just following everyone off the bandwagon, but let me be clear that J is still very much on my radar.

Well, I'm not getting off the bandwagon. I still feel like we have good reason to suspect Jo. What I like about my vote for Jo is it's based on hard evidence. He VT roleclaimed when there was no reason to do so. This hurts the town, because well we don't now if we believe him. But the mafia will believe him and know not to target him in the night, because they would rather kill a power townie. Then Jo asked whether he should vote for himself because he's bungled things. I've said this before, but it most closely reminds of TINAS in MI. Now, TINAS ended up being the Cop, that's true. But he was in a sense lying; he falsely claimed VT. And he was ready to go to the grave as a Cop. It worked out for him and for us, but... it was a crazy, crazy move. And I don't think that's what Jo is doing.

[theorel]

@Green_Opal:
I know I've said that I've got 10% mafia suspicions for jo, but these numbers are subject to change.  Based on current behavior, that's how I feel.  But, hey, I could be wrong.  But what about everyone else?  Even if jo is mafia, there's more mafia out there.  Who do you suspect?  Me for defending him?  Glooble for his partial defense?  SFS for being ready to throw him under the bus?

And then, consider, you know your bias (whatever gut-feelings may have caused it), so that means that you can overcome it, and try to look at the game through a different lens.  It's good that you're not being influenced by what I've said, it's valuable to the town.  But at this stage of the game, zeroing in on one player isn't going to help very much.

Note: I would be happiest if every player in the thread got up to at least 4 votes, because that means the town's really looking for scum, really considering their options, and really willing to question there beliefs in the face of information.

[Insomniac]

I am feeling an increasing town vibe from theorel.  Just look at all that original analysis.  Insane.

@J: Morgrim self voted to kill himself.  Of course that's not a mafia move.  And if he was doing so to try to save himself (some people tried to unvote) it might have actually worked.  I forget who was the second who self voted, can you remind me?

Galzria in M3.

Ok.

And J, you know what? Each self vote by town ended up in a town lynch. Imagine that! It's not a mafia move but it's also definitely anti-town. 

And just to let everyone know, I didn't say it before since I didn't want to add fuel to the theory fire, and the question of my wanting a quick lynch has come up.  I'm of the opinion that lynching town is worse than no lynch, but lynching someone that is 50% likely to be mafia and turns out to be town is better than no lynch.

What theorel says about DSell really bothers me, meaning I'm really doubting my J vote, so for now

Unvote

PEdit: and now it just looks like I'm just following everyone off the bandwagon, but let me be clear that J is still very much on my radar.

Well, I'm not getting off the bandwagon. I still feel like we have good reason to suspect Jo. What I like about my vote for Jo is it's based on hard evidence. He VT roleclaimed when there was no reason to do so. This hurts the town, because well we don't now if we believe him. But the mafia will believe him and know not to target him in the night, because they would rather kill a power townie. Then Jo asked whether he should vote for himself because he's bungled things. I've said this before, but it most closely reminds of TINAS in MI. Now, TINAS ended up being the Cop, that's true. But he was in a sense lying; he falsely claimed VT. And he was ready to go to the grave as a Cop. It worked out for him and for us, but... it was a crazy, crazy move. And I don't think that's what Jo is doing.

If the mafia always believe VT claims then they're horrible mafia and claiming VT is the best thing you can do if you are a power role...

[O]

Yeah, I guess this is the third time citing posts for me.  One of them was a direct challenge, the other two were both a "my intuition seems off from what I expect".  I really didn't expect DSell to be scummy when I started, so I felt like I had to keep reconfirming that it was happening.  And then, since I was already doing that for myself, I figured I'd just jot down the post numbers at the same time.

Be careful about DSell - O might call you a bad town for suspecting him, but I was happy to see someone else come to the same conclusion.

This is like the third or fourth misdirection of one of my posts that you've made. I was not commenting on your suspicion of Dsell, I was commenting on your bad logic relating to post counts.

Maybe you're just mad that I got you killed in M3? I don't know, but the way you only pass suspicion to me indirectly but refuse to accuse me feels scummy and makes me more suspicious of you. But you always seem suspicious of me anyways.

@Theorel, If "bandwagons" effectively prove that a player is not mafia, then we're never going to get to a day one lynch 

[O]

If the mafia always believe VT claims then they're horrible mafia and claiming VT is the best thing you can do if you are a power role...

Except it's really not. Not claiming at all is the best thing you can do for a power role.

[Green Opal]

Note: I would be happiest if every player in the thread got up to at least 4 votes, because that means the town's really looking for scum, really considering their options, and really willing to question there beliefs in the face of information.

Just to clarify, by this you're saying you're prefer it if everyone had reasoned suspicions about at least 4 players?

If so, that's a reasonable sentiment. I'm just not sure how realistic it is, especially during the first day of the game, when the only evidence to go on is so fragile.
Also, I wasn't trying to imply that I was disregarding any other players, just that jonah still seems by far the most likely to be scum to me. I haven't exactly collated my thoughts on the other players in a table like you and C_F have yet, but I might get to that at some point.

If I were to name 3 other people I'm most concerned about at the moment, it would probably be :
popsofcftown: Your play has just seemed designed to confuse throughout, with the exception of a few excellent clarifying posts.
Robz: You seem very intent on putting forward a very aggressive line in questioning people. That's certainly not a bad thing in and of itself, as it can fluster people and bring out mistake, but it just doesn't seem to line up with how I remember you reading as a townie/jailer in M1. To be fair it's also not reading as much of a mafia vibe as I got from you in M2 (Obviously I can't verify this, as I wasn't following the QT or anything), so that's why I'm not more actively suspicious yet.
Grujah: You've been very willing to join in bandwagons so far without particularly clear justification, which is one of the classic tells. Everything else you've posted has seemed quite reasonable to me though.

I'll admit I haven't really been using a 'Assuming x is mafia, what do other people's posts about x mean?' viewpoint yet, focusing more on getting a read on people's individual actions. I'll get back to that one

[theorel]

Another post inspired as writing to Green_Opal, but I figured I'd put it up separately.  This is a theory-post.  All is my opinion, take from it what you will.  Note: I can't see into your heads, maybe you're already thinking this way, if so, cool.  I'm not sure how strongly I was actually thinking this way before trying to formulate it, so, I'll say it anyways.

There have been a few votes so far of the sort that say "I want to see what will happen".  Starting votes on someone usually fall into this category as well, whether stated or not.  If you're townie, every vote should be this kind of vote, you should always be curious what will happen when you vote (if you're Robz and only like to accuse people, I suppose this applies to the throwing around of accusations).  So, you're about to place a vote on someone, and say, "I wonder what will happen, will a bandwagon develop?  Will someone jump off this bandwagon?  Will the accused crack and start spewing nonsense to dig himself into a deeper hole?".  Well you should consider, BEFORE you cast the vote and find out what happens, what do you expect to happen based on what you know?  And if that doesn't happen, what further steps should you take to verify whether you were wrong or something else happened.  In other words, form a hypothesis, use your action to test the hypothesis, and analyze the result.

Now, mafia is a psychological game, and you don't really have any idea how people will react.  Other things could happen to invalidate the test.  You don't have to disregard your hypothesis just because it didn't work out like you expected, and you shouldn't take your hypothesis as gospel truth just because one test worked out.  If your test fails, consider why it failed: was it a bad test, or a bad hypothesis?  If it succeeds, figure out another test.  The danger is that you'll take some action with some hypothesis, say "jo is mafia", and then see what happens.  Then whatever happens you'll read as a confirmation.  For example: did a bandwagon fail to materialize? ah he must be scum, and the mafia are redirecting...did a bandwagon show up? ah see he's scum, everyone agrees with me, I'm so smart.

You obviously shouldn't expose your test expectations, just use them to figure out whether you need to rethink things.

[Robz888]

Note: I would be happiest if every player in the thread got up to at least 4 votes, because that means the town's really looking for scum, really considering their options, and really willing to question there beliefs in the face of information.

Robz: You seem very intent on putting forward a very aggressive line in questioning people. That's certainly not a bad thing in and of itself, as it can fluster people and bring out mistake, but it just doesn't seem to line up with how I remember you reading as a townie/jailer in M1. To be fair it's also not reading as much of a mafia vibe as I got from you in M2 (Obviously I can't verify this, as I wasn't following the QT or anything), so that's why I'm not more actively suspicious yet.

I was pretty aggressive Round 1 of M1. I came after TINAS big time.

[theorel]

@Green_Opal: just the first line of your post.
No I'd be happiest if everyone received reasoned suspicions from at least 4 players.

@O: I will not be suspicious of a "bandwagon" that develops over the course of 3-4 days without any crazy over-reactionary posting involved.  We've got three weeks...we don't need to go from first vote to eighth vote in 24 hours.

[Galzria]

O, I don't think bandwagons themselves are bad. Quite the contrary. I think overly hasty bandwagons are bad, and very informative.

I'm not saying Jo doesn't have a lynch coming to him. TINAS almost got lynched for erratic play D1. Morgrim did get lynched for erratic play D1. And I got lynched for erratic play D1 (though everything I said was justified and true. ). Did all 3 end up being pro-town? Yes. Did all 3 deserve to be lynched for their play? Probably (though TINAS weaseled out of it). Should J go the same route? I don't have a problem with it. Do I think he's town? Yes, most likely.

So I have no problems looking into that bandwagon NOW, instead of just waiting around for day 2 (or to be NK). So there you are. By all means, I think J ought to die for his actions. If nothing else as a policy kill to not try and double-bluff your way through D1. But I'm happy letting others enforce it if they see fit.

[Insomniac]

AS MAFIA III IS ONGOING, PLEASE REFRAIN FROM TALKING ABOUT IT HERE, DEAD OR NOT

[Green Opal]

Note: I would be happiest if every player in the thread got up to at least 4 votes, because that means the town's really looking for scum, really considering their options, and really willing to question there beliefs in the face of information.

Robz: You seem very intent on putting forward a very aggressive line in questioning people. That's certainly not a bad thing in and of itself, as it can fluster people and bring out mistake, but it just doesn't seem to line up with how I remember you reading as a townie/jailer in M1. To be fair it's also not reading as much of a mafia vibe as I got from you in M2 (Obviously I can't verify this, as I wasn't following the QT or anything), so that's why I'm not more actively suspicious yet.

I was pretty aggressive Round 1 of M1. I came after TINAS big time.

True, but the difference is here you've been all over multiple people. Admittedly there's been a lot more said here than there, so I might be overstating things.

[Voltgloss]

AS MAFIA III IS ONGOING, PLEASE REFRAIN FROM TALKING ABOUT IT HERE, DEAD OR NOT

Confirming this.  Please keep M-III out of the discussion, folks (at least while it is ongoing).

[Galzria]

AS MAFIA III IS ONGOING, PLEASE REFRAIN FROM TALKING ABOUT IT HERE, DEAD OR NOT

Sorry, my statement of analysis was against all games D1 lynches, of which one I was a part of (and the comment about myself was in jest) - Still, I'll be more careful.

[Robz888]

Note: I would be happiest if every player in the thread got up to at least 4 votes, because that means the town's really looking for scum, really considering their options, and really willing to question there beliefs in the face of information.

Robz: You seem very intent on putting forward a very aggressive line in questioning people. That's certainly not a bad thing in and of itself, as it can fluster people and bring out mistake, but it just doesn't seem to line up with how I remember you reading as a townie/jailer in M1. To be fair it's also not reading as much of a mafia vibe as I got from you in M2 (Obviously I can't verify this, as I wasn't following the QT or anything), so that's why I'm not more actively suspicious yet.

I was pretty aggressive Round 1 of M1. I came after TINAS big time.

True, but the difference is here you've been all over multiple people. Admittedly there's been a lot more said here than there, so I might be overstating things.

Yeah, and there's almost twice as many people!

[theorel]

@Green_Opal:
Great post.  I think town is best served by looking around at lots of people.  Hopefully we can combine our reads and come up with the actual scum.  (Also it's relatively difficult for scum to look at everybody, because they have to remove the information they already have about who's mafia and who isn't.  It's not like super-hard (they should know who's suspicious so they know who to night-kill and who to go after during the day), but it's something.).

I also apologize for the references to Galzria in MIII.  I'll do my best to make sure it doesn't happen again.

[popsofctown]

At the risk of talking about mafia theory, you know that 50% is like, amazing, best scumhunt ever odds, right?  With 15 players and 3 mafia, if we alternated mislynching and lynching, we'd get

3 mafia, 10 townies D2
2 mafia, 9 townies D3
2 mafia, 7 townies D4
1 mafia, 6 townies D5
1 mafia, 4 Townies D6

And on day six the townies win, with a mislynch cushion unused.

If there are 4 mafia, we probably ought to have some good PRs etc. 

[Dsell]

Aside from Jo, which was just ugh, I haven't really seen anything that has given me any real red flags. By now I expect there will be some random accusations and lots of voting and unvoting (read: already happening) and eventually we will get somewhere. I like having extra time, to comment on that debate. I don't want to try to lynch too early. In my EXPERIENCE (*cough*MIII*cough*) ahem... being on a deadline got us all to vote but it made things really heated and desperate. I'd rather have too much time than too little. Don't have to use it all.

This is post #203 from me. Yep, I'm all for having plenty of time, not being on a strict deadline. I love that we have three weeks here rather than 1 week like in MIII. But I haven't changed my position at all! "I don't want to try to lynch too early." A too-early lynch is nothing but anti-town. It's just almost inevitable that there will be mafia aboard the bandwagon. That's why I pulled away from the pops bandwagon even though I really wanted to vote. It didn't feel right, it built up too fast and it was too early.

Theorel, you're accusing me of changing my position and now favoring an early lynch. This is not at all true, I don't want an early lynch! But we are no longer in the early stages of this game. We have almost thirty-five pages already because this game has been very accelerated. The fact that nearly everyone has cast one or more serious votes should be proof that it is no longer too soon for a lynch. So the thrust of your argument against me is just wrong, and I'm really struggling to see where you're getting this suspicion from. Yes, this game is moving faster than I thought it would (we are nearly to MIII's post count after just 48 hours!!) and frankly I was the very last person to cast a serious vote (#730) because I want to take time to consider and reread what people have said with SO much content. However, I feel rock-solid in my jo vote, especially because he's deciding to lay low now that things are dying down.

[Voltgloss]

Glooble, Robz, and Insomniac searched the Estate Courtyard for the elusive portcullis key.  No cobblestone was left unturned.  However, their task was complicated by the fact that, every time someone moved three cobblestones, someone else accidentally moved one of them back.

Vote Count 1-10

popsofctown (2) - Insomniac, O
Grujah (2) - Glooble, jotheonah
jotheonah (3) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell
Dsell (2) - Captain_Frisk, theorel
Glooble (1) - popsofctown
Axxle (1) - Galzria

Not Voting {4} - Tables, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

[Captain_Frisk]

At the risk of talking about mafia theory, you know that 50% is like, amazing, best scumhunt ever odds, right?  With 15 players and 3 mafia, if we alternated mislynching and lynching, we'd get

I know that there are lots of more "exciting" things happening right now so this thread is dead - lets see if we can get it going again.

Pops - who were you directing this at?  Is this suggesting that we proceed forward with a J lynch because he's got a 50% chance of being mafia?

[Robz888]

As my vote indicates, I am all for lynching Jo. We may have rung just as much useful info out of this round as we can. I say that because the convo is fizzling a bit, and I don't feel like enough good accusations are being tossed out. I'd really like a Night's worth of info to help us out at this point.

[Insomniac]

As my vote indicates, I am all for lynching Jo. We may have rung just as much useful info out of this round as we can. I say that because the convo is fizzling a bit, and I don't feel like enough good accusations are being tossed out. I'd really like a Night's worth of info to help us out at this point.

Why SHOULD we lynch jotheonah? for bad town play, we could scum hunt more

[jotheonah]

Well, as I'm likely to be lynched, and it's my own fault, and I deserve to be lynched, really, and all that stuff, I will go ahead and throw out my fourth and final suspect.

Unvote
Vote: Axxle

Just watch him. All through the game I've gotten this sense of needing to control the game, not wanting to let it get too chaotic. I know that doesn't always mean scum, but I've gotten a scummy vibe. And he's done a lot of things, down from posting those articles on, that serve the dual purpose of gaining our trust and regulating our behavior to his standards. For some reason that's where I want my vote to be when I flip town.

[O]

Well, as I'm likely to be lynched, and it's my own fault, and I deserve to be lynched, really, and all that stuff, I will go ahead and throw out my fourth and final suspect.

Unvote
Vote: Axxle

Just watch him. All through the game I've gotten this sense of needing to control the game, not wanting to let it get too chaotic. I know that doesn't always mean scum, but I've gotten a scummy vibe. And he's done a lot of things, down from posting those articles on, that serve the dual purpose of gaining our trust and regulating our behavior to his standards. For some reason that's where I want my vote to be when I flip town.

Now this one's more confusing, but probably still meant to be MIII....